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Article
Publication date: 3 July 2007

Kim Hiang Liow

The paper seeks to examine cycles and common cycles in the real estate markets of the UK, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia using a combination of time domain and…

Abstract

Purpose

The paper seeks to examine cycles and common cycles in the real estate markets of the UK, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia using a combination of time domain and frequency domain methods.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper identifies the patterns of cyclical movement (if any) in the five public real estate markets, and searches for common cycle characteristics and patterns in international real estate markets. In addition to the time domain analyses, these empirical investigations are further empowered by a frequency domain method that includes spectral and co‐spectral analyses.

Findings

International real estate markets are characterized by cyclical behavior that exhibits phenomenal fluctuations. The markets are also pro‐cyclical; they do tend to move together. Furthermore, some differences in the patterns of the common cycles and their lead‐lag linkages are evident.

Research limitations/implications

International investors would probably benefit from diversifying real estate stocks across the UK and Asian real estate markets, especially in the short and medium terms. However, the long‐term cyclical patterns across the national real estate stock markets are not sharply different, indicating that smaller diversification benefits are to be expected in the long term.

Originality/value

Common cycle analysis advances investors' understanding of the long‐term relationship and medium‐ and short‐term linkages across international real estate markets, thereby allowing investors and portfolio managers an opportunity to discern any contrasting cyclical patterns at all frequencies so as to assist in their portfolio decisions.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 3 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

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Article
Publication date: 1 August 2016

Kim Hiang Liow

This research aims to investigate whether and to what extent the co-movements of cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real

Abstract

Purpose

This research aims to investigate whether and to what extent the co-movements of cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles are linked across G7 from February 1990 to June 2014.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical approaches include correlation analysis on Hodrick–Prescott (HP) cycles, HP cycle return spillovers effects using Diebold and Yilmaz’s (2012) spillover index methodology, as well as Croux et al.’s (2001) dynamic correlation and cohesion methodology.

Findings

There are fairly strong cycle-return spillover effects between the cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles. The interactions among the cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles in G7 are less positively pronounced or exhibit counter-cyclical behavior at the traditional business cycle (medium-term) frequency band when “pure” stock market cycles are considered.

Research limitations/implications

The research is subject to the usual limitations concerning empirical research.

Practical implications

This study finds that real estate is an important factor in influencing the degree and behavior of the relationship between cross-country business cycles and cross-country stock market cycles in G7. It provides important empirical insights for portfolio investors to understand and forecast the differential benefits and pitfalls of portfolio diversification in the long-, medium- and short-cycle horizons, as well as for research studying the linkages between the real economy and financial sectors.

Originality/value

In adding to the existing body of knowledge concerning economic globalization and financial market interdependence, this study evaluates the linkages between business cycles, stock market cycles and public real estate market cycles cross G7 and adds to the academic real estate literature. Because public real estate market is a subset of stock market, our approach is to use an original stock market index, as well as a “pure” stock market index (with the influence of real estate market removed) to offer additional empirical insights from two key complementary perspectives.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 9 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

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Article
Publication date: 1 April 2014

Kim Hin/David Ho and Kwame Addae-Dapaah

The purpose of this paper is to help us understand the real estate cycle and offers an analysis using a vector auto regression (VAR) model. The authors study the key…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to help us understand the real estate cycle and offers an analysis using a vector auto regression (VAR) model. The authors study the key international cities of Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. The authors find four key outcomes. One, the real estate cycle is generally different from the underlying business cycle in local markets for the cities studies. Two, the real estate cycle is more exaggerated in the construction and development areas than in rents and vacancies. Three, the vacancy cycle tends to lead the rental cycle. And four, new construction completions tend to peak when vacancy is also peaking. The authors believe that future research should try to help understand the linkages that drive these outcomes. For example, are rigidities in the local permit and construction markets responsible for the link between construction peaks and vacancy peaks?

Design/methodology/approach

Real estate market cyclical dynamics and its estimation via VAR model offers an insightful set of practical and empirical models. It affirms a comprehensive theoretical underpinning for analysing the prime office and residential sectors of the capitol cities of Kuala Lumpur, Singapore and Hong Kong in the fast developing Asia region. Its unrestricted form also provides an effective and insightful way of modelling real estate market cyclical dynamics utilising only real estate market indicators, furnished by real estate market data providers.

Findings

The office rental VAR model for Singapore (SOR), KL (KOR) and HK (HOR) show good fits. In the HOR model, rents and vacancies are negatively signed and significant for certain lagged relationships with other variables and with rents themselves. The office CV VAR model for Singapore (SOCV), KL (KOCV) and HK (HOCV) show good fits. In the HOCV model, capital values (CVs) and initial yields are negatively signed and significant for certain lagged relationships with other variables and with CVs themselves. Impulse response functions specified for seven years to mirror a medium-term real estate market cycle “die out” to zero for the stationary VAR models that are estimated for the endogenous variables. The accumulated responses asymptote to some non-zero constant.

