Search results
1 – 10 of 25Berna Aydoğan, Gülin Vardar and Caner Taçoğlu
The existence of long memory and persistent volatility characteristics of cryptocurrencies justifies the investigation of return and volatility/shock spillovers between…
Abstract
Purpose
The existence of long memory and persistent volatility characteristics of cryptocurrencies justifies the investigation of return and volatility/shock spillovers between traditional financial market asset classes and cryptocurrencies. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship between the cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin and Ethereum, and stock market indices of G7 and E7 countries to analyze the return and volatility spillover patterns among these markets by means of multivariate (MGARCH) approach.
Design/methodology/approach
Applying the newly developed VAR-GARCH-in mean framework with the BEKK representation, the empirical results reveal that there exists an evidence of mean and volatility spillover effects among Bitcoin and Ethereum as the proxies for the cryptocurrencies, and stock markets reviewed.
Findings
Interestingly, the direction of the return and volatility spillover effects is unidirectional in most E7 countries, but bidirectional relationship was found in most G7 countries. This can be explained as the presence of a strong return and volatility interaction among G7 stock markets and crypto market.
Originality/value
Overall, the results of this study are of particular interest for portfolio management since it provides insights for financial market participants to make better portfolio allocation decisions. It is also increasingly important to understand the volatility transmission mechanism across these markets to provide policymakers and regulatory bodies with guidance to eliminate the negative impact of cryptocurrency's volatility on the stability of financial markets.
Details
Keywords
Raktim Ghosh, Bhaskar Bagchi and Susmita Chatterjee
The paper tries to analyse empirically the impact of India's economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index on different macro-economic variables of India, like import, export, interest…
Abstract
Purpose
The paper tries to analyse empirically the impact of India's economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index on different macro-economic variables of India, like import, export, interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate and stock market during pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 era.
Design/methodology/approach
Although there exist several works where relationship and volatility among the stock markets and macro-economic indicators during the COVID-19 pandemic have been estimated, but till now none of the studies examined the effect of EPU index on different macro-economic variables in the Indian context along with the stock market due to the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. This is considered a noteworthy gap and hence opens up a new dimension for examination. To get a clear picture, monthly data from January, 2012 to September, 2021 have been considered where January, 2012–February, 2020 is taken as the pre-COVID-19 period and March, 2020–September, 2021 as COVID-19 period. All the data are converted into log natural. The authors applied DCC-GARCH model to investigate the impact of EPU index on volatility of selected variables over the study period across a multivariate framework and Markov regime-switching model to examine the switching over of the variables.
Findings
The results of dynamic conditional correlation - multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model indicates the presence of volatility in the dependent variables arising out of economic policy uncertainty considering the segmentation of the study period into pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19. The results of Markov regime-switching model show the variables make a significant move from low-volatility regime to high-volatility regime due to the presence of COVID-19.
Research limitations/implications
It can be implied that impact of EPU in terms of volatility on the Indian Stock Market will lead to unfavourable investment conditions for the prospective investors. Even, the different macro-economic variables are to suffer from the volatility arising out of EPU across a long time horizon as confirmed from the DCC-MGARCH model.
Originality/value
The study is original in nature. It adds superior values from the new and significant findings from the study empirically. Application of DCC-MGARCH model and Markov regime switching model makes the study an innovative one in terms of methodology and findings.
Details
Keywords
Tazeen Arsalan, Bilal Ahmed Chishty, Shagufta Ghouri and Nayeem Ul Hassan Ansari
This research paper aims to analyze the stock exchanges of developed, emerging and developing countries to investigate the volatility in stock markets and to evaluate the rate of…
Abstract
Purpose
This research paper aims to analyze the stock exchanges of developed, emerging and developing countries to investigate the volatility in stock markets and to evaluate the rate of mean reversion.
Design/methodology/approach
The stock exchanges included in the research are NASDAQ, Tokyo stock exchange, Shanghai stock exchange, Bombay stock exchange, Karachi stock exchange and Jakarta stock exchange. Secondary daily data from Bloomberg are used to conduct the research for the period from January 2011 to December 2018. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1,1) model was applied to examine volatility and the half-life formula was used to calculate mean reversion in days.
Findings
The research concluded that all the stock exchanges included in the research satisfy the assumptions of mean reversion. Developing countries have the lowest volatility while emerging countries have the highest volatility which means that the rate of mean reversion is fastest in developing countries and slowest in emerging countries.
Research limitations/implications
Future studies can determine the reasons for fastest rate of mean reversion in developing countries and slowest rate of mean reversion in emerging countries.
Practical implications
Developing countries show the lowest mean reversion in days while the emerging countries show the highest mean reversion in days indicating that developing countries take less time to revert to their mean position.
