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1 – 6 of 6In this paper, we evaluated the impact of the US “Chip Act” on the participation of the Chinese electronics industry in the global value chain based on the dynamic CGE model. This…
Abstract
Purpose
In this paper, we evaluated the impact of the US “Chip Act” on the participation of the Chinese electronics industry in the global value chain based on the dynamic CGE model. This is a meaningful attempt to use the GTAP-VA model to analyze the electronics industry in China.
Design/methodology/approach
We employ a Dynamic GTAP-VA Model to quantitatively evaluate the economic repercussions of the “Chip Act” on the Chinese electronic industries' GVC participation from 2023 to 2040.
Findings
The findings depict a discernible contraction in China’s electronic sector by 2040, marked by a −2.95% change in output, a −3.50% alteration in exports and a 0.45% increment in imports. Concurrently, the U.S., EU and certain Asian economies exhibit expansions within the electronic sector, indicating a GVC realignment. The “Chip Act” implementation precipitates a significant divergence in GVC participation across different countries and industries, notably impacting the electronics sector.
Research limitations/implications
Through a meticulous temporal analysis, this manuscript unveils the nuanced economic shifts within the GVC, substantially bridging the empirical void in existing literature. This narrative accentuates the profound implications of policy regulations on global trade dynamics, contributing to the discourse on international economic policy and industry evolution.
Practical implications
We evaluated the impact of the US “Chip Act” on the participation of the Chinese electronics industry in the global value chain based on the dynamic CGE model. This is a meaningful attempt to use the GTAP-VA model to analyze the electronics industry in China.
Social implications
The interaction between policy regulations and global value chain (GVC) dynamics is pivotal in understanding the contemporary global trade framework, especially within technology-driven sectors. The US “Chips Act” represents a significant regulatory milestone with potential ramifications on the Chinese electronic industries' engagement in the GVC.
Originality/value
The significance of this paper is that it quantifies for the first time the impact of the US Chip Act on the GVC participation index of East Asian countries in the context of US-China decoupling. With careful consideration of strategic aspects, this paper substantially fills the empirical gap in the existing literature by presenting subtle economic changes within GVCs, highlighting the profound implications of policy regulation on global trade dynamics.
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Christopher Belford, Delin Huang, Yosri Nasr Ahmed, Ebrima Ceesay and Lang Sanyang
Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival adversely impact the agriculture sector. In an impoverished country like The Gambia, economic costs of climate change are…
Abstract
Purpose
Climate change and its imminent threat to human survival adversely impact the agriculture sector. In an impoverished country like The Gambia, economic costs of climate change are colossal. This study aims to establish a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for The Gambia’s agriculture sector to examine the effects of climate change on crops, livestock and sea-level rise.
Design/methodology/approach
This study used a CGE model with other climate change impact models to compute the impacts of climate change on The Gambia’s agriculture sector. The social accounting matrix calibrates the results from the various models, thereby generating the baseline results which exemplify a “steady-state” and policy shock results illustrating the medium- and long-term effects of climate change on the country’s agriculture sector.
Findings
The baseline results indicate the status quo showing the neglect of the agriculture sector due to limited investment in the sector. Hence, the sector is the “hardest hit” sector as a result of climate change. When the model factored in climate change in the medium term (2055) and long term (2085), the macroeconomic indicators of gross domestic product, national savings, wages, disposable income and consumer price index deteriorated, elucidating the vulnerability of the economy to climate change. The consumption of groundnuts, cattle and fish will decline by 5%, 5% and 4%, respectively, in the long term. However, the production of all agricultural commodities will decline by an average of 35% for the same period. The results for international trade show that exportation would decline while importation will increase over time. The general price level for agricultural commodities would increase by 3% in 2055 and 5% in 2085. Generally, the results manifest the severity of climate change in the agriculture sector which will have a multiplier effect on the economy. The impact of climate change would result in agriculture and economic decline causing hunger, poverty and human misery.
Originality/value
The caveat of this study revealed the nuances not captured by previous Gambian climate change studies, thus the novelty of the study.
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Neng Shen, Yuqing Zhao and Rumeng Deng
This paper aims to review the literature on carbon trading from the perspective of evolution, finds out the evolution path of these literatures and gives out the future research…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to review the literature on carbon trading from the perspective of evolution, finds out the evolution path of these literatures and gives out the future research hotspots in this field.
