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Article
Publication date: 8 February 2023

Siti Hafsah Zulkarnain and Abdol Samad Nawi

The purpose of this study is to analyse numerous aspects affecting residential property price in Malaysia against macroeconomics issues such as gross domestic product (GDP)…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyse numerous aspects affecting residential property price in Malaysia against macroeconomics issues such as gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate, unemployment and wage.

Design/methodology/approach

The hedonic pricing model has been adopted as econometric model for this research to investigate the relationship between residential property price against macroeconomics indicator. The data for residential property price and macroeconomic variables were collected from 1991 to 2019. Multiple linear regression had been adopted to find the relationship between the dependent and independent variables.

Findings

The result shows that the GDP has a significant positive impact on residential property price, while exchange rate has no significant impact although it was positive. In addition, the unemployment rate has a significant impact on the residential property price and has a negative relationship. Similar to the wage that shows the negative relationship with residential property prices. Moreover, during the pandemic COVID-19 in Malaysia, this research shows a more transparent view of the relationship between residential property price and the macroeconomic issues of GDP, exchange rate, unemployment and wage.

Originality/value

The findings of this research found that macroeconomics issue cannot be eliminated due to Malaysia is a developing country, and there will always be an issue that will happen, but the issues can be reduced to maximise the advantages, e.g. during COVID-19, the solution to fight against COVID-19 were crucial and weaken the macroeconomics issues.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 November 2022

Ahmet Gökçe Akpolat

This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and housing sales on the real housing prices.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model in the monthly period of 2010:1–2021:10.

Findings

The real effective exchange rate has a positive and symmetric effect. The decreasing effect of negative changes in real money supply on real housing prices is higher than the increasing effect of positive changes. Only positive changes in the real construction cost index have an increasing and statistically significant effect on real house prices, while only negative changes in housing sales have a small negative sign and a small increasing effect on housing prices. The fact that the positive and negative changes in real mortgage rates are negative and positive, respectively, indicates that both have a reducing effect on real housing prices.

Originality/value

This study suggests the first NARDL model that investigates the asymmetric effects on real housing prices instead of nominal housing prices for Turkey. In addition, the study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to examine the effects of the five real variables on real housing prices.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 November 2023

Izabela Pruchnicka-Grabias, Iwona Piekunko-Mantiuk and Scott W. Hegerty

The Polish economy has undergone major challenges and changes over the past few decades. The country's trade flows, in particular, have become more firmly tied to the country’s…

Abstract

Purpose

The Polish economy has undergone major challenges and changes over the past few decades. The country's trade flows, in particular, have become more firmly tied to the country’s Western neighbors as they have grown in volume. This study examines Poland's trade balances in ten Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) sectors versus the United States of America, first testing for and isolating structural breaks in each time series. These breaks are then included in a set of the cointegration models to examine their macroeconomic determinants.

Design/methodology/approach

Linear and nonlinear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models, both with and without dummies corresponding to structural breaks, are estimated.

Findings

One key finding is that incorporating these breaks reduces the significance of the real exchange rate in the model, supporting the hypothesis that this variable already incorporates important information. It also results in weaker evidence for cointegration of all variables in certain sectors.

Research limitations/implications

This study looks only at one pair of countries, without any third-country effects.

Originality/value

An important country pair's trade relations is examined; in addition, the real exchange rate is shown to incorporate economic information that results in structural changes in the economy. The paper extends the existing literature by conducting an analysis of Poland's trade balances with the USA, which have not been studied in such a context so far. A strong point is a broad methodology that lets compare the results the authors obtained with different kinds of models, both linear and nonlinear ones, with and without structural breaks.

