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The study investigates the impact of higher moments on cross-sectional returns in the Indian equity market.
Abstract
Purpose
The study investigates the impact of higher moments on cross-sectional returns in the Indian equity market.
Design/methodology/approach
Using the daily data of 3,085 Bombay Stock Exchange-listed stocks spanning over 20 years from January 2000 to December 2019, the study evaluates the relationship between higher moments (skewness and kurtosis) and stock returns at individual stock and portfolio levels. The variations in the returns of the equal-weighted and the value-weighted portfolios are analysed, where the portfolios are constructed by sorting the stocks on skewness and kurtosis. The returns are adjusted for five common factors – market excess-returns, size, value, momentum and illiquidity, to controls other cross-sectional effects. Besides, the study employs Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression and time-series tests of higher moments as robustness measures.
Findings
The study presents higher moments anomaly in the Indian equity market. Contrary to what is expected based on a risk-averse rational agent model, a robust positive relationship is observed between the skewness and stock returns. The relationship between the kurtosis and stock returns is negative, albeit statistically weak. These results are robust for the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression and time-series tests.
Originality/value
It is among the earlier attempts to investigate the pricing impact of higher moments at different levels of asset prices in an emerging market. Besides the standard portfolio methodology for explaining cross-sectional variations, the study also employs the time-series tests for higher moment factors, hence provides more robust results. Results have wider implications for asset pricing in emerging markets and highlight many issues for further research.
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K. Stephen Haggard, Jeffrey Scott Jones and H Douglas Witte
The purpose of this paper is to determine the extent to which outliers have persisted in augmenting the Halloween effect over time and to offer an econometric test of seasonality…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to determine the extent to which outliers have persisted in augmenting the Halloween effect over time and to offer an econometric test of seasonality in return skewness that might provide a partial explanation for the Halloween effect.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors split the Morgan Stanley Capital International data for 37 countries into two subperiods and, using median regression and influence vectors, examine these periods for a possible change in the interplay between outliers and the Halloween effect. The authors perform a statistical assessment of whether outliers are a significant contributor to the overall Halloween effect using a bootstrap test of seasonal differences in return skewness.
Findings
Large returns (positive and negative) persist in being generally favorable to the Halloween effect in most countries. The authors find seasonality in return skewness to be statistically significant in many countries. Returns over the May through October timeframe are negatively skewed relative to returns over the November through April period.
Originality/value
This paper offers the first statistical test of seasonality in return skewness in the context of the Halloween effect. The authors show the Halloween effect to be a more complex phenomenon than the simple seasonality in mean returns documented in prior research.
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Richard Teach and Elizabeth Murff
It is always a struggle to write papers and talks that contain statistical information as the presentation methods used for analytic results do have an impact on the comprehension…
Abstract
It is always a struggle to write papers and talks that contain statistical information as the presentation methods used for analytic results do have an impact on the comprehension of the reader or audience. Furthermore, fundamental statistics are often misunderstood or obscured by the author rather than clearly explained. The fact that one can never be sure of the statistical sophistication of a reader or audience makes it easy for the author to write material that muddles rather than clarifies the results. Then, the reader or audience is left wondering if the author’s work is just “lies, damn lies, or statistics”. This paper provides a short discourse on fundamental statistical theory, intermixed with a few thoughts and suggestions on the use and presentation of statistical results. After all, any paper or presentation is useless if the intended audience misunderstands or misinterprets the information being presented.
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Vaseem Akram and Rohan Mukherjee
The main purpose of this paper is to examine the convergence hypothesis of House Price Index (HPI) in the case of 18 major Indian cities for the period 2014–2019.
Abstract
Purpose
The main purpose of this paper is to examine the convergence hypothesis of House Price Index (HPI) in the case of 18 major Indian cities for the period 2014–2019.
Design/methodology/approach
To attain the authors main goal, this study applies a clustering algorithm advanced by Phillips and Sul. This test creates a club of convergence based on the growth of the cities in terms of HPI.
Findings
The study findings show the existence of two convergence clubs and one non-convergent group. Club 1 includes the cities with high HPI growth, whereas club 2 comprises of cities with least HPI growth. Cities belonging to the non-convergent group are neither converging nor diverging.
Practical implications
This study findings will benefit home buyers, sellers, investors, regulators and policymakers interested in the dynamic interlinkages of house price (HP) among Indian cities.
Originality/value
The majority of the studies are conducted in the case of China at the province or city levels. Furthermore, in the case of India, none of the studies has investigated the HP club convergence across Indian cities. Therefore, the present study fills this research gap by examining the HP club convergence across Indian cities.
