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Article
Publication date: 6 November 2007

Deqing Diane Li and Kenneth Yung

The purpose of this paper is twofold in examining the international transmission of REIT returns volatility. The first purpose is to add to the literature on whether the real…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is twofold in examining the international transmission of REIT returns volatility. The first purpose is to add to the literature on whether the real estate securities market and the broader equity market are integrated. The second objective of the study is to determine whether geographic risk factors can be transmitted beyond their region of influence.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the GARCH(1, 1), EGARCH, and GARCH‐M models.

Findings

The results show that there are significant international spillovers of REIT returns volatility within the Pacific region. The results also show that there are significant volatility transmissions between the Pacific and the Atlantic regions.

Practical implications

The results are consistent with the implication that the real estate sector and the general equity market are integrated such that geographic risk can be transmitted across national borders. The result will have major implications for international investment strategies.

Originality/value

To date, there has been no published study on the international transmission of REIT returns volatility. This study therefore examines whether the conditional variance of REIT returns of a country is affected by volatility transmission across markets in the same region using four Pacific markets.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 6 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 July 2023

Ha Nguyen, Yihui Lan and Sirimon Treepongkaruna

Prior studies use two measures of firm-specific return variation (FSRV): idiosyncratic volatility in absolute and relative terms, the latter of which is also termed stock price…

Abstract

Purpose

Prior studies use two measures of firm-specific return variation (FSRV): idiosyncratic volatility in absolute and relative terms, the latter of which is also termed stock price nonsynchronicity. Whereas most research focuses on investigating the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle, the authors carry out comparison of these two measures and further investigate which of the two constituents of nonsynchronicity explain the association between FSRV and stock returns, emphasising the importance of assessing which component drives stock returns.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use the US individual stock returns from 1925 to 2016 and define the two measures of FRSV based on the Fama and French (1993) model. Specifically, the authors decompose the relative measure into two components: (i) absolute idiosyncratic volatility and (ii) systematic volatility. The authors conduct various tests based on high-minus-low, zero-investment quintile portfolio sorts and perform the Fama–MacBeth analysis by singling out each component.

Findings

The authors find a positive return on the portfolio sorted on relative idiosyncratic volatility or on systematic volatility, but find a negative return sorted on absolute idiosyncratic volatility. The results are robust after controlling for size, BM and other risk characteristics using a double-sorting approach. The Fama–MacBeth regression results show that a positive association between the relative measure and stock returns is driven primarily by the low-systematic-volatility anomaly across firms. The findings are robust to controlling for return residual momentum, skewness, jumps and information discreteness.

Originality/value

Extant research posits the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle and the low-volatility anomaly. The authors emphasize the importance of integrating these two streams of research. This study enhances the understanding of the driving force underlying the relationship between FSRV and cross-sectional stock returns.

Article
Publication date: 16 October 2019

Buvanesh Chandrasekaran and Rajesh H. Acharya

The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the volatility and return spillover between exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and their respective benchmark indices in India. The…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the volatility and return spillover between exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and their respective benchmark indices in India. The paper uses time series data which consist of equity ETF and respective index returns.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses autoregressive moving average–generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity and autoregressive moving average–exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models. The study uses data from the inception date of each ETF to December 2016.

Findings

The findings of the paper confirm that there is unidirectional return spillover from the benchmark index to ETF returns in most of the ETFs. Furthermore, ETF and benchmark index return have volatility persistence and show the presence of asymmetric volatility wherein a negative news has more influence on volatility compared to a positive news. Finally, unlike unidirectional return spillover, there is a bidirectional volatility spillover between ETF and benchmark index return.

Practical implications

The study has several practical implications for investors and regulators. A positive daily mean return over a fairly long period of time indicates that the passive equity ETFs can be a viable long-term investment option for ordinary investors. A bidirectional volatility spillover between the ETFs and benchmark index returns calls for the attention of the market regulators to examine the reasons for the same.

