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Article
Publication date: 29 September 2021

Anthia Maniati, Efstratios Loizou, Dimitrios Psaltopoulos and Konstadinos Mattas

The economic and social problems, including high unemployment, facing the Greek economy in recent years are substantial. The role of the agri-food sector and agriculture in…

Abstract

Purpose

The economic and social problems, including high unemployment, facing the Greek economy in recent years are substantial. The role of the agri-food sector and agriculture in dealing with unemployment is a concern. To support the agricultural economy, a Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 2007–2014 was adopted and implemented in the EU Member States. However, boosting employment, in the industry itself and indirectly in the economy, has almost never been a key goal of any policy. The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of the CAP 2014–2020 in maintaining and enhancing employment and income distribution in the region of Central Macedonia.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used the regional social accounting matrix (SAM), which examines the depiction of the interconnections between the sectors of economic activity and local economy (households, businesses, public) but also interconnections and transactions with the rest of the world. The SAM presents a more complete picture of the economic figures of the region, evaluating the interconnections of cross-sectoral relations and the implemented policies, both in the production sectors and in the regional society.

Findings

For the Central Macedonia region, the agricultural sector is a key player, holding a regulatory role for regional economic viability, and shows marked connections with the other industry branches of the region.

Originality/value

The new CAP 2014–2020 through Pillar 2–Rural Development may reinforce the new role of the industry in terms of the environment, integrated rural development and social structure of rural areas, ensuring coherence.

Details

Agricultural Finance Review, vol. 82 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-1466

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 January 2020

Pedro Esteban Moncarz and Sergio Victor Barone

Brazil, a large developing economy whose main exports consist of primary commodities, benefited greatly from the boom in commodity prices during the first decade of the current…

Abstract

Purpose

Brazil, a large developing economy whose main exports consist of primary commodities, benefited greatly from the boom in commodity prices during the first decade of the current century. However, with a large share of its population with low and very low incomes, there is a potential for some adverse redistributive effects. The purpose of this paper is to address this issue by simulating the ex ante effects using a mixed endogenous–exogenous social accounting matrix (SAM) price model.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology consists of two parts. First, using a mixed endogenous–exogenous SAM price model, the authors obtain the elasticities of domestic prices (goods, services and factors) in response to the increase in international prices of three types of commodities: agricultural, oil/gas and minerals. Second, the authors run micro-simulations at the household level on welfare effects, as well as on some distributive indices. Analysis at the regional level is also carried out.

Findings

Following increases in the international prices of primary commodities, the responses of internal prices (goods, services and factors) mean a welfare loss all over the entire distribution of household per capita expenditure; the least affected are those households at the low end and around the median of the distribution. However, the differences among households are not very important. Moreover, once we take into account government transfers and payments from social security, the magnitude of the effects reduces even further. Also, inequality indices and poverty rates show little responsiveness to the simulated shocks. Finally, poorer regions are the most likely to be affected, but also the distribution of effects across households shows differences between regions.

Originality/value

Economies with comparative advantages in the production of primary commodities can benefit at a macro-level from the increase in the international prices of such commodities. However, when a large part of the population spends a high proportion of its income on goods whose prices may be affected by the increase in commodity prices, there is a room for some undesirable effects from a redistributive standpoint. This study provides valuable results about such potential effects for Brazil, a large developing economy.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 15 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 January 2023

Irfan Ahmed, Claudio Socci, Stefano Deriu, Silvia D'Andrea and Naif M. Mathkur

The recent COVID-19 is forcing governments to implement policies on a large scale to counter its spread. A central issue in the economic debate is the effective quantification of…

Abstract

Purpose

The recent COVID-19 is forcing governments to implement policies on a large scale to counter its spread. A central issue in the economic debate is the effective quantification of the impact that the policies may implicitly have on the economy. This study quantifies the effects of lockdown in the United States.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model calibrated on a social accounting matrix (SAM). The lockdown policy is applied on the supply side, by using a reduction in the production according to the closing time of each industry. The reduction in the demand is also applied, throughout the contraction of the household consumption that is diversified by the commodities. In order to analyse the pure effect of the lockdown policy, the interventions by the policy makers are not considered in this study.

