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The purposes of this research are to study the theory and method of multi-attribute index system design and establish a set of systematic, standardized, scientific index systems for the design optimization and inspection process. The research may form the basis for a rational, comprehensive evaluation and provide the most effective way of improving the quality of management decision-making. It is of practical significance to improve the rationality and reliability of the index system and provide standardized, scientific reference standards and theoretical guidance for the design and construction of the index system.

Using modern methods such as complex networks and machine learning, a system for the quality diagnosis of index data and the classification and stratification of index systems is designed. This guarantees the quality of the index data, realizes the scientific classification and stratification of the index system, reduces the subjectivity and randomness of the design of the index system, enhances its objectivity and rationality and lays a solid foundation for the optimal design of the index system.

Based on the ideas of statistics, system theory, machine learning and data mining, the focus in the present research is on “data quality diagnosis” and “index classification and stratification” and clarifying the classification standards and data quality characteristics of index data; a data-quality diagnosis system of “data review – data cleaning – data conversion – data inspection” is established. Using a decision tree, explanatory structural model, cluster analysis, K-means clustering and other methods, classification and hierarchical method system of indicators is designed to reduce the redundancy of indicator data and improve the quality of the data used. Finally, the scientific and standardized classification and hierarchical design of the index system can be realized.

The innovative contributions and research value of the paper are reflected in three aspects. First, a method system for index data quality diagnosis is designed, and multi-source data fusion technology is adopted to ensure the quality of multi-source, heterogeneous and mixed-frequency data of the index system. The second is to design a systematic quality-inspection process for missing data based on the systematic thinking of the whole and the individual. Aiming at the accuracy, reliability, and feasibility of the patched data, a quality-inspection method of patched data based on inversion thought and a unified representation method of data fusion based on a tensor model are proposed. The third is to use the modern method of unsupervised learning to classify and stratify the index system, which reduces the subjectivity and randomness of the design of the index system and enhances its objectivity and rationality.

China's marine economy occupies an important position within the national economy, and its contribution thereto is constantly improving. The overall operation of the marine economy shows positive developmental trends with potential for further growth. The purpose of this research is to analyse the prosperity of China's marine economy, reveal trends therein and forecast the likely turning point in its operation.

Based on the periodicity and fluctuation of China's marine economy development, China's marine economic prosperity indicator system is established from five perspectives. On this basis, China's marine economic operation prosperity index can be synthesised and calculated, then a dynamic factor model is constructed. Using the filtering method to calculate China's marine economic operational Stock–Watson index, Markov switching has been used to determine the trend to transition. Furthermore, China's current marine economic prosperity is evaluated through analysis of influencing factors and correlation analysis.

The analysis shows that, from 2017 to 2019, the operation of the marine economy is relatively stable, and the prosperity index supports this finding; meanwhile it also exposes problems in China's marine economy, such as an unbalanced industrial structure, low marine economic benefits and insufficient capacity for sustainable development.

Through the analysis of the prosperity of China's marine economy, the authors reveal the trends in China's marine economy and forecast its likely future turning point.

This paper aims to study the influence of aerodynamics force of trains passing each other on the dynamic response of vehicle bridge coupling system based on numerical simulation and multi-body dynamics and put forward the speed threshold for safe running of train under different crosswind speeds.

The computational fluid dynamics method is adopted to simulate the aerodynamic force in the whole process of train passing each other by using dynamic grid technology. The dynamic model of vehicle-bridge coupling system is established considering the effects of aerodynamic force of train passing each other under crosswind, the dynamic response of train intersection on the bridge under crosswind is computed and the running safety of the train is evaluated.

The aerodynamic force of trains' intersection has little effects on the derailment factor, lateral wheel-rail force and vertical acceleration of train, but it increases the offload factor of train and significantly increases the lateral acceleration of train. The crosswind has a significant effect on increasing the derailment factor, lateral wheel-rail force and offload factor of train. The offload factor of train is the key factor to control the threshold of train speed. The impact of the aerodynamic force of trains' intersection on running safety cannot be ignored. When the extreme values of crosswind wind speed are 15 m·s⁻¹, 20 m·s⁻¹ and 25 m·s⁻¹, respectively, the corresponding speed thresholds for safe running of train are 350 km·h⁻¹, 275 km·h⁻¹ and 200 km·h⁻¹, respectively.

