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The spread of bird flu outside of Asia, particularly in Africa and Europe, topped headlines in 2006. The migration of wild birds brought the virus to Europe, where for the first time it spread to productive livestock, bringing it closer to the Western world. Due to today's globalized and highly interconnected world, the consequences of a potential bird flu pandemic are expected to be much more severe than those of the Spanish flu, which killed 50-100 million people between 1918 and 1921. A vaccine for the bird virus is currently not available. As of July 2006, 232 cases of human infection had been documented, mostly through direct contact with poultry. Of those, 134 people died. The best medication available to treat bird flu was Roche's antiviral drug Tamiflu. However, Tamiflu was not widely available; current orders of government bodies would not be fulfilled until the end of 2008. Well aware that today's avian flu might become a global pandemic comparable to the Spanish flu, Roche CEO Franz Humer had to decide how Roche should respond. While the pharmaceutical industry continued its research efforts on vaccines and medications, Tamiflu could play an important role by protecting healthcare workers and helping to contain the virus---or at least slow down its spread. Due to patent protection and a complicated production process with scarce raw ingredients, Roche had been the only producer of the drug. Partly in response to U.S. political pressure, in November 2005 Roche allowed Gilead to produce Tamiflu as well. Even so, it would take at least until late 2007 for Roche and Gilead to meet the orders of governments worldwide. The issue was a difficult one for Roche: What were the risks; what were the opportunities? If a pandemic occurred before sufficient stockpiles of Tamiflu had been built up, would Roche be held responsible? What steps, if any, should Roche take with respect to patent protection and production licensing in the shadow of a potential pandemic?

Students will weigh the benefits of short-term profit maximization against the risks that a highly uncertain event could pose to a business and consider nonstandard approaches to mitigate these risks. Students will discuss the challenges of addressing low-probability, high-impact events; potential conflicts with the short-term view of the stock market and analyst community; and challenges of the patent protection model for drugs for life-threatening diseases.

Josh Williams is a Student at the NAU who has driven buses on campus and wants to improve the transportation on campus. He is convinced that purchasing a new type of bus that is more fuel efficient, has larger capacity, better designed for boarding, and has a longer life is worth the higher purchase cost. He sets out to prove it by creating a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. Since many of the estimates for the DCF analysis are uncertain, he decides to perform a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) analysis. Students are asked to step into Josh’s role and perform the analysis.

Josh Williams was a Student in the authors’ MBA program. Both authors teach in this program and one author was the Advisor for Net Impact and worked with Josh to present his idea to the university administration. The authors have changed a name or two but otherwise, the case describes a real situation in a real organization without disguise.

The authors have used this case in a first semester MBA-Applied Management course, Decision Modeling and Simulation. Students already have experience with DCF analysis and have been introduced to MCS. With this case, students apply MCS at the conclusion of a three-week module on predictive analytics. Students have run at least two MCS models and have become comfortable with the software. The case would also be appropriate for a senior-level undergraduate course such as business analytics or management science. It might also be useful for other courses that include the MCS modeling technique learning objectives such as project management.

This case provides an opportunity for students to perform an MCS analysis. MCS is useful when many of the inputs to a DCF analysis (or any model) have been estimated and the modeler is concerned that the estimates are uncertain and could perhaps be a range of values. MCS can be used to understand the effect of this uncertainty on NPV which in turn may affect the decision. The case could also be used without MCS focusing just on the DCF analysis with deterministic sensitivity analysis.

The learning outcomes of this paper are as follows: to understand the context of seaport logistics and supply chain design structure, to apply Monte Carlo simulation in the interface of the supply chain and to analyze the Monte Carlo simulation algorithm and statistical techniques for identifying the key seaport logistics factors.

It was 9:00 p.m. on November 10, 2020, and Nishadh Amonkar, the CEO of OCTO supply chain management (SCM) was glued to the television watching the final cricket match of the Indian Premier League, 2020. Amonkar’s mobile phone rang and it was a call from Vinod Nair, a member Logistics Panel of Ranji Industries Federation. Nair informed Amonkar that it was related to the rejection of several export consignments of agricultural products from Ranji (in the western part of India). The rejection was due to the deterioration in the quality of the exported agricultural products during transit from Ranji to various locations in Europe.