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Dustin C. Derby, Andrea Haan and Kurt Wood
Patient satisfaction is paramount to maintaining high clinical quality assurance. This study seeks to compare response rates, response bias, and the completeness of data between…
Abstract
Purpose
Patient satisfaction is paramount to maintaining high clinical quality assurance. This study seeks to compare response rates, response bias, and the completeness of data between paper and electronic collection modes of a chiropractic patient satisfaction survey.
Design/methodology/approach
A convenience sample of 206 patients presenting to a chiropractic college clinic were surveyed concerning satisfaction with their chiropractic care. Paper (in‐clinic and postal) and electronic modes of survey administration were compared for response rates and non‐response bias.
Findings
The online data collection mode resulted in fewer non‐responses and a higher response rate, and did not evince response bias when compared to paper modes. The postal paper mode predicted non‐response rates over the in‐clinic paper and online modalities and exhibited a gender bias.
Research limitations/implications
This current study was a single clinic study; future studies should consider multi‐clinic data collections. Busy clinic operations and available staff resources restricted the ability to conduct a random sampling of patients or to invite all eligible patients, therefore limiting the generalizability of collected survey data.
Practical implications
Results of this study will provide data to aid development of survey protocols that efficiently, account for available human resources, and are convenient for patients while allowing for the most complete and accurate data collection possible in an educational clinic setting.
Originality/value
Understanding patient responses across survey modes is critical for the cultivation of quality business intelligence within college teaching clinic settings. This study bridges measurement evidence from three popular data collection modalities and offers support for higher levels of quality for web‐based data collection.
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Xiaoyue Chen, Bin Li and Andrew C. Worthington
The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationships between the higher moments of returns (realized skewness and kurtosis) and subsequent returns at the industry level, with…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationships between the higher moments of returns (realized skewness and kurtosis) and subsequent returns at the industry level, with a focus on both empirical predictability and practical application via trading strategies.
Design/methodology/approach
Daily returns for 48 US industries over the period 1970–2019 from Kenneth French’s data library are used to calculate the higher moments and to construct short- and medium-term single-sort trading strategies. The analysis adjusts returns for common risk factors (market, size, value, investment, profitability and illiquidity) to confirm whether conventional asset pricing models can capture these relationships.
Findings
Past skewness positively relates to subsequent industry returns and this relationship is unexplained by common risk factors. There is also a time-varying effect in which the predictive role of skewness is much stronger over business cycle expansions than recessions, a result consistent with varying investor optimism. However, there is no significant relationship between kurtosis and subsequent industry returns. The analysis confirms robustness using both value- and equal-weighted returns.
Research limitations/implications
The calculation of realized moments conventionally uses high-frequency intra-day data, regrettably unavailable for industries. In addition, the chosen portfolio-sorting method may omit some information, as it compares only average group returns. Nonetheless, the close relationship between skewness and future returns at the industry level suggests variations in returns unexplained by common risk factors. This enriches knowledge of market anomalies and questions yet again weak-form market efficiency and the validity of conventional asset pricing models. One suggestion is that it is possible to significantly improve the existing multi-factor asset pricing models by including industry skewness as a risk factor.
Practical implications
Given the relationship between skewness and future returns at the industry level, investors may predict subsequent industry returns to select better-performing funds. They may even construct trading strategies based on return distributions that would generate abnormal returns. Further, as the evaluation of individual stocks also contains industry information, and stocks in industries with better performance earn higher returns, risks related to industry return distributions can also shed light on individual stock picking.
Originality/value
While there is abundant evidence of the relationships between higher moments and future returns at the firm level, there is little at the industry level. Further, by testing whether there is time variation in the relationship between industry higher moments and future returns, the paper yields novel evidence concerning the asymmetric effect of stock return predictability over business cycles. Finally, the analysis supplements firm-level results focusing only on the decomposed components of higher moments.
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Asgar Ali, K.N. Badhani and Ashish Kumar
This study aims to investigate the risk-return trade-off in the Indian equity market at both the aggregate equity market level and in the cross-sections of stock return using…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the risk-return trade-off in the Indian equity market at both the aggregate equity market level and in the cross-sections of stock return using alternative risk measures.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses weekly and monthly data of 3,085 Bombay Stock Exchange-listed stocks spanning over 20 years from January 2000 to December 2019. The study evaluates the risk-return trade-off at the aggregate equity market level using the value-weighted and the equal-weighted broader portfolios. Eight different risk proxies belonging to the conventional, downside and extreme risk categories are considered to analyse the cross-sectional risk-return relationship.
