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This study aims to examine the underlying statements with regard to strategic directions and action programmes on tourism found in the state-of-the-nation address (SONA) speeches of six Philippine presidents – from 1987 to 2019. The researchers believe that president SONAs are usually reflective of their plans and are strong indicators of their interest, which could particularly influence the Philippine tourism planning and development. Currently, the lack of guidance in the theoretical framework and research discussion in exploring the Philippine tourism policy and development priorities using presidents’ SONA speeches are found wanting. Scenario planning approach was used as a framework.

Scenario planning approach requires inputs from an advisory group to create scenario drivers. As inputs, the presidents’ SONA speeches were used in this study while the researchers assumed the role of scenario thinkers. The speeches were downloaded and imported into a qualitative data software. Through a series of text search with regard to strategic directions and action programmes on tourism, underlying statements were subjected to content analysis to create nodes. The nodes were used as the basis in creating scenario drivers, which became the basis in creating the model. The models underwent the following validation procedures: researcher, concept and literature review.

Based on the data, there are three identified major drivers of the present and future of Philippine tourism; these are tourism policy, tourism development and prospects for the future (temporal element). It also indicates tourism development and temporal element as dominant, with very few on tourism policies. By combining the tourism policy and tourism development, the development of the tourism policy and development confluence model was created. Meanwhile, the addition of the temporal element provided a third scenario driver that led to the creation of the dimensions of tourism policy and development scenarios.

The developed model can be adapted to many contexts that extend even outside of tourism. The public tourism offices, such as the department of tourism and the regional, provincial, city and municipal tourism offices, can use the model to help them prioritise tourism development programmes and lobby for tourism policy creation.

The model will significantly assist decision-makers and policymakers to be conscious in crafting and enacting their tourism plans and programmes. It presents tourism policy and tourism development as scenario drivers that are interrelated; hence, a mutual relationship between the executive and legislative sectors of the government can be expected.

The study positions its originality and value in three areas: scenario planning, tourism future and president’s interest in tourism. In terms of scenario planning, the study was able to present interaction among three scenario drivers compared to most models that only have two. In the area of tourism future studies, this study claims that qualitative historical data can also be used to predict future scenarios. Despite the limited literature examining the tourism interest of the top-level administration, using speeches made by head of state is found plausible to predict the future of Philippine tourism.

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the scenario planning approach developed and used by the European Tourism Futures Institute (ETFI).

This paper contains the following sections: mission and aims of the research group; epistemological and methodological positioning, conceptual framework and research lines for an applied scenario planning approach.

This paper highlights the research methodology of the scenario planning group of the European Tourism Research Institute. It provides insight in the research foundations of the scenario planning approach in a tourism context and ETFI's conceptual framework for scenario planning.

The paper provides an insight to how Europe's first tourism futures research centre developed and uses a conceptual framework for scenario planning thus demonstrating best practice success.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the existing scenarios for 3D printing (3DP) in order to identify the “white space” where future opportunities have not been proposed or developed to date. Based around aspects of order penetration points, geographical scope and type of manufacturing, these gaps are identified.

A structured literature review has been carried out on both academic and trade publications. As of the end of May 2016, this identified 128 relevant articles containing 201 future scenarios. Coding these against aspects of existing manufacturing and supply chain theory has led to the development of a framework to identify “white space” in the existing thinking.

The coding shows that existing future scenarios are particularly concentrated on job shop applications and pull-based supply chain processes, although there are fewer constraints on geographical scope. Five distinct areas of “white space” are proposed, reflecting various opportunities for future 3DP supply chain development.

Being a structured literature review, there are potentially articles not identified through the search criteria used. The nature of the findings is also dependent upon the coding criteria selected. However, these are theoretically derived and reflect important aspect of strategic supply chain management.

Practitioners may wish to explore the development of business models within the “white space” areas.

Currently, existing future 3DP scenarios are scattered over a wide, multi-disciplinary literature base. By providing a consolidated view of these scenarios, it is possible to identify gaps in current thinking. These gaps are multi-disciplinary in nature and represent opportunities for both academics and practitioners to exploit.

The transportation system in any city is complex and evolving, shaped by various driving forces and uncertainties in the social, economic, technological, political and environmental situations. Its development and demands upon it cannot be projected by simply extrapolating past and current trends. This paper aims to present a foresight study examining the future of urban mobility, focusing on the dense Asian city-state of Singapore. The objective is to develop scenarios for the future of urban mobility, to facilitate future policy implementation by highlighting long term challenges and opportunities for transportation planning in cities.

To create future scenarios, the authors first sought to identify key drivers of change through environmental scanning, expert interviews, focus group discussions and technology scanning. These drivers of change were subsequently used in a scenario planning workshop, organized to co-create alternative future visions for urban mobility 2040 with experts and local stakeholders.

Two scenarios emerged, called the Shared World and the Virtual World. For each scenario, the authors described the key features in terms of dominant transport modes for the movements of passengers and freight. Subsequently, the authors discussed possible implications of each scenario to the individual, society, industry and government.

As cities grow and develop, city and transport planners should not only address daily operational issues but also develop a well-informed, long-term understanding of the evolving mobility system to address challenges that lie beyond the five- or even ten-year horizon. By using scenario planning approach, the authors hope to prepare stakeholders for the uncertain futures that are continuously shaped by the decisions today.

Meat overconsumption by tourists is one of the key issues in the sustainability of tourist destinations. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact that a promotion of meatless gastronomy and its actual increased availability would have on the attractiveness and visitation of a popular European urban destination.

The research uses an innovative foresight approach that combines environmental scanning and scenarios. The authors formulated the scenarios using the Delphi technique and working with 27 scholars whose insights into the topic were enhanced through theses that resulted from the environmental scanning. They provided their insights into how a promotion of meatless gastronomy would affect a destination. Subsequently, the authors synthetized their insights and formulated the scenarios.