This course is suitable at the MBA level for the following courses: Operations research (Focus/Session: Applications on Monte Carlo Simulation). SCM (Focus/Session: Global SCM, Logistics Planning, Distribution Network). Logistics management (Focus/Session: Transportation Planning). Business statistics (Focus/Session: Application of Hypothesis Testing).

Teaching Notes are available for educators only.

CSS 9: Operations and logistics.

The learning outcomes are as follows: introduce the concept of the decision-making process, decision-making unit and hierarchy of effects and marketing strategy; identify the critical aspect of segmentation, targeting and positioning; and highlight the critical element of pricing and communication media.

In early January 2017, Mr Ashish and Mr Rahul, co-founders of Biziga, a company engaged in training through simulation for management education, was at crossroads. Keeping in view the challenges of the emerging Indian market, Biziga envisioned creating participant-centric business learning simulations. The initial responses and feedback received from several top B-schools were promising. However, the euphoria did not last long. Biziga retained only a few of its initial clients from the Tier-1 B-schools who had adopted the product. But the response received from other categories of B-schools was not very encouraging. Acquiring new clients from these institutes was the major challenge. The founders of Biziga had differences in their thought about the strategic path they should pursue to achieve future growth. There were several options to achieve the goal of a target revenue of INR 1bn in the next five years and be known as a virtual gamification company with a complete bundle of business simulation products. They had to finalize for the financial year 2017-18 the most feasible and promising option/s that would have a long-term impact on the company’s future growth and success in the upcoming meeting scheduled in the last week of February 2017.

Postgraduate students and executive students.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 8: Marketing.

Students should be able to: identify the elements of business processes; analyze efficiency measures; identify and define causes of poor efficiency in business process; analyze the results of a simulation model; propose process redesign alternatives based on the analysis; and acknowledge the challenges for improving public service processes.

The process to get a passport seems to be very simple, but Jose Hernandez, a Manufacturing Plant Director, has had bad experiences the past three times he has visited the passport office. He and his family have spent more than 3 h to get the passport for his little daughter, Maria. In this case, the authors illustrate the process analysis performed by Jose to find effective and efficient solutions to the problems that he found. The case study guides students through the analysis of a business process in public service from the perspective of the users. The students participating in the case analysis will not only learn to diagnose and describe the process but also to redesign it to achieve significant improvements. Furthermore, the students will realize that adding more resources to the process may not solve the fundamental issues, but analytical and creative skills are needed. In addition, the teaching notes provide a discussion about the existing challenges to improve public service processes.

Management and engineering undergraduate programs, operations management and business process design in Master of Business Administration programs.

Teaching Notes are available for educators only.

CSS 9: Operations and Logistics.

This case builds on the case "Merck & Company: Product KL-798" (UVA-QA-0582) by providing market uncertainties for the drug (drug quality, the presence of a competitor, market growth, and the time to the drug's release). Student and faculty spreadsheets are provided for the calculation of net present values for the scenarios. There is an additional challenge of how to treat the several downstream decisions (using OptQuest, for example) and how to value the license opportunity. A teaching note is also available to registered faculty members.

Financial management, corporate finance, strategic management, managerial accounting and project management.

The case is suitable for courses such as MBA, Bachelor level business courses (in finance, business strategy) and training programs for working executives.

The case study deals with financial and strategic appraisal of a unique coal-to-liquid project. India imported about two thirds of its crude oil requirements resulting in huge outflow of precious foreign exchange. As a result, it became necessary for the country to look for alternative sources of energy. The coal-to-liquid (CTL) technology of coal gasification offers a credible alternative source of fuels as proved by Sasol of South Africa. The Government of India short-listed Global Synfuels Company (name changed) as one of the selected few companies to build a CTL project. While the project is strategically important to the company and highly desirable for the country, there are serious doubts about the commercial viability of the project because of which the company is in dilemma whether to go ahead with the project. The case study presents this decision dilemma in a very interesting way and will be useful for teaching courses in corporate finance and strategic management.