Design/methodology/approach
Uses visualization tools (CiteSpace and HistCite) to systematically categorize the literature on carbon-trading schemes in the Web of Science core collection from 1998 to 2018, comprehensively analyzes carbon-trading schemes from four dimensions, namely, discipline evolution, keyword evolution, citation cluster evolution and citation path evolution.
Findings
Research on carbon-trading schemes has a specific development and evolution path along four dimensions, namely, in the discipline dimension, the largest change lies in the mathematics pointed to by at least four different disciplines; the keyword evolution dimension shows a gradual deepening emphasis on coordinated development; citation clusters identify three major clusters – carbon prices, China’s carbon trading, carbon market and supply chain; and citation paths identify three major evolutionary paths, the most important of which shows that “What affects carbon price?” has changed to “What is the impact of carbon prices?”
Originality/value
Reveals the evolution path of carbon trading research studies and proposes four possible development directions for carbon-trading scheme research, which is helpful for future carbon trading-related research and serves as a reference for the promotion of and improvements in carbon-trading schemes.
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Zerayehu Sime Eshete, Dawit Woubishet Mulatu and Tsegaye Ginbo Gatiso
Climate change has become one of the most important development challenges worldwide. It affects various sectors, with agriculture the most vulnerable. In Ethiopia, climate change…
Abstract
Purpose
Climate change has become one of the most important development challenges worldwide. It affects various sectors, with agriculture the most vulnerable. In Ethiopia, climate change impacts are exacerbated due to the economy’s heavy dependence on agriculture. The Ethiopian Government has started to implement its climate-resilient green economy (CRGE) strategy and reduce CO2 emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the impact of CO2 emission on agricultural productivity and household welfare.
Design/methodology/approach
This study aims to fill these significant research and knowledge gaps using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model to investigate CO2 emissions’ impact on agricultural performance and household welfare.
Findings
The results indicate that CO2 emissions negatively affect agricultural productivity and household welfare. Compared to the baseline, real agricultural gross domestic product is projected to be 4.5% lower in the 2020s under a no-CRGE scenario. Specifically, CO2 emissions lead to a decrease in the production of traded and non-traded crops, but not livestock. Emissions also worsen the welfare of all segments of households, where the most vulnerable groups are the rural-poor households.
Originality/value
The debate in the area is not derived from a rigorous analysis and holistic economy-wide approach. Therefore, the paper fills this gap and is original by value and examines these issues methodically.
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Discussion of unification was for several decades focused on the costs rather than the benefits for Korea, until reports emphasizing the latter were published by Goldman Sachs…
Abstract
Discussion of unification was for several decades focused on the costs rather than the benefits for Korea, until reports emphasizing the latter were published by Goldman Sachs (2009) and various Korean think tanks over the past four to five years. Although these studies can be evaluated positively in pointing out the benefits of unification rather than the concerns about the costs, several questions can be raised. This paper tries to evaluate the quality and credibility of existing studies and suggests a new approach for estimating the impact of unification. It proposes a computational general equilibrium (CGE) model to be based on the social accounting matrix (SAM) and input-output (IO) table for the North Korean economy, in order to produce more reliable estimates of the benefits and costs of unification and the impact of various cooperative activities between the two Koreas.
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Ye Duan, Zenglin Han, Hao Zhang and Hongye Wang
Environmental problems such as CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) emissions have seriously affected the development of the steel industry, which has urged the industry to adopt a more effective…
Abstract
Purpose
Environmental problems such as CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) emissions have seriously affected the development of the steel industry, which has urged the industry to adopt a more effective emission reduction policy. This paper aims to analyze the impact of various CO2 emission reduction policies combinations on the economic benefits and environmental changes of the steel industry and to determine the scope of application.
Design/methodology/approach
To compare the impact and applicable implementation conditions, a production decision game model that incorporates these two policies has been constructed. Short-, medium- and long-term constraints are set on the emission reduction indicators and the indicators’ changes under various scenarios are compared.
Findings
In the case of a single emission reduction policy, the carbon trading (CT) mechanism is better than the carbon tax mechanism. The mixed carbon trading mechanism is superior to the mixed carbon tax mechanism in terms of total output and subsidies, but worse in terms of overall social welfare, producer surplus and macro losses.
Originality/value
This paper constructs multiple emission reduction and production backgrounds and discusses the impact of the comprehensive implementation of these policies, which is practically absent in previous studies. It is in line with the current industrial policy for stable production and environmental protection and also provides a reference for the formulation of detailed policies in the future.
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