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This study aims to explore the smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change and its adaptation options (changing crop variety; improved crop and livestock; soil and water conservation [SWC]; and irrigation practices) and drought indices in the Dire Dawa Administration Zone, Eastern Ethiopia.

A cross-sectional household survey was used. A structured interview schedule for respondent households for key informants and focus group discussions were used. This study used both descriptive statistics and an econometric model. The model was used to compute the determinants of climate adaptation options in the study area. Drought characterization was carried out by DrinC software.

The results revealed households adapted to selected adaptation options. The model results confirmed that education level, farm size, tropical livestock units (TLUs) and access to agricultural extension services have positive and significant impacts on changing crop variety by 0.0014%, 0.045%, 0.032% and 0.035%, respectively. The likelihood of farmers’ decisions to use adaptation strategies (family size, TLU, agricultural extension service and distance from the market) has positive and significant impacts on SWC. The reconnaissance drought index (RDI6) of ONDJFM and AMJJAS showed extreme and severe drought index values of −2.88 and −1.96, respectively.

This study used a locally adopted climate change adaptation intervention for smallholder farmers, revealing the importance of drought characterization indices both seasonally and annually.

The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

Radical changes in consumer habits induced by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic suggest that the usual demand forecasting techniques based on historical series are questionable. This is particularly true for hospitality demand, which has been dramatically affected by the pandemic. Accordingly, we investigate the suitability of tourists’ activity on Twitter as a predictor of hospitality demand in the Way of Saint James – an important pilgrimage tourism destination.

This study compares the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time-series model with that of the SARIMA with an exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model to forecast hotel tourism demand. For this, 110,456 tweets posted on Twitter between January 2018 and September 2022 are used as exogenous variables.

The results confirm that the predictions of traditional time-series models for tourist demand can be significantly improved by including tourist activity on Twitter. Twitter data could be an effective tool for improving the forecasting accuracy of tourism demand in real-time, which has relevant implications for tourism management. This study also provides a better understanding of tourists’ digital footprints in pilgrimage tourism.

This study contributes to the scarce literature on the digitalisation of pilgrimage tourism and forecasting hotel demand using a new methodological framework based on Twitter user-generated content. This can enable hospitality industry practitioners to convert social media data into relevant information for hospitality management.

2019冠狀病毒病引致消費者習慣有根本的改變; 這些改變顯示，根據歷史序列而運作的慣常需求預測技巧未必是正確的。這不確性尤以受到大流行極大影響的酒店服務需求為甚。因此，我們擬探討、若把在推特網站上的旅遊活動視為聖雅各之路 (一個重要的朝聖旅遊聖地) 酒店服務需求的預測器，這會否是合適的呢?

本研究比較 SARIMA 時間序列模型與附有外生變數 (SARIMAX)模型兩者在預測旅遊及酒店服務需求方面的表現。為此，研究人員收集在推特網站上發佈的資訊，作為外生變數進行研究。這個樣本涵蓋於2018年1月至2022年9月期間110,456個發佈資訊。

研究結果確認了傳統的時間序列模型，若涵蓋推特網站上的旅遊活動，則其對旅遊需求方面的預測會得到顯著的改善。推特網站的數據，就改善預測實時旅遊需求的準確度，或許可成為有效的工具; 而這發現對旅遊管理會有一定的意義。本研究亦讓我們進一步瞭解朝聖旅遊方面旅客的數碼足跡。

現存文獻甚少探討朝聖旅遊的數字化，而本研究不但在這方面充實了有關的文獻，還使用了一個根據推特網站上使用者原創內容嶄新的方法框架，進行分析和探討。這會幫助酒店從業人員把社交媒體數據轉變為可供酒店管理之用的合宜資訊。

The variance between the winning bid and the owner's estimated cost (OEC) is one of the construction management risks in the pre-tendering phase. The study aims to enhance the quality of the owner's estimation for predicting precisely the contract cost at the pre-tendering phase and avoiding future issues that arise through the construction phase.

