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The author, a veteran futurist, aims to trace the history of the scenario process, starting with those developed by the Shell team that anticipated an OPEC manipulation of oil supplies and prices that occurred in 1973. Largely on the basis of the Shell scenario's brilliant insight, the methodology initially seemed to offer organizations a chance to bet on the future before it happened.

The paper describes how the best practices in the scenario process identified in this historical review can be adopted by current leaders.

The paper reveals that, in cases where the scenarios have effectively influenced corporate decision making, it was because the scenario team stayed together to execute the foresights they reached in the scenario process.”

Scenarios encourage strategic thinking about long‐term futures and potential discontinuities in a world that obsesses about the short‐term.

The paper concludes that scenarios, to be most effective, demand a rigor that consumes time and resources. They require leaders to open conduits to information, promote group interactions, encourage disciplined imagination and demand persistent follow‐through.

The purpose of this chapter is to identify specific instructional strategies to help English language learners develop literacy skills. Potential difficulties in areas of decoding, vocabulary, and fluency are explored along with suggestions to implement effective instruction. The intention of this chapter is not to be a research document, but a pragmatic guide for educators of English language learners. Through reflective practice and backed by research, I walk readers through classroom and professional development scenarios and also present ways to effectively support the emerging literacy skills of English language learners. Readers will be presented with research-based instructional methods shown to enhance crucial early literacy skills for English language learners along with practical suggestions for teachers to put research into practice in the classroom. Scenarios and research-based practices illuminate how to effectively work with English language learners. Research-based evidence is presented, showing that English language learners go through the same developmental milestones as native English-speaking students, but may require some additional modifications along with explicit instruction. The chapter describes how teachers can build foundational reading skills for English language learners, something that is crucial for later academic success.

The purpose of this study is to formulate exploratory scenarios of Operations Research through the critical uncertainty approach and Soft Systems Methodology.

In this study, to formulate plausible scenarios, the discipline of operation research internal and external experts’ opinions of this field have been gathered through Delphi approach and uncertainty questionnaires. After use of the most important uncertainties, plausible scenarios of operations research have been mapped with the help of experts through co-thinking workshops.

Four scenarios are presented in this study. These scenarios include Solar System, Esfandiar's Eye, Rival’s Setraps and Legendary Simurgh. Naturally, the imagination of such a unitary future for all academic communities is an expectation far from reality, and given the conditions of each of these futures or any integration of them is imaginable.

Operations Research models have been faced with variously multiple changes since its emergence until now. Investigation into the future of operations research on the necessity for his planning has not received a reasonable notice in the literature. Sporadic activities that have been carried out are also lacking in the necessary methodology. Also, there has been no research about future study using the soft Operation Research tools (Soft Systems Methodology).

Heuristics are used in the judgment and decision-making process of bank employees; however, discussions and research on the type or range of judgmental heuristics are very difficult to find throughout the world. In light of this, the purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze what types of heuristics are used in bank employees’ judgment and decision-making processes and the extent to which those types of heuristics prevent rational decision making due to the systematic biases they generate. In particular, this study aims to conduct empirical research based on various scenarios related to the banking industry.

To examine the heuristics in decision-making circumstances and the level of subsequent biases, the present study narrowed the scope of research to the three main types of heuristics introduced by Tversky and Kahneman (1974), namely, representativeness heuristics, availability heuristics and anchoring and adjustment heuristics. To analyze the bank employees’ decision making, this study specifically investigated the level of decision-making heuristics and the level of bias by focusing on these three types of heuristics. This study targeted bank employees who either sell financial products or are engaged in customer service work at a real/physical bank.

For representativeness heuristics, this study found bank employees’ judgment of probability was influenced by biases, such as insensitivity to prior probability, insensitivity to sample size, misconception of chance and insensitivity to predictability. Regarding availability heuristics, it found that bank employees judge the probability of events based on the ease of recalling an event instead of the actual frequency of the event, and so they fall prey to systematic biases. Finally, regarding anchoring and adjustment heuristics, this study found that employees fall prey to judgment biases as they judge the probability of conjunctive events and disjunctive events based on anchoring and insufficient adjustment.

