Search results

The aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to develop a new measure of investor sentiment rational (ISR) of developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA), (2) to investigate co-movements between the ten developing stock markets, the sentiment investor's, exchange rates and geopolitical risk (GPR) during Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, (3) to explore the key factors that might affect exchange market and capital market before and mainly during Russia–Ukraine war period.

The wavelet approach and the multivariate wavelet coherence (MWC) are applied to detect the co-movements on daily data from August 2019 to December 2022. Value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used to assess the systemic risks of exchange rate market and stock market return in the developing market.

Results of this study reveal (1) strong interdependence between GPR, investor sentiment rational (ISR), stock market index and exchange rate in short- and long-terms in most countries, as inferred from (WTC) analysis. (2) There is evidence of strong short-term co-movements between ISR and exchange rates, with ISR leading. (3) Multivariate coherency shows strong contributions of ISR and GPR index to stock market index and exchange rate returns. The findings signal the attractiveness of the Vietnamese dong, Malaysian ringgits and Tunisian dinar as a hedge for currency portfolios against GPR. The authors detect a positive connectedness in the short term between all pairs of the variables analyzed in most countries. (4) Both foreign exchange and equity markets are exposed to higher levels of systemic risk in the period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

This study provides information that supports investors, regulators and executive managers in developing countries. The impact of sentiment investor with GPR intensified the co-movements of stocks market and exchange market during 2021–2022, which overlaps with period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Although risk culture is a key determinant for an effective risk management, identifying the risk culture of a firm can be challenging due to the abstract concept of culture. This paper proposes a novel approach that uses unsupervised machine learning techniques to identify significant features needed to assess and differentiate between different forms of risk culture.

To convert the unstructured text in our sample of banks' 10K reports into structured data, a two-dimensional dictionary for text mining is built to capture risk culture characteristics and the bank's attitude towards the risk culture characteristics. A principal component analysis (PCA) reduction technique is applied to extract the significant features that define risk culture, before using a K-means unsupervised learning to cluster the reports into distinct risk culture groups.

The PCA identifies uncertainty, litigious and constraining sentiments among risk culture features to be significant in defining the risk culture of banks. Cluster analysis on the PCA factors proposes three distinct risk culture clusters: good, fair and poor. Consistent with regulatory expectations, a good or fair risk culture in banks is characterized by high profitability ratios, bank stability, lower default risk and good governance.

The relationship between culture and risk management can be difficult to study given that it is hard to measure culture from traditional data sources that are messy and diverse. This study offers a better understanding of risk culture using an unsupervised machine learning approach.

This paper aims to examine the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and hedging ratios between Dow Jones markets and oil, gold and bitcoin. Using daily data, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. We employ the DCC-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and asymmetric DCC (ADCC)-GARCH models.

DCC-GARCH and ADCC-GARCH models.

The most of DCCs among market pairs are positive during COVID-19 period, implying the existence of volatility spillovers (Contagion-effects). This implies the lack of additional economic gains of diversification. So, COVID-19 represents a systematic risk that resists diversification. However, during the Russia–Ukraine war the DCCs are negative for most pairs that include Oil and Gold, implying investors may benefit from portfolio-diversification. Our hedging analysis carries significant implications for investors seeking higher returns while hedging their Dow Jones portfolios: keeping their portfolios unhedged is better than hedging them. This is because Islamic stocks have the ability to mitigate risks.

Our paper may make a valuable contribution to the existing literature by examining the hedging of financial assets, including both conventional and Islamic assets, during periods of stability and crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war.

This paper aims to examine whether managerial sentiment, extracted from annual reports, is associated with corporate risk-taking in the context of Chinese companies. This study expands the vein of literature on overconfidence theory.

By leveraging textual analysis on Chinese listed companies’ annual reports, the authors construct firm-level managerial sentiment during 2007 and 2021 to examine how managerial sentiment influences corporate risk-taking after control for firm characteristics. Corporate risk-taking is denoted by corporate investment engagements: capital expenditures and net fixed asset investment.

Results show that incentives for corporate risk-taking are likely to increase with the positive managerial sentiment and decrease with the negative sentiment in companies’ annual reports. Positive managerial sentiment is associated with over-/under-investment and low/high investment efficiency. Further additional tests show that the managerial sentiment effect only holds during low economic uncertain years and samples of private-owned firms. Furthermore, the robust tests indicate that there is no endogenous issue between managerial sentiment and corporate risk-taking.

