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Article
Publication date: 29 November 2022

Menggen Chen and Yuanren Zhou

The purpose of this paper is to explore the dynamic interdependence structure and risk spillover effect between the Chinese stock market and the US stock market.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the dynamic interdependence structure and risk spillover effect between the Chinese stock market and the US stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper mainly uses the multivariate R-vine copula-complex network analysis and the multivariate R-vine copula-CoVaR model and selects stock price indices and their subsector indices as samples.

Findings

The empirical results indicate that the Energy, Materials and Financials sectors have leading roles in the interdependent structure of the Chinese and US stock markets, while the Utilities and Real Estate sectors have the least important positions. The comprehensive influence of the Chinese stock market is similar to that of the US stock market but with smaller differences in the influence of different sectors of the US stock market on the overall interdependent structure system. Over time, the interdependent structure of both stock markets changed; the sector status gradually equalized; the contribution of the same sector in different countries to the interdependent structure converged; and the degree of interaction between the two stock markets was positively correlated with the degree of market volatility.

Originality/value

This paper employs the methods of nonlinear cointegration and the R-vine copula function to explore the interactive relationship and risk spillover effect between the Chinese stock market and the US stock market. This paper proposes the R-vine copula-complex network analysis method to creatively construct the interdependent network structure of the two stock markets. This paper combines the generalized CoVaR method with the R-vine copula function, introduces the stock market decline and rise risk and further discusses the risk spillover effect between the two stock markets.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 July 2021

Taicir Mezghani, Mouna Boujelbène and Mariam Elbayar

The main objective of this paper is to investigate whether the investors' behavior under optimistic (pessimistic) conditions has an impact on risk transmission between the Chinese…

2032

Abstract

Purpose

The main objective of this paper is to investigate whether the investors' behavior under optimistic (pessimistic) conditions has an impact on risk transmission between the Chinese stock and bond markets and the sector indices mainly during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a new measure of the investor's sentiment based on Google trend to construct a Chinese investor's sentiment index and a quantile causal approach to examine the causal relationship between googling investor's sentiment and the Chinese stock and bond markets as well as the sector indices. On the other hand, the network connectedness is used to estimate the spillover effect on the investor's sentiment and index returns. To check the robustness of the study results, the authors employed the Chinese VIX, as another measure of the investor's sentiment using daily data from May 2019 to December 2020.

Findings

In fact, the authors found a dual causality between the investor's sentiment and the financial market indices in optimistic or pessimistic situations, which indicates that positive and negative financial market returns may have an effect on the Chinese investor's sentiment. In addition, the results indicated that a pessimistic investor's sentiment has a negative impact on the banking, healthcare and utility sectors. In fact, the study results provide a significant peak of connectivity between the investor's sentiment, the stock market and the sector indices during the 2015–2016 and 2019–2020 turmoil periods that coincide respectively with the 2015 recession of the Chinese economy and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Originality/value

This finding suggests that the Chinese googling investor's sentiment is considered as a prominent channel of shock spillovers during the coronavirus crisis, which confirms the behavioral contagion. This study also identifies the contribution of a particular interest for portfolio managers and investors, which helps them to accordingly design their portfolio strategy.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 11 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 February 2021

Maha Elhini and Rasha Hammam

This paper aims to examine the impact of the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the USA (COVIDg), the Federal Fund Rate (FFR) and the trade-weighted US dollar index (USDX) on…

1566

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the impact of the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the USA (COVIDg), the Federal Fund Rate (FFR) and the trade-weighted US dollar index (USDX) on S&P500 index daily returns and its 11 constituent sectorsindices for the time period between January 22, 2020, until June 30, 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model to gauge the impacts over the whole period of study, as well as over two sub-periods; first, January 22, 2020, until March 30, 2020, reflecting uncertainty in the US markets and second, from April 1, 2020, until June 30, 2020, reflecting the lockdown.

Findings

Results of the MGARCH model reveal a negative and significant relation between COVIDg and S&P500 index daily returns over the first sub-period and the whole study period in the following sectors, namely, communications, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, health, technology and materials. Yet, COVIDg showed a positive and significant relation with S&P500 index daily returns during the second time period in the following sectors, namely, communication, consumer discretionary, financial, industrial, information technology (IT) and utilities. Besides, USDX showed a negative significant effect on S&P500 index daily returns and on the daily return on each of its 11 constituent sectors over the second sub-period and the whole period. Further, FFR showed a significant effect only in the second sub-period, specifically, a negative effect on the daily return of the financial sector and a positive effect on the daily return of the technology sector index. Nevertheless, FFR had a positive significant effect on the daily return of the utilities sector index for the whole period under study.