Originality/value
The majority of previous studies on univariate volatility models are mostly on applications of the models. Only a few researchers have taken the robustness of the models into account when applying them in emerging countries and not in developed, developing and emerging countries in one place. This makes the current study unique and more rigorous.
Details
Keywords
Masudul Hasan Adil and Salman Haider
The present study empirically examines the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and policy uncertainty on stock prices in India during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Abstract
Purpose
The present study empirically examines the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and policy uncertainty on stock prices in India during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Design/methodology/approach
To this end, the authors use the daily data by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, which tests the short- and long-run relationship between stock price and its covariates.
Findings
The study finds that increased uncertainty has adverse short- and long-run effects on stock prices, while the vaccine index has favorable effects on stock market recovery.
Practical implications
From investors' perspectives, volatility in the Indian stock market has negative repercussions. Therefore, to protect investors' sentiments, policymakers should be concerned about the uncertainty induced by the COVID-19 pandemic and similar other uncertainty prevailing in the financial markets.
Originality/value
This study used the news-based COVID-19 index and vaccine index to measure recent pandemic-induced uncertainty. The result carries some policy implications for an emerging economy like India.
Peer review
The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-03-2023-0244
Details
Keywords
Poonam Mulchandani, Rajan Pandey, Byomakesh Debata and Jayashree Renganathan
The regulatory design of Indian stock market provides us with the opportunity to disaggregate initial returns into two categories, i.e. voluntary premarket underpricing and post…
Abstract
Purpose
The regulatory design of Indian stock market provides us with the opportunity to disaggregate initial returns into two categories, i.e. voluntary premarket underpricing and post market mispricing. This study explores the impact of investor attention on the disaggregated short-run returns and long-run performance of initial public offerings (IPOs).
Design/methodology/approach
The study employs regression techniques on the sample of IPOs listed from 2005 to 2019. It measures investor attention with the help of the Google Search Volume Index (GSVI) extracted from Google Trends. Along with GSVI, the subscription rate is used as a proxy to measure investor attention.
Findings
The empirical results suggest a positive and significant relationship between initial returns and investor attention, thus validating the attention theory for Indian IPOs. Furthermore, when the returns are analysed for a more extended period using buy-and-hold abnormal returns (BHARs), it was found that price reversal holds in the long run.
Research limitations/implications
This study highlights the importance of information diffusion in the market. It emphasizes the behavioural tendency of the investors in the pre-market, which reduces the market efficiency. Hence, along with fundamentals, investor attention also plays an essential role in deciding the returns for an IPO.
Originality/value
According to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is one of the first studies that has attempted to explore the influence of investor attention and its interplay with underpricing and long-run performance for IPOs of Indian markets.
Details
Keywords
Vineeta Kumari, Dharen Kumar Pandey, Satish Kumar and Emma Xu
The study aims to examine the impact of six events related to the escalating Indo-China border conflicts in 2020 on the Indian stock market, including the role of firm-specific…
Abstract
Purpose
The study aims to examine the impact of six events related to the escalating Indo-China border conflicts in 2020 on the Indian stock market, including the role of firm-specific variables.
Design/methodology/approach
This study employs an event-study method on a sample of 481 firms from August 23, 2019 to March 3, 2022. A cross-sectional regression is employed to examine the association between event-led abnormal returns and firm characteristics.
Findings
The results show that, although the individual events reflect heterogeneous effects on stock market returns, the average impact of the event categories is negative. The study also found that net working capital, current ratio, financial leverage and operating cash flows are significant financial performance indicators and drive cumulative abnormal returns. Further, size anomaly is absent, indicating that more prominent firms are resilient to new information.
Research limitations/implications
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is an example of how these disagreements can devolve into a disaster for the parties to the war. Although wars have an impact on markets at the global level, the impacts of border disputes are local. Border disputes are ongoing, and the study's findings can be used to empower investors to make risk-averting decisions that make their portfolios resilient to such events.
Originality/value
This study provides firm-level insight into the impacts of border conflicts on stock markets. The authors compare the magnitude of such impacts on two types of events, namely injuries and casualties due to country-specific border tensions and a government ban on Chinese apps. Key implications for policymakers, stakeholders and academics are presented.
Details
Keywords
Xunfa Lu, Jingjing Sun, Guo Wei and Ching-Ter Chang
The purpose of this paper is to investigate dynamics of causal interactions and financial risk contagion among BRICS stock markets under rare events.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate dynamics of causal interactions and financial risk contagion among BRICS stock markets under rare events.
Design/methodology/approach
Two methods are adopted: The new causal inference technique, namely, the Liang causality analysis based on information flow theory and the dynamic causal index (DCI) are used to measure the financial risk contagion.