Findings

The results show an important contraction of productivity in the food industry, the real estate activities, the constructions and the general services.

Originality/value

The contraction produces a fall of the GDP for the whole period analysed, traced by the investments, which includes repercussions on the whole productive system, employment and income of the institutional sectors.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 7 December 2021

Raed Alharbi

Even with the Saudi Arabian Government's discretionary measures to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the economic sectors were not spared from the…

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Abstract

Purpose

Even with the Saudi Arabian Government's discretionary measures to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the economic sectors were not spared from the damage. Thus, the paper aims to use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's (KSA) economy, with a special focus on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and production. These influence the level of poverty.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper adopted the social accounting matrix (SAM) for Saudi Arabia built in 2021 by Imtithal Althumairi from Saudi Arabia's 2017 SAM. The model represents a snapshot of the economy and different flows that exist within the tasks and institutions. Two simulations (mild and severe) were conducted because of the focus on the distributional outcomes.

Findings

Decrease in job creation and economic growth were significant evidence from the study's findings. Findings show that more families hit below the poverty line because the negative impacts of the pandemic have shifted the income allocation curve. Findings show that the weakest of the poor are mitigated by government social grants during the pandemic.

Research limitations/implications

The paper is restricted to the relevant literature relating to the impact of COVID-19 on Saudi Arabia's economy and evaluated using the SAM model. Moreover, the COVID-19 is still an ongoing scenario; thus, the model should be updated as data utilised for the operationalisation are made available.

Practical implications

The information from the suggested model can be suitable to measure the degree of the harm, and thus, the likely extent of the desirable policy feedback. Also, the model can be updated, as data are made available and formulated policies based on the updated data implemented by the policymakers.

Originality/value

Apart from the recovery planning of SMEs during the pandemic, the paper intends to stir up Saudi Arabia's policymakers through the macro-micro model to recovery planning and resilience of the economy with emphasis on mitigating unemployment.

Details

PSU Research Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2399-1747

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 July 2020

Irfan Ahmed and Ali Mohammad Medabesh

This study quantifies empirically the induced impact of income distribution and consumption expenditure on the structures of agriculture production of Nigerian economy.

Abstract

Purpose

This study quantifies empirically the induced impact of income distribution and consumption expenditure on the structures of agriculture production of Nigerian economy.

Design/methodology/approach

The study calibrates an extended input-output model on a social accounting matrix (SAM) for Nigeria for the year 2010. Moreover, the study conducts a dispersion analysis to identify the key agriculture sectors/subsectors both in exogenous and endogenous setup.

Findings

This study presents an empirical analysis of propagation in the structure of production particularly in the structure of agriculture sector. It combines the aggregate and the disaggregated levels of analysis and identifies the key sectors/subsectors both in the exogenous and endogenous setup. The comparison of both findings confirms that the composition of income distribution and consumption expenditure significantly influences the composition and the aggregated and disaggregated order of structure of agriculture production.

Originality/value

Knowledge of interindustry connections is vital in policy implications since the policy makers prefer strongly interconnected sectors to the sectors with poor industry linkages. These connections are estimated as forward and backward linkages, which provide indices to set the criteria for key sectors identification. This study presents an empirical analysis of propagation in the structure of production particularly in the structure of agriculture sector. It combines the aggregate and the disaggregated levels of analysis and identifies the key sectors/subsectors both in the exogenous and endogenous setup.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 47 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 April 2009

Xiandong Tan, Zhaoguang Hu, Baoguo Shan and Meng Li

The purpose of this paper is to establish a model to analyze the impacts of economic policy on the demand for electricity in China, including the impacts of fiscal and monetary…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to establish a model to analyze the impacts of economic policy on the demand for electricity in China, including the impacts of fiscal and monetary policies.

