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The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of bank consolidation and foreign ownership on bank risk taking in the Egyptian banking sector.

Following prior studies (e.g. Yeyati and Micco, 2007; Barry et al., 2011), this study uses pooled Ordinary Least Squares regression models under two main analyses to test the relation between concentration and foreign ownership on one hand and bank risk-taking behavior on the other hand, where observations are pooled across banks and years for the 2000-2011 period. The reform plan was launched in 2004 and resulted in various restructuring activities in the banking system. Thus, to control for the effect of implementing the financial sector reform plan on bank insolvency and credit risk, this study includes a reform dummy variable (RFM) for the post-reform period in models testing the association between consolidation, foreign ownership and bank risk. Therefore, this categorical variable identifies whether bank risk is related to the reform activities that have been observed during the post-restructuring period, 2005-2011. Moreover, to accommodate the possibility that effects of bank concentration and foreign ownership on bank risk differ due to the implementation of the reform plan, the author create two interaction terms: one uses the product of the reform dummy variable and concentration measures, while the other uses the product of the reform dummy and foreign ownership variables to capture interactions. These interaction terms and the dummy variable provide ample room to capture the effect of bank concentration and foreign ownership on bank risks during the post-reform period.

This study provides empirical evidence that bank concentration is associated with low insolvency risk and credit risk as measured by loan loss provisions (LLP) in the post-reform period. These results are consistent with the “concentration-stability” view, suggesting that concentration of the banking sector will enhance stability. Moreover, evidence shows that while a higher presence of foreign banks reduces bank credit risk in the post-reform period, it appears to increase insolvency risk. These results are robust to using alternative measures. These findings imply that regulators in emerging countries should support foreign investments in banks to transfer better managerial skills and systems. However, government-owned banks are found to be more prone to insolvency and credit risks; thus, their ownership should not be encouraged. Finally, policy makers should reinforce bank consolidation, be prudent in determining the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) and monitor intensively less profitable, well-capitalized and small-sized banks.

Consolidation of the banking sector decreases insolvency risk and credit risk, as measured by LLP in the post-reform period. This study proposes that bank supervisors implement prudent polices in determining the bank CAR, and monitor intensively less profitable, well-capitalized and smaller banks, as they have incentives to increase risk. In addition, regulators should encourage foreign investment in the banking sector and facilitate their operations in Egypt.

Bank supervisors should intensely monitor banks with high-CARs that exceed mandatory requirements because they may be more likely to engage in more risk-taking activities.

It provides empirical evidence from a country-specific, emerging market perspective, in which restructuring events affect the national economy. Egypt, similar to other emerging countries in Africa, pursues an institutionally based (bank-based) system of corporate governance, where banks are the primary sources of finance for firms. Therefore, restructuring banks and other financial institutions and supervising their operations ensure the soundness and stability of these institutions, which represent the nerve of emerging economies. Because emerging countries tend to share common characteristics and economic conditions, and the reform of their financial systems is significant for economic development, the Egyptian banking reform and restructuring program should be of interest to other emerging countries to capitalize on this experiment. While international studies on these relationships are mostly cross-country or focus on US banks, firm-specific studies are scant. Furthermore, the findings of this study should be of interest to Egyptian regulators, bank supervisors and policy makers studying the implications of bank reforms.

The purpose of this research is to investigate whether inclusion of risk assessment variables in the multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) model improved the banks ability in making correct customer classification, predict firm's performance and credit risk assessment.

The paper reviews literature on the application of financial distress and credit scoring methods, and the use of risk assessment variables in classification models. The study used a sample of 56 performing and non‐performing assets (NPA) of a privatized commercial bank in Tanzania. Financial ratios were used as independent variables for building the MDA model with a variation of five MDA models. Different statistical tests for normality, equality of covariance, goodness of fit and multi‐colinearity were performed. Using the estimation and validation samples, test results showed that the MDA base model had a higher level of predictability hence classifying correctly the performing and NPA with a correctness of 92.9 and 96.4 percent, respectively. Lagging the classification two years, the results showed that the model could predict correctly two years in advance. When MDA was used as a risk assessment model, it showed improved correct customer classification and credit risk assessment.

