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Abstract

Details

The Impacts of Monetary Policy in the 21st Century: Perspectives from Emerging Economies
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-319-8

Book part
Publication date: 24 October 2019

Venkataramanaiah Malepati, Madhavi Latha Challa and Siva Nageswara Rao Kolusu

This study is intended to investigate the volatility patterns in Bombay Stock Exchange Limited Sensitivity Index (BSE Sensex) based on time series data collected for 10 years…

Abstract

This study is intended to investigate the volatility patterns in Bombay Stock Exchange Limited Sensitivity Index (BSE Sensex) based on time series data collected for 10 years period of time. To reach out the predefined objectives of the study, the authors have employed generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic models. The study revealed that the presence of heteroscedasticiy is found in BSE Sensex. Further, the model produced highly accurate results when the researchers compared the estimated results from actual. Furthermore, the volatility of BSE Sensex has shown the features of clustering and significant time varying. Moreover, the model has indicated that there is a positive correlation between daily stock returns and the BSE Sensex volatility.

Article
Publication date: 26 October 2021

Sohil Idnani, Masudul Hasan Adil, Hoshiar Mal and Ashutosh Kolte

This paper aims to understand the effect of a change in Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) of India and the USA on investors' sentiment in the Indian context, consisting of Sensex…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to understand the effect of a change in Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) of India and the USA on investors' sentiment in the Indian context, consisting of Sensex returns and volatility index (Vix).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ bounds testing approach to cointegration to capture the short-and long-run effects of EPU on investors' sentiment, along with impulse response functions and variance decompositions to check the effect of a shock on Sensex and Vix.

Findings

The study concludes the existence of a cointegrating relationship for both models, that is, Vix and Sensex. In the long-run, changes in EPU_India affect Vix and Sensex positively and negatively, respectively. On the other hand, EPU_USA affects Vix and Sensex positively. Furthermore, Gregory and Hansen (1996) cointegration with endogenous structural break reveals a long-run cointegrating relationship for both models.

Research limitations/implications

The effect of EPUs on investors' sentiment reveals that when there is an uncertain event that adversely affects the stock prices, investors should not make haste to take a decision as the impact on stock prices perturbation might be temporary. Therefore, one should persevere for the dip in prices to hit the desired target.

Originality/value

Various studies look at the effect of cross-country EPU on the home country, However, there is no such study in the Indian context. The present study examines the impact of India's EPU on investors' sentiments after controlling the USA's EPU, one of India's largest trading partners and a key determinant of global economic policy.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 November 2020

Nikhil Yadav, Priyanka Tandon, Ravindra Tripathi and Rajesh Kumar Shastri

The purpose of the study is to investigate the long-run and short-run dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and the movement of Sensex for the period of 2000–2018.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to investigate the long-run and short-run dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and the movement of Sensex for the period of 2000–2018.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the augmented Dickey–Fuller test for the presence of unit root, Johansen cointegration test for estimating the cointegration among the variables. Further, in the case of no cointegration found, the study employed the vector autoregression (VAR) model to estimate the long-run relationship and the Granger causality/Wald test for short-run relationship. The study also conducted tests for the prerequisites of the model: serial correlation, heteroskedasticity and normality of data.

Findings

The study found that both the variables, crude oil prices and Sensex are integrated of order 1, that is, I (1), and there is no cointegration between them. Further, the results proliferated from the VAR model unfold the marked effect of previous month crude oil prices (lag 1) on the movement of Indian stock market represented by Sensex considered as the benchmark index. Furthermore, VAR–Granger causality/block exogeneity Wald tests results indicated that there is a causal relationship between the crude oil prices and Sensex under the VAR environment. The model does not have any serial correlation and heteroskedasticity indicating toward the unbiased and robust estimates.

Research limitations/implications

The study is conducted till the year 2018, and data for the present period (post-2018) is excluded due to ongoing trade issues between the USA and oil-exporting countries such as Iran. The current COVID-19 outbreak has also put serious issues. Due to limited time and availability of standardized data, researchers have considered Sensex as equity index only, but for more generalized research outcome few other equity indexes could have been taken for study.

Originality/value

The study is completely original in nature and is an extensive study of the relationship between the crude oil price and Indian stock market with reference to causality between the variables.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. 28 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Indian Economy
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80455-937-6

Article
Publication date: 10 June 2014

Santu Das, Jamini Kanta Pattanayak and Pramod Pathak

The main purpose of this research study is to investigate the impact of quarterly earnings announcements on stock price movement of the firms constituting the SENSEX under two…

Abstract

Purpose

The main purpose of this research study is to investigate the impact of quarterly earnings announcements on stock price movement of the firms constituting the SENSEX under two different market conditions – booming followed by recessionary. Analysis of price effect of quarterly earnings announcements during the five-year period prior to trading suspension, which is also characterized by a booming market condition have been made. Similar analysis during the five-year period following the trading suspension and marked by recessionary market condition has also been carried out side by side.

Design/methodology/approach

Event study methodology using daily returns and market model has been used for the purpose of analyzing the quarterly earnings announcement effects on the security prices of the firms. A sign test has also been used along with the event study.

Findings

The study reveals that quarterly earnings announcement does not have statistically significant effect on stock returns during the booming as well as the recessionary market conditions. The impact of quarterly earnings announcements on stock price movement of firms constituting the SENSEX has been similar for both periods undertaken in the study.

