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Regression discontinuity (RD) design is a sophisticated quasi-experimental approach used for inferring causal relationships and estimating treatment effects. This paper aims to educate human resource development (HRD) researchers and practitioners on the implementation of RD design as an ethical alternative for making causal claims about training interventions.

To demonstrate the key features of RD designs, a simulated data set was generated from actual pre-test and post-test diversity training scores of 276 participants from three organizations in the USA. Parametric and non-parametric analyses were conducted, and graphical presentations were produced.

This study found that RD design can be used for evaluating training interventions. The results of the simulated data set yielded statistically significant results for the treatment effects, showing a positive causal effect of the training intervention. The analyses found support for the use of RD models with retrospective training intervention data, eliminating ethical concerns from random group assignment. The results of the non-parametric model provided evidence of the plausibility of finding the right balance between precision of estimates and generalizable results, making it an alternative to experimental designs.

This study contributes to the HRD field by explicating the implementation of a sophisticated, statistical tool to strengthen causal claims, contributing to an evidence-based HRD approach to practice and providing the R syntax for replicating the analyses contained herein.

Despite the growing number of scholarly articles being published in HRD journals, very few have used experimental or quasi-experimental design approaches. Therefore, a very limited amount of research has been devoted to uncovering causal relationships.

The purpose of this study is to regard winter heating as a quasi-natural experiment to identify the possible causal effects of winter heating on population mobility. However, there are scant research studies examining the effect of atmospheric quality on population mobility. There also exists some relevant research studies on the relationship between population mobility and environmental degradation (Lu et al., 2018; Reis et al., 2018; Shen et al., 2018), and these studies exist still some deficiencies.

The notorious atmospheric quality problems caused by coal-fired heating in winter of northern China have an aroused widespread concern. However, the quantitative study on the effects on population mobility of winter heating is still rare. In this study, the authors regard the winter heating as a quasi-natural experiment, based on the of daily panel data of 58 cities of Tencent location Big Data in China from August 13 to December 30 in 2016 and August 16 to December 30 in 2017, and examine the impacts of winter heating on population mobility by utilizing a regression discontinuity method.

The findings are as follows, in general, winter heating significantly aggravates regional population mobility, but the impacts on population mobility among different cities are heterogeneous. Specifically, the effects of winter heating on population mobility is greater for cities with relatively good air quality, and the effects is also more obvious for big and medium-sized cities than that in small cities. In addition, different robustness tests, including continuity test, different bandwidth tests and alternative empirical model, are adopted to ensure the reliability of the conclusion. Finally, the authors put forward corresponding policy suggestions from the three dimensions of government, enterprises and residents.

First, regarding winter heating as a quasi-natural experiment, a regression discontinuity design method is introduced to investigate the relationship between winter heating and population mobility, which is helpful to avoid the estimation error caused by endogeneity. Second, the authors use the passenger travel “big data” based on the website of Tencent Location Big Data, which can effectively capture the daily characteristics of China's population mobility. Third, this study discusses the population mobility from the perspective of winter heating and researches population mobility before and after winter heating, which is helpful in enriching the research on population mobility.

The purpose of this paper is to isolate and evaluate the causal effect of the changes in eligibility criteria on labor force participation (LFP) and exit to retirement of the cohorts affected by the reform that canceled most of the early pensions in Poland in 2009. At the individual level the reform created a huge discontinuity in treatment of different generations.

The authors rely on Polish Labor Force Survey and employ regression discontinuity design to evaluate the change in participation subsequent to the eligibility reform among the treated cohorts.

The authors find a statistically significant, but economically small discontinuity at the timing of the reform. The placebo test shows no similar effects in earlier or later quarters. Yet, the pure treatment effects are insignificant in vast majority of the specifications.

There are some limitations of the data used in the research. It does not cover total population and some panel attrition can be expected. Authors also needed to cope with the lack of required details in survey questions. The main limitation of the method lies in the measurement of the immediate (short-term) effects while in many cases people require more time that 1–2 quarters for the decision after policy change.

The reduction of outflows to retirement was much less pronounced than could have been expected, largely due to already relatively lower propensity to retire early.