Originality/value

ETFs have seen fast growth in the Indian market in recent years. The present study considers the longest period data possible.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 46 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 September 2021

Rodrigue Majoie Abo

Studies on transfers to a more regulated section show an increase in information disclosure and stocks’ liquidity levels. Classical theories suggest that volatility should also be…

Abstract

Purpose

Studies on transfers to a more regulated section show an increase in information disclosure and stocks’ liquidity levels. Classical theories suggest that volatility should also be reduced. This study aims to analyse the long-term effects of a section transfer to a more regulated section (TSE 1/TSE 2) on stock return volatility.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses an empirical framework relying on two-sample t-tests and panel regressions. These use robust standard errors and control for fixed effects, day effects and macroeconomic factors. The return variance of comparable stocks’ benchmark sample, instead of market variance, is used as a control variable. Comparable stocks operate within the same industry and do not transfer during the sample period. The authors test our results’ robustness using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity estimates.

Findings

The study’s main findings show that pre-transferred stocks are more volatile than the stocks’ benchmark sample. The transfer to a more regulated section leads to a gradual decrease in the total daily stock return volatility, intraday return volatility and overnight return volatility.

Originality/value

To the best of my knowledge, this study is the first to empirically address the volatility change caused by the stocks’ transfer to a more regulated section. This study highlights the benefits of choosing section transfers to reduce volatility.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 39 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 August 2020

Mao He, Juncheng Huang and Hongquan Zhu

The purpose of our study is to explore the “idiosyncratic volatility puzzle” in Chinese stock market from the perspective of investors' heterogeneous beliefs. To delve into the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of our study is to explore the “idiosyncratic volatility puzzle” in Chinese stock market from the perspective of investors' heterogeneous beliefs. To delve into the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and investors' heterogeneous beliefs, and uncover the ability of heterogeneous beliefs, as well as to explain the “idiosyncratic volatility puzzle”, we construct our study as follows.

Design/methodology/approach

Our study adopts the unexpected trading volume as proxies of heterogeneity, the residual of Fama–French three-factor model as proxies of idiosyncratic volatility. Portfolio strategies and Fama–MacBeth regression are used to investigate the relationship between the two proxies and stock returns in Chinese A-share market.

Findings

Investors' heterogeneous beliefs, as an intermediary variable, are positively correlated with idiosyncratic volatility. Meanwhile, it could better demonstrate the negative correlation between the idiosyncratic volatility and future stock returns. It is one of the economic mechanisms linking idiosyncratic volatility to subsequent stock returns, which can account for 11.28% of the puzzle.

Originality/value

The findings indicate that idiosyncratic volatility is significantly and positively correlated with heterogeneous beliefs and that heterogeneous beliefs are effective intervening variables to explain the “idiosyncratic volatility puzzle”.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 11 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 January 2020

Josephine Dufitinema and Seppo Pynnönen

The purpose of this paper is to examine the evidence of long-range dependence behaviour in both house price returns and volatility for fifteen main regions in Finland over the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the evidence of long-range dependence behaviour in both house price returns and volatility for fifteen main regions in Finland over the period of 1988:Q1 to 2018:Q4. These regions are divided geographically into 45 cities and sub-areas according to their postcode numbers. The studied type of dwellings is apartments (block of flats) divided into one-room, two-rooms, and more than three rooms apartments types.

Design/methodology/approach

For each house price return series, both parametric and semiparametric long memory approaches are used to estimate the fractional differencing parameter d in an autoregressive fractional integrated moving average [ARFIMA (p, d, q)] process. Moreover, for cities and sub-areas with significant clustering effects (autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity [ARCH] effects), the semiparametric long memory method is used to analyse the degree of persistence in the volatility by estimating the fractional differencing parameter d in both squared and absolute price returns.

Findings

A higher degree of predictability was found in all three apartments types price returns with the estimates of the long memory parameter constrained in the stationary and invertible interval, implying that the returns of the studied types of dwellings are long-term dependent. This high level of persistence in the house price indices differs from other assets, such as stocks and commodities. Furthermore, the evidence of long-range dependence was discovered in the house price volatility with more than half of the studied samples exhibiting long memory behaviour.

