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Article
Publication date: 1 June 1998

Debra M. Amidon

This paper argues that the foundation for a new economic order has been laid. It is one that rests on the value of human potential and how it might be systematically…

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Abstract

This paper argues that the foundation for a new economic order has been laid. It is one that rests on the value of human potential and how it might be systematically leveraged for the benefit of mankind. The challenge is to determine the integral linkage between human potential and economic performance. This will be accomplished by creating a worldwide innovation vision and culture, supported by innovation tools, techniques and metrics.

Details

Journal of Knowledge Management, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1367-3270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 February 2012

Jonathan Calof, Riel Miller and Michael Jackson

This article aims to focus on how to ensure that Future‐Oriented Technology Assessment (FTA) activities have an impact on decision‐making. On the basis of the extensive

Abstract

Purpose

This article aims to focus on how to ensure that Future‐Oriented Technology Assessment (FTA) activities have an impact on decision‐making. On the basis of the extensive experience of the authors, this article seeks to offer suggestions regarding the factors that may help policy makers, academics, consultants, and others involved in FTA projects, to produce useful and meaningful contributions to decision‐making processes.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology deployed for this article is empirical. It is based on the lessons extracted and evidence produced by the authors' hundreds of diverse global consulting engagements as well as their analytical work on the subject. Added together the authors of this paper have engaged in over 80 years of professional practice. The article summarizes the results of presentations given by the authors and the ensuing discussion that occurred at the conference: Futures Oriented Technology Analysis 2011, held at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville on 13 May.

Findings

Impactful FTA starts with the selection of the appropriate methodologies and skills for the specific anticipatory task. Arguing on the basis of experience, the authors point out that the effective impact of FTA projects on decision‐making depends on a strong grasp of the principles of foresight and project design, an educated client with clear expectations and a strong commitment, well‐developed communication efforts throughout, and considerable managerial capacity both on the demand and supply sides of the process.

Originality/value

By bringing the evidence of experience to bear, this article adds value to existing academic and practitioner discussions of the effectiveness of FTA for decision‐making. The article provides an original vantage point on key questions being posed by both users and suppliers of forward‐looking activities.

Content available
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Abstract

Details

Foresight, vol. 12 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Article
Publication date: 1 February 2000

Wolfgang Michalski, Riel Miller and Barrie Stevens

The prospects for prosperity and well‐being in the 21st century will depend on leveraging social diversity to encourage technological, economic and social dynamism. A…

Abstract

The prospects for prosperity and well‐being in the 21st century will depend on leveraging social diversity to encourage technological, economic and social dynamism. A striking confluence of forces over the next twenty years could drive a twofold convergence: first, towards more highly differentiated and complex societies, and second, towards the adoption of a common set of general policy goals that are conducive to both diversity and social sustainability. In the opening decades of the 21st century four simultaneous and powerful societal transformations will give rise to more variety and interdependence: from the uniformity and obedience of the mass‐era to the uniqueness and creativity of a knowledge economy and society; from rigid and isolated command planning to flexible, open and rule‐based markets; from predominantly agricultural structures to industrial urbanization; and lastly, from a relatively fragmented world of autonomous societies and regions to the dense and indispensable interdependencies of an integrated planet. In different ways and in different parts of the world, greater social complexity will in all likelihood accompany these wrenching shifts. Rather than fear this increase in social diversity we should welcome the opportunities for learning and sharing that could bring prosperity and well‐being. Nevertheless, there are risks of heightened conflict due to the possible polarization that frequently accompanies the passing of old social orders and the emergence of new ones. Policy choices will be the determining factor in minimizing this friction and encouraging the potential synergies.

Details

Foresight, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 October 1999

Riel Miller

Few dispute the very strong likelihood that within twenty years the global information infrastructure, often referred to as the internet or “the net” will become as…

Abstract

Few dispute the very strong likelihood that within twenty years the global information infrastructure, often referred to as the internet or “the net” will become as generalized, indispensable and invisible as today”s phone or electrical networks. Many commentators also expect this digital web to become the host for cyberspace, the next frontier. This article provides an overview of where a wide range of experts from business, government and the academic world believe this rapidly expanding global information infrastructure is heading over the next two decades.

Details

Foresight, vol. 1 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 October 2000

Wolfgang michalski, Riel Miller and Barrie Stevens

At the outset of the 21st century, confidence in the effectiveness and legitimacy of established forms of governance is ebbing. This article considers historical…

Abstract

At the outset of the 21st century, confidence in the effectiveness and legitimacy of established forms of governance is ebbing. This article considers historical developments in governance, the driving forces likely to transform governance worldwide and the policies that might have the best chance of enhancing governance capacities in line with the desires and needs of the future. Challenges and propects are discussed which entail the dual policy of: encouraging a virtuous circle between governance and technological, economic and social dynamism; and targeting improvements in learning infrastructure, the frameworks for establishing confidence, and the standards (mission/values) within which society functions. By improving the capacity to make and implement decisions throughout society these policies are likely to provide one of the main stepping stones to the realization of people’s aspirations in the 21st century.