There are two main policy implications of the study. First, constraining the pension eligibility criteria for retirement are frequently opposed by social actors. It is often considered that early retirement is a privilege – awarded on a basis of occupation or even simply employment in an industry. In many countries – e.g. France, Italy, Germany – attempts to make the eligibility criteria more strict resulted in general strikes and Poland was no exception from this rule. If treatment effects of the large and radical eligibility reform are small in participation rates and pension take-up rates, then immediate fiscal effects are bound to be small as well, even if in the desirable direction. This may explain why – given the strong social resistance – in many countries eligibility reforms are delayed or narrowed in scope. Second, the economic rationale for strong social resistance to eligibility reforms builds on assuming either a relatively high valuation of leisure time after exiting the labor market or a relatively high subjective valuation of the unemployment risk after passing the early retirement age threshold. If leisure preference is overstated, reducing eligibility may be opposed as such, but eligibility alone is irrelevant for household decision making. Meanwhile, unemployment risk may be mitigated via alternative instruments, such as employment protection legislation, as is the case in Poland. Depending on a specific composition of the two factors in a given country, the effects of the eligibility reforms may be as high as in Switzerland or as low as in Poland.

First, the authors provide an analysis of discontinuities in transitions from activity to retirement, rather than focusing on the labor market status. The panel dimension of the data permits to observe directly the flows into retirement/inactivity, controlling for age and birth cohort. Second, the authors complement a pure discontinuity in cohort analysis with a fuzzy design, because in addition to age eligibility the authors also analyze the effects of changes in occupational eligibility. Third, the authors provide a benchmark for the estimates in the actual quarter of the reform by a series of placebo and conditional specifications. This allows to evaluate the (immediate) size and heterogeneity of the treatment effects. The authors find small effects of age eligibility reduction and effectively no effects of occupational eligibility. Hence, increased LFP of the elderly, observed even prior to the reform, seems to be driven by factors unrelated to early pension eligibility.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of school attendance on learning and child labour in Ghana.

The paper uses a nationally representative sample of household and individual data in 2005/06 and 2011/12 for the analysis. Regression discontinuity, the capitation grant in 2005 as exogenous, is used to estimate the impact of school attendance on child labour and learning outcomes.

The study found that children who were exposed to the capitation grant spent more hours in school and were more likely to enrol in primary school. School attendance was found to increase the likelihood to read and write a standardised test in English. Also, the improvement in children’s school attendance was found to enhance the likelihood of performing a written calculation. The authors could not find any evidence that school attendance affected child labour.

This research is the first causality analysis in sub-Saharan Africa that uses a nationally representative dataset to study the impact of school attendance on child labour and learning outcomes using a regression discontinuity estimator to deal with endogeneity issues.

Unemployment can negatively affect individuals, their families and communities in various ways. When individuals are out of work may experience mental and physical health problems, material deprivation and poverty. This study aims to examine the impact of unemployment benefits on health and living standards in Turkey.

The authors employ a structural equation modelling (SEM) to consider the simultaneous relationships among the unemployment benefits and the latent variables of health and Standard of Living (SoL). We propose a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design (FRDD) and a Regression Kink Design (RKD) within the SEM framework to infer causality. For the empirical analysis, the authors employ the panel Income and Living Conditions Survey (ILCS) in 2007–2015.

The authors’ findings suggest that those who receive these benefits are more likely to report higher levels of health and improve their living standards compared to the non-recipients. Furthermore, unemployment benefits replacement rates are associated with improved levels in health and living standards. The authors’ results indicate a substantial heterogeneity on the impact of unemployment benefits since males, low educated individuals and those belonging to the lower levels of income are affected more in terms of their health status and living standards.

The majority of earlier studies have focused on the impact of unemployment benefits on labor outcomes. The originality of this study is that we implement the FRDD and RKD within the SEM framework to explore, simultaneously, the impact of unemployment insurance on health and living standards. Moreover, future research studies can implement this framework to infer causality and explore the impact of related policies and reforms.

Using a regression discontinuity design in tandem with a difference-in-discontinuities analysis, the study finds that increasing the minimum wage reduces the employment probability of young males by 2.5–3.1 percentage points.

The authors exploit an age-specific minimum wage rule – which sets a lower minimum wage for workers of age 15 than the adult minimum wage paid to workers of age 16 and above – and its abolition to estimate the causal effect of a minimum wage increase on youth employment and education in Turkey.

The authors also document that, initially, the minimum wage increase does not lead to a major change in high school enrollment, while the likelihood of transitioning into “neither in employment nor in education and training” (NEET) category notably increases. However, in the medium term, the NEET effect is transitory; school enrollment increases over time and absorbs the negative employment effect.

The authors argue that policy effects have mostly been driven by demand-side forces rather than the supply side.

