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The market value of any property investment will tend to deteriorate over time when compared to similar modern properties if monies are not periodically expended to mitigate the effects of obsolescence. This paper examines the relationship between the initial yield of a property at purchase and the rate of future rental value growth necessary to achieve a criterion rate of return on the investment. Traditionally in calculations of the future rental growth rate required to justify an initial investment yield (when compared, say, to the rental shown by gilt‐edged stocks) the simplistic view is taken that following purchase no further expenditure is anticipated. However, if a property is to maintain its original market appeal (or adapt to evolving circumstances), capital must from time‐to‐time be injected for the purposes of refurbishment. Thus, any analytical model which ignores this inevitable expenditure, but nevertheless assumes a constant rate of long‐term future rental growth, is quite unrealistic. A Refurbishment‐Rental Growth Model is derived which allows the introduction of regular future capital expenditure both in terms of magnitude and frequency. Various examples are illustrated of the effect which such expenditure may have in necessarily increasing the required future rental growth for a property investment in order to achieve an anticipated level of return.
In the 1970s, yields on UK commercial investment property appear to have been influenced principally by the cost of long term capital and the rate of rental growth. Consequently, yields tended to respond to the economic cycle, falling in times of economic recovery and rising when the economy moved into recession. However, in the 1980s so far, yield trends appear anomalous by comparison. Yields failed to rise on the advent of the recession in 1980–81, despite a sharp rise in the cost of capital, yet rose in 1982 just when the economy began to emerge from recession, and have since continued to rise as economic recovery and rental growth have gathered pace. This paper seeks to explain recent movements in investment property yields and to reconcile these with trends in the 1970s. It concludes that the behaviour of yields in the 1980s can be explained by the dominance of institutional investors in the property market, and by their perception of the changing risk attributes of property (compared with alternative investments) which have resulted from changes taking place in the investment markets and the UK economy.
The paper addresses the practical problems which emerge when attempting to apply longitudinal approaches to the assessment of property depreciation using valuation‐based…
The paper addresses the practical problems which emerge when attempting to apply longitudinal approaches to the assessment of property depreciation using valuation‐based data. These problems relate to inconsistent valuation regimes and the difficulties in finding appropriate benchmarks.
The paper adopts a case study of seven major office locations around Europe and attempts to determine ten‐year rental value depreciation rates based on a longitudinal approach using IPD, CBRE and BNP Paribas datasets.
The depreciation rates range from a 5 per cent PA depreciation rate in Frankfurt to a 2 per cent appreciation rate in Stockholm. The results are discussed in the context of the difficulties in applying this method with inconsistent data.
The paper has methodological implications for measuring property investment depreciation and provides an example of the problems in adopting theoretically sound approaches with inconsistent information.
Valuations play an important role in performance measurement and cross border investment decision making and, therefore, knowledge of inconsistency of valuation practice aids decision making and informs any application of valuation‐based data in the attainment of depreciation rates.
The paper provides new insights into the use of property market valuation data in a cross‐border context, insights that previously had been anecdotal and unproven in nature.
The retention rate of a company has an impact on its earnings and dividend growth. Corporate management has control over this. However, lease structures in some real…
The retention rate of a company has an impact on its earnings and dividend growth. Corporate management has control over this. However, lease structures in some real estate markets reduce the control of investment managers and force them to adopt full distribution policies and a passive management style. This is likely to impact the rental performance of the real estate by permitting depreciation to go uncorrected. This paper examines several European office markets across which lease structures and retention rates vary. It then compares depreciation rates across these markets. It is concluded that there is evidence of a relationship between retention and depreciation. Markets with particularly inflexible lease structures clearly exhibit low retention rates, and we can tentatively suggest higher levels of rental value depreciation. This poses interesting questions concerning the relationships between lease structures in different markets and their impact on expenditure by owners, and also concerning the impact on building depreciation and property performance. While longer and deeper datasets are necessary to establish direct linkages between lease structures and performance, this paper raises important issues for global investors.
