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Se estudian los determinantes y la evolución de la actividad bursátil mensual en el mercado accionario colombiano de 2007 a 2016.

Para ello se emplean modelos de series de tiempo tipo ARIMAX y GARCH, incluyendo variables exógenas, recomendadas por la literatura previa.

Encontramos que la actividad bursátil puede ser pronosticada en buena parte por el valor rezagado a un mes y las innovaciones de cinco y 12 meses. También contribuyen a predecirla, como variables exógenas, una dummy de rendimientos positivos en los últimos tres meses, la presencia de emisiones primarias y el índice VIX de volatilidad del SP500. Estos resultados se mantienen en un alto grado al emplear medidas alternativas de actividad bursátil, el número total de operaciones y la rotación.

Se propone un modelo de predicción de la actividad bursátil que puede servir de modelo para otros mercados accionarios de Latinoamérica. El modelo obtenido es altamente predictivo del valor transado total del mercado al siguiente mes. La estimación de la actividad bursátil es de utilidad para instituciones como la Bolsa de Valores de Colombia, reguladores de los mercados financieros, así como para grandes inversionistas institucionales.

El propósito central de los mercados financieros secundarios consiste en facilitar la transacción de activos financieros, lo que debe reflejarse en alta actividad bursátil, tanto en número de operaciones como en valor transado total. La posibilidad de transar altos montos es una medida importante del desarrollo de un mercado financiero. De esta manera, el modelo aquí propuesto puede usarse para monitorizar y explicar el desarrollo del mercado. En particular, se evidencia el nocivo efecto de la debacle de Interbolsa a finales de 2012 y el positivo efecto de las emisiones primarias.

Este es el primer paper en estudiar la actividad bursátil del mercado accionario colombiano en años recientes. Sirve como modelo para el estudio y seguimiento de esta variable en otros mercados accionarios latinoamericanos.

To study the determinants and evolution of the trading activity in the Colombian Stock Market from 2007 to 2016.

ARMA time series models were used, including several explanatory variables recommended by previous literature.

We find that stock market activity can be predicted to a large extent by its lags, and that positive returns in the last three months, emissions and the VIX index are also explicative variables, as suggested by empirical studies in other countries and theoretical models of market microstructure. These results are robust by using alternative measures of trading activity, total number of trades and turnover.

The main contribution of this study is the analysis of the trading activity of the Colombian Stock Market, a critical variable for monitoring the development of any financial market.

Catering services play important role in the Spanish economy, accounting for 6.2% of GDP in 2021. To overcome the adverse economic impacts of COVID-19, catering services are considered one of the drivers to stimulate economic growth. Hence, the main aim of this paper is to analyse the sociodemographic profile of the family's main breadwinner who allocates most of his expenditure budget on different catering services before and during the pandemic caused by the COVID-19 in Spain.

The official Family Budget Survey in Spain was used. This offers information on expenditure by families in 2019 and 2020. CHAID multivariate analysis was employed. This has proved a valuable tool in predicting expenditure, as well as determining the cause–effect relationship of this expenditure.

Findings establish the main breadwinner's expenditure on catering services based on predictors such as “year” affected by the pandemic; “type of employment contract”; “gender”; and “age”. A gender “pub-gap” in consumption in bars and cafes has been revealed, and families with a male breadwinner, on a permanent contract, between the age of 40 and 60 spent the most on catering services.

This research presents a new interdisciplinary approach to family breadwinners as a company whose spend on catering is shaping the economic recovery and leading to new answers for hospitality management. Identified factors can lead to improved decision-making and contextualisation of economic models for food service providers in a post-pandemic future.