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1 – 10 of over 16000
Article
Publication date: 4 April 2017

James Prater, Konstantinos Kirytopoulos and Tony Ma

One of the major challenges for any project is to prepare and develop an achievable baseline schedule and thus set the project up for success, rather than failure. The purpose of…

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Abstract

Purpose

One of the major challenges for any project is to prepare and develop an achievable baseline schedule and thus set the project up for success, rather than failure. The purpose of this paper is to explore and investigate research outputs in one of the major causes, optimism bias, to identify problems with developing baseline schedules and analyse mitigation techniques and their effectiveness recommended by research to minimise the impact of this bias.

Design/methodology/approach

A systematic quantitative literature review was followed, examining Project Management Journals, documenting the mitigation approaches recommended and then reviewing whether these approaches were validated by research.

Findings

Optimism bias proved to be widely accepted as a major cause of unrealistic scheduling for projects, and there is a common understanding as to what it is and the effects that it has on original baseline schedules. Based upon this review, the most recommended mitigation method is Flyvbjerg’s “Reference class,” which has been developed based upon Kahneman’s “Outside View”. Both of these mitigation techniques are based upon using an independent third party to review the estimate. However, within the papers reviewed, apart from the engineering projects, there has been no experimental and statistically validated research into the effectiveness of this method. The majority of authors who have published on this topic are based in Europe.

Research limitations/implications

The short-listed papers for this review referred mainly to non-engineering projects which included information technology focussed ones. Thus, on one hand, empirical research is needed for engineering projects, while on the other hand, the lack of tangible evidence for the effectiveness of methods related to the alleviation of optimism bias issues calls for greater research into the effectiveness of mitigation techniques for not only engineering projects, but for all projects.

Originality/value

This paper documents the growth within the project management research literature over time on the topic of optimism bias. Specifically, it documents the various methods recommended to mitigate the phenomenon and highlights quantitatively the research undertaken on the subject. Moreover, it introduces paths for further research.

Details

International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, vol. 10 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8378

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 November 2020

Bertram I. Steininger, Martin Groth and Brigitte L. Weber

We investigate causes for the cost overrun and delay of the railway project Stuttgart 21. Besides, we try to forecast the actual costs and completion date at an early stage.

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Abstract

Purpose

We investigate causes for the cost overrun and delay of the railway project Stuttgart 21. Besides, we try to forecast the actual costs and completion date at an early stage.

Design/methodology/approach

The results of exploratory research show the causes for the cost overrun and delay of Stuttgart 21; we compare our findings with other railway projects. To estimate the costs at an early stage, the reference class forecasting (RCF) model is applied; to estimate the time, we apply an OLS regression.

Findings

We find that the following causes are relevant for the cost overrun and delay of Stuttgart 21: scope changes, geological conditions, high risk-taking propensity, extended implementation, price overshoot, conflict of interests and lack of citizens' participation. The current estimated costs are within our 95% confidence interval based on RCF; our time forecast underestimates or substantially overestimates the duration actually required.

Research limitations/implications

A limitation of our approach is the low number of comparable projects which are available.

Practical implications

The use of hyperbolic function or stepwise exponential discount function can help to give a clearer picture of the costs and benefits. The straightforward use of the RFC for costs and OLS for time should motivate more decision-makers to estimate the actual costs and time which are necessary in the light of the rising demand for democratic participation amongst citizens.

Social implications

More realistic estimates can help to reduce the significant distortion at the beginning of infrastructure projects.

Originality/value

We are among the first who use the RCF to estimate the costs in Germany. Furthermore, the hyperbolic discounting function is added as a further theoretical explanation for cost underestimation.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 39 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 April 2014

Dominic D. Ahiaga-Dagbui and Simon D Smith

Drawing on mainstream arguments in the literature, the paper presents a coherent and holistic view on the causes of cost overruns, and the dynamics between cognitive dispositions…

3745

Abstract

Purpose

Drawing on mainstream arguments in the literature, the paper presents a coherent and holistic view on the causes of cost overruns, and the dynamics between cognitive dispositions, learning and estimation. A cost prediction model has also been developed using data mining for estimating final cost of projects. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

Design/methodology/approach

A mixed-method approach was adopted: a qualitative exploration of the causes of cost overrun followed by an empirical development of a final cost model using artificial neural networks.