Based on two defined scenarios, the authors found that a meatless image represents an opportunity for the future development of an urban European destination. A long-term growth in visitor numbers can be achieved while ensuring environmental, economic and socio-cultural sustainability providing that relevant stakeholders are involved in the promotional activities.

Management of tourists' unsustainable eating habits is currently an unexplored issue. The present research addresses this topic and provides valuable insights that will help to address sustainability issues while making tourism destinations more attractive.

The purpose of this study is to measure the predictive value of future scenarios prepared using horizon scanning. The future scenarios prepared at the initiative of the Japanese Government have had low predictive value. They have frequently failed to contribute to industrial development and caused social loss. Horizon scanning, which is a key methodology applied in foresight activities, has begun to be used in countries as part of their national innovation systems in lieu of conventional forecasting methods based on the assumption of technological innovation. Research was conducted to actually measure the predictive value of future scenarios prepared using horizon scanning.

An online survey in Japan was conducted on ordinary people’s attitudes. The questionnaires presented 20 scenarios regarding future society, which were created with the conventional method or horizon scanning method.

Survey results verified that horizon scanning-based scenarios provided significantly higher predictive value than scenarios prepared using conventional methods.

Implication 1: By eliminating bias in input data and perspectives adopted when considering scenarios, it may be expected that scenarios will be derived that have even higher “predictive value.” Implication 2: By setting the layers of anticipated outputs high and the fields broad, it may be expected that scenarios will be derived that have even greater “change.”

The relatively high rate for the predictive value of the horizon scanning method, more than 40%, validated in this study was significant.

This paper aims to focus on the development of a vision for the Lake Constance region, Germany, as an e-destination, i.e. a destination where tourism mobility would be predominantly electric in the future.

This paper uses a scenario analysis based on factor analysis in addition to empirical data collected in 2016 and 2017 based on surveys and interviews with tourists and stakeholders.

The scenarios contain the optimistic, pessimistic and realistic models, including one scenario called e-destination, i.e. a projection of the future where tourism mobility consists predominantly of electro-mobility (e-mobility). This specific scenario is supported by the results of the empirical data.

As the study focusses on e-mobility only, it leaves out other forms of mobility e.g. pedestrian or cycling mobility that also contribute to CO₂ reduction. The sampling methods are not strictly randomised, but the tendencies they show are clear and supporting each other.

According to the tourists and stakeholders interviewed, it is quite likely that the region will become an e-destination in the future, but only with government support.

The attitude-behaviour-gap was discussed as a possible explanation of tourists’ behaviour in the study.

Studies on e-mobility in tourism are rare. (As far as the author knows) this paper presents the first analysis of the future of e-mobility in tourism using a German lake as a destination. Thus, it adds to the existing body of knowledge different possible projections of the future regarding e-mobility in a tourism destination.

The purpose of this paper is to provoke reflections on the potential contribution of food tourism experiences to achieving the sustainable development goals for eradicating hunger and malnutrition.

In line with the creative analytic practice in scientific inquiry, this study develops and discusses a futuristic scenario inspired by a factual company. The case is based on ideas derived from studies on educational and food tourism and entrepreneurship, more precisely ecopreneurship.

Food tourism can offer an opportunity for discussing food challenges in the context of ideas and projects to alleviate hunger and malnutrition. This study shows that imagining such possibilities and projects is challenging because of the complexity of the issue.

This study suggests that despite some limitations, educational food tourism experiences might go well beyond the issues of regional development, localism and authenticity. Practitioners, including tourism entrepreneurs and private and public food and tourism organisations, might be essential to exploring alternative food tourism futures in ways that truly contribute to urgent global challenges.

The value of this paper lies in the use of a scenario to imagine and to reflect on the future of food tourism in relation to the global challenges of hunger and malnutrition. The paper suggests that the ideas from tourism studies and ecopreneurship can offer interesting perspectives on future developments in the sector.

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the evolving interpretations of the Covid crisis and its impact on hospitality and tourism.

Scenario planning paper following Framework Foresight about the Covid pandemic and its impact on hospitality and tourism. Research input was gathered from research reports in different disciplines and discussions with an expert panel.

The paper argues that hypothesized recovery scenarios were founded on hope and inaccurate extrapolations, and that hospitality and tourism may head for permanently lower volumes.

The paper contributes to the debate on tourism resilience and hopeful visions of a sustainable restart.

Instead of just focusing on direct pandemic impact and that of governmental measures, a third variable of consumer confidence will be decisive, and more important than expected by many initially, in future scenarios for hospitality and tourism.

The proposed scenarios that were designed with executive level industry input have so far proven more realistic than prevalent views of a swift recovery.

This work proposes a methodology to project future freight demand for all commodity types that begin and end in each geographical region and the amount of freight that moves between all origin and destination pairs. Following the traditional four-step demand forecasting framework, the procedure corresponds to trip generation and trip distribution analysis for interregional freight demand. Using future economic growth factors from macroeconomic and input-output models, the amounts of freight production and attraction in each analysis zone are forecasted and taken as given. Subsequently, an iterative matrix balancing method is applied to determine the estimated freight shipment demand for all origin and destination zone pairs. The proposed algorithm is applied to generate predicted future freight demand within the United States from 2010-2050 in five-year increments based on the national freight demand data from 2007. Four different scenarios are proposed that consider variations in both global economic growth and environmental regulation. This study will assist transportation planners and decision makers in public and private sectors to assess how future freight delivery demand on the national scale considering various future global economic growth and environmental policy scenarios will affect various issues such as air quality and human health problems.