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North Korea may goad South Korea into limited conflict

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NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

Pyongyang claims to have tested a new nuclear-capable underwater drone -- Seoul is sceptical -- and North Korea’s foreign minister has visited Moscow. South Korean President Yoon…

Tough economic challenges await Taiwan president-elect

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TAIWAN

The election in January of Lai Ching-te as president signalled continuity in economic policy, and economic pressure from Beijing has to date had limited effect. However, Lai faces…

Limits to Russia’s ties with Turkey will persist

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RUSSIA

Energy ties, already deep, have expanded since 2022 as part of a broader reorientation of Russian commerce away from the West. The similarly authoritarian leadership styles of…

Taiwan's elections will shape cross-Strait ties

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TAIWAN

The DPP’s presidential candidate is Lai Ching-te, a former legislator and vice president of Tsai Ing-wen, who cannot seek a third term due to constitutional limitations. Lai will…

Nepal’s new ruling coalition will be unstable

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NEPAL

His Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) now has fewer governing partners. The reconfiguration included cutting ties with Sher Bahadur Deuba’s Nepali Congress, the largest…

Elite deals prop up Kenya’s weak political stability

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KENYA

Among other things, the three leaders discussed Odinga’s ambitions to become chairman of the African Union (AU) Commission. Alongside reform proposals made by a National Dialogue…

Turkish foreign policy will seek a power balance

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TURKEY

Turkey’s confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is a key driver of regional and to some extent international policy. Erdogan’s comfortable victory in the May 2023…

Seoul-Havana relations will hurt Pyongyang

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SOUTH KOREA/CUBA

South Korea’s business ties with Cuba have improved in recent decades, while Havana-Pyongyang relations have long been uneasy. Cuba’s decision came amid North Korea’s increasingly…

Dillo death may increase government fragility in Chad

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CHAD

The building was heavily damaged and its leader, Yaya Dillo Djerou, was killed. Dillo was a former rebel commander and relative of President Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, as well as…

Nigeria's Rivers State dispute raises instability risk

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NIGERIA

The dispute centres over Wike’s efforts to retain control of state resources, the legislature and administrative machinery and Fubara’s efforts to assert his independence from his…