Findings

A conceptual model to distinguish between the often conflated causes of underestimation and cost overruns on large publicly funded projects. The empirical model developed in this paper achieved an average absolute percentage error of 3.67 percent with 87 percent of the model predictions within a range of ±5 percent of the actual final cost.

Practical implications

The model developed can be converted to a desktop package for quick cost predictions and the generation of various alternative solutions for a construction project in a sort of what-if analysis for the purposes of comparison. The use of the model could also greatly reduce the time and resources spent on estimation.

Originality/value

A thorough discussion on the dynamics between cognitive dispositions, learning and cost estimation has been presented. It also presents a conceptual model for understanding two often conflated issues of cost overrun and under-estimation.

Details

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, vol. 19 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1366-4387

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 June 2023

Jyh-Bin Yang and Tzu-Hua Lai

This study aims to review earned value management (EVM)-relative methods, including the original EVM, earned schedule method (ESM) and earned duration management (EDM(t)). This…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to review earned value management (EVM)-relative methods, including the original EVM, earned schedule method (ESM) and earned duration management (EDM(t)). This study then proposes a general implementation procedure and some basic principles for the selection of EVM-relative methods.

Design/methodology/approach

After completing an intensive literature review, this study conducts a case study to examine the forecasting performance of project duration using the EVM, ESM and EDM(t) methods.

Findings

When the project is expected to finish on time, ESM with a performance factor equal to 1 is the recommended method. EDM(t) would be the most reliable method during a project's entire lifetime if EDM(t) is expected to be delayed based on past experience.

Research limitations/implications

As this research conducts a case study with only one building construction project, the results might not hold true for all types of construction projects.

Practical implications

EVM, ESM and EDM(t) are simple and data-accessible methods. With the help of a general implementation procedure, applying all three methods would be better. The power of the three methods is definitely larger than that of choosing only one for complex construction projects.

Originality/value

Previous studies have discussed the advantages and disadvantages of EVM, ESM and EDM(t). This study amends the available outcomes. Thus, for schedulers or researchers interested in implementing EVM, ESM and EDM(t), this study can provide more constructive instructions.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 24 September 2019

James Prater, Konstantinos Kirytopoulos and Tony Ma

Despite the advent of sophisticated control methods, there are still significant issues regarding late delivery of information technology projects. The purpose of this paper is to…

Abstract

Purpose

Despite the advent of sophisticated control methods, there are still significant issues regarding late delivery of information technology projects. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the common causes of scheduling problems specifically in the information technology projects context.

Design/methodology/approach

Through a quantitative research, the importance of those causes, as well as the underpinning factors driving them, is explored. The causes are ranked according to their relative important index, and exploratory factor analysis is employed to reveal underlying dimensions (factors) of these causes.

Findings

From the analysis, four factors were extracted, namely, “Dataless Newbie,” “Technical Newbie,” “Pragmatic Futurist” and “Optimistic Politician.” These factors explain the different latent conditions that lead to scheduling problems in information technology projects.

Practical implications

The key contribution of this research is that it enlightens the latent conditions underpinning scheduling problems. Also, the evidence provides that schedule development for information technology projects is impacted by the same causes that impact engineering projects, and that applying a number of mitigation techniques widely used within the engineering area, such as reference class, would, no doubt, not only improve information technology schedules but also reduce the political pressures on the project manager.

Originality/value

This research provides a valuable insight into understanding the underlying factors for poor project estimation.