Details

Foresight, vol. 2 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 April 1999

Wolfgang Michalski, Riel Miller and Barrie Stevens

The world stands on the threshold of a tantalizing opportunity: the possibility of a sustained economic boom over the first decades of the next millennium. This article…

Abstract

The world stands on the threshold of a tantalizing opportunity: the possibility of a sustained economic boom over the first decades of the next millennium. This article outlines the confluence of forces – particularly the transition to a knowledge society, the emergence of a global economy and the pursuit of environmental sustainability – which could come together to propel huge improvements in wealth‐creating capacity and wellbeing world‐wide. The transition to a knowledge economy and society over the next few decades opens up the possibility of massive productivity gains. Equally significant, stimulus for a long boom could emerge from the creation of much more deeply integrated global markets for goods, services, capital and technology. Finally, the long boom could be sustained by a cooperative push to redirect the path of humanity’s relationship to the environment – a change entailing massive investments in new, less resource‐intensive patterns of consumption and methods of production. The unleashing of these dynamic forces hinges on two basic policy thrusts. First, economic dynamism in general and a long boom in particular will demand exceptional efforts – nationally and internationally – to encourage continuous innovation and high levels of investment. Second, with the prospects for a long boom contingent on the realization of a leap in the levels of international cooperation, decision makers will have to consider bold new approaches to negotiating and reconciling conflicting interests and divergent needs.

Details

Foresight, vol. 1 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 July 2011

Riel Miller

The purpose of this paper is to put the paper by Jay Ogilvy in the context of current debates around the philosophical foundations of future studies.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to put the paper by Jay Ogilvy in the context of current debates around the philosophical foundations of future studies.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper takes the form of a review and analyzes the current literature on foresight and philosophy of the future.

Findings

The paper finds that the practical challenge of taking a “scenaric stance”, as articulated in “Facing the fold”, cannot be addressed without going beyond the typically epistemological solutions proposed by most futurists.

Research limitations/implications

The challenge is not finding ways to “know” the future, rather to find ways to live and act with not‐knowing the future.

Practical implications

The “scenaric stance” points to a way of embracing what Henri Bergson calls “the continuous creation of unforeseeable novelty.”

Social implications

The “scenaric stance” offers one way of addressing the difficult, often deeply painful challenge of reconciling the desire for certainty with the desire to “be free” – in the Senian sense of capacity – by providing a way to embrace ambiguity and spontaneity.

Originality/value

The emergence of new solutions to how people think about the future rather than what kind of future reflects a confluence of events in the realms of theory and practice. The reason why one needs to and can rethink how one thinks about the future is original to the present conjuncture.

Details

Foresight, vol. 13 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 July 2006

Riel Miller

The purpose of this article is to explore the relationship between equity and schooling in a post‐industrial society using a scenario of the learning intensive society.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this article is to explore the relationship between equity and schooling in a post‐industrial society using a scenario of the learning intensive society.

Design/methodology/approach

The method used here, but not elaborated as such, is based on a “hybrid strategic scenario method” that is a technique for building “futures literacy”.

Findings

Industrial era schooling may be incompatible with post‐industrial heterarchical equity.

Practical implications

By questioning the role of schools in developing the capacities necessary for post‐industrial society this article calls for an examination of emergent alternatives.

Originality/value

Both the method and conclusions are distinctive and may be valuable for strategic conversations aimed at questioning the assumptions that shape the decisions made today.

Details

Foresight, vol. 8 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 June 2010

Carlo Scognamiglio

This article aims to explore anticipation from an ontological point of view and to analyze in particular some of Nicolai Hartmann's ideas.

Abstract

Purpose

This article aims to explore anticipation from an ontological point of view and to analyze in particular some of Nicolai Hartmann's ideas.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper presents a conceptual analysis of an ontological theory of anticipation.

Findings

Analyzing philosophical problems related to “futures” and “anticipation”, to the framework of modal categories, and connecting Hartmann with Ludwig von Bertalanffy and comparing the outcome with some Artistotelian theses, offers a philosophical perspective on futures studies.

Research limitations/implications

The “human” phenomenon of anticipation will be defined as possibly the only form of authentic anticipation, interpreted as a teleological act.

Originality/value

The result is obtained through the distinction, articulated for each level of reality, among different kinds of determination.

Details

Foresight, vol. 12 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

1 – 10 of 324