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Article
Publication date: 29 November 2023

Thirawut Phichonsatcha, Nathasit Gerdsri, Duanghathai Pentrakoon and Akkharawit Kanjana-Opas

Indigenous knowledge is an essential element for unveiling the evolutionary journey of socio-culture phenomena. One of the key challenges in foresight exercises is to incorporate…

Abstract

Purpose

Indigenous knowledge is an essential element for unveiling the evolutionary journey of socio-culture phenomena. One of the key challenges in foresight exercises is to incorporate social-culture issues such as culture, lifestyle and behavior (referred as indigenous knowledge) into the study. However, the statistical trends of those factors tend to be either not available or limited unlike the population or economic related factors. The purpose of this study is to present the use of valuable data from indigenous knowledge to enhance the foresight exercise through the better understanding of social dynamics and changes.

Design/methodology/approach

The fragmented form of indigenous knowledge is analyzed and converted into a structured data format and then interpreted to unveil the evolutionary journey of socio-cultural phenomena. This study applies a scenario development method to visualize the results of foresight by comparing before and after the integration of indigenous knowledge. Finally, an assessment was conducted to reflect the value enhancement resulting from the integration of indigenous knowledge into the foresight process.

Findings

With the proposed approach, the foresight study on the future development of Thai food was demonstrated. The findings of this study show that the use of indigenous knowledge on eating behavior, cooking style and food flavor helps improve the alternative scenarios for the future development of Thai foods.

Practical implications

Indigenous knowledge can be applied to develop plausible scenarios and future images in foresight exercises. However, by nature, indigenous knowledge is not well-structured and, therefore, needs to be analyzed and turned into structured data so that it can be interpreted before integrating into the foresight process.

Originality/value

This study is one of few studies addressing the opportunities for integrating indigenous knowledge into foresight process. Indigenous knowledge can unveil the evolution of socio-cultural changes to improve the results of foresight study, especially the cases where statistical data and trends may not be sufficient to foresee future development.

Details

foresight, vol. 26 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 9 May 2023

Arif Jetha, Ali Shamaee, Emile Tompa, Peter Smith, Ute Bültmann, Silvia Bonaccio, Lori B. Tucker, Cameron Norman, Cristina G. Banks and Monique A.M. Gignac

The world of work is changing and creating challenges and opportunities for the employment inclusion of young people with disabilities. In this article, the perceptions held by…

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Abstract

Purpose

The world of work is changing and creating challenges and opportunities for the employment inclusion of young people with disabilities. In this article, the perceptions held by young adults with disabilities regarding participation in the future of work are examined.

Design/methodology/approach

One-on-one interviews were conducted with Canadian young adults (ages 18–36 years) living with a disability. Participants were asked about their thoughts regarding the impact of the changing nature of work on their labor market involvement and career aspirations. A thematic analysis was performed to identify and examine emergent salient themes.

Findings

In total, 22 young adults were interviewed; over half held secure employment. Career aspirations and work-related decisions were primarily shaped by a participant's health needs. The future of work was seen as a more proximal determinant to employment. Digital technologies were expected to impact working conditions and create barriers and facilitators to employment. Participants who indicated being securely employed held positive expectations regarding the impact of digital technology on their work. Participants working precariously held negative appraisals regarding the impact of digital technologies on employment opportunities. The role of technological and soft skills was critical to participating in a labor market reliant on advanced technology. Participants reported barriers to developing job skills related to their disability and their work arrangements.

Originality/value

This research highlights the importance of considering changes in the future of work, especially the digital transformation of the economy, in the design of initiatives which promote the employment inclusion of young adults with disabilities. Despite the significance of the changing nature of work, supporting health needs and encouraging access to secure work arrangements also remain paramount.

Details

Equality, Diversity and Inclusion: An International Journal, vol. 42 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-7149

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 5 June 2023

Tadhg O’Mahony, Jyrki Luukkanen, Jarmo Vehmas and Jari Roy Lee Kaivo-oja

The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking…

Abstract

Purpose

The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight.

Design/methodology/approach

This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature.

Findings

Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights.

