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Occupant behavior can lead to considerable uncertainties in thermal comfort and air quality within buildings. To tackle this challenge, the use of probabilistic controls to simulate occupant behavior has emerged as a potential solution. This study seeks to analyze the performance of free-running households by examining adaptive thermal comfort and CO2 concentration, both crucial variables in indoor air quality. The investigation of indoor environment dynamics caused by the occupants' behavior, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, became increasingly important. Specifically, it investigates 13 distinct window and shading control strategies in courtyard houses to identify the factors that prompt occupants to interact with shading and windows and determine which control approach effectively minimizes the performance gap.

This paper compares commonly used deterministic and probabilistic control functions and their effects on occupant comfort and indoor air quality in four zones surrounding a courtyard. The zones are differentiated by windows facing the courtyard. The study utilizes the energy management system (EMS) functionality of EnergyPlus within an algorithmic interface called Ladybug Tools. By modifying geometrical dimensions, orientation, window-to-wall ratio (WWR) and window operable fraction, a total of 465 cases are analyzed to identify effective control scenarios. According to the literature, these factors were selected because of their potential significant impact on occupants’ thermal comfort and indoor air quality, in addition to the natural ventilation flow rate. Additionally, the Random Forest algorithm is employed to estimate the individual impact of each control scenario on indoor thermal comfort and air quality metrics, including operative temperature and CO2 concentration.

The findings of the study confirmed that both deterministic and probabilistic window control algorithms were effective in reducing thermal discomfort hours, with reductions of 56.7 and 41.1%, respectively. Deterministic shading controls resulted in a reduction of 18.5%. Implementing the window control strategies led to a significant decrease of 87.8% in indoor CO2 concentration. The sensitivity analysis revealed that outdoor temperature exhibited the strongest positive correlation with indoor operative temperature while showing a negative correlation with indoor CO2 concentration. Furthermore, zone orientation and length were identified as the most influential design variables in achieving the desired performance outcomes.

It’s important to acknowledge the limitations of this study. Firstly, the potential impact of air circulation through the central zone was not considered. Secondly, the investigated control scenarios may have different impacts on air-conditioned buildings, especially when considering energy consumption. Thirdly, the study heavily relied on simulation tools and algorithms, which may limit its real-world applicability. The accuracy of the simulations depends on the quality of the input data and the assumptions made in the models. Fourthly, the case study is hypothetical in nature to be able to compare different control scenarios and their implications. Lastly, the comparative analysis was limited to a specific climate, which may restrict the generalizability of the findings in different climates.

Occupant behavior represents a significant source of uncertainty, particularly during the early stages of design. This study aims to offer a comparative analysis of various deterministic and probabilistic control scenarios that are based on occupant behavior. The study evaluates the effectiveness and validity of these proposed control scenarios, providing valuable insights for design decision-making.

The purpose of this study is to propose an innovative and efficient process in urban policy-making that combines a divergent and creative method with a convergent and strategic one. At the same time, the purpose is also to propose a useful innovation to enforce the usability of both methods. On the one hand, mission-oriented policies run the risk of being overly focused on the present and of not being able to develop preparedness in organization. On the other hand, scenario development has the reverse problem it often does not point out how to use scenario narratives to inform and devise short-term strategic actions.

The paper proposes an innovative methodological approach, the mission-oriented scenarios, which hybridizes Mazzucato's mission-oriented public policy framework with Jim Dator's Manoa school four futures method. The proposed methodological innovation emerges from a urban foresight academic-led project carried out in the context of the Metropolitan City of Turin, Italy, where a first application of the mission-oriented scenarios was tested on six different focal issues (from reindustrialization to cultural policies) and the scenario narratives were used as sources for the grounding of 12 missions and 48 strategic actions towards 2030.

Mission-oriented scenarios can contribute to the generation of more sustainable and inclusive urban public policies. This methodological proposal is based on an original mix of knowledge exchange procedures borrowed from methodological approaches with different backgrounds: the mission-oriented and the archetypal scenarios. Their conjunction could support the formulation of ambitious yet pragmatic policies, giving a plurality of actors the opportunity to act and establish fruitful and lasting partnerships.

The paper reconstructs one of the first urban foresight projects carried out in a major Italian city by two prestigious universities and exposes a methodological innovation resulting from reflection on the strengths and weaknesses of the project, which opens the door to the development of a new scenario technique.

The purpose of this study is to identify the drivers and future scenarios of Iran’s Social Security Organization.

The research is applied in terms of orientation and mixed in terms of methodology. In this research, the methods of theme analysis, root definitions, fuzzy Delphi and Cocoso were used. The theoretical population is the managers and senior experts of the social security organization, and the sampling method was done in a judgmental way. The tools of data collection were interviews and questionnaires. The interview tool was used to extract the main and subdrivers of the research and develop the scenarios.

