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Abstract

Details

Foresight, vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Article
Publication date: 12 April 2011

M. Atilla Öner and Senem Göl Beşer

The overall aim of the research is to provide an assessment of the level of the reported success of foresight project results of a multinational company in Turkey.

Abstract

Purpose

The overall aim of the research is to provide an assessment of the level of the reported success of foresight project results of a multinational company in Turkey.

Design/methodology/approach

The model of assessment is based on an integrated framework characterized by approaching foresight as a project and associating it by the redefined pitfalls in, and success factors of, corporate foresight projects in order to facilitate better conversion of their results into actual changes in corporations. A multinational company in Turkey (Siemens Turkey) is chosen for the exploratory case study. The exploratory assessment model was designed via the use of a survey questionnaire, a case study, and interviews of managers (who were involved in the corporate foresight project).

Findings

Results of the individual assessment of corporate foresight project at the company were labeled as “successful”. There needs to be given an overall attention to the process‐oriented elements of the foresight project. Pitfalls in the foundation phase accumulated the highest problem area, suggesting that the total project would eventually suffer.

Research limitations/implications

One of the limitations of the study is the use of a single case with an attempt to assess the pitfalls of the foresight projects. The exploratory study may include premature conclusions about the assessment of corporate foresight project results, yet a single case can imply generalizable insights. The authors believe this research suggests some potentially significant insights for foresight studies and their applications.

Practical implications

The study may help to support the reliability of the foresight studies as they have been implemented and might bring a new methodological challenge on the quality and success of the corporate foresight project results.

Social implications

The approach described the factors affecting the success of corporate foresight activities with respect to understanding the pitfalls of foresight projects. Taking reference to such a framework, foresight results may be better delivered and disseminated in corporations with concrete results and actual changes in organizations. The model of assessment may be used to analyze the level of the reported success of foresight project results in companies implementing foresight activities.

Originality/value

Although foresight studies within businesses has become more important and widespread with its systematic and continuous/participatory approach, based on a variety of methods, it is still a partially explored area in terms of research with mainly descriptive studies.

Details

Foresight, vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 April 2011

Knut Erik Solem

The purpose of this paper is to examine and explain the role of foresight in government, while making an attempt to ascertain why foresight is both necessary and rare. The paper

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine and explain the role of foresight in government, while making an attempt to ascertain why foresight is both necessary and rare. The paper aims to identify main areas where foresight is needed as well as the constraints that it faces. It also aims to provide some prescriptions and recommendations for improving both system and process.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology is based on case studies and literature search on futures/forecasting. Furthermore, analysis and observations are based on the author's own participation in different governmental and research environments; in several academic circles; within “think tanks” and on the international circuit (mostly at the UN, NATO, IAEA, IIASA and OECD) as well as within the Scandinavian scene.

Findings

Several methodologies and techniques that are identified here may allow people to help perceive, evaluate and control the effects of their actions, present as well as future. However, they have, so far, only been used spasmodically. One reason for this state of affairs is that the difference between “well‐structured” (normal) and “ill‐structured” (futures type)problems has not been properly identified or satisfactorily solved. The political system faces three major problems: the problem of competence; the problem of deliverability; and the problem of legitimacy. All of these can be helped by the understanding and application of proper foresight methods and techniques.

Originality/value

From the design/methodology point of view, this paper draws on the combined sources of international practice and theoretical implications. Its findings are easily comprehended and hence useful for their practical application for decision making on global as well as regional problems. The concept of fully “learning to unlearn” is of primary importance, as well as that of not “discounting the future”, for which several methods and techniques have been analyzed and suggested.

Details

Foresight, vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 April 2011

Jack E. Smith and Ozcan Saritas

This paper aims to fill a perceived gap in the tool bag of a foresight practitioner – namely the need for a quickly accessible and concise overview of the main methods being

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to fill a perceived gap in the tool bag of a foresight practitioner – namely the need for a quickly accessible and concise overview of the main methods being employed in contemporary foresight, and some guidance on when and how one can select or combine several methods within a single project or focus area to achieve the best results. The intention is that such a primer can be easily reproduced into a format suitable and portable for managers to consult when in project meetings to design foresight processes and select methods.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a matrix table plus some text analysis and diagrams, a concise review of the dominant and most innovative tools for framing technology foresight processes is developed and summarized.

