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The purpose of this study is to propose the time series decomposition approach to analyze and predict the failure data of the repairable systems.

This study employs NHPP to model the failure data. Initially, Nelson's graph method is employed to estimate the mean number of repairs and the MCRF value for the repairable system. Second, the time series decomposition approach is employed to predict the mean number of repairs and MCRF values.

The proposed method can analyze and predict the reliability for repairable systems. It can analyze the combined effect of trend‐cycle components and the seasonal component of the failure data.

This study only adopts simulated data to verify the proposed method. Future research may use other real products' failure data to verify the proposed method. The proposed method is superior to ARIMA and neural network model prediction techniques in the reliability of repairable systems.

Results in this study can provide a valuable reference for engineers when constructing quality feedback systems for assessing current quality conditions, providing logistical support, correcting product design, facilitating optimal component‐replacement and maintenance strategies, and ensuring that products meet quality requirements.

The time series decomposition approach was used to model and analyze software aging and software failure in 2007. However, the time series decomposition approach was rarely used for modeling and analyzing the failure data for repairable systems. This study proposes the time series decomposition approach to analyze and predict the failure data of the repairable systems and the proposed method is better than the ARIMA model and neural networks in predictive accuracy.

Analyzing and forecasting reliability is increasingly important for enterprises. An accurate product reliability forecasting model cannot only learn and track a product's reliability and operational performance, but can also offer useful information that allows managers to take follow‐up actions to improve the product's quality and cost. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) model is already extensively used to analyze and forecast time series data. However, the GARCH model has not been used to analyze and forecast the failure data of repairable systems. Based on these concerns, this study proposes the GARCH model to analyze and forecast the field failure data of repairable systems.

This paper proposes the GARCH model to analyze and forecast the field failure data of repairable systems. Empirical results from electronic systems designed and manufactured by suppliers of the Chrysler Corporation are presented and discussed.

The proposed method can analyze and forecast failure data for repairable systems. Not only can this method analyze failure data volatility, it can also forecast the future failure data of repairable systems.

Advanced progress in the field of reliability prediction estimation can benefit engineers or management authorities by providing important decision support tools in which the prediction accuracy suggests financial and business outcomes as well as other outcome application results.

The purpose of this paper is to propose an accurate product reliability prediction model in order to enhance product quality and reduce product costs.

This study proposes a new method for predicting the reliability of repairable systems. The novel method employed constructs a predictive model by integrating neural networks and genetic algorithms. Findings – The novel method employed constructs a predictive model by integrating neural networks and genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms are used to globally optimize the number of neurons in the hidden layer, the learning rate and momentum of neural network architecture. Research limitations/implications – This study only adopts real failure data from an electronic system to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. Future research may use other product's failure data to verify the proposed method. The proposed method is superior to ARIMA and neural network model prediction techniques in the reliability of repairable systems. Practical implications – Based on the more accurate analytical results achieved by the proposed method, engineers or management authorities can take follow‐up actions to ensure that products meet quality requirements, provide logistical support and correct product design. Originality/value – The proposed method is superior to other prediction techniques in predicting the reliability of repairable systems.

The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the application of various models to estimate the reliability in railway repairable systems.

The methodology proposed by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), using homogeneous Poisson process (HPP) and non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) models, is adopted. Additionally, renewal process (RP) models, not covered by the IEC, are used, with a complementary analysis to characterize the failure intensity thereby obtained.

The findings show the impact of the recurrent failures in the times between failures (TBF) for rejection of the HPP and NHPP models. For systems not exhibiting a trend, RP models are presented, with TBF described by three-parameter lognormal or generalized logistic distributions, together with a methodology for generating clusters.

For those systems that do not exhibit a trend, TBF is assumed to be independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.), and therefore, RP models of “perfect repair” have to be used.

Maintenance managers must refocus their efforts to study the reliability of individual repairable systems and their recurrent failures, instead of collections, in order to customize maintenance to the needs of each system.

The stochastic process models were applied for the first time to electric traction systems in 23 trains and to 40 escalators with ten years of operating data in a railway company. A practical application of the IEC models is presented for the first time.

The purpose of this article is to present a new split system model (SSM) that predicts the reliability of complex systems with multiple preventive maintenance (PM) actions in the long term.

The SSM was developed using probability theory based on the concept of separating repaired and unrepaired components within a system virtually when modelling the reliability of the system after repairs. After theoretical analysis, a case study and Monte Carlo simulation were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the newly developed model.

The model can be used to determine the remaining life of systems, to show the changes in reliability with PM actions, and to quantify PM intervals after imperfect repairs.

SSM can be used to predict the reliability of complex systems with multiple PM actions, and hence can be used to support asset PM decision making over the whole life of the asset, such as scheduled PM times and spare parts requirements. An asset often has some vulnerable components, i.e. where the lives of these components are much shorter than the rest of the asset. In this case, PM is often conducted on these vulnerable components for maximising the useful life of the asset. The specific formulae derived in this paper can be used to predict the reliability of the asset for this scenario.

