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1 – 10 of 646Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah, Maqsood Ahmad and Faisal Mahmood
This paper aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristics influences the investment decisions of individual investors, actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX)…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to clarify the mechanism by which heuristics influences the investment decisions of individual investors, actively trading on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX), and the perceived efficiency of the market. Most studies focus on well-developed financial markets and very little is known about investors’ behaviour in less developed financial markets or emerging markets. The present study contributes to filling this gap in the literature.
Design/methodology/approach
Investors’ heuristic biases have been measured using a questionnaire, containing numerous items, including indicators of speculators, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency variables. The sample consists of 143 investors trading on the PSX. A convenient, purposively sampling technique was used for data collection. To examine the relationship between heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency, hypotheses were tested by using correlation and regression analysis.
Findings
The paper provides empirical insights into the relationship of heuristic biases, investment decisions and perceived market efficiency. The results suggest that heuristic biases (overconfidence, representativeness, availability and anchoring) have a markedly negative impact on investment decisions made by individual investors actively trading on the PSX and on perceived market efficiency.
Research limitations/implications
The primary limitation of the empirical review is the tiny size of the sample. A larger sample would have given more trustworthy results and could have empowered a more extensive scope of investigation.
Practical implications
The paper encourages investors to avoid relying on heuristics or their feelings when making investments. It provides awareness and understanding of heuristic biases in investment management, which could be very useful for decision makers and professionals in financial institutions, such as portfolio managers and traders in commercial banks, investment banks and mutual funds. This paper helps investors to select better investment tools and avoid repeating expensive errors, which occur due to heuristic biases. They can improve their performance by recognizing their biases and errors of judgment, to which we are all prone, resulting in a more efficient market. So, it is necessary to focus on a specific investment strategy to control “mental mistakes” by investors, due to heuristic biases.
Originality/value
The current study is the first of its kind, focusing on the link between heuristics, individual investment decisions and perceived market efficiency within the specific context of Pakistan.
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Imran Khan, Mustafa Afeef, Shahid Jan and Anjum Ihsan
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of heuristic biases, namely, availability bias and representativeness bias on investors’ investment decisions in the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of heuristic biases, namely, availability bias and representativeness bias on investors’ investment decisions in the Pakistan stock exchange, as well as the moderating role of long-term orientation.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a structured questionnaire, a total of 374 responses have been collected from individual investors trading in PSX. The relationship was tested by applying the partial least square structural equation model using SmartPLS 3.2.2. Further, Henseler and Chin’s (2010) product indicator approach for moderation analysis was applied to the data set.
Findings
The results revealed that availability bias and representativeness bias have a significant and positive influence on the investment decisions of investors. Furthermore, a significant moderating effect of long term orientation on the effect of representativeness bias on investment decision is observed. This suggests that investors’ long term orientation weaken the effect of representativeness bias on investment decision. However, no significant moderating effect was observed for availability bias.
Originality/value
The paper provides novel insights on the role of heuristic-driven biases on the investment decisions of individual investors in the stock market. Particularly, it enhanced the understanding of behavioral aspects of investment decision-making in an emerging market.
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This article aims to systematically review the literature published in recognized journals focused on cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management…
Abstract
Purpose
This article aims to systematically review the literature published in recognized journals focused on cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management activities and market efficiency. It also includes some of the research work on the origins and foundations of behavioral finance, and how this has grown substantially to become an established and particular subject of study in its own right. The study also aims to provide future direction to the researchers working in this field.
Design/methodology/approach
For doing research synthesis, a systematic literature review (SLR) approach was applied considering research studies published within the time period, i.e. 1970–2021. This study attempted to accomplish a critical review of 176 studies out of 256 studies identified, which were published in reputable journals to synthesize the existing literature in the behavioral finance domain-related explicitly to cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their effect on investment management activities and market efficiency as well as on the origins and foundations of behavioral finance.
Findings
This review reveals that investors often use cognitive heuristics to reduce the risk of losses in uncertain situations, but that leads to errors in judgment; as a result, investors make irrational decisions, which may cause the market to overreact or underreact – in both situations, the market becomes inefficient. Overall, the literature demonstrates that there is currently no consensus on the usefulness of cognitive heuristics in the context of investment management activities and market efficiency. Therefore, a lack of consensus about this topic suggests that further studies may bring relevant contributions to the literature. Based on the gaps analysis, three major categories of gaps, namely theoretical and methodological gaps, and contextual gaps, are found, where research is needed.
Practical implications
The skillful understanding and knowledge of the cognitive heuristic-driven biases will help the investors, financial institutions and policymakers to overcome the adverse effect of these behavioral biases in the stock market. This article provides a detailed explanation of cognitive heuristic-driven biases and their influence on investment management activities and market efficiency, which could be very useful for finance practitioners, such as an investor who plays at the stock exchange, a portfolio manager, a financial strategist/advisor in an investment firm, a financial planner, an investment banker, a trader/broker at the stock exchange or a financial analyst. But most importantly, the term also includes all those persons who manage corporate entities and are responsible for making their financial management strategies.
