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1 – 10 of 540Robert Mwanyepedza and Syden Mishi
The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary…
Abstract
Purpose
The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.
Design/methodology/approach
The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.
Findings
Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.
Originality/value
There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.
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António Manuel Cunha and Júlio Lobão
This paper aims to explore the effects of a surge in tourism short-term rentals (STR) on housing prices in municipalities within Portugal’s two largest Metropolitan Statistical…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to explore the effects of a surge in tourism short-term rentals (STR) on housing prices in municipalities within Portugal’s two largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas.
Design/methodology/approach
This study applies the difference-in-differences (DiD) methodology by using a feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) estimator in a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) equation model.
Findings
The results show that the liberalization of STR had a significant impact on housing prices in municipalities where a higher percentage of housing was transferred to tourism. This transfer led to a leftward shift in the housing supply and a consequent increase in housing prices. These price increases are much higher than those found in previous studies on the same subject. The authors also found that municipalities with more STR had low housing elasticities, which indicates that adjustments to the transfer of real estate from housing to tourism were made by increasing house prices, and not by increasing supply quantities.
Practical implications
The study suggests that an unforeseen consequence of allowing property owners to transfer the use of real estate from housing to other services (namely, tourism) was extreme housing price increases due to inelastic housing supply.
Originality/value
This is the first time that the DiD methodology has been applied in real estate markets using FGLS in a SUR equation model and the authors show that it produces more precise estimates than the baseline OLS FE. The authors also find evidence of a supply shock provoked by STR.
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Abstract
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This paper aims to assess the long-run drivers and short-term dynamics of real house prices in Sweden for 1986Q1 to 2016Q4. More specifically, the author examines the extent to…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to assess the long-run drivers and short-term dynamics of real house prices in Sweden for 1986Q1 to 2016Q4. More specifically, the author examines the extent to which real house prices are determined by affordability, demographics and asset price factors.
Design/methodology/approach
The author conducts a cointegration analysis and applies a vector autoregression model to examine the long- and short-run responsiveness of Swedish real house prices to a number of key categories of fundamental variables.
Findings
The empirical results indicate that house prices will increase in the long run by 1.04 per cent in response to a 1 per cent increase in household real disposable income, whereas real after-tax mortgage interest and real effective exchange rates show average long-term effects of approximately – 8 and – 0.7 per cent, respectively. In addition, the results show that the growth of real house prices is affected by growth in mortgage credit, real after-tax mortgage interest rates and disposable incomes in the short run, whereas the real effective exchange rate is the most significant determinant of Swedish real house appreciation.
Originality/value
The impact of the two lending restrictions been implemented after the financial crisis – the mortgage cap in October 2010 and the amortization requirement in June 2016 – are ineffective to stabilize the housing market. This suggests that macroprudential measures designed to ease pressure on housing prices and reduce risks to financial stability need to focus on these fundamentals and address the issues of tax deductibility on mortgage rates and the gradual implementation of debt-to-income limits to contain mortgage demand and improve households’ resilience to shocks.
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Udayangani Kulatunga, Temitope Omotayo and Michele Victoria
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