This paper integrated artificial neural networks (ANN), deep neural networks (DNN) and time series (TS) techniques to estimate the ratio of a low bid to the OEC (R) for different size contracts and three types of contracts (building, electric and mechanic) accurately based on 94 contracts from King Saud University. The ANN and DNN models were evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean sum square error (MSSE) and root mean sums square error (RMSSE).

The main finding is that the ANN provides high accuracy with MAPE, MSSE and RMSSE a 2.94%, 0.0015 and 0.039, respectively. The DNN's precision was high, with an RMSSE of 0.15 on average.

The owner and consultant are expected to use the study's findings to create more accuracy of the owner's estimate and decrease the difference between the owner's estimate and the lowest submitted offer for better decision-making.

This study fills the knowledge gap by developing an ANN model to handle missing TS data and forecasting the difference between a low bid and an OEC at the pre-tendering phase.

By focusing on Sustainable Development Goal 12 (SDG 12) and tourism automation, this perspective paper aims to investigate how tourism and automation will work to create a world in which tourism has more sustainable production and consumption patterns.

This perspective paper reviews the past developments of automation in tourism in the context of sustainable production and consumption patterns, the lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic and looks at the future of tourism and how automation will help it be more sustainable in terms of consumption and production patterns.

The insights from this analysis suggest that automation technologies will play a major role in both the supply and demand sides of the tourism and hospitality industry, encouraging increased tourism sustainability. While automation technologies will have the greatest impact on the supply side in the near future, as such technologies will be used to minimise waste and energy usage, creating large gains for environmental protection, the technologies will also benefit responsible consumption. Big data and analytical technologies will work in ways to ensure that consumers are nudged into consumer practices that are increasingly sustainable.

This perspective paper synthesises the literature on the subjects, namely, automation and SDG 12 in tourism, and points to important new future research agenda. This is one of the first papers in tourism to blend automation and SDG 12 literature to shed light on the use of automation in sustainable consumption and production in tourism.

通过聚焦于可持续发展目标12和旅游自动化, 本前瞻性文章旨在探讨旅游业和自动化如何共同创造一个让旅游产业拥有更可持续的生产和消费模式的世界。

本文回顾了旅游自动化在可持续生产和消费模式背景下的发展, 从COVID-19大流行中学到的教训, 并展望旅游业的未来以及自动化如何帮助其在消费和生产模式方面变得更加可持续。

根据分析, 自动化技术将在旅游和酒店业的供求两侧发挥重要作用, 促进旅游业的可持续性发展。虽然自动化技术在近期内将对供应侧产生最大影响, 因为这些技术将被用来最小化废物和能源使用, 为环境保护创造巨大收益, 但这些技术也将惠及负责任消费。大数据和分析技术将以确保消费者被引导向越来越可持续的消费实践。

本前瞻性论文综合了关于旅游中的自动化和可持续发展目标12的文献, 并指出了重要的新的未来研究议程。这是旅游业中第一批结合自动化和可持终发展目标12文献以阐明旅游中可持续消费和生产的自动化使用的论文之一。

Al centrarse en el ODS12 y la automatización del turismo, este artículo de perspectiva pretende investigar cómo el turismo y la automatización trabajarán para crear un mundo en el que el turismo tenga unos patrones de producción y consumo más sostenibles.

Este artículo de perspectiva revisa los desarrollos pasados de la automatización en el turismo en el contexto de los patrones de producción y consumo sostenibles, las lecciones aprendidas de la pandemia COVID-19, y examina el futuro del turismo y cómo la automatización le ayudará a ser más sostenible en términos de patrones de consumo y producción.