Originality/value
Currently, no recent study exists, which reviews and evaluates the empirical research on cognitive heuristic-driven biases displayed by investors. The current study is original in discussing the role of cognitive heuristic-driven biases in investment management activities and market efficiency as well as the history and foundations of behavioral finance by means of research synthesis. This paper is useful to researchers, academicians, policymakers and those working in the area of behavioral finance in understanding the role that cognitive heuristic plays in investment management activities and market efficiency.
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Ilaria Galavotti, Andrea Lippi and Daniele Cerrato
This paper aims to develop a conceptual framework on how the representativeness heuristic operates in the decision-making process. Specifically, the authors unbundle…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to develop a conceptual framework on how the representativeness heuristic operates in the decision-making process. Specifically, the authors unbundle representativeness into its building blocks: search rule, stopping rule and decision rule. Furthermore, the focus is placed on how individual-level cognitive and behavioral factors, namely experience, intuition and overconfidence, affect the functioning of this heuristic.
Design/methodology/approach
From a theoretical standpoint, the authors build on dual-process theories and on the adaptive toolbox view from the “fast and frugal heuristics” perspective to develop an integrative conceptual framework that uncovers the mechanisms underlying the representativeness heuristic.
Findings
The authors’ conceptualization suggests that the search rule used in representativeness is based on analogical mapping from previous experience, the stopping rule is the representational stability of the analogs and the decision rule is the choice of the alternative upon which there is a convergence of representations and that exceeds the decision maker's aspiration level. In this framework, intuition may help the decision maker to cross-map potentially competing analogies, while overconfidence affects the search time and costs and alters both the stopping and the decision rule.
Originality/value
The authors develop a conceptual framework on representativeness, as one of the most common, though still poorly investigated, heuristics. The model offers a nuanced perspective that explores the cognitive and behavioral mechanisms that shape the use of representativeness in decision-making. The authors also discuss the theoretical implications of their model and outline future research avenues that may further contribute to enriching their understanding of decision-making processes.
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Nektarios Gavrilakis and Christos Floros
The purpose of this paper is to identify whether heuristic and herding biases influence portfolio construction and performance in Greece. The current research determines the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to identify whether heuristic and herding biases influence portfolio construction and performance in Greece. The current research determines the situation among investors in Greece, a country with several economic problems for the last decade.
Design/methodology/approach
A survey has been conducted covering a group of active private investors. The relationship between private investors' behavior and portfolio construction and performance was tested using a multiple regression.
Findings
The authors find that heuristic variable affects private investor's portfolio construction and performance satisfaction level positively. A robustness test on a second group, consisting of professional investors, reveals that heuristic and herding biases affect investment behavior when constructing a portfolio.
Practical implications
The authors recommend investors to select professional's investment portfolio tools in constructing investment portfolios and avoid excessive errors, which occur due to heuristic. The awareness and understanding of heuristic and herding could be helpful for professionals and decision-makers in financial institutions by improving their performance resulting in more efficient markets.
Originality/value
The main contribution of this paper lies in the fact that it is the first study on two major behavioral dimensions that affect the investor's portfolio construction and performance in Greece. The rationale of the current research is that the results are helpful for investors in order to take rational, reliable and profitable decisions.
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Chih-Hsiang Chang, Hsu-Huei Huang, Ying-Chih Chang and Tsai-Yin Lin
– The purpose of this paper is to investigate how stock characteristics influence investor trading behavior and psychological pitfalls.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate how stock characteristics influence investor trading behavior and psychological pitfalls.
Design/methodology/approach
This study employs the methods of Solt and Statman (1989) and Kumar (2009) to examine investor trading activities.
Findings
Good companies do not usually have good stocks, while lottery-type stocks show better price performance than other stocks. Due to the representativeness and affect heuristics, the stocks of good companies are frequently transacted, while the low-priced stocks are infrequently transacted. Moreover, investors may display the gambler’s fallacy in the trade of stocks of good companies and the overconfidence and self-attribution bias in the trade of lottery-type stocks.
Research limitations/implications
Investors trading lottery-type stocks demonstrate greater maturity than those that trade stocks of good companies; however, psychological pitfalls still dominate investor trading behavior.
Practical implications
The representativeness heuristic of “stocks of good companies are good stocks” results in the inclusion of stocks of good companies in a portfolio and poorer price performance, whereas the inclusion of lottery-type stocks in a portfolio brings higher returns within a short period of time.
Originality/value
Compared to earlier studies that focussed on the price performance of stocks of good companies and investor trading behavior in relation to lottery-type stocks, this study aims to investigate the influence of stock characteristics on price performance, trading activities, and psychological pitfalls.
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The causes for the formation of a bubble in the collateral market when agents are provided with homogeneous expectations are explored. This bubbly dynamics will define a…
Abstract
Purpose
The causes for the formation of a bubble in the collateral market when agents are provided with homogeneous expectations are explored. This bubbly dynamics will define a sufficient condition for deleveraging.