Findings

The paper produces 13 foresight methods classified, summarized and referenced with a limited selection of literature references.

Practical implications

The intention is that the main table and diagrams can be easily copied to a standard poster or made into a pocket pamphlet for those who wish to carry the primer with them.

Originality/value

The insights in the paper are derived from the authors' foresight design and management experience, from inputs and discussions and from relevant literature sources. It is envisioned that this will be only the first pocket primer, with further editions expected in the future, as more diverse experience is gained with these methods and new approaches are tried and tested.

Details

Foresight, vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 April 2011

Susana Elena‐Pérez, Ozcan Saritas, Katja Pook and Campbell Warden

This paper aims to explore the possibilities of combining foresight techniques and intellectual capital management, as two approaches of participatory strategic management, in

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to explore the possibilities of combining foresight techniques and intellectual capital management, as two approaches of participatory strategic management, in higher education institutions. The objective is to generate concrete benefits for prospective strategic management in the academic sector. It also aims to focus on how it may be possible for universities to address the challenges of major change management programmes by implementing foresight and intellectual capital management models.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper reviews recent literature both on conceptual issues and experiences in relation to foresight and intellectual capital. The paper presents an ongoing project focused on the development of a vision for the future of the higher education system in Romania and a frame to differentiate Romanian universities.

Findings

A proposal of an integrated use of foresight and intellectual capital management for universities is suggested. The case study presented illustrates how foresight provides an excellent approach to address the question of how to develop a shared vision of the future and jointly define a strategy to best adapt an organization to the new context, and intellectual capital management models play a role in strategic management, resource allocation and monitoring of objectives and organization performance.

Practical implications

The issues addressed in the paper could provide the starting point for better integration of strategic management in higher education institutions.

Originality/value

The paper explores two concepts closely related but that have not been analysed together: the relationship between Intellectual capital approaches and foresight.

Details

Foresight, vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 April 2011

Martin Amsteus

The purpose of this paper is to assess the relationship between the foresight of managers and firm performance.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to assess the relationship between the foresight of managers and firm performance.

Design/methodology/approach

An evolutionary perspective is deployed to specify the presumed relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance measures. A positive relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance is proposed. The hypothesis is tested through Spearman's rho, on Swedish managers, and firms in the computer programming industry. Managers' foresight as well as performance is assessed as indexes.

Findings

The paper finds a moderate and statistically significant positive relationship between managers' foresight and firm performance.

Research limitations/implications

There is support for the theoretical relationship between managerial foresight and firm performance. There is a strong rationale for further studies.

Originality/value

The paper provides empirical evidence regarding the importance of managerial foresight for firm performance.

Details

Foresight, vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 April 2011

David Sarpong

The aim of this paper is to draw on the social theory of practice to show scenario thinking as an everyday practice and how the practice could be theorised at the meso‐level.

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Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to draw on the social theory of practice to show scenario thinking as an everyday practice and how the practice could be theorised at the meso‐level.

Design/methodology/approach

Counterfactual analysis, scenario analysis and peripheral vision are presented as the constituting methodological triad through which scenario thinking comes into representation.

Findings

Scenario thinking is a temporally emerging everyday organizational practice. By placing emphasis on the mundane and taken for granted activities that come together to form the nexus of the practice, often deep underlying structures of organizational behaviour contributing to scenario thinking can be theorised.

Research limitations/implications

The practice conceptualisation of scenario thinking inverts and challenges existing management and practitioners' conventional understanding of the practice as an episodic phenomenon in waiting to be facilitated by an expert with specific end points and conformity.

Practical implications

Foresight practitioners and researchers can use this as an analytical starting point for the study and theorising of scenario thinking in self organized groups.

Originality/value

The paper provides a new angle of vision to extend understanding of the development and theorising of scenario thinking in autonomous working groups.

Details

Foresight, vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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