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1 – 10 of over 2000
Article
Publication date: 4 May 2020

A. Ford Ramsey, Sujit K. Ghosh and Barry K. Goodwin

Revenue insurance is the most popular form of insurance available in the US federal crop insurance program. The majority of crop revenue policies are sold with a harvest price…

Abstract

Purpose

Revenue insurance is the most popular form of insurance available in the US federal crop insurance program. The majority of crop revenue policies are sold with a harvest price replacement feature that pays out on lost crop yields at the maximum of a realized or projected harvest price. The authors introduce a novel actuarial and statistical approach to rate revenue insurance policies with exotic price coverage: the payout depends on an order statistic or average of prices. The authors examine the price implications of different dependence models and demonstrate the feasibility of policies of this type.

Design/methodology/approach

Hierarchical Archimedean copulas and vine copulas are used to model dependence between prices and yields and serial dependence of prices. The authors construct several synthetic exotic price coverage insurance policies and evaluate the impact of copula models on policies covering different types of risk.

Findings

The authors’ findings show that the price of exotic price coverage policies is sensitive to the choice of dependence model. Serial dependence varies across the growing season. It is possible to accurately price exotic coverage policies and we suggest these add-ons as a possible avenue for developing private crop insurance markets.

Originality/value

The authors apply hierarchical Archimedean copulas and vine copulas that allow for flexibility in the modeling of multivariate dependence. Unlike previous research, which has primarily considered dependence across space, the form of exotic price coverage requires modeling serial dependence in relative prices. Results are important for this segment of the agricultural insurance market: one of the main areas that insurers can develop private products around the federal program.

Details

Agricultural Finance Review, vol. 80 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-1466

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 February 2011

Beatriz Vaz de Melo Mendes and Cecília Aíube

This paper aims to statistically model the serial dependence in the first and second moments of a univariate time series using copulas, bridging the gap between theory and…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to statistically model the serial dependence in the first and second moments of a univariate time series using copulas, bridging the gap between theory and applications, which are the focus of risk managers.

Design/methodology/approach

The appealing feature of the method is that it captures not just the linear form of dependence (a job usually accomplished by ARIMA linear models), but also the non‐linear ones, including tail dependence, the dependence occurring only among extreme values. In addition it investigates the changes in the mean modeling after whitening the data through the application of GARCH type filters. A total 62 US stocks are selected to illustrate the methodologies.

Findings

The copula based results corroborate empirical evidences on the existence of linear and non‐linear dependence at the mean and at the volatility levels, and contributes to practice by providing yet a simple but powerful method for capturing the dynamics in a time series. Applications may follow and include VaR calculation, simulations based derivatives pricing, and asset allocation decisions. The authors recall that the literature is still inconclusive as to the most appropriate value‐at‐risk computing approach, which seems to be a data dependent decision.

Originality/value

This paper uses a conditional copula approach for modeling the time dependence in the mean and variance of a univariate time series.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 7 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 March 2014

Vinodh Madhavan

The purpose of this paper is to first, test for nonlinearity in Local Indian Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) listed at NSE, India – NIFTYBEES, JUNIORBEES, BANKBEES, PSUBANKBEES, and…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to first, test for nonlinearity in Local Indian Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) listed at NSE, India – NIFTYBEES, JUNIORBEES, BANKBEES, PSUBANKBEES, and INFRABEES – using a battery of nonlinearity tests; second, to ascertain, using both metric and topological approaches, the adequacy of appropriate AR-GARCH models when it comes to capturing all of the nonlinearity in Indian ETFs; and third, to test for chaos in Indian ETFs.

Design/methodology/approach

To start with, a battery of tests such as and limited to McLeod Li test, Engle's LM test, Tsay F-test, Hinich Bispectrum Test and Hinich Bicorrelation test were employed to test for nonlinearity in Indian ETFs. Subsequently, the nature of nonlinearity in all the ETFs was systematically investigated by subjecting the ETF data sets to a metric (BDS test) and a topological test (close returns tests) at different stages of the model-building process. Finally, Lyapunov Exponent test was employed to test for chaos in Indian ETFs.

Findings

Test outcomes pertaining to a battery of nonlinearity tests indicate prevalence of nonlinearity amidst all ETFs except for INFRABEES. BDS test outcomes at the different stages of the model-building process indicated high sensitivity of the test outcomes to choice of embedding dimension, threshold value and residual transformations. Close returns test outcomes indicated that, but for BANKBEES, all of the nonlinearity in Indian ETFs could be captured by appropriate GARCH models. Finally, chaos was found to be absent in any of the ETFs considered for this study.

Practical implications

The collective take-way from this study is threefold in nature. First, in light of the many limitations of the BDS test, topological approaches such as close-returns test offer a better avenue to test for adequacy of AR-GARCH models in explaining the nature of nonlinearity in asset price movements. Second, adequacy of AR-GARCH models in capturing all of the nonlinearity in NIFTYBEES, JUNIORBEES, PSUBANKBEES, and INFRABEES, as indicated by close-returns test findings, is a reflection of multiplicative nature of nonlinearity in these five ETFs. Third, persistence of nonlinearity in AR-GARCH filtered standardized residuals of BANKBEES, coupled with the absence of chaos in any of the ETFs considered for this study, brings to light the possibility of existence of additive nonlinearity in conjunction with multiplicative nonlinearity.

