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Book part
Publication date: 23 April 2005

Abstract

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Modelling the Riskiness in Country Risk Ratings
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44451-837-8

Article
Publication date: 6 November 2007

Deqing Diane Li and Kenneth Yung

The purpose of this paper is twofold in examining the international transmission of REIT returns volatility. The first purpose is to add to the literature on whether the real…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is twofold in examining the international transmission of REIT returns volatility. The first purpose is to add to the literature on whether the real estate securities market and the broader equity market are integrated. The second objective of the study is to determine whether geographic risk factors can be transmitted beyond their region of influence.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the GARCH(1, 1), EGARCH, and GARCH‐M models.

Findings

The results show that there are significant international spillovers of REIT returns volatility within the Pacific region. The results also show that there are significant volatility transmissions between the Pacific and the Atlantic regions.

Practical implications

The results are consistent with the implication that the real estate sector and the general equity market are integrated such that geographic risk can be transmitted across national borders. The result will have major implications for international investment strategies.

Originality/value

To date, there has been no published study on the international transmission of REIT returns volatility. This study therefore examines whether the conditional variance of REIT returns of a country is affected by volatility transmission across markets in the same region using four Pacific markets.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 6 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

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Article
Publication date: 1 July 2006

Michael E. Drew, Mirela Malin, Tony Naughton and Madhu Veeraraghavan

Malkiel and Xu state that idiosyncratic volatility is highly correlated with size and that it plays a powerful role in explaining expected returns. The purpose of this paper is to…

Abstract

Purpose

Malkiel and Xu state that idiosyncratic volatility is highly correlated with size and that it plays a powerful role in explaining expected returns. The purpose of this paper is to ask whether idiosyncratic volatility is useful in explaining the variation in expected returns; and whether the findings can be explained by the turn of the year effect.

Design/methodology/design

Monthly stock returns and market values of all listed firms in Germany and UK covering the period 1991‐2001 from Datastream are used as the basis of the evaluation.

Findings

The paper finds that the three‐factor model provides a better description of expected returns than the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). That is, it is found that firm size and idiosyncratic volatility are related to security returns. In addition, it is noted that the findings are robust throughout the sample period

Originality/value

The paper shows that the CAPM beta alone is not sufficient to explain the variation in stock returns.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 23 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 21 November 2014

Chi Wan and Zhijie Xiao

This paper analyzes the roles of idiosyncratic risk and firm-level conditional skewness in determining cross-sectional returns. It is shown that the traditional EGARCH estimates…

Abstract

This paper analyzes the roles of idiosyncratic risk and firm-level conditional skewness in determining cross-sectional returns. It is shown that the traditional EGARCH estimates of conditional idiosyncratic volatility may bring significant finite sample estimation bias in the presence of non-Gaussianity. We propose a new estimator that has more robust sampling performance than the EGARCH MLE in the presence of heavy-tail or skewed innovations. Our cross-sectional portfolio analysis demonstrates that the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle documented by Ang, Hodrick, Xiang, and Zhang (2006) exists intertemporally. We conduct further analysis to solve the puzzle. We show that two factors idiosyncratic variance and individual conditional skewness play important roles in determining cross-sectional returns. A new concept, the “expected windfall,” is introduced as an alternate measure of conditional return skewness. After controlling for these two additional factors, we solve the major piece of this puzzle: Our cross-sectional regression tests identify a positive relationship between conditional idiosyncratic volatility and expected returns for over 99% of the total market capitalization of the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX stock exchanges.

Details

Essays in Honor of Peter C. B. Phillips
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-183-1

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 25 March 2010

Eric C. Lin

When a stock is added into the S&P 500 Index, it in effect becomes cross-listed in the Index derivative markets. When index-based trading strategies such as index arbitrage are…

Abstract

When a stock is added into the S&P 500 Index, it in effect becomes cross-listed in the Index derivative markets. When index-based trading strategies such as index arbitrage are executed, the component stocks are directly affected by such trading. We find increased volatility of daily returns, plus increased trading volume for the underlying stocks. Utilizing a list of S&P 500 Index composition changes over the period September 1976 to December 2005, we study the market-adjusted volume turnover and return variance of the stocks added to and deleted from the Index. The results indicate that after the introduction of the S&P 500 Index futures and options contracts, stocks added to the S&P 500 experience statistically significant increase in both trading volume and return volatility. Both daily and monthly return variances increase following index inclusion. When stocks are removed from the index, though, neither volatility of returns nor trading volume experiences any significant change. So, we have new evidence showing that Index inclusion changes a firm's return volatility, and supporting the destabilization hypothesis.

Details

Research in Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-726-4

Book part
Publication date: 30 November 2011

Massimo Guidolin

I survey applications of Markov switching models to the asset pricing and portfolio choice literatures. In particular, I discuss the potential that Markov switching models have to…

Abstract

I survey applications of Markov switching models to the asset pricing and portfolio choice literatures. In particular, I discuss the potential that Markov switching models have to fit financial time series and at the same time provide powerful tools to test hypotheses formulated in the light of financial theories, and to generate positive economic value, as measured by risk-adjusted performances, in dynamic asset allocation applications. The chapter also reviews the role of Markov switching dynamics in modern asset pricing models in which the no-arbitrage principle is used to characterize the properties of the fundamental pricing measure in the presence of regimes.