Research limitations/implications

Investigating the long memory behaviour in both returns and volatility of the house prices is crucial for investment, risk and portfolio management. One reason is that the evidence of long-range dependence in the housing market returns suggests a high degree of predictability of the asset. The other reason is that the presence of long memory in the housing market volatility aids in the development of appropriate time series volatility forecasting models in this market. The study outcomes will be used in modelling and forecasting the volatility dynamics of the studied types of dwellings. The quality of the data limits the analysis and the results of the study.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first research that assesses the long memory behaviour in the Finnish housing market. Also, it is the first study that evaluates the volatility of the Finnish housing market using data on both municipal and geographical level.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research , vol. 13 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 June 2017

Chyi Lin Lee

Extensive studies have investigated the relation between risk and return in the stock and major asset markets, whereas little studies have been done for housing, particularly the…

Abstract

Purpose

Extensive studies have investigated the relation between risk and return in the stock and major asset markets, whereas little studies have been done for housing, particularly the Australian housing market. This study aims to determine the relationship between housing risk and housing return in Australia.

Design/methodology/approach

The analysis of this study involves two stages. The first stage is to estimate the presence of volatility clustering effects. Thereafter, the relation between risk and return in the Australian housing market is assessed by using a component generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity-in-mean (C-CARCH-M) model.

Findings

The empirical results show that there is a strong positive risk-return relationship in all Australian housing markets. Specifically, comparable results are also evident in all housing markets in various Australian capital cities, reflecting that Australian home buyers, in general, are risk reverse and require a premium for higher risk level. This could be attributed the unique characteristics of the Australian housing market. In addition, there is evidence to suggest that a stronger volatility clustering effect than previously documented in the daily case.

Practical implications

The findings enable more informed and practical investment decision-making regarding the relation between housing return and housing risk.

Originality/value

This paper is the first study to offer empirical evidence of the risk-return relationship in the Australian housing market. Besides, this is the first housing price volatility study that utilizes daily data.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 10 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 July 2016

Burhan F Yavas and Fahimeh Rezayat

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the linkages among equity exchange traded funds (ETF) returns and transmission of volatilities of the USA, Europe and key emerging…

1092

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the linkages among equity exchange traded funds (ETF) returns and transmission of volatilities of the USA, Europe and key emerging countries’ stock markets. Standard & Poor’s 500 (spy) and iShares Europe are used to represent the USA and European stock markets, the emerging market part of the data set consists of daily returns of equity ETF representing broad equity market indices of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China); the mist countries (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey) and South Africa and covers the period of February 3, 2012-February 28, 2014.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper utilizes multi-variate auto-regressive moving-averages (MARMA) methodology to study equity market returns and spillovers. Second, generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroskadasticity (GARCH) modeling is employed to model volatility persistence and transmissions.

Findings

The findings include the existence of significant co-movement of returns among all country ETFs; however, despite increasing interdependencies among the global stock markets there are still very good opportunities for diversification. For example, USA and Europe based investors may do well to ignore opportunities in each other’s markets but can realize diversification benefits by investing in ETFs representing China, South Africa and Turkey. As far as volatilities are concerned, the findings indicate that no ETF volatility is transmitted from the sample countries to USA, Brazil, China and South African stock markets. Also, US market volatility is transmitted to India, Russia, Mexico and Turkey while European volatility spills over to Mexico and South Korea. The presence of spillovers among stock markets’ return series and persistence of volatilities are useful to investors interested in diversifying their portfolios and to traders/fund managers who are interested in maximizing returns.

Research limitations/implications

The implications include: first, investors should not only rely on current domestic news to guide their investment decisions, but also take into consideration international news for there are substantial spillovers. Second, given that volatilities can proxy for risk, there are lessons for both individual and institutional investors in terms of further examining pricing securities, hedging and other trading strategies as well as framing regulatory policies. Third, investors should be able to ride the financial cycle by following closely monetary policies of the FED and European Central Bank and resulting credit expansion or contraction since research indicates (and as corroborated in this study) equity prices are linked to VIX which is also correlated with capital flows and credit expansion and interest rates. Limitations include: first, the investigation could be expanded to include individual countries in Europe instead of using one Europe-wide ETF. As ETFs for other emerging markets become available it is also possible to include additional countries. Second, ETFs may not be the best vehicles for diversification.

