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Scenarios are viewed as a desirable input to planning because they address two key trends in the planning environment:
Peter Kennedy, Charles Perrottet and Charles Thomas
Managers need a framework for assessing various kinds of risk and uncertainty that will continue to confront corporate decision makers as the 9/11 event plays out over the…
Abstract
Managers need a framework for assessing various kinds of risk and uncertainty that will continue to confront corporate decision makers as the 9/11 event plays out over the following months and years. The authors suggest an innovative scenario process, one that provides business continuity planning and medium‐term operational planning with a more rigorous analytical grounding, but without overburdening the process with excessive and ultimately counter‐productive complexity. The authors have introduced alternative scenario‐based tools to respond to this specific need for continuity assurance and near‐term operations planning. Case one: business continuity planning (BCP) for the management of one leading global financial services firm committed to a process of identifying and remedying gaps in the recoverability of its key assets. Workshops developed strategies that would close unacceptable asset recovery gaps in two scenarios. Case two: medium term operational planning for a professional services firm in the weeks that followed 9/11 evaluated the plausible range of impacts on their business and operations as the USA and the world took action and terrorist groups responded further. Case three: three years ago the US Coast Guard developed scenarios for very long range strategic planning for their long view project. The Coast Guard developed ten basic strategies from these scenarios. The fourth strategy was “Acquire full maritime domain awareness”. The goal was to give the Coast Guard the ability to acquire, track, and identify in real time any vessel or aircraft entering America’s maritime domain. Maritime domain awareness (MDA) turned out to be highly relevant for USCG decision making both before and after 9/11. Of all the major US federal services involved in the 9/11 response operation, the Coast Guard was singled out for its agility and preparedness.
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The purpose of this paper is to discuss the scenario planning approach developed and used by the European Tourism Futures Institute (ETFI).
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the scenario planning approach developed and used by the European Tourism Futures Institute (ETFI).
Design/methodology/approach
This paper contains the following sections: mission and aims of the research group; epistemological and methodological positioning, conceptual framework and research lines for an applied scenario planning approach.
Findings
This paper highlights the research methodology of the scenario planning group of the European Tourism Research Institute. It provides insight in the research foundations of the scenario planning approach in a tourism context and ETFI's conceptual framework for scenario planning.
Originality/value
The paper provides an insight to how Europe's first tourism futures research centre developed and uses a conceptual framework for scenario planning thus demonstrating best practice success.
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This paper aims to propose the idea of linking the use of the balanced scorecard with scenario planning. Scenario planning emphasizes the development of a strategic plan that is…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to propose the idea of linking the use of the balanced scorecard with scenario planning. Scenario planning emphasizes the development of a strategic plan that is robust across different scenarios. This ensures that the strategy implemented using the balanced scorecard is linked to external conditions and takes into consideration the expected changes in the environment.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper examines the criticisms of the balanced scorecard and proposes the use of scenario planning as a way of overcoming some of these limitations.
Findings
It argues that the use of scenario planning is capable of overcoming the lack of external orientation in the balanced scorecard. Scenario planning also helps make the balanced scorecard more reflective of changes that may appear in the future. This ensures that the scorecard developed is not merely a linear extension from the present.
Research limitations/implications
Studies need to be undertaken to examine whether integrating scenario planning with the balanced scorecard leads to more effective strategy implementation.
Practical implications
Adopters of the balanced scorecard need to recognize that developing a balanced scorecard system needs to be preceded by a strategy formulation process that incorporates an understanding of how future events may evolve. This can be achieved using scenario planning.
Originality/value
This study is probably the first attempt to link the implementation of the balanced scorecard and scenario planning.
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Pasi Rikkonen, Jari Kaivo‐oja and Jyrki Aakkula
This article seeks to present approaches on the utilisation of expert information in strategic planning practices.
Abstract
Purpose
This article seeks to present approaches on the utilisation of expert information in strategic planning practices.
Design/methodology/approach
The article emphasises alternative scenario development for the bases of decision making. This is done through an evaluation of Delphi studies and their feasibility for scenario construction. As an application of the information processes, both narrow and broad expert information processes are presented as alternative sources for solutions in public sector strategic planning.
Findings
Basically, there are two alternative ways to utilise Delphi studies in strategic planning and decision making: a broad expert information process (BEIP) model; and a narrow expert information process (NEIP) model.
Practical implications
As a broad process, an example is presented of the alternative future outcomes and the argumentation around it in the share of genetically modified plant varieties in commercial farming in Finland.
Originality/value
This theoretical review contributes to the discussions of the linkages between the use of expert information, the scenario planning and the strategic planning processes.