Design/methodology/approach

With the development of electric reform, the impacts of economic policy on demand for electricity will be more and more obvious. It is difficult to analyze the impacts by a conventional model. CGE model is based on the theory of general equilibrium which is put forward by Walras, it describes the supplying and demanding relationship between the sectors of the economic system, a CGE model can recognize that an exogenous change (in policy or from other source) that affects any one part of the economy can produce repercussions throughout the system, it can also analyze the impacts of economic policy on electric power sector.

Findings

A CGE model and a social accounting matrix are established.

Research limitations/implications

Accessibility and availability of data are the main limitations which model will be applied.

Practical implications

A very useful model to study the impacts of economic policy on electric power sector.

Originality/value

The new method to analyze the impacts of economic policy on electric power sector in China. The paper aims at policy makers and the researchers who deal with electric power demand and supply.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 38 no. 3/4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 July 2020

Yumei Zhang, Xinshen Diao, Kevin Z. Chen, Sherman Robinson and Shenggen Fan

The purpose of this study is to assess the potential economic cost of the COVID-19 pandemic on China's macroeconomy and agri-food system and provide policy recommendations to…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to assess the potential economic cost of the COVID-19 pandemic on China's macroeconomy and agri-food system and provide policy recommendations to stimulate economic growth and agri-food system development.

Design/methodology/approach

An economy-wide multisector multiplier model built on China's most recent social accounting matrix (SAM) for 2017 with 149 economic sectors is used to assess the impact of COVID-19 on China's macroeconomy and agri-food system. SAM multiplier analysis focuses on supply chain linkages and captures the complexity of an interconnected economy.

Findings

The paper finds that both the macroeconomy and agri-food systems are hit significantly by COVID-19. There are three main findings. First, affected by COVID-19, GDP decreased by 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020 compared with that in 2019, while the economic loss of the agri-food system is equivalent to 7% of its value added (about RMB 0.26 trillion). More than 46m agri-food system workers (about 27% of total employment) lost their jobs to COVID-19 in the lockdown phase. The COVID-19 affects the employment of unskilled labor more than that of skilled labor. Second, when the economy starts to recover during the second and third quarters, the growth rate in the value added of the agri-food system turns positive but still modest. Many jobs resume during the period, but the level of agri-food system employment continues to be lower than the base. The agri-food system employment recovery is slower than that of other sectors largely due to the sluggish recovery of restaurants. Agri-food system employment drops by 8.6m, which accounts for about 33% of the total jobs lost. Third, although the domestic economy is expected to be normal in the fourth quarter, external demand still faces uncertainties due to the global pandemic. The agri-food system is projected to grow by 1.1% annually in 2020 with resuming export demand, while only by 0.4% without resuming export demand. These rates are much lower than an annual growth rate of 4.3% for the agri-food system in 2019. The results also show that, without resuming export demand, China's total economy will grow less than 1% in 2020, while, with export demand resumed, the growth rate rises to 1.7%. These rates are much lower than an annual GDP growth rate of 6.1% in 2019.

Practical implications

The results show that continuously reducing economic dependency on exports and stimulating domestic demand are key areas that require policy support. The agri-food system can play an important role in supporting broad economic growth and job creation as SMEs are major part of the AFS. Job creation requires policies to promote innovation by entrepreneurs who run numerous SMEs in China.

Originality/value

This paper represents the first systematic study assessing the impact of COVID-19 on China's agri-food system in terms of value added and employment. The assessment considers three phases of lockdown, recovery and normal phases in order to capture the full potential cost of COVID-19.