Las conclusiones de este análisis sugieren que las tecnologías de automatización desempeñarán un papel importante tanto en la oferta como en la demanda de la industria del turismo y la hotelería, fomentando una mayor sostenibilidad del turismo. Mientras que las tecnologías de automatización tendrán el mayor impacto en el lado de la oferta en un futuro próximo, ya que dichas tecnologías se utilizarán para minimizar los residuos y el uso de energía, creando grandes ganancias para la protección del medio ambiente, las tecnologías también beneficiarán al consumo responsable. Los macrodatos y las tecnologías analíticas funcionarán de manera que se incite a los consumidores a adoptar prácticas de consumo cada vez más sostenibles.

Este documento de perspectiva sintetiza la bibliografía sobre los temas, a saber, la automatización y el ODS12 en el turismo, y apunta a una nueva e importante agenda de investigación futura. Se trata de uno de los primeros trabajos sobre turismo que combina la literatura sobre automatización y ODS12 para arrojar luz sobre el uso de la automatización en el consumo y la producción sostenibles en el turismo.

Since conducting agile strategies provides sustainable passenger satisfaction and revenue by replacing applied policies with more profitable ones rapidly, the focus of this study is to evaluate agile attributes for managing low-cost carriers (LCCs) operations by means of resources and competences based on dynamic capabilities built on resource-based view (RBV) theory and to achieve sustainable competitive advantage in a volatile and dynamic air transport environment. LCCs in Turkey are also evaluated in this study since the competition among LCCs is high to gain market share and they can adapt quickly to all kinds of circumstances.

Two well-known Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods (MCDM) named as the Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA) and multi-attributive border approximation area comparison (MABAC) methods by employing Picture fuzzy sets (PiFS) are employed to determine weight of agile attributes and superiority of LCCs based on agile attributes in the market, respectively. To check the consistency and robustness of the results for the proposed approach, comparative and sensitivity analysis are performed at the end of the study.

While the ranking orders of agile attributes are Strategic Responsiveness (AG1), Financial Management (AG4), Quality (AG2), Digital integration (AG3) and Reliability (AG5), respectively, LCC2 is selected as the best agile airline company in Turkey with respect to agile attributes. SWARA and MABAC method based on PiFS is appropriate and effective method to evaluate agile attributes that has important reference value for the airline companies in aviation industry.

The findings of this study will support managers in the airline industry to conduct airline operations more flexibly and effectively to take sustainable competitive advantage in unexpected and dynamic environment.

To the author' best knowledge, this study is the first developed to identify the attributes necessary to increase agility in LCCs. Thus, as a systematic tool, a framework is developed for the implementation of agile attributes to achieve sustainable competitive advantage in the airline industry and presented a roadmap for airline managers to deal with crises and challenging situations by satisfying customer and increasing competitiveness.

After completion of the case study, the participants would be able to understand the challenges in building a sustainable homestay tourism business; develop a positioning statement for La Pinekonez which builds a unique competitive advantage; and outline elements of the business strategy to profitably sustain and grow a sustainable tourism homestay in terms of service offering, pricing, marketing and operations.

La Pinekonez Homestay, located in the beautiful region of Himachal Pradesh, India, is the subject of this case study, which explores both its successes and its difficulties. In August 2022, Arvind, the dedicated sole proprietor of La Pinekonez, grappled with multifaceted challenges, the first being the foray of established hotel chains into the homestay business. As the protagonist, was is in dilemma of preserving La Pinekonez’s unique identity amidst corporate competitors, particularly with regards to differentiating from the expanding hotel chains. The clash between customer expectations for hotel-like amenities and the homestay’s commitment to sustainable tourism presented a crucial challenge. Negative reviews questioning the authenticity of La Pinekonez’s green initiatives heightened the complexity. Adding to Arvind’s predicament were the seasonal fluctuations in tourist inflow and his aspiration to embrace immersive tourism trends. This case study facilitates exploration of strategic positioning, sustainability management and marketing strategies in the dynamic and competitive hospitality industry. It also offers insights into the complexities of balancing differentiation, customer satisfaction and sustainability while navigating the evolving landscape of tourism trends.