The research can provide a more precise numerical method to study the running safety of high-speed trains under the aerodynamic effect of trains passing each other on bridge in crosswind.

In this paper, an emerging state-of-the-art machine intelligence technique called the Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) is applied to the task of short-term load forecasting (STLF). A HTM Spatial Pooler (HTM-SP) stage is used to continually form sparse distributed representations (SDRs) from a univariate load time series data, a temporal aggregator is used to transform the SDRs into a sequential bivariate representation space and an overlap classifier makes temporal classifications from the bivariate SDRs through time. The comparative performance of HTM on several daily electrical load time series data including the Eunite competition dataset and the Polish power system dataset from 2002 to 2004 are presented. The robustness performance of HTM is also further validated using hourly load data from three more recent electricity markets. The results obtained from experimenting with the Eunite and Polish dataset indicated that HTM will perform better than the existing techniques reported in the literature. In general, the robustness test also shows that the error distribution performance of the proposed HTM technique is positively skewed for most of the years considered and with kurtosis values mostly lower than a base value of 3 indicating a reasonable level of outlier rejections.

Since many global path planning algorithms cannot achieve the planned path with both safety and economy, this study aims to propose a path planning method for unmanned vehicles with a controllable distance from obstacles.

First, combining satellite image and the Voronoi field algorithm (VFA) generates rasterized environmental information and establishes navigation area boundary. Second, establishing a hazard function associated with navigation area boundary improves the evaluation function of the A^* algorithm and uses the improved A^* algorithm for global path planning. Finally, to reduce the number of redundant nodes in the planned path and smooth the path, node optimization and gradient descent method (GDM) are used. Then, a continuous smooth path that meets the actual navigation requirements of unmanned vehicle is obtained.

The simulation experiment proved that the proposed global path planning method can realize the control of the distance between the planned path and the obstacle by setting different navigation area boundaries. The node reduction rate is between 33.52% and 73.15%, and the smoothness meets the navigation requirements. This method is reasonable and effective in the global path planning process of unmanned vehicle and can provide reference to unmanned vehicles’ autonomous obstacle avoidance decision-making.

This study establishes navigation area boundary for the environment based on the VFA and uses the improved A* algorithm to generate a navigation path that takes into account both safety and economy. This study also proposes a method to solve the redundancy of grid environment path nodes and large-angle steering and to smooth the path to improve the applicability of the proposed global path planning method. The proposed global path planning method solves the requirements of path safety and smoothness.

This study aims to examine the impact of income smoothing on the value of firms in a regulated security market, moderated by market risk. This is based on the prevalence of accounting scandals resulting in the collapse of firms which has been attributed to the opportunistic behaviors of managers.

The ex post facto research design was employed, and as such, data were gathered from secondary sources. The quantitative approach was also used in the study. Furthermore, the system generalized method of moments (Blundell–Bond) panel estimation technique was used for analyzing the data. Income smoothing was measured using the accrual based methods, while firm value was measured using share price.

The study found that income smoothing has a negative significant impact on firm value. The study also revealed that market risk is a significant variable that defines the relationship between income smoothing and firm value.

Testing the moderating effect of market risk on the relationship between income smoothing and firm value is unique to this study, particularly from a regulated security market and emerging economy.

Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) point clouds have been widely used in deformation measurement for structures. However, reliability and accuracy of resulting deformation estimation strongly depends on quality of each step of a workflow, which are not fully addressed. This study aims to give insight error of these steps, and results of the study would be guidelines for a practical community to either develop a new workflow or refine an existing one of deformation estimation based on TLS point clouds. Thus, the main contributions of the paper are investigating point cloud registration error affecting resulting deformation estimation, identifying an appropriate segmentation method used to extract data points of a deformed surface, investigating a methodology to determine an un-deformed or a reference surface for estimating deformation, and proposing a methodology to minimize the impact of outlier, noisy data and/or mixed pixels on deformation estimation.

