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This study examines credit score migration rates of farm businesses, testing whether migration probabilities differ across business cycles. Results suggest that agricultural credit ratings are more likely to improve during expansions and deteriorate during recessions. The analysis also tests whether agricultural credit ratings depend on the previous period migration trends. The findings show that credit score ratings exhibit trend reversal where upgrades (downgrades) are more likely to be followed by downgrades (upgrades).

What causes the downward trend of real interest rates in major developed economies since the 1980s? What are the challenges of the near-zero interest and inflation rates for monetary policy? What can the policymakers learn from the latest developments in the monetary and interest rate theory? This paper aims to answer these questions by reviewing both basic principles of interest rate determination and recent academic and policy debates.

The paper critically reviews the explanations for the downward trend of real interest rates in recent decades and monetary policy options in a near-zero interest rate environment.

The decline of real interest rates is likely an outcome of multiple technological, social and economic factors including diminished productivity growth, changing demographics, elevated tail-risk concerns, time-varying convenience yields of safe assets, increased global demand for safe assets, rising wealth and income inequality, falling relative price of capital, accommodative monetary policies, and changes in industry structure that alter the investment and saving behaviors of the corporate sector. The near-zero interest rate limits the space of central banks' response to economic crises. It also challenges some conventional wisdoms of monetary theory and sparks radically new ideas about monetary policy.

This survey differs from the existing work by taking a broader view of both economics and finance literature. It critically assesses the economic forces driving the global decline of real interest rates through the lens of basic principles and empirical evidence and discusses the merits and limitations of each proposed explanation. The study emphasizes the importance of a better understanding of economic forces driving diverging trends of corporate investment and saving behaviors. It also discusses the implications of the neo-Fisherism and the fiscal theory of price level for monetary policy in a low interest rate environment.

Purpose – We investigate the impact of CEO turnover on performance and accounting-based outcomes following major business restructurings.

Design/Methodology/Approach – We analyze a sample of 217 major operational restructurings during the period 1999–2007 using regressions and other statistical tests.

Findings – We document significant improvements in postrestructuring operating and investment efficiencies with little differentiation between restructurings that involve a change in CEO and those that involve continuing CEOs. However, we find evidence of lower accounting quality for the continuing CEO firms. First, restructuring charges of CEO turnover firms are associated with lower current period unexpected core earnings and higher future period unexpected core earnings (lower levels of classification shifting). Second, CEO turnover firms have a significantly lower percentage of (i) restructuring charge reversals and (ii) prereversal shortfalls (in meeting analyst forecast estimates) followed by reversals (suggesting lower levels of subsequent earnings management). Therefore, turnover CEOs are less likely to manipulate restructuring charges to mask true economic performance than continuing CEOs. Overall, our evidence suggests continuing CEOs undertake less substantial restructurings, while opportunistically reporting similar charges and performance improvements, consistent with attempts to pool with new CEO hires to keep their jobs.

Originality/Value – Overall, our results highlight the key economic role played by top corporate managers in major business restructurings, suggesting that CEO turnover leads to both real changes in managerial actions and altered reporting incentives.

This paper quantifies the effects of recent Federal Reserve interest rate changes, specifically recent hikes and cuts in the federal funds rate since 2015, on Midwest farmland values.

The authors apply three autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models to a panel data of state-level farmland values from 1963 to 2018 to estimate the dynamic effects of interest rate changes on the US farmland market. We focus on the I-states, Lakes states and Great Plains states. The models in the study capture both short-term and long-term impacts of policy changes on land values.

The authors find that changes in the federal funds rate have long-lasting impacts on farmland values, as it takes at least a decade for the full effects of an interest rate change to be capitalized in farmland values. The results show that the three recent federal funds rate cuts in 2019 were not sufficient to offset the downward pressures from the 2015–2018 interest rate hikes, but the 2020 cut is. The combined effect of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate moves on farmland values will be positive for some time starting in 2022.

This paper provides the first empirical quantification of the immediate and long-run impacts of recent Federal Reserve interest rate moves on farmland values. The authors demonstrate the long-lasting repercussions of Federal Reserve's policy choices in the farmland market.

