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This paper is motivated by the need to assess the risk profiles associated with the substantial number of items within military supply chains. The scale of supply chain management processes creates difficulties in both the complexity of the analysis and in performing risk assessments that are based on the manual (human analyst) assessment methods. Thus, analysts require methods that can be automated and that can incorporate on-going operational data on a regular basis.

The approach taken to address the identification of supply chain risk within an operational setting is based on aspects of multiobjective decision analysis (MODA). The approach constructs a risk and importance index for supply chain elements based on operational data. These indices are commensurate in value, leading to interpretable measures for decision-making.

Risk and importance indices were developed for the analysis of items within an example supply chain. Using the data on items, individual MODA models were formed and demonstrated using a prototype tool.

To better prepare risk mitigation strategies, analysts require the ability to identify potential sources of risk, especially in times of disruption such as natural disasters.

Prefabricated technology is gradually being applied to the construction of subway stations due to its characteristic of mechanization. However, the prefabricated subway station in China is in the initial stage of development, which is prone to construction safety issues. This study aims to evaluate the construction safety risks of prefabricated subway stations in China and formulate corresponding countermeasures to ensure construction safety.

A construction safety risk evaluation index system for the prefabricated subway station was established through literature research and the Delphi method. Furthermore, based on the structure entropy weight method, matter-element theory and evidence theory, a hybrid evaluation model is developed to evaluate the construction safety risks of prefabricated subway stations. The basic probability assignment (BPA) function is obtained using the matter-element theory, the index weight is calculated using the structure entropy weight method to modify the BPA function and the risk evaluation level is determined using the evidence theory. Finally, the reliability and applicability of the evaluation model are verified with a case study of a prefabricated subway station project in China.

The results indicate that the level of construction safety risks in the prefabricated subway station project is relatively low. Man risk, machine risk and method risk are the key factors affecting the overall risk of the project. The evaluation results of the first-level indexes are discussed, and targeted countermeasures are proposed. Therefore, management personnel can deeply understand the construction safety risks of prefabricated subway stations.

This research fills the research gap in the field of construction safety risk assessment of prefabricated subway stations. The methods for construction safety risk assessment are summarized to establish a reliable hybrid evaluation model, laying the foundation for future research. Moreover, the construction safety risk evaluation index system for prefabricated subway stations is proposed, which can be adopted to guide construction safety management.

The purpose of this paper is to construct an index for systemic risk in China.

This paper develops a systemic risk index for China (SRIC) using textual information from 26 leading newspapers in China. Our index measures the systematic risk from 21 topics relating to China’s economy and provides narratives of the sources of systemic risk.

SRIC effectively predicts changes in GDP, aggregate financing to the real economy and the purchasing managers’ index. Moreover, SRIC explains several other commonly used macroeconomic indicators. Our risk measure provides a helpful monitoring tool for policymakers to manage systemic risk.

The paper construct an index of systemic risk based on the information extracted from newspaper articles. This approach is new to the literature.

The aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to develop a new measure of investor sentiment rational (ISR) of developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA), (2) to investigate co-movements between the ten developing stock markets, the sentiment investor's, exchange rates and geopolitical risk (GPR) during Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, (3) to explore the key factors that might affect exchange market and capital market before and mainly during Russia–Ukraine war period.

The wavelet approach and the multivariate wavelet coherence (MWC) are applied to detect the co-movements on daily data from August 2019 to December 2022. Value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used to assess the systemic risks of exchange rate market and stock market return in the developing market.

Results of this study reveal (1) strong interdependence between GPR, investor sentiment rational (ISR), stock market index and exchange rate in short- and long-terms in most countries, as inferred from (WTC) analysis. (2) There is evidence of strong short-term co-movements between ISR and exchange rates, with ISR leading. (3) Multivariate coherency shows strong contributions of ISR and GPR index to stock market index and exchange rate returns. The findings signal the attractiveness of the Vietnamese dong, Malaysian ringgits and Tunisian dinar as a hedge for currency portfolios against GPR. The authors detect a positive connectedness in the short term between all pairs of the variables analyzed in most countries. (4) Both foreign exchange and equity markets are exposed to higher levels of systemic risk in the period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

This study provides information that supports investors, regulators and executive managers in developing countries. The impact of sentiment investor with GPR intensified the co-movements of stocks market and exchange market during 2021–2022, which overlaps with period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The purpose of the present paper is to review studies on weather index-insurance as a tool to manage the climate change impact risk on farmers and to explore the study gaps in the currently existing literature by using a systematic literature review.

This study analyzed and reviewed the 374 articles on weather index insurance (WII) based on a systematic literature search on Web of Science and Scopus databases by using the systematic literature review method.

WII studies shifted their focus on growing and emerging areas of climate change impact risk. The finding shows that the impact of climate change risk significantly influenced the viability of WII in terms of pricing and design of WII. Therefore, the cost of WII premium increases due to the uncertainty of climate change impact that enhances the probability of losses related to insured weather risks. However, WII has emerged as a risk management tool of climate insurance for vulnerable agrarian communities. The efficacy of WII has been significantly influenced by repetitive environmental disasters and climate change phenomena.

This study will be valuable for scholars to recognize the missing and emerging themes in WII.

This study will help the policy planners to understand the influence of climate change impact on WII viability.

This study is the original work of the author. An attempt has been made in the present study to systematically examine the viability of WII for insuring the climate change risk.

