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Dynamic General Equilibrium Modelling for Forecasting and Policy: A Practical Guide and Documentation of MONASH
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44451-260-4

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Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78350-570-8

Book part
Publication date: 1 January 2003

Mohamed Abdelbasset Chemingui and Sébastien Dessus

In this paper, a recursive-dynamic CGE model is used to analyze forces that drive food self-sufficiency in Tunisia up to 2019, including domestic policies. We explore the impact…

Abstract

In this paper, a recursive-dynamic CGE model is used to analyze forces that drive food self-sufficiency in Tunisia up to 2019, including domestic policies. We explore the impact of two policies, agricultural liberalization and increased government spending to raise yields, as well as the role of increased urbanization. Our results indicate the presence of trade-offs between the government goals of food self-sufficiency and improved welfare for both rural and urban households. The results for a scenario that combines liberalization, increased government spending on agriculture, and accelerated urbanization shows a stronger performance in terms of both self-sufficiency and welfare objectives.

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Food, Agriculture, and Economic Policy in the Middle East and North Africa
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76230-992-4

Book part
Publication date: 9 September 2020

Peter C.Y. Chow

Applying a computable general equilibrium model to assess the impact of tariffs between the US and China, Taiwan stands to gain from trade diversion of the trade war between the…

Abstract

Applying a computable general equilibrium model to assess the impact of tariffs between the US and China, Taiwan stands to gain from trade diversion of the trade war between the two largest world economies in the short term.

Initially, Taiwan suffered a minor loss from the sector-specific tariff on steel and aluminum imposed by the US. However, its loss is mitigated after counting counter measures from foreign countries. The cumulated US tariffs and China's retaliations led to trade diversion effect. Taiwan's initial loss from the steel and aluminum tariffs was over compensated by a series of trade war between the US and China.

Under the scenario of the cumulated tariffs of $250 billion of US imports and China's retaliations of $110 billion on US goods, the social welfare, exports, import and trade balance in Taiwan increased. Its terms of trade improved as well. Real wage increases slightly more for unskilled labor than for skilled labor. The short-term effect of the trade war has positive effect on all macro indicators of Taiwan's economy.

On sectoral shift, Taiwan's export will gain the most in precision engineering products ($2,941.6 million), followed by electronics ($310.7 million) and agricultural products ($31.3 million). The negative effects are in sectors such as business services ($58.323 million), other services ($46.9 million), transportation service ($36.6 million), trade service ($25.3 million), and finance service ($24.5 million). Taiwan's total imports will increase by 0.59%, whereas its total export will increase by 0.33%. However, total trade balance still increases by $451.1 million.

The study also finds that Taiwan has a high degree of overlapping export commodities with China in the US market, much higher than most major trading partners for the US, yet its market share for those products in the US is ranged from 1% to 5% only. Moreover, more than 60% of Taiwan's export to the US is in intermediate goods which have less product differentiation than those in final consumption goods. These two factors will provide an opportunity for Taiwan to exploit the US market.

Though the short-term effect of trade war is positive, Taiwan needs to have a long-range planning amid the external shocks. Policy implications for Taiwan are to map out a cosmopolitan view of its geo-strategy by diversifying outward foreign direct investment and trade destinations. It needs to reduce the “systemic risk” of relying on single market in China which is vulnerable to the uncertainty in the US–China relations. If the trade war lasts too long, Taiwan would need to reevaluate its triangular trade-investment nexus with China and the US as well as its role in the global supply chain.

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Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83867-363-5

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Book part
Publication date: 24 September 2010

Joseph F. Francois and Will Martin

Most current modeling approaches identify very small gains from trade reform. In this chapter, we examine recent developments in the literature to assess whether standard modeling…

Abstract

Most current modeling approaches identify very small gains from trade reform. In this chapter, we examine recent developments in the literature to assess whether standard modeling approaches are mis-specifying, understating, or overstating the gains from trade reform. Key areas where the impacts of trade barrier reduction appear to be understated include the measurement of barriers; the aggregation of these barriers; process productivity gains, particularly those resulting from reallocation of resources between firms; product quality improvements and expansion of product variety; factor supply; and investment of gains from trade.

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New Developments in Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for Trade Policy
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-142-9

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Book part
Publication date: 15 July 2017

Zuzana Smeets Kristkova, Michiel van Dijk and Hans van Meijl

The purpose of this chapter is to analyze the impact of public agricultural Research and Development (R&D) investments on agricultural productivity and long-term food security to…

Abstract

The purpose of this chapter is to analyze the impact of public agricultural Research and Development (R&D) investments on agricultural productivity and long-term food security to derive policy recommendations. The methodological approach is based on the application of the state-of-the art Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to R&D. By endogenizing R&D in global CGE models, it is possible to assess the impact of different public R&D policies on the food availability and food access of food security. This study found that R&D investments bring positive effects on the food access dimension of food security, particularly in places such as Sub-Saharan Africa where prices are expected to grow significantly by 2050, as agricultural land becomes scarcer and more expensive. Doubling the R&D intensity would soften the land constraints and substantially decelerate food prices, thus preventing the deterioration of living standards of rural households and leading to a gain in daily caloric consumption. The impact of alternative agricultural R&D policies on the various dimensions of food security has not been analyzed using a CGE framework, which enables capturing both the benefits and costs from R&D investments. Modeling the dynamic accumulation of R&D stocks makes it possible to analyze the effects of R&D on food security over time.

Abstract

Details

Dynamic General Equilibrium Modelling for Forecasting and Policy: A Practical Guide and Documentation of MONASH
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44451-260-4

Abstract

Details

Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78350-570-8

Book part
Publication date: 24 May 2007

Frederic Carluer

“It should also be noted that the objective of convergence and equal distribution, including across under-performing areas, can hinder efforts to generate growth. Contrariwise

Abstract

“It should also be noted that the objective of convergence and equal distribution, including across under-performing areas, can hinder efforts to generate growth. Contrariwise, the objective of competitiveness can exacerbate regional and social inequalities, by targeting efforts on zones of excellence where projects achieve greater returns (dynamic major cities, higher levels of general education, the most advanced projects, infrastructures with the heaviest traffic, and so on). If cohesion policy and the Lisbon Strategy come into conflict, it must be borne in mind that the former, for the moment, is founded on a rather more solid legal foundation than the latter” European Commission (2005, p. 9)Adaptation of Cohesion Policy to the Enlarged Europe and the Lisbon and Gothenburg Objectives.

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Managing Conflict in Economic Convergence of Regions in Greater Europe
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-451-5

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Book part
Publication date: 15 July 2017

Abstract

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World Agricultural Resources and Food Security
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78714-515-3

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