Research limitations/implications

To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk.

Practical implications

While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making.

Social implications

Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.

Details

foresight, vol. 26 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 August 2022

Ilpo Koskinen, Nicholas Gilmore and Emi Minghui Gui

This paper aims to: first, it studies expert opinions about the future of clean, decentralized energy technology in Australia; second, develop an interpretive and participatory…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to: first, it studies expert opinions about the future of clean, decentralized energy technology in Australia; second, develop an interpretive and participatory foresighting methodology for a forthcoming study.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper reports a forecasting study about the future of clean energy. Driven mostly by economics and changing carbon policies, the energy sector is currently moving from fossil fuels to a variety of cleaner technologies. Energy experts have several incommensurate interpretations of how this change will happen. This paper describes the first phase of an ongoing study that foresight clean energy futures in Australia. By building on a participatory method in a scientific expert community, it describes the path from technological presumptions into four parallel yet interconnected scenarios. The paper also explores the social drivers behind these scenarios.

Findings

First, energy experts in Australia classify futures into four main scenarios: abundant, where energy will be mostly produced by solar cells; traded, where the future of energy lies in virtual power plants and microgrids; circular, which targets Australia’s NetZero goals through biomaterials, carbon capture and new powerful; secure, which secures the country’s energy supply through coal and nuclear energy. Second, they locate policy as the most important form of wildcards. The policy is multilayered from local to US politics and falls outside the scope of forecasting.

Research limitations/implications

The most important limitations of the study are: first, its reliance on scientific and technological experts, which guarantees its scientific validity but may underrepresent the social drivers of energy; second, this study is a methodological pilot of a larger study that will target industrial, commercial and local drivers; third, its focus on Australia, where politics, the size of the country and climate shape the uptake of clean energy in specific ways, most notably in the case of rapid uptake of solar energy.

Practical implications

The main practical implications of the paper are its broad focus on clean energy futures and its participatory foresighting approach, which can be repeated in other studies.

Social implications

The main social implication of the study is that it clearly shows that a technological perspective is necessary but not sufficient in understanding the future of clean energy. The paper also shows that local drivers importantly mold the future and should be taken into account in future studies and policy.

Originality/value

This paper makes two contributions. First, it organizes several technologies into four scenarios that clarify Australia’s clean energy futures better than a piecemeal study would do. Second, it developed and piloted an interpretive participatory methodology for studying futures by building on references from design research. This methodology will be used in subsequent studies.

Details

foresight, vol. 25 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 September 2023

Kallaya Tantiyaswasdikul

This systematic literature review investigates the contribution of design thinking (DT) as a process and tool to drive innovation in a sustainable built environment (SBE) and…

Abstract

Purpose

This systematic literature review investigates the contribution of design thinking (DT) as a process and tool to drive innovation in a sustainable built environment (SBE) and develops a new model for sustainability research integrating DT and future thinking approaches toward achieving a unified DT and foresight notion for future research and applications.

Design/methodology/approach

This review was based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. Open-access English articles published between 2000 and 2022 identified using the EBSCOhost, Emerald Insight, DOJA, JSTOR, Scopus and Taylor and Francis database searches were reviewed. The review framework deploys a previously proposed modified Ansoff matrix with an integrated innovation matrix to identify and analyze the challenges and opportunities for innovation growth in SBE. Additionally, a citation analysis was conducted to explore the impact of DT for innovation in SBE, and a proposed framework based on design by drawing on foresight theory was developed.

Findings

Research on DT for innovation in SBE faces the challenge of unanticipated impacts. According to the average number of citations per document, innovation associated with new solutions within a new context seems to become highly influential. Additionally, research gaps exist in the integration of foresight and DT into sustainability research to identify new contexts and solutions to SBE. A model of foresight design thinking (FDT) is proposed to guide future research and support the practical application of DT in sustainability.

Research limitations/implications

This analysis was limited by the selection criteria as only certain keywords were used and English-only articles were selected. Future research should consider the use of DT for innovation in SBE using various important keywords, which would improve research findings and expand the contribution of DT to SBE.