Practical implications

The VAR model offers a complete and meaningful dynamic system of solely real estate variables for international real estate investors and policy makers in decision making. Its unrestricted form offers an effective and insightful way of modelling real estate market cyclical dynamics utilising only real estate market indicators, which can be reliably provided by a dedicated real estate information and consultancy provider of international standing.

Originality/value

The theoretical model offers a complete dynamic model system of the real estate space market, comprising a unique system of six linked equations that denote the relationship among supply, demand, construction, vacancy and rent over time, inclusive of price response slopes and lags. The VAR model enables the investigation of the effect of the lagged values of all the variables concerned. It also enables the explicit and rigorous quantitative forecasts of say rents and CVs when the rest of the variable can be forecasted beforehand.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 10 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

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Article
Publication date: 7 August 2017

Maurizio d’Amato

This paper aims to propose a new valuation method for income producing properties. The model originally called cyclical dividend discount models (d’Amato, 2003) has been…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose a new valuation method for income producing properties. The model originally called cyclical dividend discount models (d’Amato, 2003) has been recently proposed as a family of income approach methodologies called cyclical capitalization (d’Amato, 2013; d’Amato, 2015; d’Amato, 2017).

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed methodology tries to integrate real estate market cycle analysis and forecast inside the valuation process allowing the appraiser to deal with real estate market phases analysis and their consequence in the local real estate market.

Findings

The findings consist in the creation of a methodology proposed for market value and in particular for mortgage lending determination, as the model may have the capability to reach prudent opinion of value in all the real estate market phase.

Research limitations/implications

Research limitation consists mainly in a limited number of sample of time series of rent and in the forecast of more than a cap rate or yield rate even if it is quite commonly accepted the cyclical nature of the real estate market.

Practical implications

The implication of the proposed methodology is a modified approach to direct capitalization finding more flexible approaches to appraise income producing properties sensitive to the upturn and downturn of the real estate market.

Social implications

The model proposed can be considered useful for the valuation process of those property affected by the property market cycle, both in the mortgage lending and market value determination.

Originality/value

These methodologies try to integrate in the appraisal process the role of property market cycles. Cyclical capitalization modelling includes in the traditional dividend discount model more than one g-factor to plot property market cycle dealing with the future in a different way. It must be stressed the countercyclical nature of the cyclical capitalization that may be helpful in the determination of mortgage lending value. This is a very important characteristic of such models.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 10 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

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Article
Publication date: 3 April 2017

Steven Laposa and Andrew Mueller

The purpose of this paper is twofold: the authors initially survey a sample of literature published after the Great Recession that address macroeconomic and commercial real

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is twofold: the authors initially survey a sample of literature published after the Great Recession that address macroeconomic and commercial real estate forecasting methods related to the Great Recession and compare significant lessons learned, or lack thereof. The authors then seek to identify new models to improve the predictability of commercial real estate early warning signals regarding cyclical turning points which result in negative appreciation rates.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors develop a probit model to estimate quarterly probabilities of negative office appreciation returns using an alternative methodology to Tsolaco et al. (2014). The authors’ alternative method incorporates generally publicly available macroeconomic and real estate variables such as gross domestic product, office-related employment sectors, cap rate spreads, and commercial mortgage flow of funds into a probit model in order to estimate the probability of future quarterly negative office appreciation rates.

Findings

The authors’ models demonstrate the predictive power of macroeconomic variables typically associated with office demand. The probit model specification shows probabilities of negative office appreciations rates greater than 50 percent either as the quarterly office returns become negative, or in some cases several quarters before office returns become negative, for both the Great Recession and the recession occurring in the early 1990s. The models fail to show probabilities greater than 50 percent of negative office returns until after they occur for the recession in 2001. While this indicates need for further improvement in early warning models, the models do predict the more severe periods of negative office returns in advance, indicating the findings useful to real estate investors to monitor the changes in economic and real estate data identified as statistically significant in the results.

Practical implications

The Great Recession is a unique laboratory of significant contractions, recessions, and recoveries that challenge pre-recessionary real estate cycle models. The models provide guidance on which historical economic indicators are important to track, and gives a framework with which to calculate the probability that office prices are likely to decline. Because the models use macroeconomic indicators that are publicly available from at least one quarter in the past, the models or variations of them may provide real estate professionals with some indication of an impending decrease in office prices, even if that indication comes only one quarter in advance. Armed with this information, property owners, investors, and brokers can make more informed decisions on whether to buy or sell, and how sensitive their real estate transactions may be to timing.