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Boo Edgar, Adli Abouzeedan, Thomas Hedner, Karl Maack and Mats Lundqvist
Planning under conditions of uncertainty is more demanding than doing the same under less uncertain circumstances. Planning which is coupled to high level of uncertainty requires…
Abstract
Purpose
Planning under conditions of uncertainty is more demanding than doing the same under less uncertain circumstances. Planning which is coupled to high level of uncertainty requires good strategic thinking by the planners. There are a number of methods used for planning under such circumstances. Among these methods is scenario planning. Scenario planning has been used for classical management to help organizations and firms in their decision‐making activities. One area where scenario planning has not been used intensively, according to the authors’ understanding, is in a regional development context and especially in relation to the innovation aspects and policy issues.
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper, the authors discuss and exemplify the possible utilization of scenario planning to promote innovation in a regional development context. They look at the hidden potential of the method and discuss the challenges of its utilization. To run their analysis, they use a number of cases from the health sector. These cases are unique because they also involved input from a number of actors of the regional innovation system.
Findings
The authors found that scenario planning is a valuable tool to deal with regional development schemes under high level of uncertainty and where diverse actors from the regional innovation system are involved.
Originality/value
The authors argue in this work that scenario planning has the potential to be used, at a more intense scale, in promoting innovation activities in organizations within the context of a regional development drive. Surely, scenario planning need be considered when discussing innovation in relation to introduction of new therapies, new educational schemes, and other regional development initiatives.
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Thomas J. Chermack, Laura M. Coons, Gregory O’barr and Shiva Khatami
The purpose of this research is to examine the effects of scenario planning on participant ratings of resilience.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this research is to examine the effects of scenario planning on participant ratings of resilience.
Design/methodology/approach
The research design is a quasi experimental pretest/posttest with treatment and control groups. Random selection or assignment was not achieved.
Findings
Results show a significant difference in reports of resilience for the scenario planning treatment group and no significant difference for the control group.
Research limitations/implications
Limitations include the use of self-report perception measures, possible social desirability of responses and a lack of random selection and assignment.
Practical implications
Practical implications imply that scenario planning can be viewed as a legitimate tool for increasing resilience in organizations.
Social implications
Organizations with an ability to adjust quickly and recover from difficult conditions means reduced layoffs and healthy economic growth.
Originality/value
While there is increasing research on scenario planning, to date, none has examined the effects of scenarios on resilience.
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The purpose of this paper is to discuss the value of scenario planning to small and medium size enterprises (SMEs), and further examine the challenges constraining the uptake of…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the value of scenario planning to small and medium size enterprises (SMEs), and further examine the challenges constraining the uptake of scenario planning by SMEs.
Design/methodology/approach
A conceptual review of the literature on scenario planning in SMEs intended to unpack and capture the possible underlying reasons accounting for the limited uptake of scenario planning by managers/owners of SMEs has informed the formulation of this paper.
Findings
The study uncovered that SMEs’ managerial mental models, SMEs’ managerial time orientation, severe resource constraints, and industry complexity are some of the salient factors inhibiting the use of scenario planning among managers/owners of SMEs. The author develops a framework of propositions that account for the complexity and challenges of scenario planning by SMEs for future empirical examination and validation.
Originality/value
The conventional wisdom is that scenario planning is carried out by large and established firms, and that SMEs are unable to adopt and practice the technique. This paper uncovers that SME have substantial needs for scenario planning, but are only able to engage in simple foresight activities such as brainstorming, desk research, networking and expert interviews to monitor their external environment. They are unable to effectively use scenario planning in its purest form as in large firms. By bringing together the reasons accounting for the difficulty of SMEs to practice scenario planning in its purest form as large firms do, the study therefore extends the limited discourse on scenario planning among SMEs. Implications are discussed and areas for future empirical studies provided.
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Thomas J. Chermack and Kim Nimon
– The paper ' s aim is to report a research study on the mediator and outcome variable sets in scenario planning.
Abstract
Purpose
The paper ' s aim is to report a research study on the mediator and outcome variable sets in scenario planning.
Design/methodology/approach
This is a cannonical correlation analysis (CCA)
Findings
Twso sets of variables; one as a predictor set that explained a significant amount of variability in the second, or outcome set of variables were found.
Research limitations/implications
The study did not involve random selection or assignment and used perception-based measures.
Practical implications
The findings support scenario planning as a tool to reinforce certain decision styles and learning organization culture.
Originality/value
A critical contribution to scenario planning research, this study brings some order to the variety of variables espoused to be involved in scenario work. Clear outcomes are a learning culture and intuitive/dependent decision styles. The study makes a real contribution to quantitative scenario studies.
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The head of planning for a Fortune 500 consumer products company summarizes the lessons managers must master for successful scenario planning in diversified companies.