Design/methodology/approach
Theoretical approach with neutral deleveraging.
Findings
Findings of the study are defined sufficient conditions for a behavioral rational bubble's formation in a market of collateral and the subsequent deleveraging. The crowd-in effect of the representative bubble is caused by errors in extrapolating information and thus by representativeness, while the crowd-out effect of deleveraging is set off by reverting to a rational heuristic.
Research limitations/implications
The limit is that it is a homogeneous expectations approach, the implication is that cannot be rational speculation.
Practical implications
Even in a simple model of homogeneous expectations a bubble may arise with serious effect on the demand side: models that detect just rational mispricings cannot account for behavioral components that have financial and real effects.
Originality/value
The paper defines how deleveraging may occur even in case of homogeneous expectations. The latter should not be seen just as a limit but also as a signal of the importance of being aware of behavioral components.
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Kuo‐Lun Hsiao, Hsi‐Peng Lu and Wan‐Chin Lan
The purpose of this study was to determine how storytelling blogs affect readers’ intention to adopt travel products.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study was to determine how storytelling blogs affect readers’ intention to adopt travel products.
Design/methodology/approach
The present study proposes a storytelling framework based on heuristic theory for examining the characteristics and key components of a story that can affect the reader’s potential future behavior. An empirical study involving 368 subjects was conducted to test this model.
Findings
The results indicated that the elements of storytelling blogs, “perceived aesthetics”, “narrative structure”, and “self‐reference”, can indirectly influence readers’ intention through empathy and attitude. In particular, “perceived aesthetics” had the strongest direct effect on attitude and total effect on intention. Nevertheless, the control variables, age, gender, and frequency of searching for information about travel online, did not influence the intention.
Practical implications
The proposed framework can be used by enterprises to develop storytelling blogs for marketing their products. Blog design needs to consider aesthetics, narrative structure, and relevance to readers.
Originality/value
The paper contributes to a deeper understanding of the influence of storytelling blogs from a heuristic perspective.
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This paper aims to address the importance of behavioural finance issues among real investors. It analyses whether private investors are susceptible to extrapolation bias and…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to address the importance of behavioural finance issues among real investors. It analyses whether private investors are susceptible to extrapolation bias and whether this bias affects market prices.
Design/methodology/approach
A qualitative coding of message board posts facilitates the construction of sentiment proxies. Using linear techniques, it is tested whether after-hours sentiment is positively predicted by daily share return and whether daily share return exhibits positive autocorrelation.
Findings
Private investors are impaired by extrapolation bias, while market prices remain unaffected. Probably, sophisticated professional investors benefit by offsetting the irrational private investor transactions.
Research limitations/implications
As the sample of German blue-chip banks is small and covers a period during the Eurozone crisis, the findings should be generalised with caution. Future research might use a different sample and explore whether non-crisis periods provide comparable results.
Practical implications
Investors should not take for granted the neoclassical assumption that all market participants always act rationally and according to self-interest.
Social implications
Irrespective of whether market prices are efficient, a level playing field between private and professional investors is necessary. Otherwise, confidence in the financial marketplace is not guaranteed and society may incur welfare losses.
Originality/value
The approach of extracting sentiment from a German share message board through qualitative content analysis (QCA) is unique for analysing extrapolation bias. This paper is valuable in drawing attention to the importance of rational investment behaviour among private investors.
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Anthony K. Hunt, Jia Wang, Amin Alizadeh and Maja Pucelj
This paper aims to provide an elucidative and explanatory overview of decision-making theory that human resource management and development (HR) researchers and practitioners can…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to provide an elucidative and explanatory overview of decision-making theory that human resource management and development (HR) researchers and practitioners can use to explore the impact of heuristics and biases on organizational decisions, particularly within HR contexts.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper draws upon three theoretical resources anchored in decision-making research: the theory of bounded rationality, the heuristics and biases program, and cognitive-experiential self-theory (CEST). A selective narrative review approach was adopted to identify, translate, and contextualize research findings that provide immense applicability, connection, and significance to the field and study of HR.
Findings
The authors extract key insights from the theoretical resources surveyed and illustrate the linkages between HR and decision-making research, presenting a theoretical framework to guide future research endeavors.
Practical implications
Decades of decision-making research have been distilled into a digestible and accessible framework that offers both theoretical and practical implications.
Originality/value
Heuristics are mental shortcuts that facilitate quick decisions by simplifying complexity and reducing effort needed to solve problems. Heuristic strategies can yield favorable outcomes, especially amid time and information constraints. However, heuristics can also introduce systematic judgment errors known as biases. Biases are pervasive within organizational settings and can lead to disastrous decisions. This paper provides HR scholars and professionals with a balanced, nuanced, and integrative framework to better understand heuristics and biases and explore their organizational impact. To that end, a forward-looking and direction-setting research agenda is presented.
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