Although people who are well-trained in statistics can avoid rudimentary errors, they fall prey to biased judgment at a similar level to those who are not properly trained in statistics when it comes to more complicated and ambiguous issues. It clearly indicates that it is risky to determine that financial experts would be more rational than the general public in making various judgments required in the policy-making process. To conclude, it is imperative to recognize the existence of heuristics-based systematic biases in the judgment and decision-making process and, furthermore, to reinforce the education and training system to improve bank employees’ rational choice and judgment ability.

Research has shown that more than half of attempted recovery efforts only reinforce dissatisfaction, producing a “double deviation” effect. Surprisingly, these double deviation effects have received little attention in service marketing literature. To fill this gap, this paper aims to develop and empirically test a model of how customers form satisfaction judgments in double deviation scenarios. The paper seeks to propose that emotions have a distinct and separate influence from perceived justice in explaining satisfaction with failed recovery.

The paper employs the critical incident technique to obtain data from banking customers and apply latent variable path analysis to test the proposed model.

The results of the study support the model and highlight the important role of specific recovery‐related emotions in double deviation contexts.

Future research should try to determine whether different specific negative emotions and/or the interactional and procedural components of justice affect post‐recovery judgments in double deviation scenarios.

The results show that specific emotions such as anger play an important role in explaining satisfaction with service recovery. The paper proposes that in future, customer satisfaction surveys could include items measuring specific emotions. This could increase their efficiency as managerial tools.

To the authors' knowledge, this has been the first attempt to model the effect of specific emotions triggered by the service recovery on satisfaction with service recovery and to empirically test a model of satisfaction with service recovery in double deviation scenarios. Furthermore, this study is based on the analysis of real service failures and recovery strategies.

As libraries evolve, they accommodate and refine their services to support the varied institutional, student and faculty, and course needs, including developing workshops tailored to course requirements or that provide students and faculty with additional skills that promote their academic pursuits. Some services provided by academic libraries reflect strategic choices that promote the increased alignment of the users’ needs with the institution’s needs. Some needs anticipated and observed by many research-intensive institutions are data literacy, research, and software skills. This chapter describes the case of the academic library at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV), an R1 research institution, which offered the Data Workshop Series (DWS) to help prepare students, faculty, and staff to clean, manipulate, analyze, and visualize research data. This applied, student-centered technical workshop series was guided by authentic assessment, specifically performance tasks, which were employed to ensure the participants’ engagement and comprehension of the applied techniques presented. The performance tasks also helped participants gain confidence in their data skills. From them, the participants learned that they can use the software and solve questions on their own. When reflecting on what they learned in the DWS, participants stated that they could develop their skills on their own with additional practice and that they plan on integrating the software into their academic work. By offering the DWS, UNLV Libraries has taken a step toward being part of the life of the user, a partner in more than information findings, but in knowledge creation.

The purpose of this study is to identify the drivers and future scenarios of Iran’s Social Security Organization.

The research is applied in terms of orientation and mixed in terms of methodology. In this research, the methods of theme analysis, root definitions, fuzzy Delphi and Cocoso were used. The theoretical population is the managers and senior experts of the social security organization, and the sampling method was done in a judgmental way. The tools of data collection were interviews and questionnaires. The interview tool was used to extract the main and subdrivers of the research and develop the scenarios.

Through theme analysis, 35 subdrivers were extracted in the form of economic, sociocultural, financial and investment, policy, marketing, environmental and legal themes. Due to the large number of subdrivers, these factors were screened with fuzzy Delphi. Eleven drivers had defuzzied coefficient higher than 0.7 and were selected for final prioritization. The final drivers were prioritized with the CoCoSo technique, and the two drivers of social security holdings governance and state of government revenues had the highest priority. Based on these two drivers, four scenarios of prosperity, resilient social security, unstable development and collapse have been developed.