Originality/value

This is possibly the first study that systematically investigates the nature of nonlinearity in Indian ETFs and ascertains the adequacy of AR-GARCH models when it comes to capturing all of the nonlinearity in Indian ETFs using a topological approach.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 40 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 February 2023

Safaa Kadhem and Haider Thajel

One of the most important sources of energy in the world, due to its great impact on the global economy, is the crude oil. Due to the instability of oil prices which exhibit…

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Abstract

Purpose

One of the most important sources of energy in the world, due to its great impact on the global economy, is the crude oil. Due to the instability of oil prices which exhibit extreme fluctuations during periods of different times of market uncertainty, it became hard to the governments to predict accurately the prices of crude oil in order to build their financial budgets. Therefore, this study aims to analyse and model crude oil price using the hidden Markov process (HMM).

Design/methodology/approach

Traditional mathematical approaches of time series may be not give accurate results to measure and analyse the crude oil price, since the latter has an unstable and fluctuating nature, hence, its prediction forms a challenge task. A novel methodology that is so-called the HMM is proposed that takes into account the heterogeneity in prices as well as their hidden state-based behaviour.

Findings

Using the Bayesian approach, several estimated models with different ranks are fitted to a non-homogeneous data of Iraqi crude oil prices from January 2010 into December 2021. The model selection criteria and measures of the prediction performance of each model are applied to choose the best model. Movements of crude oil prices exhibit extreme fluctuations during periods of different times of market uncertainty. The processes of model estimation and the model selection were conducted in Python V.3.10, and it is available from the first author on request.

Originality/value

Using the Bayesian approach, several estimated models with different ranks are fitted to a non-homogeneous data of Iraqi crude oil prices from January 2010 to December 2021.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 24 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 July 2016

Shuyun Ren and Tsan-Ming Choi

Panel data-based demand forecasting models have been widely adopted in various industrial settings over the past few decades. Despite being a highly versatile and intuitive…

Abstract

Purpose

Panel data-based demand forecasting models have been widely adopted in various industrial settings over the past few decades. Despite being a highly versatile and intuitive method, in the literature, there is a lack of comprehensive review examining the strengths, the weaknesses, and the industrial applications of panel data-based demand forecasting models. The purpose of this paper is to fill this gap by reviewing and exploring the features of various main stream panel data-based demand forecasting models. A novel process, in the form of a flowchart, which helps practitioners to select the right panel data models for real world industrial applications, is developed. Future research directions are proposed and discussed.

Design/methodology/approach

It is a review paper. A systematically searched and carefully selected number of panel data-based forecasting models are examined analytically. Their features are also explored and revealed.

Findings

This paper is the first one which reviews the analytical panel data models specifically for demand forecasting applications. A novel model selection process is developed to assist decision makers to select the right panel data models for their specific demand forecasting tasks. The strengths, weaknesses, and industrial applications of different panel data-based demand forecasting models are found. Future research agenda is proposed.

Research limitations/implications

This review covers most commonly used and important panel data-based models for demand forecasting. However, some hybrid models, which combine the panel data-based models with other models, are not covered.

Practical implications

The reviewed panel data-based demand forecasting models are applicable in the real world. The proposed model selection flowchart is implementable in practice and it helps practitioners to select the right panel data-based models for the respective industrial applications.

Originality/value

This paper is the first one which reviews the analytical panel data models specifically for demand forecasting applications. It is original.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 116 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 July 2020

Lixin Cai

The purpose of this study is to enhance understanding labour supply dynamics of the UK workers by examining whether and to what extent there is state dependence in the labour…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to enhance understanding labour supply dynamics of the UK workers by examining whether and to what extent there is state dependence in the labour supply at both the extensive and intensive margins.

Design/methodology/approach

A dynamic two-tiered Tobit model is applied to the first seven waves of Understanding Society: the UK Household Longitudinal Study. The model used accounts for observed and unobserved individual heterogeneity and serially correlated transitory shocks to labour supply to draw inferences on state dependence.

Findings

The results show that both observed and unobserved individual heterogeneity contributes to observed inter-temporal persistence of the labour supply of the UK workers, and the persistence remains after these factors are controlled for, suggesting true state dependence at both the extensive and intensive margins of the labour supply. The study also finds that at both the margins, the state dependence of labour supply is larger for females than for males and that for both genders the state dependence is larger for people with low education, mature aged workers and people with long-standing illness or impairment. The results also show that estimates from a conventional Tobit model may produce misleading inferences regarding labour supply at the extensive and intensive margins.

Originality/value

This study adds to the international literature on labour supply dynamics by providing empirical evidence for both the extensive and intensive margins of labour supply, while previous studies tend to focus on the extensive margin of labour force participation only. Also, unlike earlier studies that often focus on females, this study compares labour supply dynamics between males and females. The study also compares the estimates from the more flexible two-tiered Tobit model with that from the conventional Tobit model.