Research limitations/implications

The study has been undertaken using the firms listed in BSE SENSEX. The effect of the quarterly earnings announcement with reference to firms listed in other indices, if covered, may provide different sets of results.

Originality/value

The paper identifies the informational value of quarterly earnings announcement of BSE-SENSEX.

Details

Journal of Indian Business Research, vol. 6 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4195

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 August 2018

Narinder Pal Singh and Sugandha Sharma

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship among Gold, Crude oil, Indian Rupee-US Dollar and Stock market-Sensex (gold, oil, dollar and stock market…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship among Gold, Crude oil, Indian Rupee-US Dollar and Stock market-Sensex (gold, oil, dollar and stock market (GODS)) in the pre-crisis, the crisis and the post-crisis periods in the Indian context.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use Johansen’s cointegration technique, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Vector Auto Regression, VEC Granger Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Test, and Granger Causality and Toda Yamamoto modified Granger causality to study long-run relationship and causality.

Findings

Johansen’s cointegration test results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables in the pre-crisis and the crisis periods but not in post-crisis period. VECM results report that none of four models of the variables show long-run causality in the pre-crisis period. During the crisis period, both crude oil and Sensex models show long-run causality. However, in some cases, results indicate short-run causality. The authors find one-way causality from USD and Sensex to crude oil, and from gold and Sensex to USD. Thus, the authors conclude that the relationship among GODS is dynamic across global financial crisis.

Practical implications

The research findings of this study are vital to the large group of stakeholders and participants of gold, crude oil, US dollar and stock market in emerging economies like India. The results are useful to importers, exporters, government, policy makers, corporate houses, retail investors, portfolio managers, commodity traders, treasury and fund managers, other commercial traders, etc.

Originality/value

This study is one of its kinds as it investigates the relationship among GODS in India in different sub-periods like before, during and after the global financial crisis of 2008. None of the studies compare phase-wise relationship among GODS in the Indian context. The study contributes to the economic theory and the body of knowledge. It highlights the need to revisit the economic theory to explain the interplay mechanism among GODS.

Details

Journal of Advances in Management Research, vol. 15 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0972-7981

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 September 2018

Muneer Shaik and Maheswaran S.

The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to propose a new robust volatility ratio (RVR) that compares the intraday high–low volatility with that of the intraday open–close…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to propose a new robust volatility ratio (RVR) that compares the intraday high–low volatility with that of the intraday open–close volatility estimator; and second, to empirically test the proposed RVR on the cross-sectional (CS) average of the constituent stocks of India’s BSE Sensex and US’s Dow Jones Industrial Average index to find the evidence of “excess volatility.”

Design/methodology/approach

The authors model the proposed RVR by assuming the logarithm of the price process to follow the Brownian motion. The authors have theoretically shown that the RVR is unbiased in the case of zero drift parameter. Moreover, the RVR is found to be an even function of the non-zero drift parameter.

Findings

The empirical results show that the analysis based on the RVR supports the existence of “excess volatility” in the CS average of the constituent stocks of India’s BSE Sensex and US’s Dow Jones index. In particular, the authors have observed that the CS average of individual constituent stocks of BSE Sensex is found to be more excessively volatile than the US’s Dow Jones index during the period of the study from January 2008 to September 2016, based on multiple k-day time window analysis.

Practical implications

The study has implications for the policy makers and practitioners who would like to understand the volatility behavior in the asset returns based on the RVR of this study. In general, the proposed model can be used as a specification tool to find whether the stock prices follow the random walk behavior or excessively volatile.

Originality/value

The authors contribute to the existing volatility literature in finance by proposing a new RVR based on extreme values of asset prices and absolute returns. The authors implement the bootstrap technique on RVR to find the estimates of mean and standard error for multiple k-day time windows. The RVR can capture the excess volatility by comparing two independent volatility estimators. This is possibly the first study to find the CS average of all the constituent stocks of BSE Sensex based on the RVR.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 45 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2011

Karam Pal and Ruhee Mittal

The purpose of this paper is to examine the long‐run relationship between the Indian capital markets and key macroeconomic variables such as interest rates, inflation rate…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the long‐run relationship between the Indian capital markets and key macroeconomic variables such as interest rates, inflation rate, exchange rates and gross domestic savings (GDS) of Indian economy.

Design/methodology/approach

Quarterly time series data spanning the period from January 1995 to December 2008 has been used. The unit root test, the co‐integration test and error correction mechanism (ECM) have been applied to derive the long run and short‐term statistical dynamics.

Findings

The findings of the study establish that there is co‐integration between macroeconomic variables and Indian stock indices which is indicative of a long‐run relationship. The ECM shows that the rate of inflation has a significant impact on both the BSE Sensex and the S&P CNX Nifty. Interest rates on the other hand, have a significant impact on S&P CNX Nifty only. However, in case of foreign exchange rate, significant impact is seen only on BSE Sensex. The changing GDS is observed as insignificantly associated with both the BSE Sensex and the S&P CNX Nifty. The paper, on the whole, conclusively establishes that the capital markets indices are dependent on macroeconomic variables even though the same may not be statistically significant in all the cases.

Originality/value

This study emphasises on the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock market performance of a developing economy, whose performance is measured by these variables.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 12 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

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