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Article
Publication date: 22 May 2020

Mariusz Doszyń

The purpose of this paper is to present an algorithm of real estate mass appraisal in which the impact of attributes (real estate features) is estimated by inequality restricted…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present an algorithm of real estate mass appraisal in which the impact of attributes (real estate features) is estimated by inequality restricted least squares (IRLS) model.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper presents the algorithm of real estate mass appraisal, which was also presented in the form of an econometric model. Vital problem related to econometric models of mass appraisal is multicollinearity. In this paper, a priori knowledge about parameters is used by imposing restrictions in the form of inequalities. IRLS model is therefore used to limit negative consequences of multicollinearity. In ordinary least squares (OLS) models, estimator variances might be inflated by multicollinearity, which could lead to wrong signs of estimates. In IRLS models, estimators efficiency is higher (estimator variances are lower), which could result in better appraisals.

Findings

The final effect of the analysis is a vector of the impact of real estate attributes on their value in the mass appraisal algorithm. After making expert corrections, the algorithm was used to evaluate 318 properties from the test set. Valuation errors were also discussed.

Originality/value

Restrictions in the form of inequalities were imposed on the parameters of the econometric model, ensuring the non-negativity and monotonicity of real estate attribute impact. In case of real estate, variables are usually correlated. OLS estimators are then inflated and inefficient. Imposing restrictions in form of inequalities could improve results because IRLS estimators are more efficient. In the case of results inconsistent with theoretical assumptions, the real estate mass appraisal algorithm enables having the obtained results adjusted by an expert. This can be important for low quality databases, which is often the case in underdeveloped real estate markets. Another reason for expert correction may be the low efficiency of a given real estate market.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research , vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 December 2021

Krzysztof Dmytrów and Wojciech Kuźmiński

Our research aims in designation of a hybrid approach in the calibration of an attribute impact vector in order to guarantee its completeness in case when other approaches cannot…

Abstract

Purpose

Our research aims in designation of a hybrid approach in the calibration of an attribute impact vector in order to guarantee its completeness in case when other approaches cannot ensure this.

Design/methodology/approach

Real estate mass appraisal aims at valuating a large number of properties by means of a specialised algorithm. We can apply various methods for this purpose. We present the Szczecin Algorithm of Real Estate Mass Appraisal (SAREMA) and the four methods of calibration of an attribute impact vector. Eventually, we present its application on the example of 318 residential properties in Szczecin, Poland.

Findings

We compare the results of appraisals obtained with the application of the hybrid approach with the appraisals obtained for the three remaining ones. If the database is complete and reliable, the econometric and statistical approaches could be recommended because they are based on quantitative measures of relationships between the values of attributes and properties' unit values. However, when the database is incomplete, the expert and, subsequently, hybrid approaches are used as supplementary ones.

Originality/value

The application of the hybrid approach ensures that the calibration system of an attribute impact vector is always complete. This is because it incorporates the expert approach that can be used even if the database excludes application of approaches that are based on quantitative measures of relationship between the unit real estate value and the value of attributes.

Article
Publication date: 24 June 2021

Mariusz Doszyń

The purpose of this paper is to present how prior knowledge about the impact of real estate features on value might be utilised in the econometric models of real estate appraisal

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present how prior knowledge about the impact of real estate features on value might be utilised in the econometric models of real estate appraisal. In these models, price is a dependent variable and real estate features are explanatory variables. Moreover, these kinds of models might support individual and mass appraisals.

Design/methodology/approach

A mixed estimation procedure was discussed in the research. It enables using sample and prior information in an estimation process. Prior information was provided by real estate experts in the form of parameter intervals. Also, sample information about the prices and features of undeveloped land for low-residential purposes was used. Then, mixed estimation results were compared with ordinary least squares (OLS) outcomes. Finally, the estimated econometric models were assessed with regard to both formal criteria and valuation accuracy.