The findings confirmed financial ratios as good classification and predictor variables of firm's performance. If the bank had used the MDA for classifying and evaluating its customers, the probability of failure could have been known two years before actual failure, and the misclassification costs could have been calculated objectively. In this way, the bank could have reduced its non‐performing loans and its credit risk exposure.

The valiadation sample used in the study was smaller compared to the estimation sample. MDA works better as a credit scoring method in the banking environment two years before and after failure. The study was done on the current financial crisis of 2009.

Use of MDA helps banks to determine objectively the misclassification costs and its expected misclassification errors plus determining the provisions for bad debts. Banks could have reduced the non‐performing loans and their credit risks exposure if they had used the MDA method in the loan‐evaluation and classification process. The study has proved that quantitative credit scoring models improve management decision making as compared to subjective assessment methods. For improved credit and risk assessment, a combination of both qualitative and quantitave methods should be considered.

The findings have shown that using the MDA, commercial banks could have improved their objective decision making by correctly classifying the credit worthiness of a customer, predicting firm's future performance as well as assessing their credit risk. It has also shown that other than financial variables, inclusion of stability measures improves management decision making and objective provisioning of bad debts. The recent financial crisis emphasizes the need for developing objective credit scoring methods and instituting prudent risk assessment culture to limit the extent and potential of failure.

This study proposes a new model for assessing supply chain sustainability risk integrating subjectivity and objectivity of decision-maker. Research has shown the vacancy of study in dealing with the above issue. To fill this research gap, a new decision support model considering the subjectivity and objectivity of decision-makers in assigning the weight of the supply chain risk reprioritization criteria is presented and demonstrated using a case example.

This study adopts a new decision support model for assessing supply chain sustainability risk based on additional failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) parameters and its integration with preference selection index (PSI) methodology and the Shannon entropy. A case example of the supply chain small and medium enterprise (SME) producing handy crafts has been used in this study.

The result of the study reveals critical sustainability risk dimensions and their risk elements demanding management attention to support realization to a more sustainable business operation.

The use of a single case study is often associated as a limitation in the research studies, and this study is based on findings from SMEs in the handy craft sector in a developing country. Nonetheless, future studies may focus on replicating this study using more samples. This preliminary study provides academics and practitioners with an exemplar of supply chain sustainability risk assessment from the SME in a developing country.

The result of this study is beneficial for practitioners, particularly owner-managers of SMEs who can use this study as guidance on how to identify and select the critical sustainability risks and plan mitigating strategies accordingly.

Scientific effort on appraising criticality of supply chain sustainability risks considering subjectivity and objectivity of decision-maker simultaneously is missing in earlier studies. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first paper applying the PSI and Shannon entropy method and using it for evaluating the impact of supply chain risk based on five sustainability pillars. The findings and suggestions for future research initiatives will provide new insights for scholars and practitioners in managing SME supply chain sustainability risks.

This paper attempts to summarize the information contained in bank financial statements on the risk management capabilities of banks and then ascertains the sensitivity of bank stocks to risk management.

The theoretical framework is derived from a bank's accounting identities. The paper interprets the selected accounting ratios as risk management variables and attempts to gauge the overall risk management capability of banks by summarizing these accounting ratios as scores through the application of multivariate statistical techniques. Finally, the paper analyzes the impact of these risk management scores on stock returns through regression analysis.

The results based on data for Indian banks reveal that banks' risk management capabilities have been improving over time except for in the last two years. Returns on the banks' stocks appear to be sensitive to risk management capability of banks.

The results suggest that banks that want to enhance shareholder wealth have to focus on successfully managing various underlying risks. The findings have implications for investors who may benefit by going long on shares of banks that are better risk managers. The findings are useful for the regulator in developing quantitative indicators of soundness of the banking system.