In practice, the quality of data point clouds and of surface extraction strongly impacts on resulting deformation estimation based on laser scanning point clouds, which can cause an incorrect decision on the state of the structure if uncertainty is available. In an effort to have more comprehensive insight into those impacts, this study addresses four issues: data errors due to data registration from multiple scanning stations (Issue 1), methods used to extract point clouds of structure surfaces (Issue 2), selection of the reference surface S_ref to measure deformation (Issue 3), and available outlier and/or mixed pixels (Issue 4). This investigation demonstrates through estimating deformation of the bridge abutment, building and an oil storage tank.

The study shows that both random sample consensus (RANSAC) and region growing–based methods [a cell-based/voxel-based region growing (CRG/VRG)] can be extracted data points of surfaces, but RANSAC is only applicable for a primary primitive surface (e.g. a plane in this study) subjected to a small deformation (case study 2 and 3) and cannot eliminate mixed pixels. On another hand, CRG and VRG impose a suitable method applied for deformed, free-form surfaces. In addition, in practice, a reference surface of a structure is mostly not available. The use of a fitting plane based on a point cloud of a current surface would cause unrealistic and inaccurate deformation because outlier data points and data points of damaged areas affect an accuracy of the fitting plane. This study would recommend the use of a reference surface determined based on a design concept/specification. A smoothing method with a spatial interval can be effectively minimize, negative impact of outlier, noisy data and/or mixed pixels on deformation estimation.

Due to difficulty in logistics, an independent measurement cannot be established to assess the deformation accuracy based on TLS data point cloud in the case studies of this research. However, common laser scanners using the time-of-flight or phase-shift principle provide point clouds with accuracy in the order of 1–6 mm, while the point clouds of triangulation scanners have sub-millimetre accuracy.

This study aims to give insight error of these steps, and the results of the study would be guidelines for a practical community to either develop a new workflow or refine an existing one of deformation estimation based on TLS point clouds.

The results of this study would provide guidelines for a practical community to either develop a new workflow or refine an existing one of deformation estimation based on TLS point clouds. A low-cost method can be applied for deformation analysis of the structure.

Although a large amount of the studies used laser scanning to measure structure deformation in the last two decades, the methods mainly applied were to measure change between two states (or epochs) of the structure surface and focused on quantifying deformation-based TLS point clouds. Those studies proved that a laser scanner could be an alternative unit to acquire spatial information for deformation monitoring. However, there are still challenges in establishing an appropriate procedure to collect a high quality of point clouds and develop methods to interpret the point clouds to obtain reliable and accurate deformation, when uncertainty, including data quality and reference information, is available. Therefore, this study demonstrates the impact of data quality in a term of point cloud registration error, selected methods for extracting point clouds of surfaces, identifying reference information, and available outlier, noisy data and/or mixed pixels on deformation estimation.

This study aims to predict overnight stays in Italy at tourist accommodation facilities through a nonlinear, single factor, stochastic model called CIR#. The contribution of this study is twofold: in terms of forecast accuracy and in terms of parsimony (both from the perspective of the data and the complexity of the modeling), especially when a regular pattern in the time series is disrupted. This study shows that the CIR# not only performs better than the considered baseline models but also has a much lower error than other additional models or approaches reported in the literature.

Typically, tourism demand tends to follow regular trends, such as low and high seasons on a quarterly/monthly level and weekends and holidays on a daily level. The data set consists of nights spent in Italy at tourist accommodation establishments as collected on a monthly basis by Eurostat before and during the COVID-19 pandemic breaking regular patterns.