Findings
The results show a positive equity premium on the value-weighted portfolio; however, the equal-weighted portfolio of these stocks shows an average return lower than the return on the 91-day Treasury Bills. The inverted size premium mainly causes this anomaly in the Indian equity market as the small stocks have lower returns than big stocks. The study presents a strong negative risk-return relationship across different risk proxies. However, under the subsample of more liquid stocks, the low-risk anomaly regarding other risk proxies becomes moderate except the beta-anomaly. This anomalous relationship seems to be caused by small and less liquid stocks having low institutional ownership and higher short-selling constraints.
Practical implications
The findings have important implications for investors, managers and practitioners. Investors can incorporate the effects of different highlighted anomalies in their investment strategies to fetch higher returns. Managers can also use these findings in their capital budgeting decisions, resource allocations and other diverse range of direct and indirect decisions, particularly in emerging markets such as India. The findings provide insights to practitioners while valuing the firms.
Originality/value
The study is among the earlier attempts to examine the risk-return trade-off in an emerging equity market at both the aggregate equity market level and in the cross-sections of stock returns using alternative measures of risk and expected returns.
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Ha Nguyen, Yihui Lan and Sirimon Treepongkaruna
Prior studies use two measures of firm-specific return variation (FSRV): idiosyncratic volatility in absolute and relative terms, the latter of which is also termed stock price…
Abstract
Purpose
Prior studies use two measures of firm-specific return variation (FSRV): idiosyncratic volatility in absolute and relative terms, the latter of which is also termed stock price nonsynchronicity. Whereas most research focuses on investigating the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle, the authors carry out comparison of these two measures and further investigate which of the two constituents of nonsynchronicity explain the association between FSRV and stock returns, emphasising the importance of assessing which component drives stock returns.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use the US individual stock returns from 1925 to 2016 and define the two measures of FRSV based on the Fama and French (1993) model. Specifically, the authors decompose the relative measure into two components: (i) absolute idiosyncratic volatility and (ii) systematic volatility. The authors conduct various tests based on high-minus-low, zero-investment quintile portfolio sorts and perform the Fama–MacBeth analysis by singling out each component.
Findings
The authors find a positive return on the portfolio sorted on relative idiosyncratic volatility or on systematic volatility, but find a negative return sorted on absolute idiosyncratic volatility. The results are robust after controlling for size, BM and other risk characteristics using a double-sorting approach. The Fama–MacBeth regression results show that a positive association between the relative measure and stock returns is driven primarily by the low-systematic-volatility anomaly across firms. The findings are robust to controlling for return residual momentum, skewness, jumps and information discreteness.
Originality/value
Extant research posits the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle and the low-volatility anomaly. The authors emphasize the importance of integrating these two streams of research. This study enhances the understanding of the driving force underlying the relationship between FSRV and cross-sectional stock returns.
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Minyeon Han, Dong-Hyun Lee and Hyoung-Goo Kang
This paper aims to replicate 148 anomalies and to examine whether the performance of the Korean market anomalies is statistically and economically significant. First, the authors…
Abstract
This paper aims to replicate 148 anomalies and to examine whether the performance of the Korean market anomalies is statistically and economically significant. First, the authors observe that only 37.8% anomalies in the universe of the KOSPI and the KOSDAQ and value-weighted portfolios have t-statistics that exceed 1.96. When the authors impose a higher threshold (an absolute value of t-statistics of 2.78), only 27.7% of the 148 anomalies survive. Second, microcaps have large impacts. The results vary significantly depending on whether the sample included stocks in the KOSDAQ and whether value-weighted or equal-weighted portfolios are used. The results suggest that data mining explains large portion of abnormal returns. Any tactical asset allocation strategies based on market anomalies should be applied very cautiously.
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Chi Wan and Zhijie Xiao
This paper analyzes the roles of idiosyncratic risk and firm-level conditional skewness in determining cross-sectional returns. It is shown that the traditional EGARCH estimates…
Abstract
This paper analyzes the roles of idiosyncratic risk and firm-level conditional skewness in determining cross-sectional returns. It is shown that the traditional EGARCH estimates of conditional idiosyncratic volatility may bring significant finite sample estimation bias in the presence of non-Gaussianity. We propose a new estimator that has more robust sampling performance than the EGARCH MLE in the presence of heavy-tail or skewed innovations. Our cross-sectional portfolio analysis demonstrates that the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle documented by Ang, Hodrick, Xiang, and Zhang (2006) exists intertemporally. We conduct further analysis to solve the puzzle. We show that two factors idiosyncratic variance and individual conditional skewness play important roles in determining cross-sectional returns. A new concept, the “expected windfall,” is introduced as an alternate measure of conditional return skewness. After controlling for these two additional factors, we solve the major piece of this puzzle: Our cross-sectional regression tests identify a positive relationship between conditional idiosyncratic volatility and expected returns for over 99% of the total market capitalization of the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX stock exchanges.
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