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1 – 10 of over 3000
Article
Publication date: 8 January 2024

Deevarshan Naidoo, Peter Brian Denton Moores-Pitt and Joseph Olorunfemi Akande

Understanding which market to invest in for a well-diversified portfolio is fundamental in economies that are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates. Extant…

Abstract

Purpose

Understanding which market to invest in for a well-diversified portfolio is fundamental in economies that are highly vulnerable to fluctuations in exchange rates. Extant literature that has considered phenomenon hardly juxtapose the markets. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of exchange rate volatility on the Stock and Real Estate market of South Africa. The essence is to determine whether the fluctuations in the exchange rate influence the markets prices differently.

Design/methodology/approach

The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [GARCH (1.1)] model was used in establishing the effect of exchange rate volatility on both markets. This study used monthly South African data between 2000 and 2020.

Findings

The results of this study showed that increased exchange rate volatility increases stock market volatility but decreases real-estate market volatility, both of which revealed weak influences from the exchange rates volatility.

Practical implications

This study has implication for policy in using the exchange rate as a policy tool to attract foreign portfolio investment. The weak volatility transmission from the exchange rate market to the stock and real estate market indicates that there is prospect for foreign investors to diversify their investments in these two markets.

Originality/value

This study investigated which of the assets market, stock or housing market do better in volatile exchange rate conditions in South Africa.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 17 November 2023

Sami Zaki Alabdulwahab and Ahmed Sabry Abou-Zaid

This paper aims to empirically investigate the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt using structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The data covers the period…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to empirically investigate the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt using structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The data covers the period between 1980 and 2016, where exchange regime has been changed more than once.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper investigates the source of real exchange rate fluctuations for the period between 1980 and 2016 using the SVAR method. The SVAR method will incorporate real gross domestic product (GDP), real effective exchange rate (REER) and price level in a multidimensional equations system. However, impulse response function (IRF) and error variance decompositions (EVDC) will be generated by the system to have a behavioral insight of real exchange rate in response to economic shocks.

Findings

The IRF and EVDC results indicate a significant impact of demand shocks over the real exchange rate relative to supply shocks and monetary shocks in the period between 1980 and 2016. On the other hand, monetary shocks will have a negligible effect on the real exchange rate in the short run and converging to its previous level in the covering period of the study.

Originality/value

In the best of the authors' knowledge, the topic of the source of the real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt has not been discussed in a wide range due to the lack of time series data. However, this study provides constructed data for REER for Egypt with the published method in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Furthermore, the study involves theoretical and econometric modeling to ensure the reliability of the economic results.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. 9 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 November 2021

Mohini Gupta and Sakshi Varshney

The aim the study is to explore the impact of real exchange rate volatility and other macroeconomic variable such as price of import, industrial production and real exchange rate…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim the study is to explore the impact of real exchange rate volatility and other macroeconomic variable such as price of import, industrial production and real exchange rate on 45 import commodities, considering global financial crisis period on India's import from the US. The empirical analysis at disaggregate level of import indicates the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in one-third importing commodities. The results show both positive and negative effect and causality among variables.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses E-GARCH model to gage the real exchange rate volatility, an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound test technique to discover the adequate short- and long-run relationships and Toda-Yamamoto causality method to analyze the causality among variables. The study uses the time period from 2002:M09 to 2019:M06.

Findings

The empirical analysis at disaggregate level of import indicates the existence of both short-run and long-run effect in one-third importing commodities. The results show both positive and negative effects and causality among variables.

Practical implications

The finding of the study suggests that macroeconomic variables have significant role and could be important to undertake the small and medium scale industries in policymaking. Government may need to make decision for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) as their performance can bring change in the trade to compete globally by increasing and controlling the price of the import and defending the domestic competitiveness.

Originality/value

The study uses additional variable namely price of import and includes the global financial crisis period to measure dampening effect on each commodity by using robust econometric technique in context of emerging nation like India.

Details

South Asian Journal of Business Studies, vol. 12 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-628X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 August 2023

Laurent Oloukoi

This article examines if the national productions of West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries can be substituted for the imports by testing MLRC in these…

Abstract

Purpose

This article examines if the national productions of West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries can be substituted for the imports by testing MLRC in these countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The Mundell–Fleming model (MMF) is the analytical framework adopted in this paper with import demand and export supply functions estimation borrowed to Thirlwall (1979). This study covers four countries in West Africa from 1990 to 2021. The estimation procedure used is an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration.

