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Abstract

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The Theory of Monetary Aggregation
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44450-119-6

Article
Publication date: 1 August 2016

Kim Hin David Ho and Shea Jean Tay

The purpose of this paper is to examine the risk neutral and non-risk neutral pricing of Singapore Real Estate Investment Trusts (S-REITs) via comparing the average of the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the risk neutral and non-risk neutral pricing of Singapore Real Estate Investment Trusts (S-REITs) via comparing the average of the individual ratios (of deviation between expected and observed closing price/observed closing price) with the ratio (of standard deviation/mean) for closing prices via the binomial options pricing tree model.

Design/methodology/approach

If the ratio (of standard deviation/mean) ratio > the ratio (of deviation between expected and observed closing price/observed closing price), then the deviation of closing prices from the expected risk neutral prices is not significant and that the S-REIT is consistent with risk neutral pricing. If the ratio (of deviation between expected and observed closing price/observed closing price) is greater, then the S-REIT is not consistent with risk neutral pricing.

Findings

Capitacommercial Trust (CCT), Capitamall Trust (CMT) and Keppel Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) have large positive differences between the two ratios (39.86, 30.79 and 18.96 percent, respectively), implying that these S-REITs are not trading at risk neutral pricing. Suntec REIT has a small positive difference of 2.35 percent between both ratios, implying that it is trading at risk neutral pricing. Ascendas REIT has the largest negative difference between the two ratios at −4.24 percent, to be followed by Mapletree Logistics Trust at −0.44 percent. Both S-REITs are trading at risk neutral pricing. The analysis shows that CCT, CMT and Keppel REIT exhibit risk averse pricing.

Research limitations/implications

Results are consistent with prudential asset allocation for viable S-REIT portfolio investing but that not all these S-REITs exhibit strong market efficiency in their pricing.

Practical implications

Pricing may be risk neutral over a certain period but investor sentiments, fear of risks and speculative activities could affect an S-REIT’s risk neutrality.

Social implications

With enhanced risk diversification activities, the S-REITs should attain risk neutral pricing.

Originality/value

Virtually no research of this nature has been undertaken for S-REITS.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 34 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 1992

P.A. Collier, E.W. Davis, J.B. Coates and S.G. Longden

The objective of this paper is to extend research findings obtained in a preliminary survey of currency risk management in UK multinational companies (Collier and Davis, 1985) by…

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to extend research findings obtained in a preliminary survey of currency risk management in UK multinational companies (Collier and Davis, 1985) by presenting a case study analysis of currency risk management practice in large UK and US multinational companies. The research is specifically concerned with aspects of the management of foreign currency transaction and translation risk by multinational companies and the extent of risk aversion in the policies adopted.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 18 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Book part
Publication date: 30 May 2018

Matteo M. Galizzi, Glenn W. Harrison and Marisa Miraldo

The use of behavioral insights and experimental methods has recently gained momentum among health policy-makers. There is a tendency, however, to reduce behavioral insights…

Abstract

The use of behavioral insights and experimental methods has recently gained momentum among health policy-makers. There is a tendency, however, to reduce behavioral insights applications in health to “nudges,” and to reduce experiments in health to “randomized controlled trials” (RCTs). We argue that there is much more to behavioral insights and experimental methods in health economics than just nudges and RCTs. First, there is a broad and rich array of complementary experimental methods spanning the lab to the field, and all of them could prove useful in health economics. Second, there are a host of challenges in health economics, policy, and management where the application of behavioral insights and experimental methods is timely and highly promising. We illustrate this point by describing applications of experimental methods and behavioral insights to one specific topic of fundamental relevance for health research and policy: the experimental elicitation and econometric estimation of risk and time preferences. We start by reviewing the main methods of measuring risk and time preferences in health. We then focus on the “behavioral econometrics” approach to jointly elicit and estimate risk and time preferences, and we illustrate its state-of-the-art applications to health.