Details

International Journal of Manpower, vol. 42 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0143-7720

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 May 2020

Rajesh Pathak, Ranjan Das Gupta, Cleiton Guollo Taufemback and Aviral Kumar Tiwari

This paper aims to examine the weak form of efficiency for price series of four precious metals, i.e. gold, silver, platinum and palladium, using a generalized spectral method.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the weak form of efficiency for price series of four precious metals, i.e. gold, silver, platinum and palladium, using a generalized spectral method.

Design/methodology/approach

The method has the advantage of detecting both linear and non-linear serial dependence in the conditional mean, and it is robust to various forms of conditional heteroscedasticity. The authors use three different rolling windows for the purpose of robustness.

Findings

The authors report weak form of efficiency across metals series for almost all rolling windows. The optimum efficiency for Gold and Palladium is achieved through 250 days rolling window estimates whereas it is 500 days rolling window for silver. Platinum has similar efficiency levels across rolling windows. The degree of efficiency for metal prices is observed to be varying over time with silver market possessing highest levels of efficiency. The efficiency synchronization also varies across rolling windows and metals.

Research limitations/implications

The results reveal that metal markets are efficient for most times implying the low predictability and the low likelihood of earning abnormal returns by speculating in these markets.

Originality/value

The study uses a relatively new statistical technique, the generalized spectral test, to capture linear and non-linear serial dependence. Therefore, the results possess adequate power against departure from market efficiency.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 37 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 May 2018

Lixin Cai

The purpose of this paper is to enhance the understanding of labour force participation behaviour of married Australian women, with a focus on identifying the sources of observed…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to enhance the understanding of labour force participation behaviour of married Australian women, with a focus on identifying the sources of observed inter-temporal labour force participation persistence.

Design/methodology/approach

A dynamic Probit model is applied to the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, a national representative panel survey of Australian households. The model used accounts for observed and unobserved individual heterogeneity and serially correlated transitory shocks to labour supply.

Findings

The results show that both observed and unobserved individual heterogeneity contributes to observed inter-temporal persistence of labour force participation of married Australian women, but the persistence remains even after controlling for these factors. It is also found that failing to control for serially correlated unobserved transitory shocks would lead to underestimation of genuine state dependence of labour force participation; and that state dependence of labour force participation varies with age, education, health, immigration status and the number of children under the school age.

Originality/value

This study adds to the international literature on labour force dynamics of women by providing Australian empirical evidence and through a flexible modelling framework. The result that there exists genuine positive state dependence in married Australian women’s labour force participation suggests that policy intervention that increases married women’s labour supply would have a long-lasting effect.

Details

International Journal of Manpower, vol. 39 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0143-7720

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 August 2008

Michael Demoussis and Nicholas Giannakopoulos

This paper investigates the employment dynamics of Greek married women.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the employment dynamics of Greek married women.

Design/methodology/approach

Longitudinal/panel data for the period 1995‐2001 and dynamic discrete choice models are used for estimation purposes.

Findings

It is found that the probability of being employed is influenced by observed individual characteristics (e.g. human capital, fertility and unearned income), while genuine state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity constitute major sources of observed serial persistence. The results show that lagged employment affects current employment decisions in a systematic way, and that the non‐contemporaneous effects of unearned income and fertility correlate with unobserved heterogeneity. The estimated average partial effects reveal that an employed woman in t−1 has a probability of being employed in t that is almost 50 percentage points higher than for a non‐employed woman.

Practical implications

The presence of state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity imply that the bridging of the female employment gap between Greece and its EU partners is expected to follow a slow, long‐term course.

Originality/value

Greek female labour force participation has been studied only under a static analytical framework. This is the first study to investigate employment decisions of Greek married women in an inter‐temporal setting.

Details

International Journal of Manpower, vol. 29 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0143-7720

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 January 2018

Evangelia Varoutsa and Robert W. Scapens

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to debates about the relationship between trust and control in the governance of inter-organisational relationships. In particular, the…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to debates about the relationship between trust and control in the governance of inter-organisational relationships. In particular, the authors focus on the question of how the relationship between trust and control shifts over time.

Design/methodology/approach

An in-depth case study was conducted in a company operating in the aerospace industry. The authors aim to understand this company’s practices and, at the same time, to use the case study to deepen the knowledge of the complex trust/control nexus. The authors follow the changes in the relationship between trust and control as the company restructured its supply chain, and discuss issues which it had to address in the later phases of the supply chain restructuring.

Findings

The paper illustrates the duality of the trust/control nexus. The authors show how the studied company coped with the complex relationships with its suppliers as collaboration increased. The authors identify particular control mechanisms that the company developed to manage such complexity, such as a supplier strategy and a relationship profile tool.

Research limitations/implications

The paper studies supply chain restructuring and the changing relationship of trust and control over time only from the perspective of the assembler/manufacturer which “owns”/manages the supply chain.

Originality/value

The authors observe a move from inter-personal trust to inter-organisational trust. Furthermore, the authors illustrate how managers can intervene to maintain and stabilise trust and ensure that trust and control do not degrade or escalate beyond desirable levels.

Details

Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, vol. 31 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0951-3574

Keywords

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