The case can be used to engage participants to make a SWOT analysis for a new business opportunity, discuss environmental and financial issues facing a company, use DCF techniques to evaluate the project viability, carry out scenario analysis of the project to the changes in variables as well as challenge the participants to generate strategies for the success of a new project. Participants would also develop a better understanding of: environmental issues involved in CTL projects and new technologies to deal with such issues; and the employment impact of large projects such as the CTL.

Teaching notes are available; please consult your librarian for access.

1. Probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions

2. Decision tree to find the expected monetary value (EMV) of different options.

3. Monte Carlo simulation for risk analysis.

4. Risk analysis in project management.

Learners will be able to understand and apply the following: how to approach uncertainty in business decisions using probabilistic calculations of cost, and profit/loss using standard probability functions; how to address uncertainty in business decisions by looking forward and reasoning backward, using the decision tree technique and the EMV of different decisions; how to analyse the risk inherent in business decisions by incorporating probability distributions for all critical variables in the form of Monte Carlo simulation; and appreciation of strategic considerations in risk analysis as it applies to project management

The case describes the challenge facing Vilas Birari, the owner and chief executive of Harsh Constructions, a construction company headquartered in Nasik, India. Birari had to decide on the bid for a construction project in September of 2021, during the COVID-19 (COVID) pandemic. Due to successive waves of the pandemic, the state and federal governments announced lockdowns intermittently, causing uncertainty in costs related to labor, material and project completion. The dilemma before Birari was how to set a bid price that was not so low as to incur a loss and not so high as to lose the bid to competitors. The uncertainty made Birari’s decision-making complex. The case invites students to help Birari find an optimum bid price by using various quantitative techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees.

This case is intended for students of management at a master’s level, in an elective course on management science, which is often also known as decision science. This compact case can be positioned in the second half of the course, when exploring risk management using computer simulation as a tool. The case serves both as an introduction to using simulation to manage uncertainty as well a contrast with simpler methods that are covered earlier in the course.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 7: Management Science.

Spiegel Online (www.spiegel.de) is the leading news Web site in Germany. The site was first designed to accompany Der Spiegel, one of Europe's largest and Germany's most influential weekly magazine, which has a weekly circulation of around one million. The site's content is produced by a team of more than fifty journalists writing in several categories: politics, business, networld, panorama, arts and entertainment, science, university, school, sports, travel, weather, and automobiles. The original content is complemented by articles purchased from news agencies and selected articles from the print edition. Spiegel-Verlag is a major contributor to the Hamburg Media School, which offers professional master's degree programs in Media Management (MBA), film, and journalism. In their second year, MBA students typically engage in consulting projects with major media companies. In a recent assignment, Spiegel Online posed two questions to the MBA team: are there any chances for an economically successful entry into the market for interactive classifieds? And if so, what should the business model look like in detail? A student team analyzed markets for classified ads and found one market segment that appeared to be particularly promising: the market for art objects. During the development of a business plan for a new venture in this market it became apparent that there is much uncertainty about the key input parameters to the business plan. As a result, it is very difficult to assess the viability of the business idea. How can the team properly account for the uncertain input parameters? What is the impact of this uncertainty on the bottom line? Will a Web site for art objects earn or lose money? How can the team communicate this uncertainty to a group of high-level decision makers who want a simple “go or no-go” recommendation?

The objective is to make students aware of the applicability of Monte Carlo simulation to the analysis of complex business plans. Students should learn how to explicitly account for uncertain inputs in a business plan, how to assess the impact of uncertainty on the bottom line via Monte Carlo simulation, and how to communicate the results of their analysis to high-level decision makers.

Crisis management, reputation and brand management, corporate communication, logistics, organization strategy.

Post-graduate and executive education.

The Eyjafjallajökull Iceland Volcano erupted on April 14, 2010, causing an estimated loss of US$1.7 billion for the aviation industry. At one stage in this weeklong event, 1.2 million passengers were affected with 100,000 flights being grounded across Europe. This case documents the way Etihad, a leading global airline company managed the crisis and continues to learn for future scenarios.

Adaptation strategies, reputation management, brand management, crisis planning and implementation, communication and stakeholder management, scenario analysis.

Teaching notes.