Search results

The author, a veteran futurist, aims to trace the history of the scenario process, starting with those developed by the Shell team that anticipated an OPEC manipulation of oil supplies and prices that occurred in 1973. Largely on the basis of the Shell scenario's brilliant insight, the methodology initially seemed to offer organizations a chance to bet on the future before it happened.

The paper describes how the best practices in the scenario process identified in this historical review can be adopted by current leaders.

The paper reveals that, in cases where the scenarios have effectively influenced corporate decision making, it was because the scenario team stayed together to execute the foresights they reached in the scenario process.”

Scenarios encourage strategic thinking about long‐term futures and potential discontinuities in a world that obsesses about the short‐term.

The paper concludes that scenarios, to be most effective, demand a rigor that consumes time and resources. They require leaders to open conduits to information, promote group interactions, encourage disciplined imagination and demand persistent follow‐through.

This paper first reviews factor reconstructability analysis (RA) modelling completely by data. Gives a description of levelled variable factor reconstruction analysis model generation process and its further extension to forecasting, evaluation and optimisation. It introduces RA modelling with multi‐variety information and knowledge. From generation of mixed variable RA models to generation of models with both data and knowledge, the paper gives a related table and a figure on “Information flow of reconstructability analysis with multi‐variety information and knowledge” which included database, RA relational knowledge base, and interfaces for input of experts' knowledge. Finally, it gives some examples and prospects.

This experimental study investigates the connotative (measured) meaning of the concept “auditor independence” within three audit engagement case contexts, including two acknowledged in the literature to represent significant potential threats to independence. The study’s research design utilises the measurement of meaning (semantic differential) framework originally proposed by Osgood et al. (1957). Findings indicate that research participants considered the concept of independence within a two factor cognitive structure comprising “emphasis” and “variability” dimensions. Participants’ connotations of independence varied along both these dimensions in response to the alternative experimental case scenarios. In addition, participants’ perceptions of the auditor’s independence in the three cases were systematically associated with the identified connotative meaning dimensions.

This conceptual paper aims to shed light on the nature and determinants of managerial behaviour when affected by supply chain disruptions. It aims to argue that the managerial decision‐making process is an important component in determining the eventual long‐term impact of a supply chain disruption.

The paper introduces a continuous simulation model that is based on a Bayesian robot decision‐maker. Using the system dynamics approach, it illustrates the process of evaluating competing hypotheses of functional vs dysfunctional supply chain design in a disruption scenario. Model validity is assessed by means of a case study based on secondary data.

The model provides insight into the drivers of decision‐maker confidence dynamics that are used when evaluating the competing hypotheses. Furthermore, it identifies the psychological distortions that make actual managerial inference processes different from the Bayesian robot and incorporate these adjustments into the system dynamics model. Several propositions about the nature and determinants of decision‐maker confidence are stated.

For policy makers, the paper clarifies the important moderating role of confidence in the realisation of wider implications of supply chain disruptions, especially from the perspective of industrial development, and trade and transport facilitation.

The research enhances understanding of the wider implications of supply chain disruptions, contributing to behavioural research in logistics and supply chain management.

Ethical issues and moral reasoning are important in the tax policy context because shared moral values create good societies (Paul et al., 2006). This study of the equitable relief subset of the innocent spouse rules is a good example of Congressional and IRS policy that has been substantially reformed twice (and continues to be reassessed) to create tax law that effectively treats innocent spouses equitably (Fleischman & Shen, 1999). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the degree to which subjects' moral reasoning, using the first two steps of Rest's (1986) ethical reasoning model, is related to perceived moral intensity (Jones, 1991) in several tax-based equitable relief situations. Integrative social contracts theory provides the study's theoretical lens.

Subjects evaluated a mailed-questionnaire containing two separate equitable relief scenarios about a spouse who was unaware of her husband's tax evasion – one scenario included verbal abuse and the other scenario contained no such abuse. The survey also contained a variety of ethics and attitudinal measures used to measure the study's focal variables. The results support the a priori hypotheses that moral intensity is positively related to recognition of an ethical issue, judgment that the ethical scenario is unethical, and judgment to grant equitable relief. In addition, the scenario containing emotional abuse was associated with increased levels of moral intensity as compared to the scenario that did not contain abuse. The paper concludes with a discussion of both professional and public policy implications.