Annual report textual-based managerial sentiment may not perfectly reflect managers’ lower frequency sentiment (e.g. weekly, monthly and quarterly sentiment). Future studies could attempt to capture managers’ on-time sentiment by using media sources and corporate disclosures.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first research to provide insights into supervising managers’ corporate decisions by observing their textual information usage in corporate disclosure. Moreover, the approach of measuring managerial sentiment might be a solution to monitoring managerial class.

This paper contributes to the literature on accounting and finance studies, adding another piece of empirical evidence on content analysis by examining a unique language and institutional context (i.e. China). Besides, the paper notes that in line with the English version disclosure, based on Chinese semantic words, managerial sentiment in the Chinese-speaking world has magnitude on corporate decisions. The research provides insights into supervising managers’ corporate decisions by observing their textual information usage in corporate disclosure. Moreover, the approach to measuring managerial sentiment may be a practical solution to monitoring managerial class.

Social media data from financial websites contain information related to enterprise credit risk. Mining valuable new features in social media data helps to improve prediction performance. This paper proposes a credit risk prediction framework that integrates social media information to improve listed enterprise credit risk prediction in the supply chain.

The prediction framework includes four stages. First, social media information is obtained through web crawler technology. Second, text sentiment in social media information is mined through natural language processing. Third, text sentiment features are constructed. Finally, the new features are integrated with traditional features as input for models for credit risk prediction. This paper takes Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises as an example to test the prediction framework and obtain relevant management enlightenment.

The prediction framework can improve enterprise credit risk prediction performance. The prediction performance of text sentiment features in social media data is better than that of most traditional features. The time-weighted text sentiment feature has the best prediction performance in mining social media information.

The prediction framework is helpful for the credit decision-making of credit departments and the policy regulation of regulatory departments and is conducive to the sustainable development of enterprises.

The prediction framework can effectively mine social media information and obtain an excellent prediction effect of listed enterprise credit risk in the supply chain.

The present study distinguishes itself by pioneering an innovative framework that integrates key elements of prospect theory and the fundamental principles of electronic word of mouth (EWOM) to forecast Bitcoin/USD price fluctuations using Twitter sentiment analysis.

We utilized Twitter data as our primary data source. We meticulously collected a dataset consisting of over 3 million tweets spanning a nine-year period, from 2013 to 2022, covering a total of 3,215 days with an average daily tweet count of 1,000. The tweets were identified by utilizing the “bitcoin” and/or “btc” keywords through the snscrape python library. Diverging from conventional approaches, we introduce four distinct variables, encompassing normalized positive and negative sentiment scores as well as sentiment variance. These refinements markedly enhance sentiment analysis within the sphere of financial risk management.

Our findings highlight the substantial impact of negative sentiments in driving Bitcoin price declines, in contrast to the role of positive sentiments in facilitating price upswings. These results underscore the critical importance of continuous, real-time monitoring of negative sentiment shifts within the cryptocurrency market.

Our study holds substantial significance for both risk managers and investors, providing a crucial tool for well-informed decision-making in the cryptocurrency market. The implications drawn from our study hold notable relevance for financial risk management.

We present an innovative framework combining prospect theory and core principles of EWOM to predict Bitcoin price fluctuations through analysis of Twitter sentiment. Unlike conventional methods, we incorporate distinct positive and negative sentiment scores instead of relying solely on a single compound score. Notably, our pioneering sentiment analysis framework dissects sentiment into separate positive and negative components, advancing our comprehension of market sentiment dynamics. Furthermore, it equips financial institutions and investors with a more detailed and actionable insight into the risks associated not only with Bitcoin but also with other assets influenced by sentiment-driven market dynamics.

The primary objective of this research is to provide evidence that there are two distinct layers of investor sentiments that can affect asset valuation models. The first is general market-wide sentiments, while the second is biased approaches toward specific assets.

To achieve the goal, the authors conducted a multi-step analysis of stock returns and constructed complex sentiment indices that reflect the optimism or pessimism of stock market participants. The authors used panel regression with fixed effects and a sample of the US stock market to improve the explanatory power of the three-factor models.