Some of the suggestions of the research are: using the capacity of FinTechs and financial startups to invest the government revenues of the organization, using digital technologies such as business intelligence for more efficient decisions and developing corporate governance in the organization.

This study aims to formulate exploratory scenarios of the textile industry in Iran based on MICMAC and soft operational research methods.

In this study, to formulate plausible scenarios, literature reviews and external experts’ opinions of this field have been gathered through the Delphi approach and uncertainty questionnaires. After the utilization of the most important uncertainties, the textile industry’s plausible scenarios have been mapped with the help of experts through co-thinking workshops. Results show that two factors, including the business atmosphere and membership in World Trade Organization (WTO), play a more important role than the other factors. These two factors were considered for the formulation of the scenario. To formulate plausible scenarios, soft systems methodology, which is a kind of soft operational research methods, is applied.

Based on the results, four scenarios are presented. These scenarios include the Elysium scenario, Hades scenario, Tatarus scenario and Sisyphus scenario. In the Elysium scenario, the business atmosphere has improved and Iran has been granted membership of the WTO. In Hades scenario, Iran has joined the WTO, but due to the government’s weakness and inactivity and key decision-makers, the required preparations have not been made. In the Tatarus scenario, Iran is not a WTO member and the business atmosphere is disastrous. In the Sisyphus scenario, the government takes reasonable actions toward a better business environment.

Formulating plausible scenarios of the textile industry is an excellent contribution to the key beneficiaries and actors of this industry so they can present flexible preparation-based programs in the face of circumstances. Future study of the textile industry familiarizes the actors and beneficiaries of this industry with the procedures and the driving forces that influence this industry’s future and it will ascertain various scenarios for the actors of this field.

The purpose of this study is to outline the improvement of framing in Indonesia science and technology policy content, policy formulation model, policy strategy implementation and policy performance indicators.

This study is conducted by implementing action research model to generate new knowledge as a research interest, through the search for solutions or improvements to problematical situation, applying Soft Systems Methodology. Thus, this research model is regarded as Soft Systems Methodology-based Action Research (SSM-based AR).

Policy formulation is not evidence based in which policy documents remain theoretical and are impractical or not detailed in engaging real conditions and strategic issues, yet the targets are measurable despite predictive results. Change and strengthening are required in the national science and technology policy for the next period, on the basis that future research policies are encouraged to address problems and solutions to build a country based on science and technology. Indonesia requires policies involving both effective and efficient national research; therefore, the need for an integrated policy direction conveying science and technology and other related sectors, such as the health sector and food, remains vital.

Previously, science and technology policy planning in Indonesia was not equipped with data and indicators of success, having no target to achieve within a five-year period. In the coming periods, science and technology policy documents in Indonesia are issued in the form of government regulations/presidential decrees, including indicators of science and technology achievements (quantitatively) for five years.

Despite many well-intentioned efforts to improve student achievement in chronically low-performing schools, there is little evidence of significant progress. A new and different kind of data; however, is providing a fresh perspective on the problem: According to recent studies, research-based instructional strategies – those strategies that have been proven to increase the likelihood that students will be able to retain, recall, and apply what they have been taught – are not consistently used in classrooms. Irrespective of the many changes that occur in schools, student achievement will not significantly improve until teachers consistently use and school leaders consistently promote research-based instructional strategies. The purpose of this chapter is to prepare school leaders to assess the use of research-based instructional strategies in their school, and then use the data to promote more effective instruction. This chapter will provide user-friendly tools and strategies for collecting, organizing, and analyzing classroom observation data; case studies; sample data sets; findings and conclusions drawn from sample data tables; a step-by-step process for collecting the data; samples of research-based instructional strategies; and references for identifying research-based instructional strategies.