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The purpose of this paper is to discuss the reliability of official Chinese government statistics in general, overview the evolution of China's S&T (science and technology) statistical system while highlighting the main sources of such statistics, point out some of the particular problems related to China's S&T statistics, and provide perspectives about how to best use and interpret these numbers.

Statistics of China's human resources in science and technology has been used to illustrate how such S&T statistics should be interpreted.

While the S&T data collection involving multiple government ministries causes problems, the interpretation of the data, including reconciling data from different sources and piecing information together, poses challenges to drawing an appropriate and overall picture of the development of S&T in China. In order to achieve a better understanding of China's S&T statistics, student researchers of Chinese science and technology have to comprehend the definitions, exhaust all the sources, and find and recognize discrepancies.

This paper represents the first effort to examine China's S&T statistical system, an important source of information regarding China's S&T development.

When there are few treated clusters in a pure treatment or difference-in-differences setting, t tests based on a cluster-robust variance estimator can severely over-reject. Although procedures based on the wild cluster bootstrap often work well when the number of treated clusters is not too small, they can either over-reject or under-reject seriously when it is. In a previous paper, we showed that procedures based on randomization inference (RI) can work well in such cases. However, RI can be impractical when the number of possible randomizations is small. We propose a bootstrap-based alternative to RI, which mitigates the discrete nature of RI p values in the few-clusters case. We also compare it to two other procedures. None of them works perfectly when the number of clusters is very small, but they can work surprisingly well.

This paper aims to examine and compare the dividend ratios’ statistical and economic ability to predict the equity premium in the UK and US markets and two US sub-indices (S&P 500 Growth and S&P 500 Value).

In this paper, the authors use the linear regression models to examine the dividend ratios’ statistical ability to predict the equity premium. The in-sample and out-of-sample approaches, including Diebold and Mariano (1995) statistics, and Goyal and Welch’s (2003) graphical approach, are used. Also, the mean-variance analysis is used to test the economic significance.

The paper findings indicate that the dividend ratios have in-sample and out-of-sample predictive abilities in both UK and US markets and both US sub-indices. However, the results show that the dividend ratios have a less impressive predictive ability in the US market compared to the UK market and less in the US value index than the US growth index. This could indicate that there is no relation between the number of companies that distribute dividends in each index and the informativeness of dividends ratios. Furthermore, the tests show the dividend ratios’ predictive ability departure during particular periods and in some indices.

Results and implications of this research are exclusively applied to the US and UK markets. These results can also be applied with caution to other markets, taking into consideration the distinctive characteristics of these markets.

Results revealed in this paper imply that the investors in any of the indices may experience economic gain by adopting a dynamic trading strategy using the information content of the dividend ratios prediction models instead of the benchmark model, which is the prevailing simple moving average model.

This paper adds value through testing the prediction models’ economic significance in two well-developed markets, in addition to exploring the relationship between the number of companies distributing cash dividends and the dividends ratio prediction ability. Unlike most of the previous studies in which dividend ratios’ prediction ability is attributed to the number of companies that distribute dividends in the market, this paper denied this interpretation by studying two S&P 500 sub-indices. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to test the prediction models’ ability for these sub-indices.

The purpose of this paper is to present a new methodology, used for dynamic reliability analysis of a gear transmission system (GTS) of wind turbine (WT), which could be used for assembly decision-making of the parts with errors to improve the GTS’s performance.

This paper involves the dynamic and dynamic reliability analysis of a GTS. The history curves of dynamic responses of the parts are obtained with the developed gear-bearing coupling dynamic model considering the random errors, failure dependency and random load. Then, the surrogate models of the mean and standard deviation of responses are presented by statistics, rain flow counting method and corrected-partial least squares regression response surface method. Further, a novel dynamic reliability model based on the maximum extreme theory, a theory of sequential statistics, equivalent principles and the inverse transform theory of random variable sampling, is developed to overcome the limitations of traditional methods.

The dynamic reliability of GTS considering the different impact factors are evaluated. The proposed reliability methodology not only overcomes the limitations associated with traditional approaches but also provides good guidance to assembly the parts in a GTS to its best performance.

Instead of constant errors, this paper considers the randomness of the impact factors to develop the dynamic reliability model. Further, instead of the limitation of the normal distribution of the random parameters in the traditional method, the proposed methodology can deal with the problems with non-normal distribution parameters, which is more suitable for the real engineering problems.