Findings

The findings reveal that there is a strong marginal propensity to import in the WAEMU countries. The hypothesis of a non-significant price effect on imports in the short-term is confirmed for several countries while only Togo satisfies the MLRC in the short and long run.

Originality/value

This study presents several originalities: (1) it evaluates MLRC with a clear analytical framework; (2) unlike other studies, this article quantifies the MLRC from a theoretical, econometric and empirical point of view; (3) this article presents the results country by country in order to reveal heterogeneity between countries; (4) this study adds to the Marshall–Lerner condition for the derivation of Robinson by considering a situation where initially the trade balance is not in equilibrium.

Details

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, vol. 14 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-0705

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 January 2024

Faris Alshubiri, Samia Fekir and Billal Chikhi

The present study aimed to examine the effect of received remittance inflows on the price level ratio of the purchasing power parity conversion factor to the market exchange rate…

Abstract

Purpose

The present study aimed to examine the effect of received remittance inflows on the price level ratio of the purchasing power parity conversion factor to the market exchange rate in 36 developed and developing countries from 2004 to 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The panel data conducted a comparative analysis and used panel least squares, regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors of fixed effect, random effect, feasible generalised least squares and maximum likelihood robust least squares to overcome the heterogeneity issue. Furthermore, the two-step difference generalised method of moments to overcome the endogeneity issue. Diagnostic tests were used to increase robustness.

Findings

In the studied countries, there was a statistically significant negative relationship between received remittance inflows and the price-level ratio of the purchasing power parity conversion factor to the market exchange rate. This relationship explains why remittance flows depreciate the real exchange rate. The study’s results also indicated that attracting investments can improve the quality of institutions despite high tax rates, leading to low tax revenue.

Originality/value

The current study findings enrich the understanding of policies of how governments should minimise tariff rates on capital imports and introduce export-oriented incentive programmes. The study also revealed that Dutch disease can occur due to differences in the demand structure and manufacturing development policy.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 February 2023

Siti Hafsah Zulkarnain and Abdol Samad Nawi

The purpose of this study is to analyse numerous aspects affecting residential property price in Malaysia against macroeconomics issues such as gross domestic product (GDP)…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyse numerous aspects affecting residential property price in Malaysia against macroeconomics issues such as gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate, unemployment and wage.

Design/methodology/approach

The hedonic pricing model has been adopted as econometric model for this research to investigate the relationship between residential property price against macroeconomics indicator. The data for residential property price and macroeconomic variables were collected from 1991 to 2019. Multiple linear regression had been adopted to find the relationship between the dependent and independent variables.

Findings

The result shows that the GDP has a significant positive impact on residential property price, while exchange rate has no significant impact although it was positive. In addition, the unemployment rate has a significant impact on the residential property price and has a negative relationship. Similar to the wage that shows the negative relationship with residential property prices. Moreover, during the pandemic COVID-19 in Malaysia, this research shows a more transparent view of the relationship between residential property price and the macroeconomic issues of GDP, exchange rate, unemployment and wage.

Originality/value

The findings of this research found that macroeconomics issue cannot be eliminated due to Malaysia is a developing country, and there will always be an issue that will happen, but the issues can be reduced to maximise the advantages, e.g. during COVID-19, the solution to fight against COVID-19 were crucial and weaken the macroeconomics issues.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 November 2022

Ahmet Gökçe Akpolat

This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and housing sales on the real housing prices.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model in the monthly period of 2010:1–2021:10.

Findings

The real effective exchange rate has a positive and symmetric effect. The decreasing effect of negative changes in real money supply on real housing prices is higher than the increasing effect of positive changes. Only positive changes in the real construction cost index have an increasing and statistically significant effect on real house prices, while only negative changes in housing sales have a small negative sign and a small increasing effect on housing prices. The fact that the positive and negative changes in real mortgage rates are negative and positive, respectively, indicates that both have a reducing effect on real housing prices.