Findings

The OLS results were unacceptable, mostly because of the low quality of the database, which is often the case on local, undeveloped real estate markets. The mixed results are much more consistent with formal expectations and the real estate valuations are also better for a mixed model. In a mixed model, the impact of each real estate feature could be estimated, even if there is no variability in the sample information. Valuations are also more precise in terms of their consistency with market prices. The mean error (ME) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are lower for a mixed model.

Originality/value

The crucial problem in econometric property valuation is that it involves the unreliability of databases, especially on undeveloped, local markets. The applied mixed estimation procedure might support sample information with prior knowledge, in the form of stochastic restrictions imposed on parameters. Thus, that kind of knowledge might be obtained from real estate experts, practitioners, etc.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 14 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 July 2014

William J. McCluskey, Dzurllkanian Zulkarnain Daud and Norhaya Kamarudin

The purpose of this paper is to apply boosted regression trees (BRT) to a heterogeneous data set of residential property drawn from a jurisdiction in Malaysia, with the objective…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to apply boosted regression trees (BRT) to a heterogeneous data set of residential property drawn from a jurisdiction in Malaysia, with the objective to evaluate its application within the mass appraisal environment in Malaysia. Machine learning (ML) techniques have been applied to real estate mass appraisal with varying degrees of success.

Design/methodology/approach

To evaluate the performance of the BRT model two multiple regression analysis (MRA) models have been specified (linear and non-linear). One of the weaknesses of traditional regression is the need to a priori specify the functional form of the model and to ensure that all non-linearities have been accounted for. For a BRT model the algorithm does not require any predetermined model or variable transformations, making the process much simpler.

Findings

The results show that the BRT model outperformed the MRA-specified models in terms of the coefficient of dispersion and mean absolute percentage error. While the results are encouraging, BRT models still lack transparency and suffer from the inability to translate variable importance into quantifiable variable effects.

Practical implications

This paper presents a useful alternative modelling technique, BRT, for use within the mass appraisal environment in Malaysia. Its advantages include less intensive data cleansing, no requirement to specify the predictive underlying model, ability to utilise categorical variables without the need to transform them and not as data hungry, as for example, MRA.

Originality/value

This paper adds to the knowledge in this area by applying a relatively new ML model, BRT to residential property data from a jurisdiction in Malaysia. BRT has shown promise as a strong predictive model when applied in other disciplines; therefore this research empirically tests this finding within real estate valuation.

Details

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1366-4387

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 July 2011

John Kilpatrick

The purpose of this paper is to examine the usefulness of a heuristic expert system, to show its applicability to real‐world valuation problems, and to suggest several avenues for…

1064

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the usefulness of a heuristic expert system, to show its applicability to real‐world valuation problems, and to suggest several avenues for statistical testing.

Design/methodology/approach

The expert systems follow a traditional sales adjustment grid format, with sufficient data for non‐parametric testing.

Findings

The paper finds that, while non‐parametric statistics provide weaker results than traditional (e.g. hedonic regression) modeling, the technique provides a statistically testable model useful in situations with limited data and/or poorly characterized probability functions.

Practical implications

This paper addresses the conundrum faced by real estate valuers on the lack of statistical underpinnings of traditional heuristic models.

Originality/value

This is one of the first empirical studies in the valuation literature exploring statistical characterization of heuristic valuation methods.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 29 no. 4/5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 July 2018

Francesco Tajani, Pierluigi Morano and Klimis Ntalianis

As regards the assessment of the market values of properties that compose real estate portfolios, the purpose of this paper is to propose and test an automated valuation model. In…

1306

Abstract

Purpose

As regards the assessment of the market values of properties that compose real estate portfolios, the purpose of this paper is to propose and test an automated valuation model. In particular, the method defined allows for providing for objective, reliable and “quick” valuations of the assets in the phases of periodic reviews of the property values.