Traditional tourism demand forecasting models may face challenges when massive amounts of search intensity indices are adopted as tourism demand indicators. In addition, given the importance of accurate forecasts, many studies have proposed novel hybrid models or used various combinations of methods. Thus, although there are clear benefits in adopting more complex approaches, the risk is that of dealing with unwieldy models. To demonstrate how this approach can be fruitfully extended to tourism, the accuracy of the CIR# is tested by using standard metrics such as root mean squared errors, mean absolute errors, mean absolute percentage error or average relative mean squared error.

The CIR# model is notably simpler than other models found in literature and does not rely on black box techniques such as those used in neural network (NN) or data science-based models. The carried analysis suggests that the CIR# model outperforms other reference predictions in terms of statistical significance of the error.

The proposed model stands out for being a viable option to the Holt–Winters (HW) model, particularly when dealing with irregular data.

The proposed model has demonstrated superiority even when compared to other models in the literature, and it can be especially useful for tourism stakeholders when making decisions in the presence of disruptions in data patterns.

The novelty lies in the fact that the proposed model is a valid alternative to the HW, especially when the data are not regular. In addition, compared to many existing models in the literature, the CIR# model is notably simpler and more transparent, avoiding the “black box” nature of NN and data science-based models.

一般来说, 旅游需求往往遵循规律的趋势, 例如季度/月的淡季和旺季, 以及日常的周末和假期。该数据集包括欧盟统计局在打破常规模式的2019冠状病毒病大流行之前和期间每月收集的在意大利旅游住宿设施度过的夜晚。

本研究旨在通过一个名为cir#的非线性单因素随机模型来预测意大利游客住宿设施的过夜住宿情况。这项研究的贡献是双重的:在预测准确性方面和在简洁方面(从数据和建模复杂性的角度来看), 特别是当时间序列中的规则模式被打乱时。我们表明, cir#不仅比考虑的基线模型表现更好, 而且比文献中报告的其他模型或方法具有更低的误差。

当大量搜索强度指标被作为旅游需求指标时, 传统的旅游需求预测模型将面临挑战。此外, 鉴于准确预测的重要性, 许多研究提出了新的混合模型或使用各种方法的组合。因此, 尽管采用更复杂的方法有明显的好处, 但风险在于处理难使用的模型。为了证明这种方法能有效地扩展到旅游业, 使用RMSE、MAE、MAPE或AvgReIMSE等标准指标来测试cir#的准确性。

cir#模型明显比文献中发现的其他模型简单, 并且不依赖于黑盒技术, 例如在神经网络或基于数据科学的模型中使用的技术。所进行的分析表明, cir#模型在误差的统计显著性方面优于其他参考预测。

这个模型作为Holt-Winters模型的一个拟议模型, 特别是在处理不规则数据时。

即使与文献中的其他模型相比, 所提出的模型也显示出优越性, 并且在数据模式中断时对旅游利益相关者做出决策特别有用。

创新之处在于所提出的模型是Holt-Winters模型的有效替代方案, 特别是当数据不规律时。此外, 与文献中的许多现有模型相比, cir#模型明显更简单、更透明, 避免了神经网络和基于数据科学的模型的“黑箱”性质。

Normalmente, la demanda turística tiende a seguir tendencias regulares, como temporadas altas y bajas a nivel trimestral/mensual y fines de semana y festivos a nivel diario. El conjunto de datos consiste en las pernoctaciones en Italia en establecimientos de alojamiento turístico recogidas mensualmente por Eurostat antes y durante la pandemia de COVID-19, rompiendo los patrones regulares.

El presente estudio pretende predecir las pernoctaciones en Italia en establecimientos de alojamiento turístico mediante un modelo estocástico no lineal de un solo factor denominado CIR#. La contribución de este estudio es doble: en términos de precisión de la predicción y en términos de parsimonia (tanto desde la perspectiva de los datos como de la complejidad de la modelización), especialmente cuando un patrón regular en la serie temporal se ve interrumpido. Demostramos que el CIR# no sólo aplica mejor que los modelos de referencia considerados, sino que también tiene un error mucho menor que otros modelos o enfoques adicionales de los que se informa en la literatura.

