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Using quarterly data for a sample of 17 industrial countries, the purpose of this paper is to study asymmetry in the face of monetary shocks compared to government spending shocks.
Abstract
Purpose
Using quarterly data for a sample of 17 industrial countries, the purpose of this paper is to study asymmetry in the face of monetary shocks compared to government spending shocks.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper outlines demand and supply channels determining the asymmetric effects of monetary and fiscal policies. The time‐series model is presented and an analysis of the difference in the asymmetric effects of monetary and fiscal shocks within countries is presented. There then follows an investigation of the relevance of demand and supply conditions to the asymmetric effects of monetary and fiscal shocks. The implications of asymmetry are contrasted across countries.
Findings
Fluctuations in real output growth, price inflation, wage inflation, and real wage growth vary with respect to anticipated and unanticipated shifts to the money supply, government spending, and the energy price. The asymmetric flexibility of prices appears a major factor in differentiating the expansionary and contractionary effects of fiscal and monetary shocks. Higher price inflation, relative to deflation, exacerbates output contraction, relative to expansion, in the face of monetary shocks. In contrast, larger price deflation, relative to inflation, moderates output contraction, relative to expansion in the face of government spending shocks. The growth of output and the real wage decreases, on average, in the face of monetary variability in many countries. Moreover, the growth of real output and the real wage increases, on average, in the face of government spending variability in many countries. Asymmetry differentiates the effects of monetary and government spending shocks within and across countries. The degree and direction of asymmetry provide a new dimension to differentiate between monetary and fiscal tools in the design of stabilization policies.
Originality/value
The paper's evidence sheds light on the validity of theoretical models explaining asymmetry in the effects of demand‐side stabilization policies. Moreover, the evidence should alert policy makers to the need to relax structural and institutional constraints to maximize the benefits of stabilization policies and minimize the adverse effects on economic variables.
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The assignment of targets to instruments in developing countries cannot satisfactorily follow any simple universal rule. Which approach is appropriate is influenced by whether the…
Abstract
The assignment of targets to instruments in developing countries cannot satisfactorily follow any simple universal rule. Which approach is appropriate is influenced by whether the economy is dominated by primary exports, by the importance of the domestic bond market and bank credit, by the extent of existing restriction in foreign exchange and financial markets, by the presence or absence of persistent high inflation, and by the existence or non‐existence of an active international market in the country's currency. Eighteen observations and maxims on stabilisation policy are tentatively drawn (pp. 64–8) from the material reviewed, and the maxims are partly summarised (pp. 69–71) in a schematic assignment, with variations, of targets to instruments.
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The purpose of this paper is to derive the real implications of inflation targeting using optimizing models characterized by endogenous time preference.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to derive the real implications of inflation targeting using optimizing models characterized by endogenous time preference.
Design/methodology/approach
To ensure consistent consumption and savings behavior, the rate of time preference is modeled as an increasing function of real wealth.
Findings
The results are not uniform and depend on the methods for modeling money in the general equilibrium framework; money in the utility function (MIU) and cash‐in‐advance constraints (CIA). With MIU, time preference wealth effects link the monetary and real sectors by endogenizing real interest rate. Monetary growth raises steady state capital and consumption by the Tobin effect. However, if money is introduced through CIA constraints, inflation policies are sensitive to the structure of the constraint itself. If the constraint applies to consumption and capital purchases, monetary growth lowers the steady state demand for both commodities and reverses the Tobin effect. If the constraint applies only to consumption goods, the same monetary policy is superneutral. This time preference specification has important advantages. It is consistent with the literature that integrates reinforcing wealth effects into aggregative models using ad‐hoc consumption or savings functions. Allowing the rate of time preference to depend positively on real wealth implies that optimizing behavior, not ad‐hoc specification yields wealth effects that endogenize the real interest rate and generate a Tobin effect. This time preference specification provides optimizing foundations for modeling savings as a decreasing function of real wealth, which is empirically verifiable and consistent with empirical predictions of consumption as an increasing function of real wealth.