The proposed model uses a new concept of split systems to predict the changes of reliability of complex systems with multiple PM actions. Asset managers will find this model to be a useful tool in the optimisation of their asset PM strategies.

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a tactical approach to cope with the issues related to low availability of repairable machines or systems because of their poor reliability and maintainability. It not only explores the significance of availability, but also embarks upon a step-by-step procedure to earmark a relevant replenishment plan to check the mean time between failure (MTBF) and the mean time to repair (MTTR) efficiently.

The literature review identifies the extent to which availability depends on reliability and maintainability, and highlights the diversified challenges appearing among repairable systems. Different improvement initiatives have been suggested to avoid downtime, after analyzing the failure and repair time data graphically. Relevant plots and growth curves captured the historical deviations and trends along with the time, which further helps to create more robust action plans to enrich the respective reliability and maintainability of machines. During the case study, the proposed methodology has been tested on four SPMs and successfully validated the claims after achieving around a 98 percent availability at the end.

Graphical analysis is the key to developing suitable action plans to enhance the corresponding reliability and maintainability of a machine or system. By increasing the MTBF, the reliability level can be improved and similarly quick maintenance activities can help to restore the prospect of maintainability. Both of these actions ultimately reduce the downtime or increase the associated availability exponentially.

The work revolves around the availability of SPMs. Moreover, SPMs have been divided only into series sub-systems. The testability and supportability aspects have not been considered thoroughly during the fabrication of the approach.

The work focusses on the availability of systems and proposed frameworks that helps to reduce downtime or its associated expenditure, which is generally being ignored. As a case study-based work especially on SPMs in the auto sector this paper is quite rare and will motivate affiliated engineers and practitioners to achieve future breakthroughs.

Points out certain ambiguities in the usage of some reliability parameters in their application to repairable systems and presents a digital simulation model for analysing their reliability. The proposed model is useful for assessing intended changes in systems design or improvements in operational and maintenance procedures on system reliability. Outlines different steps of a computational algorithm for solving the proposed model. Describes an illustrative application of the proposed model to a fleet of trainer aircraft.

The purpose of this paper is to provide the maintenance personnel with a methodology for modeling and estimating the reliability of critical machine systems using the historical data of their inter‐failure times.

The failure patterns of five different machine systems were modeled with NHPP‐log linear process and HPP belonging to stochastic point process for predicting their reliability in future time frames. Besides the classical approach, Bayesian approach was also used involving Jeffreys's invariant non‐informative independent priors to derive the posterior densities of the model parameters of NHPP‐LLP and HPP with a view to estimating the reliability of the machine systems in future time intervals.

For at least three machine systems, Bayesian approach gave lower reliability estimates and a larger number of (expected) failures than those obtained by the classical approach. Again, Bayesian estimates of the probability that “ROCOF (rate of occurrence of failures) would exceed its upper threshold limit” in future time frames were uniformly higher for these machine systems than those obtained with the classical approach.

This study indicated that, the Bayesian approach would give more realistic estimates of reliability (in future time frames) of the machine systems, which had dependent inter‐failure times. Such information would be helpful to the maintenance team for deciding on appropriate maintenance strategy.

With the help of Bayesian approach, the posterior densities of the model parameters were found analytically by considering Jeffreys's invariant non‐informative independent prior. The case study would serve to motivate the maintenance teams to model the failure patterns of the repairable systems making use of the historical data on inter‐failure times and estimating their reliability in future time frames.

Considers trend testing in the context of reliability/survival applications. Suggests that the very common tendency in reliability testing to fit lifetime distributions to reliability/maintenance data might occasionally be invalid. Details the appropriate methods to assess the validity, or otherwise, of such a procedure. More specifically, discusses ROCOF curves and the Laplace test for trend, and demonstrates their use by means of a practical, reliability example.

To propose an accurate product reliability prediction model in order to enhance product quality and reduce product costs.

This study proposes a method for analysing and forecasting field failure data for repairable systems. The novel method constructs a predictive model by combining the seasonal autoregressive integrated‐moving average (SARIMA) method and neural network model.

Current methods for analysing and forecasting field failure data for repairable systems do not consider the seasonal effect in the data. The proposed method can not only analyse the trends and seasonal vibration of the data, but can also forecast the short‐ and long‐term reliability of the system based on only a small amount of historical data.

This study adopts only real failure data from an electronic system to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. Future research may use other product's failure data to verify the proposed method.

Results in this study can provide a valuable reference for engineers when constructing quality feedback systems for assessing current quality conditions, providing logistical support, correcting product design, facilitating optimal component‐replacement and maintenance strategies, and ensuring that products meet quality requirements.

The proposed method is superior to other prediction techniques in predicting future real failure data.