First, this study suggests a novel way of looking at bank financial statements, i.e. from the risk management perspective. Second, the study develops summary scores of risk management capabilities of banks. Third, risk management is shown to be an important determinant of stock returns of banks.

This paper aims to gauge the quality of risk disclosure in 3,872 annual reports of Indian corporates, using a risk disclosure index (RDI) developed to capture both quality and quantity of risk disclosures.

Focussing on 69 risk items, the paper uses manual textual analysis and scores risk items using an ordinal scale, as opposed to the general practice of using a dichotomous scale.

The average risk index is low, but greater in the post-recession period than in the pre-recession period. Most disclosures are qualitative, both backward and forward-looking, and exhibit a negative tone. In addition, company age and industry sector have a significant impact on disclosure levels.

The choice and weighting of semantic qualities used to construct RDIs used in disclosure studies are inherently subjective. This exploratory study uses univariate analysis and does not explore the reasons for poor disclosure.

In addition to its usefulness for investors and companies’ management, the findings of non-compliance with certain mandatory provisions and a low average RDI is particularly relevant for policymakers and regulatory bodies.

Development of a summary measure/RDI that is novel in its differential weighting of the semantic qualities pertaining to quantification, time-orientation and tone. Further, it serves as an exploratory study about risk disclosure practices in the Indian context that reveals notable differences from findings of previous risk disclosure research. Moreover, the study examines the relationship between firms’ age and risk disclosure levels, a largely ignored aspect in disclosure research.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a framework for route selection in multimodal transportation which can reduce cost, lead time, risk and CO₂ emission in multimodal transportation systems.

This research proposes the development of a framework for route selection in multimodal transportation that includes a six-phase framework to select an optimal multimodal transportation route. The first phase is to collect the data of each route and select the origin and destination. The second phase is to calculate time and cost of each route by using a multimodal transport cost-model. In the third phase, the CO₂ emissions are calculated based upon the 2006 guidelines of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The fourth phase proposes an integrated quantitative risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and data envelopment analysis methodology to evaluate the multimodal transportation risk. The fifth phase is to prioritize criteria by using the AHP which can be used in the objective function. The final phase is to calculate the optimal route by using the zero-one goal programming.

The aims of the model are to minimize transportation costs, transportation time, risk and CO₂ emission.

The approach has been tested on a realistic multimodal transportation service, originating from Bangkok in Thailand to a destination at Da Nang port in Vietnam. The results have shown that the approach can provide guidance in choosing the lowest cost route in accordance with other criteria, and to minimize the CO₂ emission effectively.

The contribution of this research lies in the development of a new decision support approach that is flexible and applicable to logistics service providers, in selecting multimodal transportation route under the multi-criteria in term of cost, time, risk and importantly the environmental impact.

This paper seeks to discuss the development of a prototype index of the factors influencing mental wellbeing in local areas in England.

To support developments in mental health policy, a prototype version of an index of the extent of factors affecting wellbeing was developed for the 149 local government areas (local authorities). The work was based on a well‐developed conceptualisation of factors affecting mental wellbeing set out in a current Department of Health background paper. This identified five domains of relevant factors with positive and negative influences in each. For each of the five domains (“a positive start in life”, “resilience and a safe and secure base”, “integrated physical and mental health” “sustainable, connected communities”, and “meaning and purpose”), the authors attempted to find proxy measures of positive and risk factors among routinely collected government statistics. This proved difficult; measures for positive factors in three domains and risk factors in four domains were identified. These were combined to give scores for overall positive and negative influences on wellbeing and a resulting overall index. This was done using the methods developed for the English Index of Multiple Deprivation.

