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The purpose of this study is to review the literature on the Delphi method, its characteristics and current applications through an analysis of recent most-cited scientific papers, with an emphasis on three axes, namely, the number of rounds used, stakeholder participation relevance or only academic experts’ participation and the possibility of using indicators or techniques different from those related to descriptive statistics.

In total, 57 papers were initially reviewed, 10 of them with a high citation rate. Then, an analysis was made of papers in Scopus for the period 2015-2018 published in the Technological Forecasting and Social Change Journal and in the Futures and Foresight Journal, which had the characteristic of displaying quartile Q1 or Q2 in Scimago in addition to being in Scopus.

Among the main results, the authors observe the tendency to use fewer rounds, a higher prevalence of stakeholder participation and not only academic experts but also the use of new types of modified Delphi such as real-time spatial Delphi, Delphi group, market Delphi, real-world Delphi and policy Delphi.

Among the conclusions, the possibility of using other indicators or complementary techniques to the descriptive statistics is highlighted such as number of justifications or comments between rounds, coefficients to quantify the competence or degree of expertise of the participants, measures of the perception of the expert on the usefulness of the presented feedback, graphs of the number of arguments according to the number of questions, the Wilcoxon Ranked Pairs Test, the k means, Kolmogorov–Simonov test and the Mann–Whitney U-test.

Particularly in volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) business conditions, staff in supply chain management (SCM) look to real-time (RT) data processing to reduce uncertainties. However, based on the premise that data processing can be perfectly mastered, such expectations do not reflect reality. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether RT data processing reduces SCM uncertainties under real-world conditions.

Aiming to facilitate communication on the research question, a Delphi expert survey was conducted to identify challenges of RT data processing in SCM operations and to assess whether it does influence the reduction of SCM uncertainty. In total, 14 prospective statements concerning RT data processing in SCM operations were developed and evaluated by 68 SCM and data-science experts.

RT data processing was found to have an ambivalent influence on the reduction of SCM complexity and associated uncertainty. Analysis of the data collected from the study participants revealed a new type of uncertainty related to SCM data itself.

This paper discusses the challenges of gathering relevant, timely and accurate data sets in VUCA environments and creates awareness of the relationship between data-related uncertainty and SCM uncertainty. Thus, it provides valuable insights for practitioners and the basis for further research on this subject.

This article presents an introduction to the Delphi method and review of Delphi studies published in the literature of library and information science (LIS).

A review of Delphi studies published between the years of 1971 and 2019 is performed, using studies retrieved from the Library and Information Science Source database. A total of 122 articles were retrieved and evaluated based on the population studied, means of identifying experts, number of participants for each study round, type of Delphi, and type of findings.

General librarians (any type), academic librarians, and information science researchers are the most common populations in LIS Delphi studies. On average (middle 50 percent of studies), 14–36 experts are used in the first round of LIS Delphi studies (median n = 23). Employment in a specific role and publications in scholarly journals are the most common means of identifying experts. Variants of the e-Delphi (online survey/email) method are increasingly common, particularly in LIS Delphi studies that focus on general information science, rather than library, topics. Though LIS Delphi studies are relatively few in number, they have a consistent record of being published in some of the most prestigious LIS journals.

This paper provides an introduction to the Delphi method for LIS research and presents an overview of existing literature in LIS that utilizes the research method. No overview of this extent exists in the LIS literature, and, thus, this paper may serve as an important information source about the method for LIS researchers.

The last 20 years have seen increasing interest in the use of Delphi in a wide range of health‐care applications. However, this use has been accompanied by attempts to codify and define a “true Delphi”. Many authors take a narrow view of the purpose of Delphi and/or advocate a single prescriptive approach to the conduct of a Delphi study. However, as early as 1975, Linstone and Turoff pointed to the danger of attempting to define Delphi as one would immediately encounter a study that violated that definition. Through critical examination of some of the controversies and misunderstandings that surround Delphi, this paper aims to dispel some of the myths and demonstrates the wide scope and potential of this versatile approach.

There are latent fears that in a Delphi exercise, the opinions of participants might be impaired due to the proximity of other participants. However, the thoughtful selection of participants and effective communication during the process can guarantee the independence of the participants’ opinions. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

The single site case study method was adopted and the participants for the Delphi exercise were chosen from the strategic and tactical levels of leadership. The professional, positional experience and responsibilities of the participants guaranteed the quality of their opinions.

Although some of the facilities management participants are from the same division, the data collected demonstrate the opinions of independent minds, thus guaranteeing that consensus was achieved without complicity.

The research shows that it is possible to achieve consensus of opinion in a Delphi exercise without complicity, even when the participants know each other. This can be achieved through the painstaking selection of appropriate participants, the skills of the research coordinator and transparent communication between the rounds and in the final report.

Consumer goods supply chains (SCs) are characterized by continuously changing customer trends. Early detection of these trends is crucial for deriving successful long-term SC strategies. The purpose of this paper is to present a systematic process to support decision makers in assessing future-relevant issues and developing strategies.

In order to contribute to the quality of long-term decision making for SC strategy, we combine strategic issue management (SIM) and corporate foresight methodology. The authors develop a procedure that integrates the Delphi technique and SIM to empirically demonstrate how “Delphi-based SIM” can support SC strategy development.