Details

International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8378

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 5 August 2022

Wayne Borchardt, Takhaui Kamzabek and Dan Lovallo

A decade after Powell et al.’s (2011) seminal article on behavioral strategy, which called for models to solve real-world problems, the authors revisit the field to ask whether…

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Abstract

Purpose

A decade after Powell et al.’s (2011) seminal article on behavioral strategy, which called for models to solve real-world problems, the authors revisit the field to ask whether behavioral strategy is coming of age. The purpose of this paper is to explain how behavioral strategy can and has been used in real-world settings.

Design/methodology/approach

This study presents a conceptual review with case study examples of the impact of behavioral strategy on real-world problems.

Findings

This study illustrates several examples where behavioral strategy debiasing has been effective. Although no causal claims can be made, with the stark contrast between the negative impact of biased strategies and the positive results emerging from debiasing techniques, this study argues that there is evidence of the benefits of a behavioral strategy mindset, and that this should be the mindset of a responsible strategic leader.

Practical implications

This study presents a demonstration of analytical, debate and organizational debiasing techniques and how they are being used in real-world settings, specifically military intelligence, Mergers and acquisitions deal-making, resource allocation and capital projects.

Social implications

Behavioral strategy has broad application in private and public sectors. It has proven practical value in various settings, for example, the application of reference class forecasting in large infrastructure projects.

Originality/value

A conceptual review of behavioral strategy in the wild.

Details

Management Research Review, vol. 45 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-8269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 11 October 2023

Chinthaka Niroshan Atapattu, Niluka Domingo and Monty Sutrisna

Cost overrun in infrastructure projects is a constant concern, with a need for a proper solution. The current estimation practice needs improvement to reduce cost overruns. This…

Abstract

Purpose

Cost overrun in infrastructure projects is a constant concern, with a need for a proper solution. The current estimation practice needs improvement to reduce cost overruns. This study aimed to find possible statistical modelling techniques that could be used to develop cost models to produce more reliable cost estimates.

Design/methodology/approach

A bibliographic literature review was conducted using a two-stage selection method to compile the relevant publications from Scopus. Then, Visualisation of Similarities (VOS)-Viewer was used to develop the visualisation maps for co-occurrence keyword analysis and yearly trends in research topics.

Findings

The study found seven primary techniques used as cost models in construction projects: regression analysis (RA), artificial neural network (ANN), case-based reasoning (CBR), fuzzy logic, Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS), support vector machine (SVM) and reference class forecasting (RCF). RA, ANN and CBR were the most researched techniques. Furthermore, it was observed that the model's performance could be improved by combining two or more techniques into one model.

Research limitations/implications

The research was limited to the findings from the bibliometric literature review.

Practical implications

The findings provided an assessment of statistical techniques that the industry can adopt to improve the traditional estimation practice of infrastructure projects.

Originality/value

This study mapped the research carried out on cost-modelling techniques and analysed the trends. It also reviewed the performance of the models developed for infrastructure projects. The findings could be used to further research to develop more reliable cost models using statistical modelling techniques with better performance.

Details

Smart and Sustainable Built Environment, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2046-6099

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 January 2021

Nismah Panjaitan, Ab-Samat Hasnida and Amir Yazid Ali

This study aims to find work concepts and mesoergonomic stages that are not well known and are not widely used in solving problems related to ergonomics using macro and micro…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to find work concepts and mesoergonomic stages that are not well known and are not widely used in solving problems related to ergonomics using macro and micro ergonomics.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used a questionnaire distributed to several ergonomists who were able to provide opinions on meso ergonomics, especially in determining what aspects affected meso ergonomics so that the meso stages could be determined.

Findings

The results of data collection show that aspects that affect meso ergonomics are closely related to macro and micro ergonomics, aspects that are found to have similarities between the three because meso ergonomics is between them.

Research limitations/implications

Determine the stages of meso ergonomics and clarify the limits of meso ergonomics using a questionnaire distributed to several respondents who understand ergonomics.

Practical implications

This paper can be applied to organizations that have a tiered organizational structure so that departments in the organization are divided into several parts to be observed and related to each other in carrying out organizational functions.

