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The paper compares multi-period forecasting performances by direct and iterated method using Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) models.

The paper adopts Bayesian VAR models with three different priors – independent Normal-Wishart prior, the Minnesota prior and the stochastic search variable selection (SSVS). Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to compare forecasting performances. An empirical study using US macroeconomic data are shown as an illustration.

In theory direct forecasts are more efficient asymptotically and more robust to model misspecification than iterated forecasts, and iterated forecasts tend to bias but more efficient if the one-period ahead model is correctly specified. From the results of the Monte Carlo simulations, iterated forecasts tend to outperform direct forecasts, particularly with longer lag model and with longer forecast horizons. Implementing SSVS prior generally improves forecasting performance over unrestricted VAR model for either nonstationary or stationary data.

The paper finds that iterated forecasts using model with the SSVS prior generally best outperform, suggesting that the SSVS restrictions on insignificant parameters alleviates over-parameterized problem of VAR in one-step ahead forecast and thus offers an appreciable improvement in forecast performance of iterated forecasts.

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of the relationship between different types of organizational culture (hierarchical, clan or group, market or rational and adhocratic) and sustainability through three dimensions (economic, environmental and social) in ecotourism businesses in Oaxaca and Chiapas, Mexico.

In this research 80 questionnaires were administered in the form of face-to-face interviews to ecotourism business owners'. Through a discriminant analysis and the theoretical support of the competing values framework (CVF), the prevailing types of culture were identified, and their influence was analysed through a regression analysis.

The results show that ecotourism businesses which are driven by hierarchical culture tend to have a greater focus on economic sustainability, while those businesses with a market or rational culture show a positive and significant influence on environmental sustainability. Likewise, businesses with adhocratic culture achieve sustainability holistically; however, the data reveal that clan or group culture is not associated with social sustainability.

This study offers empirical research that explains the relationship between organizational culture and sustainability. Additionally, it contributes to the study of environmental management issues in the ecotourism sector.