Practical implications

The FDT model offers a new holistic framework for the iterative process of reframing and reperception, focusing on divergent and convergent thinking with the goal of contributing to SBE practices.

Social implications

The integrated framework of DT and foresight can contribute to the study and development of sustainable innovation and a strategic shift toward a sustainable society.

Originality/value

The integration of DT, foresight and sustainability can broaden the horizons of sustainability research by systematically addressing future challenges related to SBE, which can be translated into feasible and innovative solutions. Thus, the FDT model complements the application of DT in sustainable innovation in this research field.

Details

Smart and Sustainable Built Environment, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2046-6099

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 October 2022

Jongho Heo, Chaejeong Lee and Bogyeong Min

This study aims to identify and prioritize preferable 2050 future images and the policy agendas of the Republic of Korea using a bottom-up approach, involving legislative staff of…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to identify and prioritize preferable 2050 future images and the policy agendas of the Republic of Korea using a bottom-up approach, involving legislative staff of the National Assembly as well as experts from various fields.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors derived three future images from the future policy agendas selected by experts: society for growth of smart generations (GS), society for sustainability and safety (SS) and society for coexistence and diversity (CD). The survey conducted among legislative staff (n = 189) shows that the most preferred future image was SS. Then, the authors prioritized the policy agendas that aligned with future images using priority calculating methods.

Findings

The most prioritized policy agenda was “Social system for coexistence to resolve social conflict,” followed by “Social sustainability through tackling low birth rate.” The next was “Social integration policies to embrace diverse family composition” and “Responding to social change and knowledge transformation caused by artificial intelligence.” Among the top five rankings, two agendas from each SS and CD were selected.

Practical implications

To achieve the preferred future images, implementing policies related to sustainability, human rights and coexistence are necessary for continuous collaboration among stakeholders, especially those from the legislature.

Originality/value

This study presents a method of involving the National Assembly, which is a representative institution of the people and composed of various political parties, to set the national’s future vision and agenda from a long-term perspective.

Details

foresight, vol. 25 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 January 2022

Mohammad Reza Fallah and Maryam Soori

The concentration of women entrepreneurs on influential events such as the development of green entrepreneurship, which lead to the coordination and dynamic balance between…

Abstract

Purpose

The concentration of women entrepreneurs on influential events such as the development of green entrepreneurship, which lead to the coordination and dynamic balance between economic and environmental goals, can create a bright future for businesses with sustainable and environmentally friendly architecture. The main purpose of this study is to provide a framework for the successful entry of women entrepreneurs into green entrepreneurship.

Design/methodology/approach

The present qualitative applied descriptive-analytical study was conducted on a population of women entrepreneurs working in green businesses. This population was obtained by the non-probability chain sampling method and an exploratory interview with the saturation of 12 individuals. Thematic analysis was used to analyze the findings.

Findings

The results revealed that creating shared value, inclusive social acceptance, multifaceted interactions and green dynamic bedding are effective in the entry of women entrepreneurs into green entrepreneurship in the form of “competitive empowerment” and “multiplied green synergy”. Thus, managers and planners should consider some factors, including shared value, social acceptance, inclusive acceptance, building green culture, knowledge flows, multiple participation, networking dimension, green marketing, competitiveness, creating platforms, green technologies and risk management.

Originality/value

This research tries to present a framework for the entry of women entrepreneurs into green entrepreneurship area.

Details

Journal of Science and Technology Policy Management, vol. 14 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2053-4620

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 May 2022

Kimberly Camrass

This paper aims to analyse both traditional and regenerative fields across four layers, litany, systems, worldviews and myth/metaphor. It aims to provide in-depth insight into the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyse both traditional and regenerative fields across four layers, litany, systems, worldviews and myth/metaphor. It aims to provide in-depth insight into the beliefs, values epistemologies and assumptions that scaffold thinking and practice. As a result of this analysis, future implications for regenerative urban practice are also considered.

