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The quantitative assessment of the degree of risk associated with the direct acquisition of commercial property for investment purposes is practically non‐existent. There is almost always a total reliance on unquantified subjective feeling with no attempt to transform such a qualitative treatment into an analytically more acceptable and useful form. Whilst the investment capitalisation rate should, to an extent, reflect the investor's view of the future earnings capacity of a particular property, this yield rate is principally a function of general market sentiment and may not significantly allow for the inherent risk characteristics of an individual investment. This is especially the case at the prime end of the market where the pressure of funds competing to invest in a sector of particularly limited supply remains most severe.

The mathematics of property valuations commonly used in practice exist in several formulations which have been adopted over the years. All are similar in that they represent simple discounted cash flow models equating the estimated future earnings capacity of a property to a net present (capital) value. The process, whilst appearing somewhat daunting, is in fact accomplished in a manner such that, under normal circumstances, the estimated future cash flow beyond the next rent review is not explicitly expressed. Instead of generating a future income flow (assuming some rate of rental growth) and discounting at a money rate of interest (suitably adjusted for risk), the estimated rental income at the next review is capitalised at a relatively low investment yield rate which merely implies a future rental growth rate.

This study aims to review the approaches used in the analysis of rental income of residential property in Abuja, Nigeria, to strengthen the existing investment performance approaches initially relied upon by property investors towards having a better and reliable performance evaluation for property investment decision-making.

With the adoption of combined methodological approaches, quantitative data on rental history (2006–2016) were collected on the randomly selected residential investment properties (block of flats) available in the portfolio of estate surveying firms in the different locations/sub-markets of the study area. Data collected were analysed with the frequency mean and growth rate.

All the methodological approaches adopted for analysis displayed varying performance results. No particular sub-market maintains the same ranking position in any of the approaches. The developmental phases previously used as an indication of yield in the study area do not correspond with the status of rental income of sub-markets. Yield has been observed to be a mere attraction to property investment; it does not translate to income growth. Mean income (though a good indicator of changes in rental income) is not a reliable indicator of growth in income, and growth in the rate of income omitted the changes in rental income during the holding period.

The study was restricted to historical rental income data on a block of flat-type residential property, and it does not include capital value analysis or inquire into the factors responsible for variation in rental income during the study period. The outcome of this study is only applicable to a block of 4 number three-bedroom flats residential property type.

Multiple simple methods of analysing rental income performance should be preferred to the single complex method. This will simplify investors’ rental income characteristics of investment towards a better understanding of rental property investment analysis. That rental value appreciates with time does not translate to an increase in the actual rental income of residential investment property.

Through these performance approaches, ranking of the sampled properties in the study area sub-markets will enhance investors’ traditional diversification planning across the study area for an enhanced combination that can achieve latent profitability. The attention of investors is hereby called to these multiple approaches to enable them to merge their investment objectives with any or a combination of these approaches towards making rational investment decisions.

This seems to be the first advocacy for methodological paradigm shift applicable to direct residential property investment performance in Nigeria, using transaction rather than appraisal data.

Much has been written about probabilistic methods of risk analysis and about the probability distributions required for its use. This paper demonstrates a method known as the probability of acceptance error approach using simple scenarios in which the only variable tested by a probability distribution is rental growth but in which other variables such as discount rate, capitalisation rate and holding period are also tested. In particular, the sensitivity of the probability distribution chosen for the rental growth values is discussed where both the rental growth values themselves and the probability distributions are normally distributed and also where they have a skewed distribution. It is shown that for current market projections for rental growth great accuracy in the selection of a probability distribution is not required. It is also shown that assumptions about independence or serial correlation of cash flows may be similarly treated and that the probability of acceptance error may be described as a range having independence and serial correlation as the two extremes. The range usually turns out to be fairly narrow. The most sensitive item in the calculations is, as expected, the discount rate. The above findings are demonstrated in a series of appendices.

Short-term rental option enabled via accommodation sharing platforms is an attractive alternative to conventional long-term rental. The purpose of this study is to compare rental strategies (short-term vs long-term) and explore the main determinants for strategy selection.

Using logistic regression, this study predicts the rental strategy with the highest rate of return for a given property in the City of Philadelphia. The modeling result is then compared with the applied machine learning methods, including random forest, k-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, naïve Bayes and neural networks. The best model is finally selected based on different performance metrics that determine the prediction strength of underlying models.