The paper demonstrates how to craft a strategy for consumer goods SCs supported by Delphi-based SIM. The authors are able to include and evaluate uncertain and ambivalent future developments. Pertinent strategic issues for the consumer goods SC include: consumer demographics, automated ordering, city supply, and concept stores. For the reference company, five different strategic paths were created and evaluated.

It is challenging for companies to be well prepared for dynamic business environments and to successfully establish a robust SC strategy. The authors develop a systematic Delphi-based SIM for detecting and evaluating signals and integrating them into SC strategy development.

To date, a structured approach to integrate uncertain and ambivalent issues into SC strategy development is missing. With SIM and corporate foresight, the authors provide novel methods for strategy development in the consumer goods SC.

The aim is to present research results on global logistics scenarios 2025 with focus on the future contribution the logistics industry can make to the triple bottom line – people, planet and profit.

The research was conducted within the scope of an interdisciplinary foresight conference, where a group of 216 renowned persons from 16 countries in business, academia and politics discussed policies and strategies for the future role of logistics as an enabler and driver of global wealth. Attendants were asked to share their visions of the future via a real-time Delphi study. The results were further discussed in futures workshops according to World Café methodology for group dialog.

Based on extensive desk research of scenario studies, expert workshops, and creative sessions, the authors developed 20 key Delphi projections for global logistics in 2025. Experts were asked to rate the projection's probability, impact, and desirability as well as to provide reasons for all answers via the Delphi online-portal. Key topics of the Delphi-based scenarios include global health care supply chains, resource logistics (urban mining), water transportation, energy supply, and education. Moreover, the authors analysed discontinuities in global logistics, such as pandemics, conflicts, and resource crises.

The increasing impact of logistics on a nation's and company's success underlines the importance of future-oriented and sustainable planning in this field. With this research endeavor, the authors provide insights in action needed to be taken by industry, politics and academia in order to leverage the full potentials of logistics and support the economic development of the world.

The selection of experts for Delphi studies is crucial for the quality of the forecast results and the information taken into account. In the past, this has usually been done by selecting participants according to their reputation, although this approach is questionable in terms of reaching the most knowledgeable participants having new, relevant and valid information. In this context, this paper aims to propose to operate a prediction market alongside Delphi studies and select participants based on their trading behaviour in the market for the Delphi study.

Based on more than three years of historical prediction market trading data, the authors verify attributes that indicate insightful trades, as previously discussed in the finance literature, by using regression and classification trees.

The paper contributes attributes of trading behaviour that are theoretically derived from literature and potentially related to informed traders. These are tested and evaluated on historical prediction market data. Especially, the trading volume, the spread at the moment of trading and the market maker attribute seem to predict informed traders the best.

Algorithms based on identified attributes can be used to objectify the selection of experts for Delphi studies with potential gains in terms of the amount of information considered.

The objective of this paper is to build an understanding of how to bring about change, improve relationships, facilitate knowledge creation and sharing, and support coherence and sense‐making among clinical faculty with little or no background in medical education.

In this process the conventional Delphi approach was used, as it was believed that it would help in gaining the most reliable agreement of opinions of a diverse group of faculty members in the shortest time.

The paper finds that the instructional and assessment tools and approaches that were being used were mostly traditional. The challenge was to get them to a consensus as most of the faculty/teachers were unsure about replacing the traditional approaches which were “time tested” to newer “evidence‐based” methodology. This paper demonstrates that four features – namely, anonymity, iteration, controlled feedback and cumulative statistical group response – are the key contributory factors to moving the “unsure group” to an agreement.

Conventional silent technique shows promise in getting the “non‐educationists” on the same page without much friction, but has limitations as it was limited to a specific group and a single university setting.

This process created connections between the faculty members that carry a long‐lasting effect and not just the resolution of the problem of the day.

This paper establishes that this exercise will bring about a positive change in the attitude and practices of the faculty /teachers and can help them to implement “evidence based” methodology for teaching and learning.

Across country and regional borders firms are faced with the question whether to address individual markets on a stand-alone basis or cooperatively. In order to support such strategic decisions, this paper aims to develop a decision framework accounting for the most relevant market dynamics affecting joint venture (JV) decisions, particularly in the truck industry. Moreover, the authors apply the framework to an expert Delphi and scenario approach to back a Western original equipment manufacturers (OEM’s) JV decision in the truck industry in Russia. Based on country-specific projections structured along the globally applicable decision framework, the authors serve executives’ individual information demand in an institutionally unique emerging market environment.

Online real-time expert Delphi study; scenario analysis; and expert workshops were used in this study.

Among other insights, the results predict hard times for Russian OEMs as they will likely face strong foreign competition, leading to decreased sales volumes and market shares. Although some experts doubt the survival of several Russian truck manufacturers, the Delphi sheds light on possible strategic responses, including consolidation, cooperation or focusing on new markets. Based on the Delphi results and an additional expert workshop, we draw multiple scenarios addressing, particularly, uncertain aspects of the industry’s development and their likely impact on the key stakeholder groups.

Although there are some studies following a similar methodological approach as that in this study (von der Gracht and Darkow, 2010; Gnatzy and Moser, 2012), the authors break new ground in developing a JV-dedicated decision framework and applying it to a special emerging market industry setup.