The purpose of this paper is to reveal the economic impact of policy reversals related to market liberalization reforms in China.

To perform the analysis, the authors hand-collect 59 financial market liberalization policy reversals from 1999 to 2017. These reversals are related to the liberalization of the stock market, bond market, derivatives market, forex market, lending market, and real estate market etc. The authors employ a stylized equilibrium interest rate model from Li et al. (2013) to deduce the impact of policy reversals on economic growth and the associated volatility after the announcement of each policy reversal.

First, the authors discover that about half of reversals are related to some tradeoff between the economic growth and the volatility associated with growth. Second, the authors also find that about a quarter of the reversals are detrimental to both the growth and the stability. These reversals, if known to policymakers, should be entirely avoided or corrected. Third, using a simple diagnostic test, the authors can identify detrimental reversals at the intra-day frequency by computing the change of the term spread and the volatility before and after the reversals.

The findings are useful for identifying effective policymaking in developing countries where mature democratic and rigorous policymaking processes are often lacking and formulating economic policies is challenging. The findings suggest that policy reversals serve China well by improving the quality of the policy made without posing destructive consequences to the existing economic infrastructure. This empirical evidence is important for a better understanding of the benefits of policy reversals on economic growth.

The empirical procedure provides a timely and objective evaluation of policy shifts, allowing for the general public to discern the rationale behind the policy decisions. Consequently, stakeholders’ trust and confidence in policymakers is enhanced so that the probability of the successful implementation of structural reforms may increase in these developing countries.

First, the results reveal some successful examples of Chinese policymaking in the path of liberalizing financial market. The authors find that the Chinese liberalization policy flip-flops have resulted in a more balanced growth on some occasions with reduced growth rate and volatility. Second, the proposed methodology provides an objective evaluation of policy shifts, allowing for the public to infer the general direction of the impact generated by policy shifts. Subsequently, stakeholders’ trust and confidence in policymakers can be enhanced and/or restored if the process of finding a successful path of structural reforms is unambiguous. Finally, the interest rate model also provides a timely method to evaluate the impact of policy shifts at an intra-day frequency, whereas most macroeconomic indicators are available at longer frequencies such as monthly or quarterly. The timeliness in understanding the economic consequences of policy reversals can be critical to prevent the destructive consequences of bad ones.

The purpose of this paper is to show that major reversals of an index (specifically BIST-30 index) can be detected uniquely on the date of reversal by checking the extreme outliers in the rate of change series using daily closing prices.

The extreme outliers are determined by checking if either the rate of change series or the volatility of the rate of change series displays more than two standard deviations on the date of reversal. Furthermore; wavelet analysis is also utilized for this purpose by checking the extreme outlier characteristics of the A1 (approximation level 1) and D3 (detail level 3) wavelet components.

Paper investigates ten major reversals of BIST-30 index during a five year period. It conclusively shows that all these major reversals are characterized by extreme outliers mentioned above. The paper also checks if these major reversals are unique in the sense of being observed only on the date of reversal but not before. The empirical results confirm the uniqueness. The paper also demonstrates empirically the fact that extreme outliers are associated only with major reversals but not minor ones.

The results are important for fund managers for whom the timely identification of the initial phase of a major bullish or bearish trend is crucial. Such timely identification of the major reversals is also important for the hedging applications since a major issue in the practical implementation of the stock index futures as a hedging instrument is the correct timing of derivatives positions.

To the best of the author’ knowledge; this is the first study dealing with the issue of major reversal identification. This is evidently so for the BIST-30 index and the use of extreme outliers for this purpose is also a novelty in the sense that neither the use of rate of change extremity nor the use of wavelet decomposition for this purpose was addressed before in the international literature.

The existing literature about return reversal effect in Chinese stock markets is inconclusive and controversial. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the presence of return reversal effect in the Shanghai A stock market.

The authors used the late-stage contrarian strategy of Malin and Bornholt (2013) for the period March 2011‒March 2016.

