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This paper applies the variable forgetting factor and the fixed forgetting factor to financial time-series analysis, and establishes the linkage for the first time between the variable forgetting factor approach and kernel smoothing. We then demonstrate the use of the proposed variable forgetting factor approach to undertake forecasting of the Euro's exchange rates and the CRSP monthly net asset values (NAV). For both applications, the findings show that the kernel bandwidth so determined can improve the forecasting performance.

Advances in Econometrics is a series of research volumes first published in 1982 by JAI Press. The authors present an update to the history of the Advances in Econometrics series. The initial history, published in 2012 for the 30th Anniversary Volume, describes key events in the history of the series and provides information about key authors and contributors to Advances in Econometrics. The authors update the original history and discuss significant changes that have occurred since 2012. These changes include the addition of five new Senior Co-Editors, seven new AIE Fellows, an expansion of the AIE conferences throughout the United States and abroad, and the increase in the number of citations for the series from 7,473 in 2012 to over 25,000 by 2022.

This paper shows how a shorter fecundity horizon for females (a biological constraint) leads to age and educational disparities between husbands and wives. Empirical support is based on data from a natural experiment commencing before and ending after China’s 1980 one-child law. The results indicate that fertility in China declined by about 1.2–1.4 births per woman as a result of China’s anti-natalist policies. Concomitantly spousal age and educational differences narrowed by approximately 0.5–1.0 and 1.0–1.6 years, respectively. These decreases in the typical husband’s age and educational advantages are important in explaining the division of labor in the home, often given as a cause for the gender wage gap. Indeed, as fertility declined, which has been the historical trend in most developed countries, husband-wife age and educational differences diminished leading to less division of labor in the home and a smaller gender wage disparity. Unlike other models of division of labor in the home which rely on innately endogenous factors, this paper’s theory is based on an exogenous biological constraint.

As the world struggled to come to grips with the Covid-19 pandemic, over twenty scholars, practitioners, and global leaders wrote brief essays for this curated chapter on the role of global leadership in this extreme example of a global crisis. Their thoughts span helpful theoretical breakthroughs to essential, pragmatic adaptations by companies.

The objective of this study is to examine the impact that changes in minimum wage and the main income transfer programmes have had on the economic participation of the population and the informal sector in Argentina. The magnitude and importance that both policies have had in the Argentine case makes it possible carry out an in-depth analysis of these topics. In effect, minimum wage was periodically modified between 2002 and 2014 to be among the highest in the Latin American region while the mentioned income transfer programme – called the Universal Child Allowance – has benefited some 40 per cent of children residing in the country since its implementation.

The obtained evidence suggests that modifications to minimum wage did not produce adverse effects on employment or have a substantial impact on the probabilities of entering the informal sector. Regarding the income transfers, it was possible to confirm that it did not encourage adults in beneficiary households to become economically inactive.

Terrorism is not a new phenomenon in human life. It existed during Biblical times when Joseph, the seventeen‐year‐old son of Jacob, was kidnapped and sold into slavery by his jealous brothers. Although terrorists have been active throughout history, it is only recently that we have seen an increase in scholarly interest in the phenomenon of terrorism. One reason for this is the fact that terrorist activities have increased dramatically since the 1960s. Everyday we read in the newspapers and hear on radio and television details of the latest terrorist outrage. Many American colleges and universities now offer a course or two on terrorism as a part of their curriculum.

It is well known that volatility asymmetry exists in financial markets. This paper reviews and investigates recently developed techniques for Bayesian estimation and model selection applied to a large group of modern asymmetric heteroskedastic models. These include the GJR-GARCH, threshold autoregression with GARCH errors, TGARCH, and double threshold heteroskedastic model with auxiliary threshold variables. Further, we briefly review recent methods for Bayesian model selection, such as, reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo, Monte Carlo estimation via independent sampling from each model, and importance sampling methods. Seven heteroskedastic models are then compared, for three long series of daily Asian market returns, in a model selection study illustrating the preferred model selection method. Major evidence of nonlinearity in mean and volatility is found, with the preferred model having a weighted threshold variable of local and international market news.