The mathematics of property valuations commonly used in practice exist in several formulations which have been adopted over the years. All are similar in that they represent simple discounted cash flow models equating the estimated future earnings capacity of a property to a net present (capital) value. The process, whilst appearing somewhat daunting, is in fact accomplished in a manner such that, under normal circumstances, the estimated future cash flow beyond the next rent review is not explicitly expressed. Instead of generating a future income flow (assuming some rate of rental growth) and discounting at a money rate of interest (suitably adjusted for risk), the estimated rental income at the next review is capitalised at a relatively low investment yield rate which merely implies a future rental growth rate.
The quantitative assessment of the degree of risk associated with the direct acquisition of commercial property for investment purposes is practically non‐existent. There is almost always a total reliance on unquantified subjective feeling with no attempt to transform such a qualitative treatment into an analytically more acceptable and useful form. Whilst the investment capitalisation rate should, to an extent, reflect the investor's view of the future earnings capacity of a particular property, this yield rate is principally a function of general market sentiment and may not significantly allow for the inherent risk characteristics of an individual investment. This is especially the case at the prime end of the market where the pressure of funds competing to invest in a sector of particularly limited supply remains most severe.
Looks at the philosophy of valuation, explaining the distinction between “worth” and “price”. Attempts to explain traditional techniques of assessing price. Looks at the…
Looks at the philosophy of valuation, explaining the distinction between “worth” and “price”. Attempts to explain traditional techniques of assessing price. Looks at the development of discounted cash flow and its applications in valuations and calculations of worth. Concludes that there must be more openness with clients about valuation risks and issues so that they can make informed judgements.
This paper analyses the choice of the optimal lease term of office property in relation to expected lag vacancy, periods of rent‐free and expected rental income growth…
This paper analyses the choice of the optimal lease term of office property in relation to expected lag vacancy, periods of rent‐free and expected rental income growth. The optimal lease term is the one that minimizes the expected costs of contract negotiation from the perspective of landlords. Specifically, it presents an analysis of how to estimate effective rents based on the lease term, expected lag vacancy and rent‐free periods. This study shows that the optimal lease term tends to increase under the following conditions: when the expected rate of rental growth decreases, the discount rate increases, or the expected lag vacancy increases. A longer contract duration is less costly when future rentals are discounted at a higher rate. Altering the lease length will change the risks taken by the landlord. Thus, contract length can be used as a device for insuring vacancy risk. Moreover, we find that the optimal lease length is more sensitive to the lag vacancy when the discount rate is at a relatively high level.
The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, the authors construct a country-specific time-varying private rental regulation index for 18 developed economies starting from…
The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, the authors construct a country-specific time-varying private rental regulation index for 18 developed economies starting from 1973 to 2014. Second, the authors analyze the effects of their index on the housing rental markets across 18 countries and states.
The authors’ index not only covers 18 developed economies over 42 years but also combines both tenure security and rent laws. The authors’ empirical framework is that of panel regressions with time and country fixed effects.
The authors’ index sheds further insights on the extent to which rent and tenure security laws have converged over the past 40 years for each economy. Moreover, the authors show three empirical results. First, stringent rent control regimes do lead to lower real rent growth rates than regimes with free rents. Second, soft rent control regimes with time-limited tenure security and minimum duration periods, however, may cause higher rent growth rates than free rent regimes. Third, rent-free regimes do not show significant high real rent appreciation rates.
The authors’ rental regulation index is the first time-varying index that covers more than 18 economies over 40 years.
This paper models the lessee's default options and estimates the economic value of the options for a lessee using a discrete time binomial American option pricing model…
This paper models the lessee's default options and estimates the economic value of the options for a lessee using a discrete time binomial American option pricing model. Results show a positive relationship of the option premium with the original rent and a negative relationship with the relocation costs. Finds that the default probability is higher for lessees who are more sensitive to rental changes and place less emphasis on the fitting‐out quality. Suggests that rental volatility and rental growth rate are two significant factors that have positive relationships with the default option values. The risk‐free rate, on the other hand, has an inverse relationship with the default option values because a higher risk‐free interest rate reduces the present value of rental savings. Lease term length to expiration has a positive effect on the default option value, implying that the default option premium will decay as the term to expiry is shortened.