This study aims to conduct the aircraft electrical wiring interconnection system (EWIS) safety risk assessment process abundantly and hierarchically and establish the assessment index system considering the weights and interrelationships of different levels of indices.

Due to the failure of EWIS being multifactorial, hidden and diverse, this paper divides the factors influencing the failure of EWIS into 3 primary indices, 13 secondary indices and 38 tertiary indices. Taking open circuit failure (OCF) and short circuit failure (SCF) as examples, calculate the weights of assessment indices based on the triangular fuzzy number analytic hierarchy process (TFNAHP) and triangular fuzzy number decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (TFNDEMATEL). The cloud model (CM) divides the risk levels and obtains the safety risk assessment results. The comparative analyses of different weight calculation methods, different failure modes and different aircraft EWIS zones verify the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.

The results show that the proposed method aligns more with the actual situation than other methods. Also, the results identify key focus objects in EWIS safety risk assessment, such as the surrounding environmental factors among the primary indices having the most significant influence on OCF and SCF, the risk level of SCF being higher than that of OCF, etc.

This paper proposes a safety risk assessment index system for aircraft EWIS based on the cable parameters, surrounding environmental factors, installation and protection methods. The weight assignment is added to the assessment index system, and the safety risk assessment model is constructed by combining TFNAHP, TFNDEMATEL and CM.

This study aims to propose an approach to assess the security of supply (SS) in a coal-fired electricity generation supply chain subject to public price regulation in Brazil. This study characterizes the Brazilian scenario of coal-fired electricity generation, which represents less than 3.5% of the energy sources.

Data from six mining companies that supply a coal plant were analyzed in a case study. The risks were characterized and objectively estimated through a synthetic multidimensional index. Structural changes in the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and exploration indicator time series of coal companies (CC) were statistically detected.

Empirical evidence demonstrates that the supply chain has a low disruption risk (SS index equal to 0.74). However, when suppliers are individually analyzed, 48.64% of all coal shows moderated disruption risk, and 2.51% is under high risk. In addition, this study finds a drop in the financial results of CC related to public regulation of coal prices. This impacts the security of coal supply.

This study discusses the influence of legal and regulatory policy risks in a coal power generation supply chain and the implications of the SS index as a management tool.

A novel SS index is presented and empirically operationalized, and its dimensions – environmental, occupational, operational, economic-financial and supply capacity – are analyzed.

Sustainable construction re-engineers the conventional project lifecycle to integrate sustainability solutions. The additional sustainability requirements introduce new layers of complexity, challenges and risks that if unaddressed, can derail the gains in sustainable construction projects. This study developed a multidimensional risk assessment model for sustainable construction projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The research activities a comprised comprehensive literature review to shortlist relevant risks, an analysis of the probability – impact rating of the shortlisted risks – and the development of a risk assessment model for SC projects in the UAE. The model is developed based on the multicriteria framework and mathematical formulation of the fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach.

The developed model quantified the overall risk level in sustainable construction projects to be 3.71 on a 5-point Likert scale, indicating that investment in SC projects in the UAE is risky and should be carefully managed. The developed model further revealed that each of the risk groups, comprising management (3.82), technical (3.78), stakeholder (3.68), regulatory (3.66), material (3.53) and economic risks (3.502), presents a significant threat to realizing outcomes typical of SC projects.

This study developed a multidimensional risk assessment model capable of objectively quantifying the overall risk level and provides decision support to project teams to improve risk management in sustainable construction projects.

The aim of the paper is to investigate the risk-hedging and/or safe haven properties of environmental, social and governance (ESG) index during the COVID-19 in China.

This paper employs the DCC, VCC, CCC as well as Newey–West estimator regression.

The findings provide empirical evidence of the risk hedging properties of ESG indexes as well as of the environmental, social and governance thematic indexes during the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis. The results also support the superior risk hedging properties of ESG indexes over cryptocurrency. However, the authors do not find any safe haven properties of ESG, Bitcoin, gold and West Texas Intermediate (WTI).

The paper offers therefore, practical policy implications for asset managers, central bankers and investors suggesting the pandemic risk-hedging opportunities of ESG investments.

The study represents one of the first empirical contributions examining safe-haven and hedging properties of ESG indexes compared to traditional and innovative safe haven assets, during the eruption of the COVID-19 crisis.

This paper examines the relationship between sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and several macroeconomic factors in an asymmetric setting and distinguishes between short-run and long-run impacts. Country-specific factors (e.g. equity index, international reserves, interest rate and industrial production) and global factors (e.g. US stock volatility [VIX], geopolitical risk and oil price) are the main explanatory variables.

This analysis uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach that enables us to study both long-run and short-run dynamics.

This study results show that two country-specific factors (equity index and international reserves) and two global factors (VIX and oil price) are the most important factors and affect CDS asymmetrically.

The asymmetric relationships between sovereign CDS and variables in bull and bear markets can also be studied. Consideration of asymmetries in the variance could also be a fruitful step taken for further research.

The findings imply that investors and portfolio managers should design their investment and hedging decisions related to government bonds by taking into account the existence of an asymmetric relationship.

Moreover, policymakers can benefit from this asymmetric information in the timing of debt issuance.

This paper examines the relationship between sovereign CDS and several macroeconomic factors in an asymmetric setting and distinguishes between short-run and long-run impacts.