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1 – 10 of over 1000Ian Seymour Yeoman, Heike A. Schänzel and Elisa Zentveld
The COVID-19 pandemic is considered a “once in a century” public health shock that, at the time of writing, continues to have a profound impact on global tourism and New Zealand…
Abstract
Purpose
The COVID-19 pandemic is considered a “once in a century” public health shock that, at the time of writing, continues to have a profound impact on global tourism and New Zealand. The paper aims to assess how consumer behaviour trends changed using a trends analysis framework.
Design/methodology/approach
Positioning the paper in the prognosis–prediction paradigm from futures studies and using a trend analysis approach, the authors forecasted a series of tourist trends at the beginning of COVID-19 based upon a multitude of sources trends. Then, 12 months later, they reported on the accuracy of these forecasts.
Findings
The matrix identifies 15 trends based upon consumer behaviour changes, which are either dominant, slowed, advanced or arrested. The prognosis was largely correct, which was supported by evidence gathered 12 months later.
Research limitations/implications
The paper uses a series of different data sources to reflect on the initial forecasts. To some, this may be an issue of rigor, but the authors argue that through triangulation, credibility and validity are increased.
Originality/value
First, the evaluation matrix allows users to make sense of COVID-19 based upon the concepts of dominant, slowed, advanced or arrested trends. Second, the matrix allows users to evaluate changes and movement of trends. Third, the trends featured in this paper could be generalisable to several different circumstances associated with simple identity. Fourth, this paper has tested the ability to predict trends in an uncertain environment within the context of the ontological paradigm of prognosis and prediction of futures states.
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Ian Seymour Yeoman, Albert Postma and Stefan Hartman
A case study about the creation of four scenarios that were used to make sense of the fast-moving pace of COVID-19 and the consequences for New Zealand tourism.
Abstract
Purpose
A case study about the creation of four scenarios that were used to make sense of the fast-moving pace of COVID-19 and the consequences for New Zealand tourism.
Design/methodology/approach
Adapting global visitor economy scenarios, a set of New Zealand tourism scenarios were constructed using a “back of house Shell” method and were supplemented with an expert panel to test the reliability and validity of the scenarios.
Findings
The four scenarios constructed were based on two critical uncertainties, namely economic recession and the moral dilemma of the consumer. Four scenarios were portrayed using film and TV titles to help participants visualise the scenarios. Crazy Rich Asians: Recovery represented many of the attributes of tourism in New Zealand prior to COVID-19 i.e. a focus on high value tourists from Asia. Contagion: Survival of the Fittest represented the reality of the COVID-19 pandemic. This Side of Paradise: ReThinking Tourism focused on rebuilding tourism based upon the principles of sustainability. The Colony: Gated Communities represented fortress destinations trying to keep COVID-19 at bay. Each scenario portrayed several features including a unique narrative, tourism, the tourist, vision, strategy and risks. The paper highlighted the trade-offs and conflicts between the scenarios as COVID-19 unfolded in different directions.
Originality/value
In a fluid situation, the paper reminds readers of the value of scenarios as framing devices to understand the fast-moving pace of COVID-19 when New Zealand was in unchartered waters. Thus, this study highlights how a scenario-planning process builds resilience and foresight to help stakeholders and actors make sense of crisis situations.
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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of two micro trends on the future marketing functions of national tourism organisations (NTOs): the increasing power of…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of two micro trends on the future marketing functions of national tourism organisations (NTOs): the increasing power of individuals and the irreverence of NTO’s current marketing functions.
Design/methodology/approach
Through a discussion of the literature driving the two identified micro-trends, a number of supportive sub-micro trends were also identified and explored.
Findings
The paper concludes that NTO’s have failed to recognise the growing distrust of monolithic organisations. NTO’s seem to be more concerned about their own survival, rather than providing a service to both their citizens and tourists. Also NTO’s have failed to acknowledge that tourists are much more confident in making their own decisions, based on marketing information from their own trusted “closed friendship groups”, rather than relying on NTO’s.
Research limitations/implications
The paper is based on a discussion of issues from only two micro-trends, but tourist decision-making processes may be more complex than suggested.
Practical implications
The paper concludes that in the near future there will be an increasing rejection of NTO’s marketing information, and in the longer term this may result in the demise of NTO’s. However, if NTO’s are to survive, it suggests two actions they could take to ensure their future relevance to both its citizens and tourists.
Social implications
Questioning whether national/state organisations always act in the best interests of its citizens, challenges the trust in NTO’s. The paper suggests that NTO’s recognise that their power relationships are more strongly linked to ideals of nationhood and endorsement by their international peers, rather than providing services to tourists.
Originality/value
This paper questions the implicate assumption that NTO’s should be a trusted source of marketing information. It suggests that NTO’s have failed to recognise the changing methods tourist use to help in their decision making.
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To explore the future visions outlined in one of the first academic books on UK tourism to venture into tourism futures. Through today’s lens, their visions are explored through…
Abstract
Purpose
To explore the future visions outlined in one of the first academic books on UK tourism to venture into tourism futures. Through today’s lens, their visions are explored through three topics: Future Markets and Destinations; Future Resources; and the Future Organization of Tourism.
Design/methodology/approach
Exploring the backstory, key drivers and tipping points of UK tourism development and tourism education during the 1960s and 1970s, they help to understand the rationale for the authors 1974 future visions of UK tourism. These visions are tested against reality, using a mixture of data, softer evidence and the authors’ judgements.
Findings
Acknowledging the authors showed courage in presenting their future visions, when so little was known about the development of tourism, let alone tourism futures. The article highlights the successes and failures of their future visions across 20 tourism sectors, through 55 tourism forecasts. The reasons for weaknesses in some of their forecasts, and their foresight in highlighting little known issues are explored, along with key learning points for tourism futurists.
Research limitations/implications
The future visions of UK tourism were tested against data and other evidence, but this was not always possible. Therefore, the success or failures of some of the visions are based on the authors’ judgement.
Originality/value
Over the past 50 years, there has been a steady growth in tourism futures studies. Given the recent increase in awareness of history in driving futures thinking, perhaps now is the time to apply this viewpoint to previously published tourism futures studies because such reviews provide a timely reminder of the transient nature of tourism futures gazing.
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Francesc Fusté-Forné and Asif Hussain
This case study urges the future of visitor economy to rely on regenerative tourism to make tourism systems resilience in the long run.
Abstract
Purpose
This case study urges the future of visitor economy to rely on regenerative tourism to make tourism systems resilience in the long run.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper draws on published research and industry reports to discuss the future visitor economy and its impact on all dimensions of well-being focused on the case of Aotearoa New Zealand.
Findings
Results show that post-pandemic tourism transformation must protect and promote local identities, and enhance and enrich visitor experiences with a focus on cultural and natural heritage.
Originality/value
The recovery of tourism must not implement regenerative tourism as a new specific type of tourism but as a holistic understanding of tourism futures that encompasses communities and the environment, and where visitors are committed to preserve and protect our natural and socio-cultural environment.
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