Research limitations/implications

The impact of the crisis on the S&P500 index can be assessed only with some limitations owing to available global data and the limited time frame of the lock-down.

Practical implications

The study proposes supporting a smooth, functioning and resilient financial system; increasing fiscal measures by the US Government to increase liquidity on constraints; measures by The Federal Reserve to alleviate US dollar funding shortages; support market integrity; ensure continuous transparency and sharing of information; support the health sector, as well as consumer-based sectors that faced demand shocks and facilitate investments in the technology sector.

Originality/value

The originality of this paper lies in the examination of the impact of the novel COVID-19 pandemic on each of the 11 sectors constituting the S&P500 index separately, reflecting how the main economic sectors formulating the US economy reacted to the shock during the peak time of the pandemic to observe a full picture of the economic consequences amid the pandemic.

Details

Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-4408

Keywords

Abstract

Details

An Input-output Analysis of European Integration
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44451-088-4

Article
Publication date: 28 February 2023

Norzalina Ahmad, Hazrul Shahiri, Safwan Mohd Nor and Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz

This study aims to explore the connectedness of price return index spillovers across eight economic sectors in the Malaysian stock market (Bursa Malaysia).

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore the connectedness of price return index spillovers across eight economic sectors in the Malaysian stock market (Bursa Malaysia).

Design/methodology/approach

The analysis uses daily data of sectoral price index from 10 May 2005 to 24 February 2021. The study uses Bayesian time-varying parameter vector autoregressive.

Findings

The degree of price return index spillovers varies over time, reaching unprecedented heights during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The industrial economic sector is the main transmitter of price index return shock, whereas the utilities economic sector is the dominant receiver of index return spillovers.

Originality/value

The findings are critical for investors, market participants, businesses and policymakers in developing action plans for the vulnerable sectors. It further enhances investors’ confidence in making investment decisions.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 16 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 October 2012

Walid M.A. Ahmed

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the interrelationships amongst the sector‐specific indices of the Qatar Exchange (QE) (i.e. Banking and Financial Institutions (BFI)…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the interrelationships amongst the sector‐specific indices of the Qatar Exchange (QE) (i.e. Banking and Financial Institutions (BFI), Industrial (IND), Insurance (INS), and Services (SER)). More specifically, three key issues are explored in this study. First, the long‐run relationships amongst the sectors. Second, the short‐run causal relationships amongst them; and third, the relative degree of endogeneity/exogeneity of each sector.

Design/methodology/approach

To address the issues of interest, the author employs the econometric analyses of Johansen's multivariate cointegration, Granger's causality, and generalized forecast error variance decomposition. This battery of techniques gives the opportunity to examine the nature of both long‐ and short‐run intersectoral relationships in the QE. To augment the robustness of the empirical analysis, daily as well as weekly closing stock price indices for the four sectors of the Qatar Exchange are used, spanning the period from January 2, 2008 up to April 7, 2011.

Findings

Based on daily and weekly data, the results of Johansen's multivariate cointegration analysis suggest that the four sector indices of the QE share a long‐term equilibrium relationship. The Granger's causality analysis based on daily and weekly datasets provides clear evidence that the BFI sector seems to be a significant causal factor in regard to the price predictability of the remaining sectors in the short run, and that the SER sector surprisingly seems to have the least influential role. Finally, the results of the generalized forecast error variance decomposition analysis using daily data show that the IND and BFI appear to be the most exogenous sectors, whereas the SER and INS are the most endogenous ones. The results based on weekly data confirm the relative exogeneity of the BFI sector and the relative endogeneity of the SER sector.

Practical implications

The findings of this study hold practical implications for individual and institutional investors alike. The potential gains derived from cross‐sector diversification could be rather limited, given the significant degree of interrelationships found amongst the sector indices of the QE. Moreover, the composition of domestic portfolios based on sector‐level investments should be revisited, particularly after major events. The findings also bring some important insights for policymakers. Given the influential role played by the BFI sector in the Qatari economy, policymakers should design appropriate strategies that curb the spread of unanticipated shocks originating from this sector to its counterparts. Besides, due to the considerable degree of endogeneity of the SER sector, it is essential for policymakers to set up precautionary regulations, with the aim of minimizing its vulnerability to common shocks in turbulent times.

Originality/value

Building upon the extant research and focusing on a relatively unexplored market, the paper represents a pioneer attempt to provide empirical evidence on the interdependence structure amongst the sector‐specific indices of the Qatar Exchange.