Social implications

Provides convenience for researchers in observing organizations with the presence of mesoergonomics which is a bridge between macro and micro ergonomics.

Originality/value

The stages of meso ergonomics are arranged based on aspects and meso ergonomics variables that have been obtained from previous studies which now have added some considerations in the preparation of mesoergonomic stages such as the macroergonomic analysis design on macro ergonomics.

Details

Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology , vol. 20 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1726-0531

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 July 2018

Christian A. Rudolf and Stefan Spinler

Large-scale projects are the typical delivery model in the engineering and construction industry, with their very own characteristics. Even though well established, only 1 in…

2789

Abstract

Purpose

Large-scale projects are the typical delivery model in the engineering and construction industry, with their very own characteristics. Even though well established, only 1 in 1,000 large-scale projects is successful (Flyvbjerg, 2011). A lack of effective supply chain risk management (SCRM) has repeatedly been identified as one of the main causes. While the SCRM body of knowledge seems increasingly well established, a lack of effective methods meeting the specific requirements of large-scale projects can be observed.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper presents a structured and prioritized view on the supply chain risk portfolio in this sector: first, the authors identified and categorized the key supply chain risks in the recent literature. Next, the authors surveyed large-scale project managers across multiple industries, mainly coming from the domains of supply chain management and project management. Finally, the authors provide a contextualized risk taxonomy for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) projects.

Findings

The identified risk portfolio deviates from generic projects significantly and shows a very high inherent risk exposure of large-scale projects. In particular, behavioral risks are identified as crucial. Additionally, a bias to considerably underestimate risks at project beginning is found.

Originality/value

The contextualized SCRM taxonomy offers a systematic and structured view on the key supply chain risks in EPC large-scale projects. The identified risks are considerably different in their characteristics compared to generic projects or classical SCRM approaches. The authors thus provide a new perspective on SCRM in this specific setting and complement traditional risk and project risk management techniques.

Details

Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, vol. 23 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1359-8546

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 December 2022

Bright Awuku, Eric Asa, Edmund Baffoe-Twum and Adikie Essegbey

Challenges associated with ensuring the accuracy and reliability of cost estimation of highway construction bid items are of significant interest to state highway transportation…

Abstract

Purpose

Challenges associated with ensuring the accuracy and reliability of cost estimation of highway construction bid items are of significant interest to state highway transportation agencies. Even with the existing research undertaken on the subject, the problem of inaccurate estimation of highway bid items still exists. This paper aims to assess the accuracy of the cost estimation methods employed in the selected studies to provide insights into how well they perform empirically. Additionally, this research seeks to identify, synthesize and assess the impact of the factors affecting highway unit prices because they affect the total cost of highway construction costs.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper systematically searched, selected and reviewed 105 papers from Scopus, Google Scholar, American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), Transportation Research Board (TRB) and Science Direct (SD) on conceptual cost estimation of highway bid items. This study used content and nonparametric statistical analyses to determine research trends, identify, categorize the factors influencing highway unit prices and assess the combined performance of conceptual cost prediction models.

Findings

Findings from the trend analysis showed that between 1983 and 2019 North America, Asia, Europe and the Middle East contributed the most to improving highway cost estimation research. Aggregating the quantitative results and weighting the findings using each study's sample size revealed that the average error between the actual and the estimated project costs of Monte-Carlo simulation models (5.49%) performed better compared to the Bayesian model (5.95%), support vector machines (6.03%), case-based reasoning (11.69%), artificial neural networks (12.62%) and regression models (13.96%). This paper identified 41 factors and was grouped into three categories, namely: (1) factors relating to project characteristics; (2) organizational factors and (3) estimate factors based on the common classification used in the selected papers. The mean ranking analysis showed that most of the selected papers used project-specific factors more when estimating highway construction bid items than the other factors.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to the body of knowledge by analyzing and comparing the performance of highway cost estimation models, identifying and categorizing a comprehensive list of cost drivers to stimulate future studies in improving highway construction cost estimates.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 31 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 16000