Article
Publication date: 13 November 2007

Elisa Luciano

The implementation of credit risk models has largely relied either on the use of historical default dependence, as proxied by the correlation of equity returns, or on risk neutral…

1508

Abstract

Purpose

The implementation of credit risk models has largely relied either on the use of historical default dependence, as proxied by the correlation of equity returns, or on risk neutral equicorrelation, as extracted from CDOs. Contrary to both approaches, the purpose of this paper is to infer risk neutral dependence from CDS data, taking counterparty risk into consideration and avoiding equicorrelation. The impact of risk neutral correlation on the fees of some higher dimensional credit derivatives is also explored.

Design/methodology/approach

Copula functions are used in order to capture dependency. An application to market data is provided.

Findings

Both in the FtD and CDO cases, using (the correct) risk neutral measure instead of equity dependency has the same effect as the adoption of a copula with tail dependency instead of a Gaussian one. This should be important for those who resort to copulas in credit derivative pricing.

Originality/value

As far as is known, several attempts have been made in order to compare the behavior of different copulas in derivative pricing; however, no attempt has been made in order to extract risk neutral dependence without using the equicorrelation assumption. Therefore no attempt has been made to understand which copula features could proxy for risk neutrality, whenever risk neutral dependency cannot be inferred (for instance because CDS involving that name are not actively traded)

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 8 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 24 May 2011

Urs Luterbacher

Decisions to initiate conflict often have an irrevocable character. They tend to transform the status quo in ways that it is often foreseen only with difficulty beforehand, and…

Abstract

Decisions to initiate conflict often have an irrevocable character. They tend to transform the status quo in ways that it is often foreseen only with difficulty beforehand, and this change is then mostly impossible to undo. The sentence attributed to Colin Powell talking to President Bush about the Iraq War, “You break it, you own it,” illustrates the issue quite well. Closely linked to irrevocability is the issue of conflict costs. The uncertainty about conflicts and wars is due not only to the identity of the eventual winner but also to the costs inflicted upon the parties including the victorious ones. Often, prospective losers such as Napoleon and Hitler were initial winners who were in the end defeated by an accumulation of war costs they could not master.11There is some evidence that Napoleon, and then Hitler, were driven by increasing needs to absorb more and more territories. Clearly, Napoleon sold Louisiana to Jefferson to replenish his war chest and Hitler pillaged the central banks of conquered countries to support German military expenses. It is mostly the sunk costs associated with war that account for the irrevocability problem. Unfortunately, the literature on the formal analysis of war has not dealt with this matter, representing instead conflict as involving fixed costs or fixed cost expectancies at the onset. Additional cost estimates that should be taken by a decision-maker due to possible failures or irreversibility of actions are not considered. This is nowhere more evident than in the so-called bargaining model of conflict and war, whose numerous sometimes hidden assumptions have to be discussed and analyzed. The goal of this paper is to show that irrevocable decisions add to the cost of making them. Belligerent parties often have a tendency to minimize these especially, and this is an interesting twist of the analysis of irrevocable decision-making, if estimations of the gains of war are made on the basis of risk neutral expected utility calculations. The latter consideration leads me then to formulate alternative theories of war and conflict under the assumption of rationality.

Details

Frontiers of Peace Economics and Peace Science
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-701-8

Article
Publication date: 31 December 2002

Gary D. Schnitkey, Bruce J. Sherrick and Scott H. Irwin

This study evaluates the impacts on gross revenue distributions of the use of alternative crop insurance products across different coverage levels and across locations with…

Abstract

This study evaluates the impacts on gross revenue distributions of the use of alternative crop insurance products across different coverage levels and across locations with differing yield risks. Results are presented in terms of net costs, values‐at‐risk, and certainty equivalent returns associated with five types of multi‐peril crop insurance across different coverage levels. Findings show that the group policies often result in average payments exceeding their premium costs. Individual revenue products reduce risk in the tails more than group policies, but result in greater reductions in mean revenues. Rankings based on certainty equivalent returns and low frequency VaRs generally favor revenue products. As expected, crop insurance is associated with greater relative risk reduction in locations with greater underlying yield variability.