Positive factor scores are generally higher in rural areas, particularly the West Midlands, Bedfordshire, and Cambridgeshire, a southerly strip from Somerset and Dorset to Surrey, and Yorkshire, and Northumberland in the north. In London, Richmond, Bromley, and Havering score highly. High‐risk factor scores are generally seen in most urban areas, with a band of high scores from Liverpool and Manchester, through the West Yorkshire towns to Hull and Scunthorpe, clusters in the North East around Tyneside and Teesside and central London, particularly Hackney, Haringey, Islington, Southwark, Lambeth, and Kensington and Chelsea. In London, Richmond, Harrow, and Redbridge have notably low scores. Some notable regional differences were seen in the patterns of positive and risk rankings. The North East, Yorkshire and the Humber, and the North West stand out as having generally higher positive scores for any level of risk than Midland and Southern regions; London authorities have the lowest positive – in relation to risk scores.

The authors hope that the publication of a pilot study may prove helpful in identifying some of the issues which will need to be tackled if a fully working index in this area is to be developed.

This study aims to investigate outcomes of multisystemic therapy (MST) using the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) – part I.

This study, using a pre-post design, included a sample of 2,123 Norwegian youths (mean age = 14.7, SD = 1.34). The MST team supervisors assessed the YLS/CMI risk factors in addition to five behavioral treatment goals (Lives at home, Attends school/work, No violence/threats, Law-abiding and Drug-free) before and after treatment. In addition, data included responses from parent interviews six months post treatment.

Significant correlations were found between the total and dynamic YLS/CMI change scores and the additive index of behavioral treatment goals. In addition, the YLS/CMI change scores predicted the five treatment goals at the termination of treatment and at six-month follow-up.

The results indicate that the YLS/CMI is a valuable assessment tool for predicting the achievement of MST behavioral goals in adolescents with serious problem behavior.

This study provides an evaluation of the YLS/CMI in a Norwegian context and adds support for continued use of the YLS/CMI in MST.

This paper provides new insights about the YLS/CMI inventory as a tool for examining treatment change in MST. Results show that the YLS/CMI captures relevant risk factors in the youths’ environment.

The purpose of this paper is to identify factors predisposing to risk in publications written by healthcare professionals, especially those concerned with medicines.

Observation, discussion, and analysis of production methods, standards, and written outputs produced by the UK Medicines Information network as an exemplar of a healthcare organisation producing an array of publications with an accompanying tier of pre‐publication quality assurance procedures.

The factors which affect the likelihood and impact of risk in publications can be identified: author competence, quality of information sources, transformation process, audience, provenance, intended use and subject matter. These factors can be used to score a given publication and establish its risk potential relative to other publications.

It is recommended that healthcare organisations engaged in producing written material consider carefully the risks inherent in publishing, and the factors which influence risk.

The factors identified here can be used to score relative risk and to identify the highest risk publications. Higher risk documents should attract the most stringent pre‐publication quality assurance procedures.

Considered the largest investment for most households, buying a house requires careful and transparent analysis by all parties involved in the transaction. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodological framework allowing for the readjustment of trade-offs among risk evaluation criteria, considered of extreme importance in the lending decision process of mortgage loans.

Multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has proved over the years to be effective and versatile in handling compensations among criteria. Measuring attractiveness is applied by a categorical based evaluation technique (MACBETH) to a pre-established structure of credit-scoring criteria for mortgage lending risk evaluation. This pre-established structure is currently used by one of the largest banks in Portugal.

The framework allowed the authors to provide the credit experts who participated in the study with a more informed, transparent and accurate mortgage-lending risk-evaluation system. The sensitivity and robustness analyses carried out also helped in promoting discussion and supporting the readjustments made.

The study shows the usefulness of using the MACBETH approach to assist credit analysts in making better informed decisions, and opens avenues for further research. However, due to the dependence on the participants involved, extrapolations without proper caution are discouraged.

The credit analysts who participated in this study considered the framework more discerning in terms of Basel directives.

The integration of MACBETH and credit-scoring mechanisms holds great potential for risk assessment and decision support. No prior work reporting the application of MACBETH in terms of mortgage-lending risk-evaluation is known.