Findings
The causal relationships among the BRICS stock markets estimated by the Liang causality analysis are significantly stronger in the mid-periods of rare events than in the pre- and post-periods. Moreover, different rare events have heterogeneous effects on the causal relationships. Notably, under rare events, there is almost no significant Liang's causality between the Chinese and other four stock markets, except for a few moments, indicating that the former can provide a relatively safe haven within the BRICS. According to the DCIs, the causal linkages have significantly increased during rare events, implying that their connectivity becomes stronger under extreme conditions.
Practical implications
The obtained results not only provide important implications for investors to reasonably allocate regional financial assets, but also yield some suggestions for policymakers and financial regulators in effective supervision, especially in extreme environments.
Originality/value
This paper uses the Liang causality analysis to construct the causal networks among BRICS stock indices and characterize their causal linkages. Furthermore, the DCI derived from the causal networks is applied to measure the financial risk contagion of the BRICS countries under three rare events.
Details
Keywords
Anindita Bhattacharjee, Dolly Gaur and Kanishka Gupta
India is not geographically close to either Russia or Ukraine. However, India's trade relations with them make it vulnerable to the consequences of the war between these…
Abstract
Purpose
India is not geographically close to either Russia or Ukraine. However, India's trade relations with them make it vulnerable to the consequences of the war between these countries. Thus, the present study aims to examine the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on various sectoral indices of the Indian economy.
Design/methodology/approach
Event study methodology has been used in this study for analysis. The date of the war announcement is the event day. The sample studied includes ten sectors of the Indian economy listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Results correspond to the period of −167 days to +20 days of the announcement of the war, i.e. from June 25, 2021, to March 28, 2022.
Findings
Almost all the sample sectors earned significantly positive abnormal returns in the post-event period. The metal industry has led this group by showcasing the highest abnormal returns. Though Indian sectors made overall positive returns, the market soon corrected itself and abnormal returns were wiped out.
Practical implications
These results can benefit portfolio managers, analysts, investors and policymakers in hedging risks and selecting suitable investments during increased global uncertainty. The study's conclusions help policymakers establish an institutional and supervisory framework that will make it easier to spot systematic risks and reduce them by putting countercyclical measures in place.
Originality/value
India has no geographical proximity or trade relations with Russia or Ukraine, as strong as any other European country. However, Russia has remained a strong ally to India in the trade of defense equipment. Similar is the case with Ukraine, a significant global partner for India. Thus, the impact of conflict between these two countries has not been limited to Europe only but has also engulfed related economies. Hence, the present study is one of the first attempts to examine the burns sustained by the Indian economy due to this war.
Details
Keywords
Arpita Agnihotri and Saurabh Bhattacharya
Leveraging signalling theory and institutional environment theory, this study aims to examine how the entrepreneurial orientation of emerging market firms impacts initial public…
Abstract
Purpose
Leveraging signalling theory and institutional environment theory, this study aims to examine how the entrepreneurial orientation of emerging market firms impacts initial public offering (IPO) performance.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors conduct regression analysis based on archival data from 312 firms’ IPOs in India.
Findings
The results in the Indian context suggest it differs from IPO performance in developed markets. In an emerging market context, the findings suggest that only competitive aggressiveness is valued by investors in IPOs. The findings further show that proactiveness and autonomy negatively influence IPO underpricing.
Research limitations/implications
The research propositions imply that, owing to institutional voids in emerging markets, investors’ risk propensity and, hence, rewarding a firm’s entrepreneurial orientation differ from those in developed markets.
Originality/value
Extant literature has given limited attention to the dynamics of entrepreneurial orientation and the effect of each dimension of entrepreneurial orientation on IPO performance in emerging markets.
Details
Keywords
Sana Braiek and Houda Ben Said
This study aims to empirically explore and compare the dynamic dependency between health-care sector and Islamic industries before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to empirically explore and compare the dynamic dependency between health-care sector and Islamic industries before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Design/methodology/approach
Time-varying student-t copula is used for before, during and after COVID-19 periods. The data used are the daily frequency price series of the selected markets from February 2017 to October 2023.
Findings
Empirical results found strong evidence of significant impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the dependence structure of the studied indexes: Co-movements between various sectors are certain. The authors assist also in the birth of new dependence structure with the health-care industry in response to the COVID-19 crisis. This reflects the contagion occurrence from the health-care sector to other sectors.
Originality/value
By specifically examining the Islamic industry, this study sheds light on the resilience, challenges and opportunities within this sector, contributing novel perspectives to the broader discourse on pandemic-related impacts on economies and industries. Also, this paper conducts a comprehensive temporal analysis, examining the dynamics before, during and after the COVID-19 lockdown. Such approach enables an understanding of how the relationship between the health-care sector and the Islamic industry evolves over time, accounting for both short-term disruptions and long-term effects. By considering the pre-pandemic context, the paper adopts a longitudinal perspective, enabling a deeper understanding of how historical trends, structural factors and institutional frameworks shape the interplay between the health-care sector and the Islamic industry.
Details