Originality/value

Methodology (MARMA and GARCH) is widely used for analyzing financial data. The use of BRIC and MIST countries and the interaction among them may be novel. Spillovers among emerging financial markets is a fairly new area. Typically, the authors see studies of spillovers from the developed countries to the developing ones. The data period is important since it covers both credit expansion and contraction (or the start of it) by the FED and is current.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 11 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 January 2016

Imlak Shaikh and Puja Padhi

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the asymmetric contemporaneous relationship between implied volatility index (India VIX) and Equity Index (S & P CNX Nifty Index)…

1014

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the asymmetric contemporaneous relationship between implied volatility index (India VIX) and Equity Index (S & P CNX Nifty Index). In addition, the study also analyzes the seasonality of implied volatility index in the form of day-of-the-week effects and option expiration cycle.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employs simple OLS estimation to analyze the contemporaneous relationship among the volatility index and stock index. In order to obtain robust results, the analysis has been presented for the calendar years and sub-periods. Moreover, the international evidenced presented for other Asian markets (Japan and China).

Findings

The empirical evidences reveal a strong persistence of asymmetry among the India VIX and Nifty stock index, at the same time the magnitude of asymmetry is not identical. The results show that the changes in India VIX occur bigger for the negative return shocks than the positive returns shocks. The similar kinds of results are recorded for the Japan and China volatility index. Particularly, the analysis also supports that India VIX holds seasonality, on the market opening VIX observed to be at its high level, and on the subsequent days it remains low. The results on the options expiration unfold the facts that India VIX remains more normal on the day of expiration.

Practical implications

The asymmetric relation and seasonal patterns are quite useful to the volatility traders to price the financial assets when market trades in the high- and low-volatility periods.

Originality/value

There is a lack of studies of this kind in the context of emerging markets like India; hence, this is an attempt in this direction. The study provides an insight to the NSE to launch some derivative products (i.e. F & Os) on India VIX that can generate more liquidity in the market for the volatility traders.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 43 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 2016

Shahan Akhtar and Naimat U. Khan

The current paper aims to fill a gap in the literature by analyzing the nature of volatility on the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100 index of the KSE, and develop an understanding…

Abstract

Purpose

The current paper aims to fill a gap in the literature by analyzing the nature of volatility on the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100 index of the KSE, and develop an understanding as to which model is most suitable for measuring volatility among those used. The study contributes significantly to the literature as, compared with the limited previous studies of Pakistan undertaken in the past, it covers three types of data (i.e. daily, weekly and monthly) for the whole period from the introduction of the KSE 100 index on November 2, 1991 to December 31, 2013. In addition, to analyze the impact of global financial crises upon volatility, the data have been divided into pre-crisis (1991-2007) and post-crisis (2008-2013) periods.

Design/methodology/approach

This study has used an advanced set of volatility models such as autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity [ARCH (1)], generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity [GARCH (1, 1)], GARCH in mean [GARCH-M (1, 1)], exponential GARCH [E-GARCH (1, 1)], threshold GARCH [T-GARCH (1, 1)], power GARCH [P-GARCH (1, 1)] and also a simple exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) model.

Findings

The results reveal that daily, weekly and monthly return series show non-normal distribution, stationarity and volatility clustering. However, the heteroskedasticity is absent only in the monthly returns making only the EWMA model usable to measure the volatility level in the monthly series. The P-GARCH (1, 1) model proved to be a better model for modeling volatility in the case of daily returns, while the GARCH (1, 1) model proved to be the most appropriate for weekly data based on the Schwarz information criterion (SIC) and log likelihood (LL) functionality. The study shows high persistence of volatility, a mean reverting process and an absence of a risk premium in the KSE market with an insignificant leverage effect only in the case of weekly returns. However, a significant leverage effect is reported regarding the daily series of the KSE 100 index. In addition, to analyze the impact of global financial crises upon volatility, the findings show that the subperiods demonstrated a slightly low volatility and the global economic crisis did not cause a rise in volatility levels.

Originality/value

Previously, the literature about volatility modeling in Pakistan’s markets has been limited to a few models of relatively small sample size. The current thesis has attempted to overcome these limitations and used diverse models for three types of data series (daily, weekly and monthly). In addition, the Pakistani economy has been beset by turmoil throughout its history, experiencing a range of shocks from the mild to the extreme. This paper has measured the impact of those shocks upon the volatility levels of the KSE.

Details

Journal of Asia Business Studies, vol. 10 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1558-7894

Keywords

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