The analysis showed that both market-level and stock-level sentiments have significant contributions, although they are not equal. The impact of stock-level sentiments is more profound than market-level sentiments, suggesting that neglecting the stock-level sentiment proxies in asset valuation models may lead to severe deficiencies.

In contrast to previous studies, the authors propose that investor sentiments should be measured using a multi-level factor approach rather than a single-factor approach. The authors identified two distinct levels of investor sentiment: general market-wide sentiments and individual stock-specific sentiments.

This study aims to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both of stock prices and investor's sentiment in China during the onset of the COVID-19 crisis.

In this study, the ADCC-GARCH model was used to analyze the asymmetric volatility and the time-varying conditional correlation among the Chinese stock market, the investors' sentiment and its variation. The authors relied on Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) methodology to construct network-associated measures. Then, the wavelet coherence model was applied to explore the co-movements between these variables. To check the robustness of the study results, the authors referred to the RavenPack COVID sentiments and the Chinese VIX, as other measures of the investor's sentiment using daily data from December 2019 to December 2021.

Using the ADCC-GARCH model, a strong co-movement was found between the investor's sentiment and the Shanghai index returns during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study results provide a significant peak of connectivity between the investor's sentiment and the Chinese stock market return during the 2015–2016 and the end of 2019–2020 turmoil periods. These periods coincide, respectively, with the 2015 Chinese economy recession and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Furthermore, the wavelet coherence analysis confirms the ADCC results, which revealed that the used proxies of the investor's sentiment can detect the Chinese investors' behavior especially during the health crisis.

This study provides two main types of implications: on the one hand, for investors since it helps them to understand the economic outlook and accordingly design their portfolio strategy and allocate decisions to optimize their portfolios. On the other hand, for portfolios managers, who should pay attention to the volatility spillovers between investor sentiment and the Chinese stock market to predict the financial market dynamics during crises periods and hedge their portfolios.

This study attempted to examine the time-varying interactions between the investor's sentiment proxies and the stock market dynamics. Findings showed that the investor's sentiment is considered a prominent channel of shock spillovers during the COVID-19 crisis, which typically confirms the behavioral contagion theory.

This paper aims to investigate the impact of climate change news on the dynamics of US stock indices.

The empirical basis of the study was 3,209 news articles. Sentiment analysis was performed by a pre-trained bidirectional FinBERT neural network. Thematic modeling is based on the neural network, BERTopic.

The results show that news sentiment can influence the dynamics of stock indices. In addition, five main news topics (finance and politics natural disasters and consequences industrial sector and Innovations activism and culture coronavirus pandemic) were identified, which showed a significant impact on the financial market.

First, we extend the theoretical concepts. This study applies signaling theory and overreaction theory to the US stock market in the context of climate change. Second, in addition to the news sentiment, the impact of major news topics on US stock market returns is examined. Third, we examine the impact of sentimental and thematic news variables on US stock market indicators of economic sectors. Previous works reveal the impact of climate change news on specific sectors of the economy. This paper includes stock indices of the economic sectors most related to the topic of climate change. Fourth, the research methodology consists of modern algorithms. An advanced textual analysis method for sentiment classification is applied: a pre-trained bidirectional FinBERT neural network. Modern thematic modeling is carried out using a model based on the neural network, BERTopic. The most extensive topics are “finance and politics of climate change” and “natural disasters and consequences.”

This study empirically documents the effect of ambiguity on stock returns in a major emerging market along with the ambiguity attitudes under various market conditions.

Ambiguity is measured as the volatility of return probability distributions extracted from high frequency intraday data via a method developed by Brenner and Izhakian (2018). The impact of ambiguity is then tested on stock market returns.

The results show that ambiguity is a priced factor in Turkish stock market with a positive premium that is distinct from risk premium. In contrast with the findings in the US market, the investors in Turkey show an increasing level of ambiguity aversion as expected probability of favorable returns deviate from the mean value. The investors are effectively ambiguity neutral in lateral markets. The results are robust to testing with higher moments, sentiment measures and under recession conditions.

This study contributes to empirically documenting ambiguity and ambiguity aversion in a major emerging market along with the opportunity to observe international differences in ambiguity attitudes.