Why do respected planners so often fail to predict seismic events? Here are some reasons, and a better way to plan: scenario planning.

Commentators have claimed that business schools encourage unethical behavior by using economic theory as a basis for education. We examine claims that exposure to agency theory acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy, reducing ethical behavior among business students. We experimentally test whether economics coursework or a manipulated competitive vs. cooperative frame affects measured ethical behavior in simulated decision settings. We measure ethical behavior using established tasks. We also measure ethical recognition to test whether agency theory reduces recognition of ethical issues. Exposure to agency theory in either prior classwork or the experiment increased wealth-increasing unethical behavior. We found no effect on unethical behavior that does not affect wealth. We found no effect of exposure to agency theory on ethical recognition. Usual laboratory experiment limitations apply. Future research can examine why agency theory reduces ethical behavior. Educators ought to consider unintended consequences of the language and assumptions of theories that underlie education. Students may assume descriptions of how people behave as prescriptions for how people ought to behave. This study contributes to the literature on economic education and ethics. We found no prior experimental studies of the effect of economics education on ethical behavior.

This study aims to contribute novel insights into understanding and mitigating the harmful consequences of abusive supervision (AS) by examining the association between AS experiences, revenge, forgiveness, and the moderating role of emotional intelligence (EI). The key argument is that employees' EI can influence the AS experience through affective processes, countering supervisors' abusive behaviors.

A between-person scenario-based experiment was conducted with 366 participants divided into AS and control groups. The study explored the association between AS experience and revenge/forgiveness, mediated by core affect (valence and activation). EI abilities were measured as a moderator. Data analysis examined the relationships and interactions among AS, revenge/forgiveness, EI, and affective experiences.

The study reveals significant findings indicating that AS experiences were positively associated with revenge and negatively associated with forgiveness. The mediation analysis confirmed the role of core affect in these relationships. EI emerged as a moderator, shaping the association between AS experiences and revenge/forgiveness. Importantly, participants with higher EI exhibited lower revenge intentions, demonstrating the potential of EI to mitigate the adverse effects of AS. Unexpectedly, individuals with high EI also expressed fewer forgiveness intentions.

This study provides a comprehensive understanding of how employees can effectively counterbalance the impact of AS through higher levels of strategic EI. Examining core affect as a mediator offers novel insights into coping mechanisms in response to AS experiences and their consequences.

The study acknowledges several limitations, as the scenarios may only partially capture the complexities of real-life AS situations. The focus on a specific context and the sample characteristics limit the generalizability of the findings. Future research should explore diverse organizational contexts and employ longitudinal designs.

The findings have practical implications for organizations as enhancing employees' EI skills through training programs interventions and integrating EI into organizational culture and leadership conduct.

This study examines contextual influences on taxpayers’ perceptions of a vague “low” probability of detection and the relationship between taxpayers’ perceptions and their likelihood to take questionable tax deductions. As such, we tie psychological theories that explain differential interpretations of qualitative probability phrases (base rate and support theories) to the taxpayer perception literature. Consistent with our hypotheses, taxpayers’ interpretations of “low” differ both between and within subjects, depending on the context in which deductions are presented. On average, our taxpayer subjects are less likely to take questionable deductions perceived to have a higher probability of detection than those perceived to have a lower detection probability. Our results contribute to existing literature by demonstrating that knowledge of subjects’ assessments of an event's probability is integral to designing experiments and drawing conclusions regarding observed behavior. This appears necessary even when researchers provide assessments of detection probabilities and/or employ scenarios for which systematic differences in probability perceptions are not inherently obvious.

Adopting the theoretical framework of Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy (REBT; Ellis, 1962, 1994), we examine the cognitive antecedents of functional behavior and adaptive emotions as indicators of emotional intelligence (EI) and test central assumptions of REBT. In an extension of REBT, we posit that adaptive emotions resulting from rational cognitions reflect more EI than maladaptive emotions, which result from irrational cognitions, because the former lead to functional behavior. The results of the first study using organizational scenarios in an experimental design confirm central assumptions of REBT and support our hypotheses. In a second correlational study we replicate the connection between rational cognitions and EI by measuring real person data using psychometric scales. Both studies indicate that irrational attitudes result in reduced job satisfaction.