Originality/value
This paper demonstrates the different effects that monetary policy maintains on steady state capital, consumption and real balance holdings in economies characterized by an endogenous rate of time preference.
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This paper aims to investigate the relationship between residential real estate prices and unemployment rates at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the relationship between residential real estate prices and unemployment rates at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses a long time-series of MSA-level quarterly data from 1990 to 2018. It uses an instrumental variable approach to estimate the effects of residential real estate prices on unemployment rates using the geography-based land constraints measure of Saiz (2010) as the instrument.
Findings
The results show that changes in residential real estate prices do not have a causal effect on unemployment rates in the same quarter. However, it takes 9-12 months for an increase (decrease) in real estate prices to decrease (increase) unemployment rates. This effect is significant during both pre- and post-financial crisis periods and robust to control for the economic characteristics of MSAs.
Research limitations/implications
This paper contributes to the emerging literature that studies the real effects of real estate. Particularly, the methodology and the findings can be used to investigate causal relationships between housing prices and small business development or economic growth. The findings are also of interest to policymakers and practitioners as they illustrate how and when real estate price shocks propagate to the real economy through unemployment rates.
Practical implications
This study’s findings have important implications for academics, policymakers and investors as they provide evidence of a snowball effect associated with shocks to real estate prices: increasing (decreasing) unemployment rates following a decrease (increase) in real estate prices exacerbates the real estate price movements and their economic consequences.
Originality/value
This paper analyzes a significantly longer period, from 1990 to 2018, than the existing literature. Additionally, it uses the MSA-level land unavailability measure of Saiz (2010) as an instrument to explore the effects of residential real estate prices on unemployment rates and when those effects are observed in the real economy.
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This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the impact of some real variables such as real effective exchange rates, real mortgage rates, real money supply, real construction cost index and housing sales on the real housing prices.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model in the monthly period of 2010:1–2021:10.
Findings
The real effective exchange rate has a positive and symmetric effect. The decreasing effect of negative changes in real money supply on real housing prices is higher than the increasing effect of positive changes. Only positive changes in the real construction cost index have an increasing and statistically significant effect on real house prices, while only negative changes in housing sales have a small negative sign and a small increasing effect on housing prices. The fact that the positive and negative changes in real mortgage rates are negative and positive, respectively, indicates that both have a reducing effect on real housing prices.
Originality/value
This study suggests the first NARDL model that investigates the asymmetric effects on real housing prices instead of nominal housing prices for Turkey. In addition, the study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to examine the effects of the five real variables on real housing prices.
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Zafar Hayat, Jameel Ahmed and Faruk Balli
The conventional and new inflation bias theories present two distinct facets to explain the outcome of excess inflation without output gains by a discretionary central banker…
Abstract
Purpose
The conventional and new inflation bias theories present two distinct facets to explain the outcome of excess inflation without output gains by a discretionary central banker. First is the temptation to achieve a higher than potential output, and, second is not to let it falter. The authors explicitly account for these two distinct dimensions in empirical formulations both exogenously and endogenously. Specifically, the purpose of this paper is to investigate what monetary discretion can and cannot do in terms of dual objectives – inflation and growth – across boom and bust cycles, both directly and indirectly.
Design/methodology/approach
(i) Segregate the economic activity into boom and bust cycles; (ii) Explicitly account for the two dimensions of conventional and new inflation bias theories; and (iii) model and estimate the direct and indirect effects of monetary discretion across business cycles.
Findings
The results indicate considerable asymmetries in the effects of monetary discretion and distribution thereof across objectives and cycles. The direct impact of monetary discretion tends to induce significantly higher inflation in boom and bust cycles, while it exerts a positive but insignificant effect on output. The inflation effects are more pronounced in boom than bust cycles and vice versa are the output effects. The indirect effects on output via inflation are significantly pernicious, which are more pronounced in expansions than recessions.