Details

Central European Management Journal, vol. 32 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2658-0845

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 June 2023

Masagus M. Ridhwan, Affandi Ismail and Peter Nijkamp

Empirical studies regarding the impact of the real exchange rate (RER) on economic growth are extensively available. However, the literature as a whole appears to report varying…

Abstract

Purpose

Empirical studies regarding the impact of the real exchange rate (RER) on economic growth are extensively available. However, the literature as a whole appears to report varying results, while the causes of such differences have not been analyzed systematically. The present study aims to fill the gap in the literature.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the authors compile 543 empirical estimates from 51 studies of the exchange rate-growth nexus in order to meta-analyze its relationship. Meta-analysis allows the authors to quantitatively synthesize previous empirical studies and explain the variation in the results. This method also enables us to investigate the possibility of publication bias, as there is a tendency in research only to report results that are both statistically significant and show the expected signs.

Findings

After addressing publication bias and heterogeneity in the estimates, the meta-regression results show that RER depreciation (or undervaluation) genuinely favors economic growth. On average, RER depreciation has a greater impact on economic growth in developing countries than the developed ones. The study’s results imply that maintaining an undervalued RER could be favorable to spur economic growth, especially in developing countries.

Originality/value

Initially predominant in the medical literature, meta-analysis has been on a rising edge in economics. This progress has produced many systematic quantitative review analyses with continuously improved statistical-econometric practices related to economic variables. However, to the authors’ knowledge, no comprehensive meta-regression analysis of the relationship between exchange rate and economic growth has been conducted and published in any publicly accessible academic outlet. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap in the literature.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 June 2022

Omer Cayirli, Koray Kayalidere and Huseyin Aktas

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of changes in credit stock on real and financial indicators in Turkey with a focus on conditional and time-varying dynamics.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of changes in credit stock on real and financial indicators in Turkey with a focus on conditional and time-varying dynamics.

Design/methodology/approach

In addition to lag-augmented vector autoregression (LA-VAR) based time-varying Granger causality tests, threshold models and a research setting that identifies high/low states of credit growth based on 24-month moving averages are used to explore regime-dependent behavior. For investigating the asymmetric dynamics, the authors use a methodology that identifies good/bad news in credit growth based on 24-month moving averages and standard deviations.

Findings

Results strongly suggest that the impact of changes in credit stock induces conditional responses. Moreover, we find evidence for asymmetric responses. In the case of Turkey, efforts to spur growth through credit produce a strong negative byproduct, a depreciation in the exchange rate. The authors also find that changes in credit stock have become more relevant for uncertainties in inflation and exchange rate expectations, particularly in the era after mid-2018 in which credit growth volatility has increased noticeably.

Originality/value

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of time-varying and conditional responses to a change in credit stock in a major emerging economy. Using a moving threshold based only on the available information in the analysis of state-dependency represents a new approach.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 September 2023

Jueshuai Wang

This paper aims to enhance the Global Projection Model (GPM) developed by the International Monetary Fund by constructing a GPM4 model that includes the United States of America…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to enhance the Global Projection Model (GPM) developed by the International Monetary Fund by constructing a GPM4 model that includes the United States of America, the Eurozone, Japan and China.

Design/methodology/approach

This article introduces the United States of America, the Eurozone, Japan and China into a comprehensive global forecasting model, analyzing the impact of liquidity management in G3 economies on nine key macroeconomic variables in China.

Findings

The findings reveal that the liquidity management strategies employed by major economies do exert a certain influence on China's major macroeconomic variables. Different types of liquidity shocks elicit varying effects. Monetary shocks exhibit the strongest instantaneous impact, while credit conditions and policy rate shocks contribute more significantly to China's long-term macroeconomic fluctuations. However, no single shock stands out as the dominant factor.

Originality/value

This paper attempts to expand the GPM model developed by the International Monetary Fund and build a GPM4 model including China, the United States of America, the Eurozone and Japan. For the first time, the GPM model was used to analyze the spillover effects of liquidity management in major economies on China's macroeconomy and revealed the impact of non-price factors such as credit conditions on China's macroeconomic variables.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 53 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 December 2023

Robert Mwanyepedza and Syden Mishi

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary…

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to estimate the short- and long-run effects of monetary policy on residential property prices in South Africa. Over the past decades, there has been a monetary policy shift, from targeting money supply and exchange rate to inflation. The shifts have affected residential property market dynamics.