Design/methodology/approach

Aiming at both predictive and interpretative purposes, the method, based on multi-objective genetic algorithms to search those model expressions that simultaneously maximize the accuracy of the data and the parsimony of the mathematical functions, is applied to a sample data of office properties characterized by medium and large size, located in the city of Milan (Italy) and sold in the period between 2004 and 2015.

Findings

The model obtained could be an integration of the canonical methodologies (market approach, income approach, cost approach) implemented in the assessment of the market values of properties, so as to provide an additional tool to verify the results. In particular, the inclusion of economic variables in the model is consistent with the need to reiterate the valuations, contextualizing them to the locational characteristics and to the current property cycle phase in the specific area.

Practical implications

The model can be applied by all the operators involved in the periodic reviews of the values of property portfolios: from real estate funds’ insiders, in order to monitor the values obtained through the canonical approaches, to the public institutions, such as the revenue agencies, in order to ensure the fair payment of the taxes through the updating values of the properties according to the actual and current market trends.

Originality/value

The method proposed can be a valid support for all public and private entities that hold significant property assets and that, for various reasons (periodic reviews of the balance sheets, sales, enhancement, investment, etc.), require cyclical updated values of the properties. The automated valuation model developed can be used for the assessment of “comparison” values with the estimates values obtained by other assessment techniques, in order to ensure a further monitoring tool of the results from the subjects involved.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 36 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 November 2012

William McCluskey, Peadar Davis, Martin Haran, Michael McCord and David McIlhatton

The aim of this paper is to investigate the comparative performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) and several multiple regression techniques in terms of their predictive…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to investigate the comparative performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) and several multiple regression techniques in terms of their predictive accuracy and capability of being used within the mass appraisal industry.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology first tested that the data set had neglected non‐linearity which suggested that a non‐linear modelling technique should be applied. Given the capability of ANNs to model non‐linear data, this technique was used along with an OLS regression model (baseline model) and two non‐linear multiple regression techniques. In addition, the models were evaluated in terms of predictive accuracy and their capability of use within the mass appraisal environment.

Findings

Previous studies which have compared the predictive performance of an ANN model against multiple regression techniques are inconclusive. Having superior predictive capability is important but equally important is whether the technique can be successfully employed for the mass appraisal of residential property. This research found that a non‐linear regression model had higher predictive accuracy than the ANN. Also the output of the ANN was not sufficiently transparent to provide an unambiguous appraisal model upon which predicted values could be defended against objections.

Research limitations/implications

The research provides an informative view as to the efficacy of ANN methodology within the real estate field. A number of issues have been raised on the applicability of ANN models within the mass appraisal environment.

Practical implications

This work demonstrates that ANNs whilst useful as a predictive tool have a limited practical role for the assessment of residential property values for property tax purposes.

Originality/value

The work has taken forward the debate on the usefulness of ANN techniques within the mass appraisal environment.

Details

Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1366-4387

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 March 2016

Richard Grover

– The purpose of this paper is to review the issues involved in the implementation of mass valuation systems and the conditions needed for doing so.

1166

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to review the issues involved in the implementation of mass valuation systems and the conditions needed for doing so.

Design/methodology/approach

The method makes use of case studies of and fieldwork in countries that have either recently introduced mass valuations, brought about major changes in their systems or have been working towards introducing mass valuations.

Findings

Mass valuation depends upon a degree of development and transparency in property markets and an institutional structure capable of collecting and maintaining up-to-date price data and attributes of properties. Countries introducing mass valuation may need to undertake work on improving the institutional basis for this as a pre-condition for successful implementation of mass valuation.

Practical implications

Although much of the literature is concerned with how to improve the statistical modelling of market prices, there are significant issues concerned with the type and quality of the data used in mass valuation models and the requirements for successful use of mass valuations.