Los modelos tradicionales de previsión de la demanda turística pueden enfrentarse a desafíos cuando se adoptan cantidades masivas de índices de intensidad de búsqueda como indicadores de la demanda turística. Además, dada la importancia de unas previsiones precisas, muchos estudios han propuesto modelos híbridos novedosos o han utilizado diversas combinaciones de métodos. Así pues, aunque la adopción de enfoques más complejos presenta ventajas evidentes, el riesgo es el de enfrentarse a modelos poco manejables. Para demostrar cómo este enfoque puede extenderse de forma fructífera al turismo, se comprueba la precisión del CIR# utilizando métricas estándar como RMSE, MAE, MAPE o AvgReIMSE.

El modelo CIR# es notablemente más sencillo que otros modelos encontrados en la literatura y no se basa en técnicas de caja negra como las utilizadas en los modelos basados en redes neuronales o en la ciencia de datos. El análisis realizado sugiere que el modelo CIR# supera a otras predicciones de referencia en términos de significación estadística del error.

El modelo propuesto destaca por ser una opción viable al modelo Holt-Winters, sobre todo cuando se trata de datos irregulares.

El modelo propuesto ha demostrado su superioridad incluso cuando se compara con otros modelos de la bibliografía, y puede ser especialmente útil para los agentes del sector turístico a la hora de tomar decisiones cuando se producen alteraciones en los patrones de datos.

La novedad radica en que el modelo propuesto es una alternativa válida al Holt-Winters especialmente cuando los datos no son regulares. Además, en comparación con muchos modelos existentes en la literatura, el modelo CIR# es notablemente más sencillo y transparente, evitando la naturaleza de “caja negra” de los modelos basados en redes neuronales y en ciencia de datos.

In recent years, China's marine industry has maintained rapid growth in general, and marine-related economic activities have continued to improve. The purpose of this research is to analyze the basic situation of China's marine economy development, identify the problems therein, forecast development trends and propose policy recommendations accordingly.

This research conducts a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the development of China's marine economy with rich data in diversified aspects. The current situation of China's marine economy development is analyzed from the perspective of scale and structure, and the external and internal development environment of China's marine economy is discussed. With the application of measurement and prediction method such as trend extrapolation, exponential smoothing, grey forecasting and neural network method, the future situation of China's marine economy development is forecasted.

In a complex environment where uncertainties at home and abroad have increased significantly, China's marine economy development suffers tremendous downward pressure in recent years. As China has achieved major achievements in the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic, the marine economy development will gradually return to normal. It is estimated that the gross marine production value in 2022 will exceed 10 trillion yuan. China's marine economy will continue to maintain a steady growth trend in the future, and its development prospects will remain promising.

This research explores the current situation and trends of China's marine economy development and puts forward policy recommendations to promote the steady and health development of China's marine economy accordingly.

This paper aims to review recent research in design for additive manufacturing (DfAM), including additive manufacturing (AM) terminology, trends, methods, classification of DfAM methods and software. The focus is on the design engineer’s role in the DfAM process and includes which design methods and tools exist to aid the design process. This includes methods, guidelines and software to achieve design optimization and in further steps to increase the level of design automation for metal AM techniques. The research has a special interest in structural optimization and the coupling between topology optimization and AM.

The method used in the review consists of six rounds in which literature was sequentially collected, sorted and removed. Full presentation of the method used could be found in the paper.

Existing DfAM research has been divided into three main groups – component, part and process design – and based on the review of existing DfAM methods, a proposal for a DfAM process has been compiled. Design support suitable for use by design engineers is linked to each step in the compiled DfAM process. Finally, the review suggests a possible new DfAM process that allows a higher degree of design automation than today’s process. Furthermore, research areas that need to be further developed to achieve this framework are pointed out.

The review maps existing research in design for additive manufacturing and compiles a proposed design method. For each step in the proposed method, existing methods and software are coupled. This type of overall methodology with connecting methods and software did not exist before. The work also contributes with a discussion regarding future design process and automation.