Through theme analysis, 35 subdrivers were extracted in the form of economic, sociocultural, financial and investment, policy, marketing, environmental and legal themes. Due to the large number of subdrivers, these factors were screened with fuzzy Delphi. Eleven drivers had defuzzied coefficient higher than 0.7 and were selected for final prioritization. The final drivers were prioritized with the CoCoSo technique, and the two drivers of social security holdings governance and state of government revenues had the highest priority. Based on these two drivers, four scenarios of prosperity, resilient social security, unstable development and collapse have been developed.

Some of the suggestions of the research are: using the capacity of FinTechs and financial startups to invest the government revenues of the organization, using digital technologies such as business intelligence for more efficient decisions and developing corporate governance in the organization.

Although the significance of technological progress in economic development is well-established in theory and policy, it has remained challenging to agree upon shared priorities for strategies and policies. This paper aims to develop a model of how policymakers can develop effective and easy to communicate strategies for science, technology and economic development.

By integrating insights from economic complexity, competitiveness and foresight literature, a replicable research framework for analysing the opportunities and challenges of technological revolutions for small catching-up countries is developed. The authors highlight key lessons from piloting this framework for informing the strategy and policies for bioeconomy in Estonia towards 2030–2050.

The integration of economic complexity research with traditional foresight methods establishes a solid analytical basis for a data-driven analysis of the opportunities for industrial upgrading. The increase in the importance of regional alliances in the global economy calls for further advancement of the analytical toolbox. Integration of complexity, global value chains and export potential assessment approaches offers valuable direction for further research, as it enables discussion of the opportunities of moving towards more knowledge-intensive economic activities along with the opportunities for winning international market share.

The research merges insights from the economic complexity, competitiveness and foresight literature in a novel way and illustrates the applicability and priority-setting in a real-life setting.

Prefabricated buildings (PBs) have proven to effectively mitigate carbon emissions in the construction industry. Existing studies have analyzed the environmental performance of PBs considering the shift in construction methods, ignoring the emissions abatement effects of the low-carbon practices adopted by participants in the prefabricated building supply chain (PBSC). Thus, it is challenging to exploit the environmental advantages of PBs. To further reveal the carbon reduction potential of PBs and assist participants in making low-carbon practice strategy decisions, this paper constructs a system dynamics (SD) model to explore the performance of PBSC in low-carbon practices.

This study adopts the SD approach to integrate the complex dynamic relationship between variables and explicitly considers the environmental and economic impacts of PBSC to explore the carbon emission reduction effects of low-carbon practices by enterprises under environmental policies from the supply chain perspective.

Results show that with the advance of prefabrication level, the carbon emissions from production and transportation processes increase, and the total carbon emissions of PBSC show an upward trend. Low-carbon practices of rational transportation route planning and carbon-reduction energy investment can effectively reduce carbon emissions with negative economic impacts on transportation enterprises. The application of sustainable materials in low-carbon practices is both economically and environmentally friendly. In addition, carbon tax does not always promote the implementation of low-carbon practices, and the improvement of enterprises' environmental awareness can further strengthen the effect of low-carbon practices.

This study dynamically assesses the carbon reduction effects of low-carbon practices in PBSC, informing the low-carbon decision-making of participants in building construction projects and guiding the government to formulate environmental policies.

This paper describes the development of a digital role play game (RPG) designed to help construction apprentices to better communicate with their supervisors about issues with the potential to impact on their physical and psychological health and safety.

A participatory approach was adopted to utilise the knowledge and insights of the target users to inform the digital RPG development. Apprentices and supervisors were interviewed to identify characteristics of effective supervisor-apprentice communication, which became the RPG’s learning objectives. The scenarios constructed in the RPG were drawn from lived experiences shared by the apprentices in the interviews. During the development process, consultations were conducted with an advisory committee comprising of apprentices and supervisors to improve the realism of the RPG scenarios.

Three scenarios were developed for the RPG. In each scenario, players are asked to make decisions at various interaction points about how the characters should respond to the unfolding and challenging situations. Scripts were developed for the game, which were acted out and motion captured to animate digital MetaHuman characters embedded in a virtual construction site. Two example situations are introduced in this paper to illustrate the development process.

To our knowledge, the RPG introduced is one of the first applications of digital game-based training in the construction industry. The adoption of a participatory design approach ensures that the game content relates to real-world experiences. The digital RPG is highly interactive and engaging in nature and presents a novel approach to developing “soft” skills in construction.

Motivated by the wide application of procurement strategies in retailing, this paper aims to examine the effect of procurement strategies on decisions and profits and strategic inventory (SI) is considered.

The game-theoretic models are developed under a two-period fresh product supply chain (FSC), and consist of the mode of purchasing products only in the first period without SI (Scenario S), the mode of purchasing products in every period without SI (Scenario T) and the mode of purchasing products in every period with SI (Scenario TS).