Details

China Agricultural Economic Review, vol. 12 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-137X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 September 2022

Christopher Belford, Delin Huang, Yosri Nasr Ahmed, Ebrima Ceesay and Lang Sanyang

Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival adversely impact the agriculture sector. In an impoverished country like The Gambia, economic costs of climate change are…

2011

Abstract

Purpose

Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival adversely impact the agriculture sector. In an impoverished country like The Gambia, economic costs of climate change are colossal. This study aims to establish a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for The Gambia’s agriculture sector to examine the effects of climate change on crops, livestock and sea-level rise.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used a CGE model with other climate change impact models to compute the impacts of climate change on The Gambia’s agriculture sector. The social accounting matrix calibrates the results from the various models, thereby generating the baseline results which exemplify a “steady-state” and policy shock results illustrating the medium- and long-term effects of climate change on the country’s agriculture sector.

Findings

The baseline results indicate the status quo showing the neglect of the agriculture sector due to limited investment in the sector. Hence, the sector is the “hardest hit” sector as a result of climate change. When the model factored in climate change in the medium term (2055) and long term (2085), the macroeconomic indicators of gross domestic product, national savings, wages, disposable income and consumer price index deteriorated, elucidating the vulnerability of the economy to climate change. The consumption of groundnuts, cattle and fish will decline by 5%, 5% and 4%, respectively, in the long term. However, the production of all agricultural commodities will decline by an average of 35% for the same period. The results for international trade show that exportation would decline while importation will increase over time. The general price level for agricultural commodities would increase by 3% in 2055 and 5% in 2085. Generally, the results manifest the severity of climate change in the agriculture sector which will have a multiplier effect on the economy. The impact of climate change would result in agriculture and economic decline causing hunger, poverty and human misery.

Originality/value

The caveat of this study revealed the nuances not captured by previous Gambian climate change studies, thus the novelty of the study.

Details

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, vol. 15 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-8692

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 September 2004

Sam Cole

Explores possibilities for simulating the effects of continuous disruptions to an economy using a multi‐sector social accounting model. The underlying thesis for the model is that…

Abstract

Explores possibilities for simulating the effects of continuous disruptions to an economy using a multi‐sector social accounting model. The underlying thesis for the model is that disruptions (due to events ranging from potholes to earthquakes) are a constant and unavoidable aspect of development and that all institutions and production activities are structured and adapt over time so as to balance performance and protection. The first sections explain the role of input‐output tables, especially social accounts, as the basic framework for evaluating systemic vulnerability to disaster. The next sections explain the underlying behavioral components of the model: how the profile of protection versus disruption and costs of protection are determined, and how adaptation of the protection profile to changing events and societal discounting affects protection. In the final sections, these elements are integrated into a multi‐sector social accounting model of the Niagara Frontier region of New York State – affected by industrial decline and currency fluctuations is dependent on a major hydro‐electric power facility that is considered vulnerable to a variety of unscheduled events. Results focus on how disruptions and responses to them propagate over time and between actors.

Details

Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, vol. 13 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0965-3562

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 November 2019

Charity Gomo

The purpose of this paper is to quantify the impact of social or government transfers on income inequality and poverty in South Africa.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to quantify the impact of social or government transfers on income inequality and poverty in South Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

A top-down, bottom-up (TD-BU) model which combines an econometrically estimated labor supply model, a detailed tax-benefit module and a computable general equilibrium model is used in order to analyze the impact of government transfers on income inequality and poverty in South Africa. The paper uses a merged South African income and expenditure household survey and labor force survey for the year 2000, and a South African social accounting matrix as the main data sets.

Findings

Simulation results suggest that doubling of government transfers lead to a 5.5 percent reduction in poverty if a relative poverty measure is used and a 7 percent reduction if an absolute poverty line is used. In addition, simulation results show differences in poverty and inequality measures between the MS-only model and the linked TD-BU model confirming the importance of linking the two models.

Originality/value

The TD-BU approach is important since it explicitly accounts for the following aspects: that labor supply should adjust to changes in the tax-benefit model, general equilibrium effects and the heterogeneity of economic agents. This allows for a richer micro-household modeling.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 46 no. 12
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

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