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The challenge of predicting changes in aggregate income and stock prices is one that has occupied the research agendas of economists. This paper aims to use the consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio to predict future income and stock prices.

To examine the stability of the consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio, the authors run a two-variable, two-lag reduced-form VAR in the vein of Cochrane (1994), using a lag of each respective ratio as exogenous to the VAR. Additionally, the authors estimate an AR(4) model for income and prices.

The consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio remain key to understanding future movements in income and stock prices. The consumption–income ratio significantly predicts future income in the USA, and aggregate income is easier to predict than consumption in the VAR model. The dividend–price ratio does not significantly predict future price growth. Consumption and dividend shocks have lasting impacts on income and prices.

The consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio are still key to understanding future movements in income and stock prices. The consumption–income ratio significantly predicts future income in the USA, and aggregate income is easier to predict than consumption in the VAR model. However, the dividend–price ratio does not significantly predict future price growth, a change from previous research from the 1990s, despite the increasing complexity of stock markets. Consumption and dividend shocks have lasting impacts on income and prices and appear to be significant drivers in both the short- and long-run variance in income and prices.

This study aims to study the sensitivity of nonlisted real estate investment companies’ accounting earnings to house prices. This study evaluates whether house price changes determined these companies’ return on equity (ROE) or if other factors influenced the industry’s profitability beyond house price growth.

The authors collected a ten-year sample with the aggregate ROE of Portugal’s real estate investment companies, split by regions, and data on house prices and the per capita gross domestic product as a control variable. The authors ran a national-level time series with the canonical cointegrating regression estimator, which is robust to a small sample size; the authors also performed a regression on regional-level panel data with the common correlated effects mean group estimator, thus allowing slope coefficient heterogeneity and controlling for cross-sectional dependence. The authors also ran ordinary least squares regressions as a means of comparison.

This study found that an increase in the house price is not translated into an increase in the aggregate ROE. The results are robust with a reduced survivorship-biased sample, meaning that even the best-succeeded real estate investment companies do not have their accounting ROE dependent on house price growth.

The sample size is small and specific to one country. This paper did not study the housing market structure to verify whether it operates under monopolistic competition, which could further explain the attained results.

Policy decision-makers should know that there are no excess profits in the real estate investment companies’ industry because of house price growth that could be subject to windfall taxes.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the connections between house prices and real estate investment companies’ accounting earnings have never been studied.

The aim of this article is to assess the macroeconomic consequences of some specific aspects of financialization (i.e. share buy-back) using a hybrid post-Keynesian model of growth and distribution based on Kaldorian and Kaleckian characteristics.

The study follows a post-Keynesian approach and deals with financialization issues by implementing several numerical simulations.

The numerical simulations reveal the negative real impacts of massive share repurchases on the rate of accumulation because they immediately siphon off revenues directly intended for investment projects. Moreover, the negative effect of share buy-backs is reinforced especially when firms' investment decisions are more sensitive to a variation in retained earnings. Next, this macro-model also reproduces several well-known figures of the Kaleckian tradition and the paradox of costs.

The present article can be considered as a starting point for further theoretical extensions and requires empirical validation.

The Kaldor-Kalecki macro-model could be useful for policymakers who are interested in containing some of the negative excesses of financialization.

This paper aims to examine and compare the dividend ratios’ statistical and economic ability to predict the equity premium in the UK and US markets and two US sub-indices (S&P 500 Growth and S&P 500 Value).

In this paper, the authors use the linear regression models to examine the dividend ratios’ statistical ability to predict the equity premium. The in-sample and out-of-sample approaches, including Diebold and Mariano (1995) statistics, and Goyal and Welch’s (2003) graphical approach, are used. Also, the mean-variance analysis is used to test the economic significance.

The paper findings indicate that the dividend ratios have in-sample and out-of-sample predictive abilities in both UK and US markets and both US sub-indices. However, the results show that the dividend ratios have a less impressive predictive ability in the US market compared to the UK market and less in the US value index than the US growth index. This could indicate that there is no relation between the number of companies that distribute dividends in each index and the informativeness of dividends ratios. Furthermore, the tests show the dividend ratios’ predictive ability departure during particular periods and in some indices.

Results and implications of this research are exclusively applied to the US and UK markets. These results can also be applied with caution to other markets, taking into consideration the distinctive characteristics of these markets.