Originality/value

The authors introduce several new models that examine the ability of historical macroeconomic indicators to provide early warning signals and identify turning points in real estate valuations, specifically negative office appreciation rates caused by the Great Recession. Using data from at least one quarter in the past, all the data in the models are publicly available (excluding National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries data) at the observed return quarter being predicted, which gives practitioners rational insights that can provide at least one source of guidance about the likelihood of an impending decrease in office prices.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 35 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

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Article
Publication date: 15 February 2019

Alexander T. Hanisch

Real estate is the last major asset class without liquid derivatives markets. The reasons for that are not fully known or understood. Therefore, the purpose of this paper…

Abstract

Purpose

Real estate is the last major asset class without liquid derivatives markets. The reasons for that are not fully known or understood. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to better understand the main factors that influence the propensity of commercial real estate investors in the UK to employ property derivatives.

Design/methodology/approach

The research methodology that was chosen for this research is grounded theory which, in its original form, goes back to Glaser and Strauss (1967). A total of 43 interviews were conducted with 46 real estate professionals in the UK from property investment management firms (investing directly or indirectly in real estate), multi-asset management firms, real estate investment trusts, banks, and brokerage and advisory firms, among others.

Findings

The research results show 29 factors that influence the propensity of direct and indirect real estate investors in the UK to employ property derivatives. Out of the 29 factors, the current research identified 12 factors with high-explanatory power, 6 with a contributing role and 11 with low explanatory power. Moreover, factors previously discussed in the literature are tested and assessed as to their explanatory power. The focus of this paper is on those factors with high-explanatory power. From the research data, three main reasons have been identified as the sources of investor reluctance to trade in property derivatives. The first and main reason is related to a mismatch between motivations of property investment managers and what can be achieved with the instruments. The second reason, which ties in with the first one, is a general misunderstanding as to the right pricing technique of property derivatives. Finally, the third reason is a general lack of hedging demand from the investor base owing to the long investment horizons through market cycles.

Research limitations/implications

The research contributes to the literature on property derivatives in various ways. First, it extends the literature on market hurdles in property derivatives markets by testing and extending the hurdles that were proposed previously. Second, the research shows that the existing pricing models need to be extended in order to account for the risk perception of practitioners and their concerns with regard to liquidity levels.

Practical implications

For both theory and practice, the research has shown some limitations in using property derivatives for purposes such as creating index exposure or hedging. Another contribution, in this case to practice, is that this study provides a clearer picture as to the reasons that keep property investment managers away from using property derivatives.

Originality/value

The research results indicate that liquidity per se is not a universal remedy for the problems in the market. In addition to the need for improving the understanding of the pricing mechanism, practitioners should give more thought to the notion of real estate market risk and the commensurate returns that can reasonably be expected when they take or reduce it. This implies that property index futures currently do not price like those on any other investable asset class.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 37 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

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Article
Publication date: 21 March 2019

Hilde Remøy, Sander Rovers and Ilir Nase

The purpose of this paper is to develop an operational framework with guidelines and lessons to improve the current real estate portfolio disposal procedures of freeholds…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop an operational framework with guidelines and lessons to improve the current real estate portfolio disposal procedures of freeholds, based on empirical evidence from the banking sector.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical research is based on a comparative analysis of four case studies, representing approximately 80 per cent of the Dutch banking sector. The case studies comprise a systematic document review of corporate business and real estate strategies and semi-structured interviews with decision makers who steer the organisation’s corporate real estate (CRE) portfolio composition.

Findings

This research shows a strong relationship between organisation characteristics, legacy and strategy, disposal drivers and CRE disposal strategies. The weighing of drivers and order of steps in strategy execution strategies largely depend on organisational objectives.

Research limitations/implications

This paper reports empirical findings from Dutch case studies. To generalise, further research is needed in different legal, financial and economic contexts and in other sectors. This paper suggests a more thorough study of the relationship between space-use efficiency and technological innovation implementation..

Practical implications

The framework proposes strategy improvements and a proactive approach to corporate real estate management (CREM) to create value through real estate portfolios.

Originality/value

This paper provides a thorough analysis of the CREM of the Dutch banking sector and is applicable to CREM in this and other sectors.

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Article
Publication date: 9 January 2019

KimHiang Liow, Xiaoxia Zhou, Qiang Li and Yuting Huang

The purpose of this paper is to revisit the dynamic linkages between the US and the national securitized real estate markets of each of the nine Asian-Pacific (APAC…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to revisit the dynamic linkages between the US and the national securitized real estate markets of each of the nine Asian-Pacific (APAC) economies in time-frequency domain.