Conducting the calculating and comparing, some major findings can be concluded. In general, two-period purchasing strategies (Scenarios T and TS) promote a higher freshness-keeping effort than the single buying strategy (Scenario S). Regarding the pricing strategy, SI and Scenario S can both contribute to obtaining a lower wholesale price, the retailer's pricing is relatively complicated and hinges on the consumer's sensitivity to freshness-keeping effort and the holding cost. Besides, comparing the sales quantity and the profit, the authors find that Scenario TS stimulates more demands and brings more profits for the manufacturer. However, Scenario TS is not the optimal selection for the reason that SI sometimes hurts the retailer and even the whole supply chain. Whereas, when the holding cost is in a certain range, Scenario TS will lead to a win-win situation.

The main findings of this study can give the enterprises some advice on the procurement strategies of fresh products and the decisions of pricing and the freshness-keeping effort.

The purpose of this research is to achieve multi-task autonomous driving by adjusting the network architecture of the model. Meanwhile, after achieving multi-task autonomous driving, the authors found that the trained neural network model performs poorly in untrained scenarios. Therefore, the authors proposed to improve the transfer efficiency of the model for new scenarios through transfer learning.

First, the authors achieved multi-task autonomous driving by training a model combining convolutional neural network and different structured long short-term memory (LSTM) layers. Second, the authors achieved fast transfer of neural network models in new scenarios by cross-model transfer learning. Finally, the authors combined data collection and data labeling to improve the efficiency of deep learning. Furthermore, the authors verified that the model has good robustness through light and shadow test.

This research achieved road tracking, real-time acceleration–deceleration, obstacle avoidance and left/right sign recognition. The model proposed by the authors (UniBiCLSTM) outperforms the existing models tested with model cars in terms of autonomous driving performance. Furthermore, the CMTL-UniBiCL-RL model trained by the authors through cross-model transfer learning improves the efficiency of model adaptation to new scenarios. Meanwhile, this research proposed an automatic data annotation method, which can save 1/4 of the time for deep learning.

This research provided novel solutions in the achievement of multi-task autonomous driving and neural network model scenario for transfer learning. The experiment was achieved on a single camera with an embedded chip and a scale model car, which is expected to simplify the hardware for autonomous driving.

Green innovation in supply chains is crucial for socioeconomic development and stability. Factors that influence collaborative green innovation in the supply chain are complex and diverse. Exploring the main influencing factors and their mechanisms is essential for promoting collaborative green innovation in supply chains. Therefore, this study analyzes how upstream and downstream enterprises in the supply chain collaborate to develop green technological innovations, thereby providing a theoretical basis for improving the overall efficiency of the supply chain and advancing green innovation technology.

Based on evolutionary game theory, this study divides operational scenarios into pure market and government-regulated operations, thereby constructing collaborative green innovation relationships in different scenarios. Through evolutionary analysis of various entities in different operational scenarios, combined with numerical simulation analysis, we compared the evolutionary stability of collaborative green innovation behavior in supply chains with and without government regulation.

Under pure market mechanisms, the higher the green innovation capability, the stronger the willingness of various entities to collaborate in green innovation. However, under government regulation, a decrease in green innovation capability increases the willingness to collaborate with various entities. Environmental tax rates and green subsidy levels promote collaborative innovation in the short term but inhibit collaborative innovation in the long term, indicating that policy orientation has a short-term impact. Additionally, the greater the penalty for collaborative innovation breaches, the stronger the intention to engage in collaborative green innovation in the supply chain.

We introduce the factors influencing green innovation capability and social benefits in the study of the innovation behavior of upstream and downstream enterprises, expanding the research field of collaborative innovation in the supply chain. By comparing the collaborative innovation behavior of various entities in the supply chain under a pure market scenario and government regulations, this study provides a new perspective for analyzing the impact of corresponding government policies on the green innovation capability of upstream and downstream enterprises, enriching theoretical research on green innovation in the supply chain to some extent.

Present study aimed to integrate Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Building Information Modeling (BIM) in conjunction with multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) to enhance infrastructure investment planning.

This analysis combines GIS databases with BIM simulations for a novel highway project. Around 150 potential alternatives were simulated, narrowed to 25 more effective routes and 3 options underwent in-depth analysis using PROMETHEE method for decision-making, based on environmental, cost and safety criteria, allowing for comprehensive cross-perspective comparisons.

A comprehensive framework proposed was validated through a case study. Demonstrating its adaptability with customizable parameters. It aids decision-making, cost estimation, environmental impact analysis and outcome prediction. Considering these critical factors, this study holds the potential to advance new techniques for assessment and planning railways, power lines, gas and water.

The study acknowledges limitations in GIS data quality, particularly in underdeveloped areas or regions with limited technology access. It also overlooks other pertinent variables, like social, economic, political and cultural issues. Thus, conclusions from these simulations may not entirely represent reality or diverse potential scenarios.

The proposed method automates decision-making, reducing subjectivity, aids in selecting effective alternatives and considers environmental criteria to mitigate negative impacts. Additionally, it minimizes costs and risks while demonstrating adaptability for assessing diverse infrastructures.

By integrating GIS and BIM data to support a MCDM workflow, this study proposes to fill the existing research gap in decision-making prioritization and mitigate subjective biases.