Results revealed in this paper imply that the investors in any of the indices may experience economic gain by adopting a dynamic trading strategy using the information content of the dividend ratios prediction models instead of the benchmark model, which is the prevailing simple moving average model.

This paper adds value through testing the prediction models’ economic significance in two well-developed markets, in addition to exploring the relationship between the number of companies distributing cash dividends and the dividends ratio prediction ability. Unlike most of the previous studies in which dividend ratios’ prediction ability is attributed to the number of companies that distribute dividends in the market, this paper denied this interpretation by studying two S&P 500 sub-indices. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to test the prediction models’ ability for these sub-indices.

This paper explores the connection between capital structure and financial performance within European listed firms. The primary objective is to demonstrate an inverse U-shaped relationship between these two variables and pinpoint an optimal debt-equity mix.

In this study, we adopt a dynamic modeling approach to investigate the relationship between a firm’s capital structure and financial performance. Drawing on well-established theories and prior empirical studies, our model examines 3,121 dividend-paying firms from 41 European countries over 14 years, from 2008 to 2021. To enhance the reliability of our findings, we employ two distinct estimation techniques: the fixed effect model (FE) and the system generalized method of moments (System-GMM).

This study reveals an inverse U-shaped relationship between the firm’s financial performance, measured by the return on equity (ROE) and its capital structure (total liability to total assets ratio). Furthermore, an optimal capital structure of about 29% is determined for all firms in the sample, and about 21%, 28% and 41% industry-specific capital structure for manufacturing, real estate and wholesale trade, respectively.

This paper contributes to existing knowledge by empirically determining an optimal capital structure for listed firms across various industries in Europe, which very few studies have attempted to do in the past. An optimal capital structure is an invaluable benchmark for managers and other stakeholders, informing their decision-making.

Following the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), firms are required to recognize gains or losses from investment property revaluation in the income statement, instead of equity in the balance sheet. This results in both a “materiality effect” (as auditors set a higher materiality level and require lower audit efforts) and a “cushion effect” (as revaluation gains serve as a cushion and reduce earnings manipulation incentives). Utilizing this unique setting, this study investigates whether the use of fair value measurement for investment property affects audit pricing before and after IFRS convergence in the Hong Kong real estate industry.

Using a sample of 78 real estate companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in the pre-IFRS period (2001–2004) and the post-IFRS period (2005–2008), this study employs multivariate regression analyses to test the research hypotheses with respect to the association between investment property revaluation and audit fees and the role of corporate governance structures in the context of family control.

The empirical results suggest that audit fees decrease with revaluation gains or losses from investment property revaluation after IFRS convergence, but not before. Furthermore, the negative association is stronger in companies controlled by founders, with proportionally more independent directors on the board and with a smaller board size. This is consistent with the moderating effect of corporate governance.

The findings shed more light on the consequences of fair value accounting for non-financial assets and are of interest to regulators for assessing the benefits of the wide use of fair value measurement under IFRS in emerging markets, especially where the corporate ownership structure is typically controlled by founding families. This study also provides recommendations for the audit community to fully consider the impact of asset revaluation on audit procedures and audit pricing.

Ethiopia has enacted laws on transparency and disclosure of information in state-owned enterprises (SOEs). However, these laws are not strict enough, with the transparency and disclosure practices disappointing in the country. Thus, this study aims to investigate the legal framework governing transparency and disclosure in SOEs.

This study uses doctrinal, qualitative and comparative approaches. Domestic legal texts are appraised based on the organization for economic co-operation and development Guideline on Corporate Governance of State-owned Enterprises, the World Bank Toolkit on Corporate Governance of State-owned Enterprises and best national practices. This approach has been further corroborated by qualitative analysis of the basic principles of transparency and disclosure.

The finding reveals that the laws on transparency and disclosure do not comply with global practices and are inadequate to ensure transparency and discourse in SOEs. They fail to establish appropriate disclosure frameworks and practices at the SOE and state-ownership entity levels. They also indiscriminately subject enterprises to multiple auditing functions and conflicting responsibilities.

To the author’s knowledge, this study is the first legal literature on transparency and disclosure in Ethiopian SOEs. This study assists the state as owner in reforming the laws and uplifting SOEs from their current unpleasant condition. It can also become a reference for future research.

The author investigates the effect of trade protection on domestic firm innovation in China and explores the channel through which trade protection affects corporate innovation.