Design/methodology/approach

Wavelet decomposition via multi-resolution analysis is employed as an empirical methodology to consider time-scale issue in studying the dynamic changes of the US–APAC cross-real estate interdependence.

Findings

The strength and direction of return correlation, return exogeneity, shock impulse response, market connectivity and causality interactions change when specific time-scales are involved. The US market correlates with the APAC markets weakly or moderately in the three investment horizons with increasing strength of lead-lag interdependence in the long-run. Moreover, there are shifts in the net total directional volatility connectivity effects at the five scales among the markets.

Research limitations/implications

Given the focus of the five approaches and associated indicators, the picture that emerges from the empirical results may not completely uniform. However, long-term investors and financial institutions should evaluate the time-scale based dynamics to derive a well-informed portfolio decision.

Practical implications

Future research is needed to ascertain whether the time-frequency findings can be generalizable to the regional and global context. Additional studies are required to identify the factors that contribute to the changes in the global and regional connectivity across the markets over the three investment horizons.

Originality/value

This study has successfully decomposed the various market linkage indicators into scale-dependent sub-components. As such, market integration in the Asia-Pacific real estate markets is a “multi-scale” phenomenon.

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Article
Publication date: 28 January 2014

Ilias Lekkos, Irini Staggel, Konstantinos Kefalas and Paraskevi Vlachou

– The aim of the paper is to discuss developments in non-residential real estate in Greece.

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of the paper is to discuss developments in non-residential real estate in Greece.

Design/methodology/approach

Given the lack of existing literature, the authors start by discussing at length the data sources available, and analyzing the stylized facts of non-residential real estate activity in Greece. Finally, the authors examine the degree of covariation (using the index of concordance methodology) between non-residential real estate and the business cycle.

Findings

The results indicate that the structure of non-residential sector is highly fragmented into various sub-categories and at the initial stages of its developments, it was strongly affected by the preparations for the 2004 Athens Olympic Games. Finally, despite its small share of total GDP, non-residential real estate exhibits a significant degree of covariation with the business cycle.

Practical implications

The extracted information may be a useful resource for those interested in the developments in non-residential real estate in Greece and the covariation of key variables with the business cycle.

Originality/value

The paper constitutes a systematic research approach for the role of non-residential real estate in the Greek economic activity.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 32 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

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Article
Publication date: 13 March 2007

Kim Hin (David) Ho

The paper aims to form system dynamics modeling in introduced in conjunction with econometric analysis and planned scenario analysis which will uniquely structure the…

Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to form system dynamics modeling in introduced in conjunction with econometric analysis and planned scenario analysis which will uniquely structure the process whereby the ex ante capital values of the prime retail real estate sector.

Design/methodology/approach

The integrated system dynamics model investigates the structural factors affecting a unique expectation‐centered capital value (CV) formation of the prime retail real estate sector, through system dynamics modeling, econometric analysis , and the analysis of planned scenarios. This model extends beyond the usual lags and time line aspect of the price discovery process. The retail real estate sector is investigated within the Singapore context, as this sector changes dynamically and non‐linearly in relation to rental, cost and general demand expectations and to exogenous shocks like the Severe Advanced Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak. These macroeconomic factors are introduced to investigate their impact on retail space CVs through sensitivity analysis, during the simulation period of 20 quarters from the zero reference quarter (2Q2002).

Findings

The paper finds that simulation runs of the expectations‐centered system dynamics model are based on three scenarios. Sensitivity analysis is conducted for each scenario. Optimistic scenarios' CVs are lower than those of the likely scenario, owing to developers forming excessively high expectations that cannot be met by the actual rental levels. Pessimistic scenarios' CVs are highest. Based on bounded logic and the conditions for all scenarios, there are huge differences in expectations resulting in a large disparity in the endogenous CVs. Low actual rents are primarily due to poor informational efficiency, as the prime retail real estate sector is not transparent enough, and that many transactions are privately closed. Expectations cannot be met as the market information is not disseminated extensively through the agents and players. The scenarios clearly highlight the problem of informational non‐availability in the sector. The main policy implication is a need for a more transparent system of sharing rental and pricing information for the retail real estate sector, which is meaningful for real estate developers, investors and urban planners to sustain the retail real estate sector's viability.

Originality/value

This paper takes system dynamics modeling to the next level of incorporating econometric analysis, to estimate the sensitivity of retail rent to cost and the change in retail rent, for effectively structuring the dynamic process whereby the ex ante CVs of the prime retail sector in Singapore are formed and assessed, through a unique and rigorous expectations‐centered system dynamics model of rents, cost, retail stock, general demand and exogenous factors.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 25 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

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