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All over the world, the role of central banks is being redefined following the outbreak of the global financial crisis and subsequent breakdown of the “great moderation”…
All over the world, the role of central banks is being redefined following the outbreak of the global financial crisis and subsequent breakdown of the “great moderation” consensus. Consequently, most advanced economies adopted non-conventional approaches of monetary policy which resulted in spill-overs to emerging markets and developing countries with implications on their financial system and monetary policy transmission. This, coupled with, internal developments in the financial systems of developing countries necessitated modifications of not only monetary policy frameworks but also responsibilities of most central banks. This chapter acknowledges possible evolutions of the financial structure variables in developing countries and uses data from Kenya to analyze the dynamic linkages between financial sector variables and monetary policy transmission in the light of the financial crisis. The study used structural vector autoregression to examine the relationship between financial structure variables and monetary policy as well as assess the relative importance of various monetary transmission channels in Kenya. The results show that the changing financial structure represented by credit to the private sector and stock market indicators in Kenya only slightly altered relative importance of monetary policy transmission. The insignificance of credit to the private sector suggests that the importance attached to the bank lending channel in previous studies is waning while the marginal significance of the stock market indicator signals the potential for asset price channel. The results also indicate that the interest rate and exchange rate channels are relatively more important in Kenya while the asset prices is only marginally significant and bank lending channel is the weakest in the intermediate stage of monetary policy transmission. However, transmission of monetary policy to the ultimate objectives is somewhat slow and weak to inflation and almost absent to output. The result implies a limited role of monetary policy on growth and questions the wisdom of pursuing multiple objectives.
The purpose of this paper is to assess the suitability of adopting inflation targeting in an emerging market, based on the pre‐conditions of inflation targeting identified…
The purpose of this paper is to assess the suitability of adopting inflation targeting in an emerging market, based on the pre‐conditions of inflation targeting identified in the literature.
The study uses Granger causality and VAR approaches to assess the importance of the relationship between monetary policy variables and inflation.
The findings indicate a dominant role of fiscal policy on both prices and output. The results therefore support the fiscal theory of price level, implying a need for incorporation of a fiscal variable in the design of monetary policy. The study also observes that the employment contract of the office of the governor is relatively short‐term and less than the Kenyan election cycle. The exchange rate is found to have no role on both prices and output. More importantly, the results show that the Kenyan economy does not meet all the conditions necessary for adopting inflation targeting.
The study described in the paper is novel, as it is the first attempt the authors are aware of that empirically assesses the feasibility of inflation targeting in Kenya. The paper provides policy makers in emerging markets with useful information on the choice of appropriate policy frameworks for maintaining price stability. It also demonstrates the need for evaluation of any policy framework before adoption.
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of asset price channel in monetary policy transmission and the effect of stock market volatility on monetary…
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of asset price channel in monetary policy transmission and the effect of stock market volatility on monetary policy in Kenya.
Empirical analysis is based on quantitative analysis which incorporates both descriptive analysis and empirical approach. The study specifically uses the VAR approach which is most appropriate for this kind of study involving analysis of policy shocks on macroeconomic variables.
The main findings of this paper are as follows: first, the evidence of the existence of the asset price channel of monetary policy transmission is mixed in Kenya. Second, while the effect of monetary policy on stock price volatility is not significant, stock market volatility creates instability in monetary policy variables, implying that information from the stock market may be important in predicting the business cycle.
The paper provides useful policy insights to academicians, economists and central bankers who are interested in understanding the financial stability‐monetary policy nexus. This is important considering that most economies are emerging from the effects of the global financial crisis and they are thus enhancing financial stability measures. No such study that the authors are aware of has been conducted using data for Kenya.