Using a sample of Chinese A-share manufacturing companies from 2003 to 2019, the author starts with a univariate analysis by examining the innovation output after trade protection for all samples. The author uses the natural logarithm of one plus the number of trade protection cases received by the industry to which the firm belongs in a particular year to proxy for trade protection.

The author finds that trade protection significantly encourages firms’ patent application, particularly substantive patents, which is stronger in non-state-owned enterprises. Moreover, the mitigation of financial constraint is plausible channel that allows trade protection to promote innovation.

For practitioners, they should seize the dividends of national policies. In the process of implementing trade protection, they should concentrate on improving their innovation level and enhancing their core competitiveness. When they are not subject to trade protection, they can also make profits and develop in the long run.

For policy makers, in the early stage of industry development, trade protection can be used to ease the companies’ financing constraints and improve the companies’ profits, which will help them concentrate their efforts, promote innovation and further develop. However, in the mid-term development of the industry, policy makers should reduce trade protection. Through the entry of foreign capital, companies face increased competition, which can enhance the companies’ motivation for long-term development.

Overall, this paper sheds light on the real effects of trade protection and the determinants of innovation. First, the paper sheds light on the impact of international trade on firms’ innovation. Second, this study also contributes to the emerging literature on the effect of trade policy uncertainty on financial constraint. Third, the paper adds to the stream of literature on the drivers of innovation.

Investment decisions hold immense significance for investors and eventually affect their portfolio performance. Investors are advised to weigh the costs and benefits associated with every decision in order to make rational investment decisions. However, behavioral finance research reveals that investors' choices often stem from a blend of economic, psychological and sociological factors, leading to irrationality. Moreover, environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) factors, aligned with behavioral finance hypotheses, also sway opinions and stock prices. Hence, this study aims to identify how individual equity investors prioritize key determinants of investment decisions in the Indian stock market.

The current research gathered data from 391 individual equity investors through a structured questionnaire. Thereafter, a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) was used to meet the purpose of the research.

Information availability, representative heuristics belonging to psychological factors and macroeconomic indicators falling under economic factors were discovered to be the three most prioritized criteria, whereas environmental issues within the realm of ESG factors, recommendations of brokers or investment consultants of sociological factors, and social issues belonging to ESG factors were found to be the least prioritized criteria, respectively.

Only active and experienced individual equity investors were surveyed in this study. Furthermore, with a sample size of 391 participants, the study was confined to individual equity investors in one nation, India.

This research has implications for individual investors, institutional investors, market regulators, corporations, financial advisors, portfolio managers, policymakers and society as a whole.

To the best of the authors' knowledge, no real attempt has been made to comprehend how active and experienced individual investors prioritize critical determinants of investment decisions by taking economic, psychological, sociological and ESG factors collectively under consideration.

Brazil’s regional inequality is an important topic due to the large and persistent differences in development between states and the high levels of inequality in the country. These variations in development can potentially render survey data inaccurate since the significance of capital income varies across the states. Besides, previous studies incorporating tax and national accounts data globally have mainly focused on measuring the income distribution at the country-level. This approach can limit the understanding of inequality, especially when considering large countries such as Brazil.

The methodology used to construct these estimates follows the guidelines of the Distributional National Accounts, whose core goal is to provide income distribution measures consistent with macroeconomic aggregates and harmonized across countries and time. The procedure has three main steps: first, it corrects the survey’s underrepresentation of top incomes using tax data. Then, it accounts for national income items not included in the survey or tax data, such as imputed rents and undistributed profits. Finally, it ensures that all components match the national income.

Compared to survey-based estimations, the results reveal a new angle on the state-level inequality. This study indicates that Amazonas, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo have a more concentrated income distribution. The top 1\% of earners in these states receives around 28\% of total pre-tax income, while the top 10\% receive nearly 60\%. On the other end, Amapá (AP), Acre (AC), Rondônia (RO) and Santa Catarina (SC) are the states where the income distribution is less concentrated. There were no significant changes in the income distribution across the states during the period analyzed.

This study combines survey, tax and national accounts data to construct new estimates of Brazil’s state-level income distribution from 2006 to 2019. Previous results only considered income captured in surveys, which usually misses a significant part of capital incomes. This limitation may bias comparisons as capital income has different importance across the states. The new estimates represent the income of top groups more accurately, account for the entire national income and enable to compare regional inequality levels consistently with other countries.