Originality/value

Much of the literature on mass valuation takes the form of the development of statistical models of value. There has been much less attention given to the issues involved in the implementation of mass valuation.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 34 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 October 2017

Rotimi Boluwatife Abidoye and Albert P.C. Chan

The predictive accuracy and reliability of artificial intelligence models, such as the artificial neural network (ANN), has led to its application in property valuation studies…

2319

Abstract

Purpose

The predictive accuracy and reliability of artificial intelligence models, such as the artificial neural network (ANN), has led to its application in property valuation studies. However, a large percentage of such previous studies have focused on the property markets in developed economies, and at the same time, effort has not been put into documenting its research trend in the real estate domain. The purpose of this paper is to critically review the studies that adopted ANN for property valuation in order to present an application guide for researchers and practitioners, and also establish the trend in this research area.

Design/methodology/approach

Relevant articles were retrieved from online databases and search engines and were systematically analyzed. First, the background, the construction and the strengths and weaknesses of the technique were highlighted. In addition, the trend in this research area was established in terms of the country of origin of the articles, the year of publication, the affiliations of the authors, the sample size of the data, the number of the variables used to develop the models, the training and testing ratio, the model architecture and the software used to develop the models.

Findings

The analysis of the retrieved articles shows that the first study that applied ANN in property valuation was published in 1991. Thereafter, the technique received more attention from 2000. While a quarter of the articles reviewed emanated from the USA, the rest were conducted in mostly developed countries. Most of the studies were conducted by universities scholars, while very few industry practitioners participated in the research works. Also, the predictive accuracy of the ANN technique was reported in most of the papers reviewed, but a few reported otherwise.

Research limitations/implications

The articles that are not indexed in the search engines and databases searched and also not available in the public domain might not have been captured in this study.

Practical implications

The findings of this study reveal a gap between the valuation practice in developed and developing property markets and also the contributions of real estate practitioners and universities scholars to real estate research. A paradigm shift in the valuation practice in developing nations could lead to achieving a sustainable international valuation practice.

Originality/value

This paper presents the trend in this research area that could be useful to real estate researchers and practitioners in different property markets around the world. The findings of this study could also encourage collaboration between industry professionals and researchers domiciled in both developed and developing countries.

Details

Property Management, vol. 35 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 6 January 2023

Temidayo Oluwasola Osunsanmi, Timothy O. Olawumi, Andrew Smith, Suha Jaradat, Clinton Aigbavboa, John Aliu, Ayodeji Oke, Oluwaseyi Ajayi and Opeyemi Oyeyipo

The study aims to develop a model that supports the application of data science techniques for real estate professionals in the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) era. The present…

366

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to develop a model that supports the application of data science techniques for real estate professionals in the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) era. The present 4IR era gave birth to big data sets and is beyond real estate professionals' analysis techniques. This has led to a situation where most real estate professionals rely on their intuition while neglecting a rigorous analysis for real estate investment appraisals. The heavy reliance on their intuition has been responsible for the under-performance of real estate investment, especially in Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

This study utilised a survey questionnaire to randomly source data from real estate professionals. The questionnaire was analysed using a combination of Statistical package for social science (SPSS) V24 and Analysis of a Moment Structures (AMOS) graphics V27 software. Exploratory factor analysis was employed to break down the variables (drivers) into meaningful dimensions helpful in developing the conceptual framework. The framework was validated using covariance-based structural equation modelling. The model was validated using fit indices like discriminant validity, standardised root mean square (SRMR), comparative fit index (CFI), Normed Fit Index (NFI), etc.

Findings

The model revealed that an inclusive educational system, decentralised real estate market and data management system are the major drivers for applying data science techniques to real estate professionals. Also, real estate professionals' application of the drivers will guarantee an effective data analysis of real estate investments.

Originality/value

Numerous studies have clamoured for adopting data science techniques for real estate professionals. There is a lack of studies on the drivers that will guarantee the successful adoption of data science techniques. A modern form of data analysis for real estate professionals was also proposed in the study.

Details

Property Management, vol. 42 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

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