Design/methodology/approach

The Johansen cointegration approach was used to estimate the effects of changes in monetary policy proxies on residential property prices using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022.

Findings

Mortgage finance and economic growth have a significant positive long-run effect on residential property prices. The consumer price index, the inflation targeting framework, interest rates and exchange rates have a significant negative long-run effect on residential property prices. The Granger causality test has depicted that exchange rate significantly influences residential property prices in the short run, and interest rates, inflation targeting framework, gross domestic product, money supply consumer price index and exchange rate can quickly return to equilibrium when they are in disequilibrium.

Originality/value

There are limited arguments whether the inflation targeting monetary policy framework in South Africa has prevented residential property market boom and bust scenarios. The study has found that the implementation of inflation targeting framework has successfully reduced booms in residential property prices in South Africa.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 6 May 2024

Channoufi Sabrine

This chapter examines the influence of external public borrowing resources on economic progress in Tunisia. The study focuses on two stages: First, the influence is studied in a…

Abstract

This chapter examines the influence of external public borrowing resources on economic progress in Tunisia. The study focuses on two stages: First, the influence is studied in a direct sense and then in an indirect sense, i.e., through a transmission channel of this influence. By applying the autoregressive distributed technique with staggered lags (ARDL), over a period ranging from 1986 to 2019, the results showed that the influence of external borrowing resources on growth seems to be unfavorable in the short term but positive in the long term, hence the importance of the empirical technique chosen. Second, three interaction variables were tested, namely total government expenditure, government investment expenditure, and the real effective exchange rate. The results obtained call for better attention to the channels identified to maximize the positive influence of external public debt on the country's economic progress.

Details

The Emerald Handbook of Ethical Finance and Corporate Social Responsibility
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80455-406-7

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 14 March 2024

Ivan D. Trofimov

In this paper we examine the validity of the J-curve hypothesis in four Southeast Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the 1980–2017 period.

Abstract

Purpose

In this paper we examine the validity of the J-curve hypothesis in four Southeast Asian economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand) over the 1980–2017 period.

Design/methodology/approach

We employ the linear autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model that captures the dynamic relationships between the variables and additionally use the nonlinear ARDL model that considers the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate changes.

Findings

The estimated models were diagnostically sound, and the variables were found to be cointegrated. However, with the exception of Malaysia, the short- and long-run relationships did not attest to the presence of the J-curve effect. The trade flows were affected asymmetrically in Malaysia and the Philippines, suggesting the appropriateness of nonlinear ARDL in these countries.

Originality/value

The previous research tended to examine the effects of the real exchange rate changes on the agricultural trade balance and specifically the J-curve effect (deterioration of the trade balance followed by its improvement) in the developed economies and rarely in the developing ones. In this paper, we address this omission.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 8 April 2024

Daniel Stavárek and Michal Tvrdoň

Czechia is a small open economy and a member state of the European Union. Several important trends and episodes that have determined economic growth can be identified over the…

Abstract

Czechia is a small open economy and a member state of the European Union. Several important trends and episodes that have determined economic growth can be identified over the last two decades. This chapter deals with some macroeconomic features like macroeconomic and labour market performance within the business cycle, the Czech National Bank (CNB) exchange rate commitment and interest rate policy, increasing indebtedness and budget deficits, foreign trade and the international investment position. We applied publicly available data from Eurostat, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and CNB databases. The data show that the Czech economy was significantly converging to the average economic level of the European Union. We also identified key turning points in business cycles. Macroeconomic data on economic development of the economy indicate an atypical course of the business cycle between 2020 and 2022, which can be evaluated as different from the one that followed the global financial crisis.

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