This study aims to analyse the effect of gun-related violence on housing values, controlling for the area's crime levels and locational factors. Previous studies that aimed to find a causal connection between crime and housing values used instrument variables to solve the endogeneity problem. Here, the authors have instead been able to take advantage of the fact that shootings have occurred in random time and space. This has made it possible to estimate models to create windows around the shooting (event) and to estimate the causal effects of the shootings. Thus, the authors aim to contribute to the regression discontinuity design method in this context to estimate the short-term effects.

Using the regression discontinuity design method, the authors can estimate the short-term effects of shootings.

Findings from the analysis indicate that shootings directly affect those who are impacted by shootings and indirectly affect the environments where shootings occur. The indirect effect of shootings is momentary as it is capitalised directly in housing values in the immediate area. The effect also appears to be relatively long-term and persistent as housing values have not returned to the price level before the shooting 100–200 days after the shooting. The capitalisation effect is higher the closer one gets to the central parts of the city. On the other hand, the capitalisation effect is not higher or lower in areas with a higher crime rate per capita.

The article contributes to the previous literature in several ways. First and foremost, it provides an explicit analysis of shootings in built-up areas and their hypothesised effect on property prices through the impact on attractiveness and perceived safety. As far as the authors know, no study has analysed this issue on the international level or in Sweden. In this way, the authors aim to develop a study that can provide critical knowledge about one of the adverse effects of shootings. The authors also contribute to the literature by utilising unique data material, which allows the authors to merge information from the police about the exact location of shootings in the Stockholm area with data on sales of apartments in the same residential areas. In addition to the exact location of the shootings (coordinates), the authors also have access to data about whether the shootings led to injuries or deaths. Thus, the authors have separated the effect of shootings and fatal shootings, which has not been done before. Finally, the authors set out to highlight the results as a contribution to the debate on shootings.

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of two policies (an extension of the waiting period before entitlement to unemployment insurance (UI) and an intensification of counselling) targeted at unemployed school-leavers in Belgium on unemployment duration and on the quality of work.

The length of both policies is sharply determined by two distinct age thresholds. These thresholds are exploited to estimate the impact within a regression discontinuity design using a large administrative data set of all recent labour market entrants.

The longer waiting period does not significantly impact job finding while the Youth Work Plan does increase the job-finding rate eight months after the onset of the programme. The accepted wage is unaffected, but both policies lower the number of working days resulting in lower earnings. This effect is especially prevalent for youth from low-income households.

For both policies, participation was delineated by an age cut-off which was only four months apart. This sizeably reduced the width of the age window to detect a corresponding discontinuity in behaviour and hereby also the statistical power of the estimator. Additionally, due to confounding policies the estimated effects are local treatment effects for highly educated youth around the age cut-offs.

The findings suggest that threatening with a sanction is not the right instrument to activate highly educated unemployed school-leavers. While supportive measures appear to be more effective, this may be partly a consequence of acceptance of lower quality jobs due to liquidity constraints and of caseworkers giving misleading advice that temporary jobs are stepping stones to long-term employment.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to estimate the impact of changing the waiting period in UI. The paper adds to the existing literature on the effects of counselling and UI design on employment and job quality.

With an increasing number of Chinese private firms establishing primary level CPC Party committees, it is important to study the role of Party organizations in these firms. Using a nationwide survey of private firms in 2006, we empirically study the firm-level CCP committee's effect on workers' benefits and firm performance.

To overcome the potential endogeneity, we employ the regression discontinuity approach by utilizing the following rule from the Constitution of the CCP: Primary party committees should be established in any basic work unit with more than 3 full party members.

Our empirical results show that party committees in private firms have positive and statistically significant effects on many types of workers' benefits, including pension, unemployment insurance and workplace safety.

This paper highlights CCP committees as an important alternative mechanism in coordinating labor relationships in China when formal labor protecting institutions are weak.

The purpose of this paper is to present evidences on the spillover effects of a cash transfer addressed to poor elders in Brazil.

Using the Brazilian National Households Survey (PNAD) the authors assess the effects of an income transfer to the elders on household composition and the labor supply of elders and co-residing relatives, under a regression discontinuity design.

The authors do not find strong evidences of changes in the household composition due to the program. However the authors found reductions in the elders’ labor force participation, indicating that the program allow elders to retire. Moreover, the transfer yields a decrease in the labor force participation of co-residents, depending on their age. The authors also observe decreases in child labor.

Along with the cash comes context-dependent effects, showing there are many latent aspects of these transfers yet to be uncovered.