Article
Publication date: 17 July 2017

Walid M.A. Ahmed

Over a short interval of time (i.e. 2011-2014), Egypt has experienced tectonic political shifts, including the toppling of a long-entrenched dictator, two presidential elections…

1505

Abstract

Purpose

Over a short interval of time (i.e. 2011-2014), Egypt has experienced tectonic political shifts, including the toppling of a long-entrenched dictator, two presidential elections, and a military coup. The purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of the impact of such events on the country’s equity market behaviour, both in terms of returns and volatility.

Design/methodology/approach

The data set is composed of daily stock index closing prices for the overall market and top eight most actively traded sectors. To assess the impact of the considered events on the market and sector returns, an event study approach is applied. On the other hand, a univariate VAR-EGARCH model is employed to explore whether, and to what extent, volatilities at the market and sector levels respond to such events.

Findings

The results suggest that political uncertainty has a profound impact on the risk-return profiles of almost all market sectors, with different degrees of intensity. By and large, the price and volatility effects are most pronounced in banks, financial services excluding banks and chemicals sectors, whilst food and beverages as well as construction and materials sectors are found to be the least responsive to these events. The 2013 military coup turns out to be the most pervasive event impinging on the market and sector-specific indices.

Practical implications

The results have a number of practical implications that could be of interest to many parties involved. More specifically, with political dysfunction overshadowing business and investment activities in Egypt, genuine democratic reforms, which entail proper regard for human rights and the rule of law, must have the highest priority of policymakers, in order to secure a positive investment climate and to foster investor confidence. Furthermore, in tandem with considering other relevant factors, multinational companies need to have a thorough assessment of Egypt’s future political course and to develop more robust contingency plans to effectively combat potential threats generated by political vicissitudes.

Originality/value

To the author’s best knowledge, this study is the first attempt to empirically examine the price and volatility effects of the recent presidential events in Egypt, thereby contributing to the relevant literature in this area.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 12 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 2016

Claire Elizabeth Carlson, Paul A. Isihara, Roger Sandberg, David Boan, Kaile Phelps, Kyu Lim Lee, Danilo R. Diedrichs, Daniela Cuba, Johnny Edman, Melissa Gray, Roland Hesse, Robin Kong and Kei Takazawa

The need in disaster response to assess how reliably and equitably funding was accounted for and distributed is addressed by a standardized report and index applicable to any…

Abstract

Purpose

The need in disaster response to assess how reliably and equitably funding was accounted for and distributed is addressed by a standardized report and index applicable to any disaster type. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

Design/methodology/approach

Data from the Nepal earthquake (2015), Typhoon Haiyan (2013), the Haiti earthquake (2010), Sri Lankan flood (2011), and Hurricane Sandy (2012) illustrate uses of a public equitable allocation of resources log (PEARL). Drawing from activity-based costing and the Gini index, a PEARL spreadsheet computes absolute inequity sector by sector as well as a cumulative index. Response variations guide index value interpretation.

Findings

Index values indicates major inequity in Nepal hygiene kit distribution and Haiti earthquake (both PEARL indices near 0.5), moderate inequity for the Sri Lankan flood (index roughly 0.75) and equitable distributions for Typhoon Haiyan and Hurricane Sandy (both indices approximately 0.95). Indices are useful to approximate proportions of inequity in the total response and investigate allocation under uncertainty in sector need specification.

Originality/value

This original tool is implementable using a website containing a practice PEARL, completed examples and downloadable spreadsheet. Used across multiple sectors or for a single sector, PEARL may signal need for additional resources, correct inequitable distribution decisions, simplify administrative monitoring/assessment, and foster greater accounting transparency in summary reports. PEARL also assists historical analysis of all disaster types to determine completeness of public accounting records and equity in fund distribution.

Details

Journal of Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management, vol. 6 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2042-6747

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 February 2001

NISSO BUCAY and DAN ROSEN

In recent years, several methodologies for measuring portfolio credit risk have been introduced that demonstrate the benefits of using internal models to measure credit risk in…

Abstract

In recent years, several methodologies for measuring portfolio credit risk have been introduced that demonstrate the benefits of using internal models to measure credit risk in the loan book. These models measure economic credit capital and are specifically designed to capture portfolio effects and account for obligor default correlations. An example of an integrated market and credit risk model that overcomes this limitation is given in Iscoe et al. [1999], which is equally applicable to commercial and retail credit portfolios. However, the measurement of portfolio credit risk in retail loan portfolios has received much less attention than the commercial credit markets. This article proposes a methodology for measuring the credit risk of a retail portfolio, based on the general portfolio credit risk framework of Iscoe et al. The authors discuss the practical estimation and implementation of the model. They demonstrate its applicability with a case study based on the credit card portfolio of a North American financial institution. They also analyze the sensitivity of the results to various assumptions.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 2 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Abstract

Details

Using Economic Indicators in Analysing Financial Markets
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80455-325-1

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