By analyzing 2,163 properties, the results show that properties with more bedrooms, closer to the historic attractions, in neighborhoods with lower minority rates and higher nightlife vibe are more likely to have a higher return if they are rented out through short-term rental contract. Additionally, the property location is found out to have a significant impact on the selection of the rental strategy, which emphasizes the widely known term of “location, location, location” in the real estate market.

The findings of this study contribute to the literature by determining the neighborhood and property characteristics that make a property more suitable for the short-term rental vs the long-term one. This contribution is extremely important as it facilitates differentiating the short-term rentals from the long-term rentals and would help better understanding the supply-side in the sharing economy-based accommodation market.

In the 1970s, yields on UK commercial investment property appear to have been influenced principally by the cost of long term capital and the rate of rental growth. Consequently, yields tended to respond to the economic cycle, falling in times of economic recovery and rising when the economy moved into recession. However, in the 1980s so far, yield trends appear anomalous by comparison. Yields failed to rise on the advent of the recession in 1980–81, despite a sharp rise in the cost of capital, yet rose in 1982 just when the economy began to emerge from recession, and have since continued to rise as economic recovery and rental growth have gathered pace. This paper seeks to explain recent movements in investment property yields and to reconcile these with trends in the 1970s. It concludes that the behaviour of yields in the 1980s can be explained by the dominance of institutional investors in the property market, and by their perception of the changing risk attributes of property (compared with alternative investments) which have resulted from changes taking place in the investment markets and the UK economy.

In a previous paper Sykes derived a mathematically consistent investment valuation model for freehold properties which he referred to as the Rational Model. This new model overcomes certain serious failings of other methods commonly in use. The present paper readdresses the arguments of the earlier paper in a manner rather more familiar to a practising valuer and compares current methods of valuation with the Rational Model. It is also shown that the Rational Model can be simply adapted for the valuation of leasehold interests without resorting to a separate (and usually quite artificial) ‘sinking fund’ rate.

Major financial lease contracts are commonly written on a variable interest rate basis. The conditions of this sort of lease include an interest rate variation clause which provides for adjustments to be made to the rentals when interest rates change. Such adjustments are usually made periodically by applying the change in the interest rate (from the rate at the beginning of the lease) to the amount of the lessor's investment in the lease.

Reviews recent New Zealand legal cases involving CBD office building leasing incentives, the efficacy of confidentiality agreements and current practical valuation problems arising when analysing office rentals. Takes a controversial stand in postulating that customary methods of decapitalizing incentives in use by the valuation profession lead to errors in calculating effective rentals. Suggests a new break‐even method to analyse lease incentives. Presents a “user‐friendly” step‐by‐step spread‐sheet goal‐seeking model to undertake the complex calculations required. The model shows graphically the explicit rental forecasts required and the resulting effective analysis alongside the results of applying customary methods. Aims to bring some balance to this area of current valuation controversy and to provide a powerful new tool to analyse accurately incentive‐induced office, retail or industrial rentals.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the securitization of rental streams, a new investment and finance product introduced in the USA in 2013 that enables fundraising from large residential portfolios owned by major investment funds and investment banking. The securities are made up of non-performance loans as well as real estate portfolios of financial entities.

An academic analysis of the European securitization market is performed, as well as a broad overview of the state of the art of the rental housing market and investment property market. Moreover, a market study of Real Estate Owned (hereinafter, REOs) and Real Estate Debts is carried out to determine both the present framework and future trends. Various financial entities and real estate management companies are examined through interviews and data collection to assess the reality of distressed assets and residential portfolios owned by major investors. It introduced the Broker’s Price Opinion concept, de loan-to-value concept and the London Interbank Offered Rate.

REO-to-rental securitization is a step forward toward the democratization of finance through the globalization of the residential market, improving risk sharing for major and retail investors. The securitization of rental streams in Europe has not taken off, despite several issuances in the USA since 2013 with significant success where first tranches obtained a credit qualification of triple-A from the majority of the main rating agencies.

At the end of 2013, a global investment firm launched an innovative finance and investment vehicle that securitized the cash flows originating from leased residential properties. That issue resulted in considerable success and in the development of a new alternative and innovative financing source for real estate activity. Taking into account that housing is a primary need of our society, there is a strong motivation for improving the residential market, and thus, REO-to-rental securitization could help take a step forward in making the housing market more efficient.