Design/methodology/approach

Prevailing sustainability approaches seek to mitigate further harm in urban centres by increasing efficiency and minimising resource consumption and impact. They are primarily underpinned by a reductionist worldview that separates human objectives from those of the natural world. In contrast, regenerative approaches to urban sustainability have emerged out of an ecological worldview and aim to achieve net positive outcomes as a result of co-evolutionary relationships between social and ecological systems. This paper explores both approaches in urban communities through futures thinking tool, causal layered analysis.

Findings

As a result of the causal layered analysis undertaken, this paper provides insights into regenerative thinking and practice in urban settings. These insights cover four main thematic categories: purpose, place, practice and progress. Moving to the deeper layers of worldview and myth metaphor analysis, in particular, has significant implications for ongoing practice, including facilitating processes by which communities can reflect upon, unpack and reconstruct their concepts of future “success”.

Originality/value

Anthropogenic climate change continues to deliver worsening ecological, social and economic impacts globally. Urban centres are particularly central to this crisis given their massive resource consumption and rapid population growth. This paper provides an alternative, deep analysis to consider thinking and practice required for urban regeneration. It reveals the need for a shift in purpose and a deeper understanding of place, illustrating the roles that futures tools may place in this transition.

Details

foresight, vol. 25 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 June 2022

Maciel M. Queiroz, Charbel José Chiappetta Jabbour, Ana Beatriz Lopes de Sousa Jabbour, Susana Carla Farias Pereira and Julio Carneiro-da-Cunha

Peace engineering and compassionate operations can unlock the potential of emerging technologies for social good. This work aims to investigate the integration of peace…

Abstract

Purpose

Peace engineering and compassionate operations can unlock the potential of emerging technologies for social good. This work aims to investigate the integration of peace engineering and compassionate operations by proposing an integrative framework and identifying the main drivers regarding social good, considering the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) landscape.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used a two-stage methodology by employing a narrative literature review in the first stage to identify the relationships and drivers and propose an original framework. In the second stage, the authors utilized an expert panel to validate the framework’s drivers.

Findings

The authors identified five main categories related to peace engineering and compassionate operations, which were then used to support the categorization of the drivers. In the second stage, the authors validated the drivers with a panel of academicians and experienced industry practitioners.

Practical implications

The proposed framework can provide insightful directions for practitioners and governments to develop strategies and projects in different contexts, including humanitarian logistics, climate change crises, supply chain disruptions, etc.

Originality/value

This work makes unique contributions by reinvigorating an amalgamation of the peace engineering and compassionate operations arenas and their integration with the SDGs to enable enhanced social good, supported by cutting-edge technologies. Thus, this framework’s contributions encompass essential theoretical, managerial, and social implications.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. 30 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 July 2023

Simon Mair and Angela Druckman

This viewpoint paper addresses the use of sustainability frameworks in embedding education for sustainability into the curriculum of higher education institutions (HEIs). The…

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Abstract

Purpose

This viewpoint paper addresses the use of sustainability frameworks in embedding education for sustainability into the curriculum of higher education institutions (HEIs). The purpose of this paper is to explore the paradox that sustainability frameworks must facilitate transformation of existing structures whilst also being well-enough aligned with current conditions to be readily adopted by today’s HEIs.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper proposes a set of four criteria for assessing the suitability of sustainability frameworks for use across the curriculum: relevance to current curricula, language, institutional fit and concept of the future. Using these criteria, this paper assesses how various frameworks align with the current (unsustainable) state of affairs and their transformative potential. The frameworks assessed are: the sustainable development goals (SDGs), the three pillars framework and the capitals approach.

Findings

This paper finds that each of the frameworks has strengths and weaknesses: the SDGs and the capitals approach perform well on alignment but less well on transformational criteria. Conversely, the three pillars framework performs well on transformation criteria but less well on alignment criteria. By applying the criteria set out in this paper, the authors hope those working to embed sustainability into the curricula of HEIs will be better equipped to navigate the tensions presented by sustainability transitions.

Originality/value

Using a novel set of criteria for assessing sustainability frameworks, this paper provides guidance that was previously lacking in education for sustainability professionals who are attempting to embed sustainability into the curriculum at HEIs.

Details

International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education, vol. 24 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1467-6370

Keywords

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