We consider conditional distribution and conditional density functionals in the space of generalized functions. The approach follows Phillips (1985, 1991, 1995) who employed generalized functions to overcome non-differentiability in order to develop expansions. We obtain the limit of the kernel estimators for weakly dependent data, even under non-differentiability of the distribution function; the limit Gaussian process is characterized as a stochastic random functional (random generalized function) on the suitable function space. An alternative simple to compute estimator based on the empirical distribution function is proposed for the generalized random functional. For test statistics based on this estimator, limit properties are established. A Monte Carlo experiment demonstrates good finite sample performance of the statistics for testing logit and probit specification in binary choice models.

This research aims to examine hedge funds’ performance, risk and flow before and after the implementation of the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act.

This paper includes the use of different factor models to highlight the performance and risk of hedge funds before and after the implementation of the STOCK Act. Hedge fund holdings are retrieved from Thomson Reuters Lipper Hedge Fund Database (TASS).

This study finds significant differences before and after the implementation of the STOCK Act. The results for the entire sample period indicate that hedge funds suffered lower-alpha, standard deviation and idiosyncratic risk after the implementation of the STOCK Act.

The paper’s originality and value lie in addressing the relationship gap between the STOCK Act and hedge fund performance.

This paper aims to investigate the volatility transmission and dynamics in China Securities Index (CSI) 300 index futures market.

This paper applies the bivariate Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models using high frequency data. Estimates for the bivariate GARCH models are obtained by maximising the log-likelihood of the probability density function of a conditional Student’s t distribution.

This empirical analysis yields a few interesting results: there is a one-way feedback of volatility transmission from the CSI 300 index futures to spot returns, suggesting index futures market leads the spot market; volatility response to past bad news is asymmetric for both markets; volatility can be intensified by the disequilibrium between spot and futures prices; and trading volume has significant impact on volatility for both markets. These results reveal new evidence on the informational efficiency of the CSI 300 index futures market compared to earlier studies.

This paper shows that the CSI 300 index futures market has improved in terms of price discovery one year after its existence compared to its early days. This is an important finding for market participants and regulators. Further, this study considers the volatility response to news, market disequilibrium and trading volume. The findings are thus useful for financial risk management.

This paper aims to describe two Web-based technologies of geographic information systems (GIS) to be used in monitoring and analysis of environmental processes, proposed by the authors. The technologies analyze the temporal aspect of the process together with the spatial aspect, which defers them from most other works on environmental processes, as these are usually limited either to spatial statistics or to temporal statistics. The approach is instrumental in dynamically finding the relationships between the processes and predicting critical incidents.

Often, the study of natural processes is limited to the analysis of their spatial properties presented by individual time series. The principal idea of this approach consists in supplementing this traditional analysis with the analysis of time fields. In this way, the authors are able to analyze temporal and spatial properties of environmental processes together.

The paper presents two technologies which provide the analysis of spatial and temporal data obtained in natural environment monitoring. The discussed spatio-temporal data mining methods are shown to enable the research into environmental processes, and the solution of practical issues of critical situation forecasts.

The paper discussed Web-based GIS technologies for the analysis of the temporal aspect of the environmental process together with the spatial aspect. Application examples demonstrate the ability of this approach to find the relationships in dynamics of the processes and to predict critical incidents.

This study investigated the micro–macro link in the hospitality and tourism (H&T) sector, specifically considering whether the gender diversity, independence and board attendance rates of H&T firms' boards, alongside the moderation effect of board policies, played a significant role in tourism sector performance.

The 2011–2018 data were retrieved from the World Bank and the Thomson Reuters Eikon databases, and fixed effects panel regression was conducted.

While female directors were a significant driver of tourism sector performance in terms of tourist arrivals and tourism receipts, independent directors were effective in improving tourist arrivals only. Furthermore, moderation analyses demonstrated the inefficacy of board policies in enhancing these directors' contributions to the sector's development. Moreover, the findings revealed the inefficiency of board meetings.

Concerning the efficacy of board policies, the results suggest that firms' boards should review and revise their policies. Surprisingly, while board-diversity policies made no difference to female directors' role in the sector's development (although females were influential), board-independence policies produced unexpected results. In the absence of a board-independence policy, independent directors are influential, but if a policy exists, they are not.

Although prior firm-level studies tested whether board characteristics enhanced firms' performance in the H&T sector, they did not investigate whether board characteristics promoted tourism sector performance. Moreover, the moderating effect of board policies on boards' structures and tourism sector performance has not yet been examined.