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Missing Data Methods: Time-Series Methods and Applications
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78052-526-6

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Book part
Publication date: 23 December 2005

Yun Wang, Abeyratna Gunasekarage and David M. Power

This study examines return and volatility spillovers from the US and Japanese stock markets to three South Asian capital markets – (i) the Bombay Stock Exchange, (ii) the Karachi…

Abstract

This study examines return and volatility spillovers from the US and Japanese stock markets to three South Asian capital markets – (i) the Bombay Stock Exchange, (ii) the Karachi Stock Exchange and (iii) the Colombo Stock Exchange. We construct a univariate EGARCH spillover model that allows the unexpected return of any particular South Asian market to be driven by a local shock, a regional shock from Japan and a global shock from the USA. The study discovers return spillovers in all three markets, and volatility spillovers from the US to the Indian and Sri Lankan markets, and from the Japanese to the Pakistani market. Regional factors seem to exert an influence on these three markets before the Asian financial crisis but the global factor becomes more important in the post-crisis period.

Details

Asia Pacific Financial Markets in Comparative Perspective: Issues and Implications for the 21st Century
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76231-258-0

Book part
Publication date: 21 August 2019

Peter Huaiyu Chen, Kasing Man, Junbo Wang and Chunchi Wu

We examine the informational roles of trades and time between trades in the domestic and overseas US Treasury markets. A vector autoregressive model is employed to assess the…

Abstract

We examine the informational roles of trades and time between trades in the domestic and overseas US Treasury markets. A vector autoregressive model is employed to assess the information content of trades and time duration between trades. We find significant impacts of trades and time duration between trades on price changes. Larger trade size induces greater price revision and return volatility, and higher trading intensity is associated with a greater price impact of trades, a faster price adjustment to new information and higher volatility. Higher informed trading and lower liquidity contribute to larger bid–ask spreads off the regular daytime trading period.

Details

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-285-6

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Article
Publication date: 17 July 2023

Ha Nguyen, Yihui Lan and Sirimon Treepongkaruna

Prior studies use two measures of firm-specific return variation (FSRV): idiosyncratic volatility in absolute and relative terms, the latter of which is also termed stock price…

Abstract

Purpose

Prior studies use two measures of firm-specific return variation (FSRV): idiosyncratic volatility in absolute and relative terms, the latter of which is also termed stock price nonsynchronicity. Whereas most research focuses on investigating the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle, the authors carry out comparison of these two measures and further investigate which of the two constituents of nonsynchronicity explain the association between FSRV and stock returns, emphasising the importance of assessing which component drives stock returns.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use the US individual stock returns from 1925 to 2016 and define the two measures of FRSV based on the Fama and French (1993) model. Specifically, the authors decompose the relative measure into two components: (i) absolute idiosyncratic volatility and (ii) systematic volatility. The authors conduct various tests based on high-minus-low, zero-investment quintile portfolio sorts and perform the Fama–MacBeth analysis by singling out each component.

Findings

The authors find a positive return on the portfolio sorted on relative idiosyncratic volatility or on systematic volatility, but find a negative return sorted on absolute idiosyncratic volatility. The results are robust after controlling for size, BM and other risk characteristics using a double-sorting approach. The Fama–MacBeth regression results show that a positive association between the relative measure and stock returns is driven primarily by the low-systematic-volatility anomaly across firms. The findings are robust to controlling for return residual momentum, skewness, jumps and information discreteness.

Originality/value

Extant research posits the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle and the low-volatility anomaly. The authors emphasize the importance of integrating these two streams of research. This study enhances the understanding of the driving force underlying the relationship between FSRV and cross-sectional stock returns.

Article
Publication date: 7 April 2023

João Paulo Vieito, Christian Espinosa, Wing-Keung Wong, Munkh-Ulzii Batmunkh, Enkhbayar Choijil and Mustafa Hussien

It has been argued in the literature that structural changes in the financial markets, such as integration, have the potential to cause herding behavior or correlated behavioral…

Abstract

Purpose

It has been argued in the literature that structural changes in the financial markets, such as integration, have the potential to cause herding behavior or correlated behavioral patterns in traders. The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there is any financial herding behavior in the Latin American Integrated Market (MILA), a transnational stock market composed of Chile, Peru, Colombia and Mexico stock exchanges and whether there is any ARCH or GARCH effect in the herding behavior models.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the modified return dispersion approach on daily index return data. The sample period is from January 03, 2002 to May 07, 2019. The data are obtained from the MILA database. To count time-varying volatilities in herding models, the authors run ARCH family regression with GARCH (1,1) settings. Hwang and Salmon (2004) model is used as a robustness test.

Findings

The authors found strong herding behavior under the general market conditions and moderate and partial herding behavior under some specified markets circumstances, such as bull and bear markets and high-low volatility states. Moreover, the pre-MILA period exhibits more herding behavior than the post-MILA period. The empirical results show that most of the ARCH and GARCH effects are statistically significant, implying that the past information of stock returns and market volatility significantly affect the volatility of following periods, which can also explain the formation of herding tendency among investors. Finally, the results of the robustness tests (Hwang and Salmon, 2004) confirm herding in all periods, except full sample period for Mexico and post-MILA period for Mexico and Colombia.

Research limitations/implications

This study investigates the herding behavior in the MILA market in terms of market return, volatility and timing. A limitation of the paper is that the authors have not included other factors on the formation of herding behavior, such as macroeconomic factors, effects of regional or international markets and policy influences. The authors will explore the issue in the extension of the paper.

Practical implications

As MILA is the first virtual integration of stock exchanges without merging, the study provides useful findings and draws good inferences of herding behavior in the MILA market in terms of market return, volatility and timing which are useful for academics, investors and policymakers in their investment and decision makings.

Social implications

The paper provides useful findings and draws good inferences of herding behavior in the MILA market in terms of market return, volatility and timing which are not only useful in practical implications, but also in social implications.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the herding literature by examining four different hypotheses in respect of the unique case of transnational stock exchange without fusions or corporate mergers, where each market maintains its independence and regulatory autonomy. The authors also contribute to the literature by including both ARCH and GARCH effects in the herding behavioral models along the Hwang and Salmon (2004) approach.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

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