The results show that there is a long-term return reversal effect in the Shanghai A stock market for the period March 2011‒March 2016. When portfolios are in the formation period (P=24 months), the excess returns are significant in the holding period, Q=6, 9, 12, 24 months. Further, there is also a significant short-term momentum effect in the Shanghai A stock market. For the robustness check, a new reversal factor was introduced into the Fama‒French three-factor model. Results show that portfolios have a smaller size and have lower book-to-market ratios; the return reversal factor explains a portion of the abnormal returns and coefficient of the reversal effect is significant.

The authors caution readers from generalizing the findings of this study, as the sample is small and the focus is only on A stocks listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

The present research expands the current literature by providing a comprehensive information about the presence of the long-term and short-term return reversal effects in Shanghai A stock market. Furthermore, the Chinese stock markets have distinctive features in comparison to the developed stock markets in terms of government control, institutional structure, liquidity, cultural background, etc. Such differences affect the pattern in stock returns compared with those observed in developed stock markets. Contrary to previous studies, the present study also accounts for robustness checks. Finally, it also evaluates the possible reasons for the return reversal effect in the Shanghai market.

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a methodology to evaluate sovereign risk. Hereby, a value-based approach using different market measures is introduced.

This study’s approach aims to provide a value-based assessment of sovereign risk, combining market measures from government bond, credit derivatives and other markets as well as economic indicators.

The study finds that the assessment of sovereign risk is only possible when using information from different markets and adjusting according to the information included in these measures. Combining both market-based and economic information leads to a value-based evaluation of sovereign risk.

The practical implications are given for any institution with sovereign risk on their asset side. In fact, part of this research was done for the German Actuarial Foundation which uses the recommendations of this paper for the insurance industry.

The study’s approach is novel because it is the first to include several market-based and economic measures of a sovereign and combines it into a value-based assessment.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a new measure of earnings management flexibility based on the limits of the allowable set of accruals, prior discretionary accruals used, and the reversal rate of these accruals.

Quarterly financial data from Compustat for the period 1990‐2009 were used to construct the flexibility measure. Then the author examined how well this measure captures flexibility by investigating its effect on a firm's probability of meeting analysts' forecasts.

The results show that this flexibility measure better captures the firm‐specific flexibility than that of Barton and Simko which captures mainly the difference in flexibility across industries. Further, the positive effect of their measure on a firm's probability of meeting/beating analysts' forecasts is not observed in the extended sample period.

The flexibility measure proposed here can assist investors, analysts, or researchers to compare earnings management flexibility across firms in the same industry, which is useful in evaluating the quality of a firm's financial reports, stock picking or credit granting decisions.

This paper contributes to the earnings management literature by incorporating both the variation in flexibility used and that in flexibility limits. Second, evidence in this paper suggests that while financial benefits motivate managers to undertake earnings management, flexibility determines the extent of earnings management they can undertake. Third, this study points out that the unreversed discretionary accruals impose a constraint on the level of discretionary accruals a manager can incur in the current period, and hence have an indirect influence on current reported earnings.

The purpose of this paper is to present an empirical analysis of the European Central Bank (ECB) deposit rate dynamics during 2014–2020, attempting to answer how deep could be cut further this rate without causing persistent yield curve inversions (YCI), i.e. lower yields for longer terms. It addresses the sustainability of the traditional banking and shows that inverted yield curves would require changing the banking-as-usual model to the government-guaranteed long-term-borrowing coupled with short-term-lending. This research poses the question of whether the banking sector should become a public utility.

The future scenarios of negative interest rate (NIR) behavior are modeled seeking to increase the understanding of NIR environment. Using an event-study design, empirical analyses of the ECB deposit rate cuts on the Euro Over-Night Index Average rates is performed at different maturities.

This study finds that, starting from the lower limit of 80 basis points below zero, the ECB deposit rate is likely to result in complete YCIs.

This paper evidences that moving rates into a more negative territory is likely to be completely counterproductive for banking industry, implying that banking at such conditions would become heavily dependent on governmental support. The results shed light on the interdependence of the banking business, financial monetary policy and welfare of the society, providing policymakers with empirically defined milestones for policy implementations.

This paper clarifies the impact of the ECB deposit rate on the overall shape of yield curves. The novelty of this research resides in investigation of YCI by simulating NIR dynamics.