Originality/value

This study suggests the first NARDL model that investigates the asymmetric effects on real housing prices instead of nominal housing prices for Turkey. In addition, the study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to examine the effects of the five real variables on real housing prices.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 December 2022

Opeoluwa Adeniyi Adeosun, Mosab I. Tabash and Xuan Vinh Vo

This paper aims to accommodate the influence of both economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks in the relationship between oil price and exchange-rate returns in the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to accommodate the influence of both economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks in the relationship between oil price and exchange-rate returns in the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) countries through an interaction term (EPGR).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use continuous wavelet transform (CWT), wavelet coherence (WC) and partial wavelet coherence (PWC). First, the authors apply the CWT to examine the evolution of oil prices, EPGR and exchange rate returns. Second, the authors use WC to investigate the relationship between oil price and exchange rate returns (excluding EPGR). Third, the authors use PWC to account for EPGR’s impact on the oil exchange rate returns dynamics and explore partial correlations in the oil and exchange rate returns dynamics.

Findings

The empirical results generally show that EPGR is a key driver in the oil and exchange rate returns nexus.

Practical implications

The relevance of EPGR in influencing exchange rate volatility is confirmed by the findings. As a result, it is critical for government officials and foreign exchange investors to use EPGR as a leading indicator when establishing foreign exchange trading strategies and economic forecasts.

Originality/value

This study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to apply a wavelet-based technique to account for EPGR in the relationship between oil and exchange rate returns in the BRICS countries.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 17 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 November 2023

Izabela Pruchnicka-Grabias, Iwona Piekunko-Mantiuk and Scott W. Hegerty

The Polish economy has undergone major challenges and changes over the past few decades. The country's trade flows, in particular, have become more firmly tied to the country’s…

Abstract

Purpose

The Polish economy has undergone major challenges and changes over the past few decades. The country's trade flows, in particular, have become more firmly tied to the country’s Western neighbors as they have grown in volume. This study examines Poland's trade balances in ten Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) sectors versus the United States of America, first testing for and isolating structural breaks in each time series. These breaks are then included in a set of the cointegration models to examine their macroeconomic determinants.

Design/methodology/approach

Linear and nonlinear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models, both with and without dummies corresponding to structural breaks, are estimated.

Findings

One key finding is that incorporating these breaks reduces the significance of the real exchange rate in the model, supporting the hypothesis that this variable already incorporates important information. It also results in weaker evidence for cointegration of all variables in certain sectors.

Research limitations/implications

This study looks only at one pair of countries, without any third-country effects.

Originality/value

An important country pair's trade relations is examined; in addition, the real exchange rate is shown to incorporate economic information that results in structural changes in the economy. The paper extends the existing literature by conducting an analysis of Poland's trade balances with the USA, which have not been studied in such a context so far. A strong point is a broad methodology that lets compare the results the authors obtained with different kinds of models, both linear and nonlinear ones, with and without structural breaks.

Details

Central European Management Journal, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2658-0845

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 June 2023

Masagus M. Ridhwan, Affandi Ismail and Peter Nijkamp

Empirical studies regarding the impact of the real exchange rate (RER) on economic growth are extensively available. However, the literature as a whole appears to report varying…

Abstract

Purpose

Empirical studies regarding the impact of the real exchange rate (RER) on economic growth are extensively available. However, the literature as a whole appears to report varying results, while the causes of such differences have not been analyzed systematically. The present study aims to fill the gap in the literature.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the authors compile 543 empirical estimates from 51 studies of the exchange rate-growth nexus in order to meta-analyze its relationship. Meta-analysis allows the authors to quantitatively synthesize previous empirical studies and explain the variation in the results. This method also enables us to investigate the possibility of publication bias, as there is a tendency in research only to report results that are both statistically significant and show the expected signs.

Findings

After addressing publication bias and heterogeneity in the estimates, the meta-regression results show that RER depreciation (or undervaluation) genuinely favors economic growth. On average, RER depreciation has a greater impact on economic growth in developing countries than the developed ones. The study’s results imply that maintaining an undervalued RER could be favorable to spur economic growth, especially in developing countries.

Originality/value

Initially predominant in the medical literature, meta-analysis has been on a rising edge in economics. This progress has produced many systematic quantitative review analyses with continuously improved statistical-econometric practices related to economic variables. However, to the authors’ knowledge, no comprehensive meta-regression analysis of the relationship between exchange rate and economic growth has been conducted and published in any publicly accessible academic outlet. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap in the literature.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

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