This case study is suitable for students of tourism and hospitality management at postgraduate level. The case study can be discussed once the basic concepts of hospitality management and service dimensions are covered.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CCS 12: Tourism and hospitality.

Output from the Irish Dairy Industry has grown rapidly since the abolition of quotas in 2015, with processors investing heavily in capacity expansion to deal with the extra milk volumes. Further capacity gains may be achieved by extending the processing season into the winter, a key enabler for which being the reduction of duration of the winter maintenance overhaul period. This paper aims to investigate if Lean Six Sigma tools and techniques can be used to enhance operational maintenance performance, thereby releasing additional processing capacity.

Combining the Six-Sigma Define, Measure, Analyse, Improve, Control (DMAIC) methodology and the structured approach of Turnaround Maintenance (TAM) widely used in process industries creates a novel hybrid model that promises substantial improvement in maintenance overhaul execution. This paper presents a case study applying the DMAIC/TAM model to Ireland’s largest dairy processing site to optimise the annual maintenance shutdown. The objective was to deliver a 30% reduction in the duration of the overhaul, enabling an extension of the processing season.

Application of the DMAIC/TAM hybrid resulted in process enhancements, employee engagement and a clear roadmap for the operations team. Project goals were delivered, and original objectives exceeded, resulting in €8.9m additional value to the business and a reduction of 36% in the duration of the overhaul.

The results demonstrate that the model provides a structure that promotes systematic working and a continuous improvement focus that can have substantial benefits for wider industry. Opportunities for further model refinement were identified and will enhance performance in subsequent overhauls.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that the structure and tools of DMAIC and TAM have been combined into a hybrid methodology and applied in an Irish industrial setting.

This study aims to analyse how the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies can help different types of agri-food supply chains introduce and manage innovations in response to the challenges and opportunities that emerged following the COVID-19 pandemic.

A systematic literature review methodology was used to bring together the most relevant contributions from different disciplines and provide comprehensive results on the use of I4.0 technologies in the agri-food industry.

Four technological clusters are identified, which group together the I4.0 technologies based on the applications in the agri-food industry, the objectives and the advantages provided. In addition, three types of agri-food supply chains have been identified and their configuration and dynamics have been studied. Finally, the I4.0 technologies most suited for each type of supply chain have been identified, and suggestions on how to effectively introduce and manage innovations at different levels of the supply chain are provided.

The study highlights how the effective adoption of I4.0 technologies in the agri-food industry depends on the characteristics of the supply chains. Technologies can be used for different purposes and managers should carefully consider the objectives to be achieved and the synergies between technologies and supply chain dynamics.

COVID-19 has affected the economies adversely from all sides. The sudden halt in production has impacted both the supply and demand sides. It calls for analysis to quantify the impact of the reduction in economic activity on the economy-wide variables so that appropriate steps can be taken. This study aims to evaluate the sensitivity of various sectors of the Indian economy to this dual shock.

The eight-sector open economy general equilibrium Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model has been simulated to evaluate the sector-specific effects of a fall in economic activity due to COVID-19. This model uses an economy-wide accounting framework to quantify the impact of a shock on the given equilibrium economy and report the post-simulation new equilibrium values.

The empirical results state that welfare for the Indian economy falls to the tune of 7.70% due to output shock. Because of demand–supply linkages, it also impacts the inter- and intra-industry flows, demand for factors of production and imports. There is a momentous fall in the demand for factor endowments from all sectors. Among those, the trade-hotel-transport and manufacturing sectors are in the first two positions from the top. The study recommends an immediate revival of the manufacturing and trade-hotel-transport sectors to get the Indian economy back on track.

The present study has modified the existing GTAP model accounting framework through unemployment and output closures to account for the impact of change in sectoral output due to COVID-19 on the level of employment and other macroeconomic variables.