Originality/value
In a nutshell, instead of benefiting, monetary discretion tends to harm in terms of both the dual policy objectives, which cautions about its well calculated and constrained use only.
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Aim of the present monograph is the economic analysis of the role of MNEs regarding globalisation and digital economy and in parallel there is a reference and examination of some…
Abstract
Aim of the present monograph is the economic analysis of the role of MNEs regarding globalisation and digital economy and in parallel there is a reference and examination of some legal aspects concerning MNEs, cyberspace and e‐commerce as the means of expression of the digital economy. The whole effort of the author is focused on the examination of various aspects of MNEs and their impact upon globalisation and vice versa and how and if we are moving towards a global digital economy.
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I am interested in clarifying the discussion of how researchers might try to isolate real option effects to identify whether managerial decisions are guided by a real option…
Abstract
I am interested in clarifying the discussion of how researchers might try to isolate real option effects to identify whether managerial decisions are guided by a real option heuristic. If we are to claim that the theory of real options illuminates managerial behavior, then as a field, we must converge on an understanding as to what constitutes a real option effect, and what does not. The discussion centers on hypothesis development, measurement issues, and research methodology.
Alessandro Bellocchi, Edgar Sanchez Carrera and Giuseppe Travaglini
In this paper, the authors study the long-run determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in three major European economies over the period 1983–2017, namely Germany, France…
Abstract
Purpose
In this paper, the authors study the long-run determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in three major European economies over the period 1983–2017, namely Germany, France and Italy.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors focus on the capital misallocation effects, scale effects and labor misallocation effects. To this end, the authors study how real interest rate shocks, real exchange rate shocks, real wage shocks and changes in labor regulation affected TFP in major European countries over the last decades. The authors employ a theoretical and an empirical model to investigate the issue. The empirical results are obtained using a VAR model for estimation.
Findings
A stripped-down model of labor market in open economy with technology progress allows to identify the relevant variables affecting TFP. On the empirical ground, the authors find a positive relationship between TFP and real interest rate in the long run. Importantly, the authors detect a positive relationship between TFP and real exchange rate. Further, the authors show that the TFP can respond positively to a stricter labor market regulation and to a higher real compensation per employee. The results provide support to the idea that TFP has a positive relation with prices in the long run, while it may be biased along the cycle because of price rigidity.
Research limitations/implications
The present model is stylized and may not capture all of the details of reality. The analysis should be extended to a larger number of countries. Technology progress could be proxied using different variables, as the R&D expenditure or the number of patents. Micro data, for specific sectors and industries, can improve the quality of the empirical investigation.
Practical implications
Mainly the authors find that TFP has a positive relationship with price changes in the long run, while it may be biased along the cycle because of price stickiness. Capital misallocation and labor misallocation can negatively affect TFP. Thus, the observed divergences in European TFP can be traced back to the misallocation effects attributable to the decrease of real interest rate and real wages, together with the raising labor flexibility. Mainly, the authors detect a positive long-run relationship between TFP and real exchange rate. This outcome strengthens the supply-side view of the relationship between productivity and real exchange rate.
Social implications
The authors believe that the present setup can be helpful to reflect critically on the nodes at the core of the productivity slowdown and asymmetries in the eurozone. The aim is to implement renewed policies in order to favor economic growth, convergence and stability in the euro area.
Originality/value
This research addresses the issue of asymmetries among European economies by focusing on the role played by real prices in the long run. Traditionally, the dynamics of TFP have been attributed only to technological components, human capital and knowledge. This work shows that the dynamics of prices such as the real interest rate, the real exchange rate and the real wage can also influence the technological process by pushing the production system toward choices that are not always optimal for economic growth. An interesting result of this research concerns the positive relationship between real exchange rates and TFP in the long term, evidence of an important supply-side effect on the technological process.
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