Details

Agricultural Finance Review, vol. 63 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-1466

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Emotions, Decision-Making, Conflict and Cooperation
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-032-9

Book part
Publication date: 1 December 2008

Soo Hong Chew, King King Li, Robin Chark and Songfa Zhong

Purpose – This experimental economics study using brain imaging techniques investigates the risk-ambiguity distinction in relation to the source preference hypothesis (Fox &…

Abstract

Purpose – This experimental economics study using brain imaging techniques investigates the risk-ambiguity distinction in relation to the source preference hypothesis (Fox & Tversky, 1995) in which identically distributed risks arising from different sources of uncertainty may engender distinct preferences for the same decision maker, contrary to classical economic thinking. The use of brain imaging enables sharper testing of the implications of different models of decision-making including Chew and Sagi's (2008) axiomatization of source preference.

Methodology/approach – Using fMRI, brain activations were observed when subjects make 48 sequential binary choices among even-chance lotteries based on whether the trailing digits of a number of stock prices at market closing would be odd or even. Subsequently, subjects rate familiarity of the stock symbols.

Findings – When contrasting brain activation from more familiar sources with those from less familiar ones, regions appearing to be more active include the putamen, medial frontal cortex, and superior temporal gyrus. ROI analysis showed that the activation patterns in the familiar–unfamiliar and unfamiliar–familiar contrasts are similar to those in the risk–ambiguity and ambiguity–risk contrasts reported by Hsu et al. (2005). This supports the conjecture that the risk-ambiguity distinction can be subsumed by the source preference hypothesis.

Research limitations/implications – Our odd–even design has the advantage of inducing the same “unambiguous” probability of half for each subject in each binary comparison. Our finding supports the implications of the Chew–Sagi model and rejects models based on global probabilistic sophistication, including rank-dependent models derived from non-additive probabilities, e.g., Choquet expected utility and cumulative prospect theory, as well as those based on multiple priors, e.g., α-maxmin. The finding in Hsu et al. (2005) that orbitofrontal cortex lesion patients display neither ambiguity aversion nor risk aversion offers further support to the Chew–Sagi model. Our finding also supports the Levy et al. (2007) contention of a single valuation system encompassing risk and ambiguity aversion.

Originality/value of chapter – This is the first neuroimaging study of the source preference hypothesis using a design which can discriminate among decision models ranging from risk-based ones to those relying on multiple priors.

Details

Neuroeconomics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84855-304-0

Article
Publication date: 14 January 2021

Ruojin Zhang, Dan Fan, Gene Lai, Junqian Wu and Jungong Li

Agricultural insurance has become increasingly important to farmers' livelihood and production in rural China. Yet despite the enormous governmental subsidizing efforts, the…

Abstract

Purpose

Agricultural insurance has become increasingly important to farmers' livelihood and production in rural China. Yet despite the enormous governmental subsidizing efforts, the insurance participation rate remains below expectations. This study revisits the linkage between farmers' risk attitudes and crop insurance utilization by providing a cross-cutting perspective such that the role of risk aversion is re-scrutinized in Chinese “kindred” village economies.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors administrated a lottery-based multiple price list (MPL) experiment by recruiting rice farmers from 12 villages in Sichuan province in southwestern China. Using the experimental data, farmers' risk attitudes are assessed and coefficients of risk aversion are estimated within the rank-dependent expected utility (RDEU) framework by maximizing a structured likelihood function.

Findings

This study provides substantiating evidence that rice farmers in southwestern China exhibit relatively high risk aversion. The authors also provide suggestive evidence of the positive relationship between farmers' risk aversion and crop insurance utilization. In addition, findings reveal that kinship network has a negative effect on crop insurance utilization, such that farmers who are connected in higher degree of kinship network have lower likelihood of crop insurance utilization, which suggests that kinship network may be substitute for formal crop insurance. Result also demonstrates that the incentive effect of risk aversion on farmers' crop insurance participation manifests differently depending on the degree of kinship network in rural China.

Originality/value

This study provides a cross-cutting perspective by scrutinizing the effects of farmers' risk attitudes and kinship network on crop insurance participation in rural China, which has received relatively little attention in the literature. Conclusions on the effects of risk aversion on crop insurance participation have been mixed in previous studies. In addition, to the best of our knowledge, little has been done to explicitly examine the influence of social proximity and networks on farmers' insurance uptake. This study attempts to fill both gaps. This study provides new insights which might shed lights on the understanding of farmers' crop insurance participation in rural China.

Details

Agricultural Finance Review, vol. 81 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-1466

Keywords

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