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Article
Publication date: 26 March 2024

Donia Aloui and Abderrazek Ben Maatoug

Over the last few years, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted unconventional monetary policies. These measures aim to boost economic growth and increase inflation through…

Abstract

Purpose

Over the last few years, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted unconventional monetary policies. These measures aim to boost economic growth and increase inflation through the bond market. The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) on the investor’s behavior in the stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the authors theoretically identify the transmission channels of the QE shocks to the stock market. Then, the authors empirically assess the financial market’s responses to QE shocks in a data-rich environment using a factor augmented VAR (FAVAR).

Findings

The results show that the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy positively affects the stock market. A QE shock leads to an increase in stock prices and a drop in the realized volatility and the implied risk premium. The authors also suggest that the ECB’s QE is transmitted to the stock market through five main channels: the liquidity, the expectation, the portfolio reallocation, the interest rates and the risk premium channels.

Practical implications

The findings help to better understand the behavior of stock market assets in a data-rich economic context and guide investors and policymakers in the presence of unconventional monetary tools. For instance, decision-makers and investors should consider the short-term effect of the QE interventions and the changing behavior of the financial actors over time. In addition, high stock market returns can increase risk appetite. This can lead investors to underestimate the market risk. Decision-makers and market participants should take into consideration the impact of the large injection of money through the QE, which may raise the risk of a speculative bubble in the financial market.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that incorporates a theoretical and empirical analysis to explore QE transmission to the stock market in the European context. Unlike previous studies, the authors use the shadow rate proposed by Wu and Xia (2017) to quantify the effect of the ECB’s QE in a data-rich environment. The authors also include two key risk indicators – the stock market risk premium and the realized volatility – to capture investors’ behavior in the stock market following QE shocks.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 April 2024

Steven D. Silver

Although the effects of both news sentiment and expectations on price in financial markets have now been extensively demonstrated, the jointness that these predictors can have in…

Abstract

Purpose

Although the effects of both news sentiment and expectations on price in financial markets have now been extensively demonstrated, the jointness that these predictors can have in their effects on price has not been well-defined. Investigating causal ordering in their effects on price can further our understanding of both direct and indirect effects in their relationship to market price.

Design/methodology/approach

We use autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology to examine the relationship between agent expectations and news sentiment in predicting price in a financial market. The ARDL estimation is supplemented by Grainger causality testing.

Findings

In the ARDL models we implement, measures of expectations and news sentiment and their lags were confirmed to be significantly related to market price in separate estimates. Our results further indicate that in models of relationships between these predictors, news sentiment is a significant predictor of agent expectations, but agent expectations are not significant predictors of news sentiment. Granger-causality estimates confirmed the causal inferences from ARDL results.

Research limitations/implications

Taken together, the results extend our understanding of the dynamics of expectations and sentiment as exogenous information sources that relate to price in financial markets. They suggest that the extensively cited predictor of news sentiment can have both a direct effect on market price and an indirect effect on price through agent expectations.

Practical implications

Even traditional financial management firms now commonly track behavioral measures of expectations and market sentiment. More complete understanding of the relationship between these predictors of market price can further their representation in predictive models.

Originality/value

This article extends the frequently reported bivariate relationship of expectations and sentiment to market price to examine jointness in the relationship between these variables in predicting price. Inference from ARDL estimates is supported by Grainger-causality estimates.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 February 2024

Mostafa Saidur Rahim Khan

This study delves into the nuanced implications of short-sale constraints on stock prices within the context of stock market efficiency. While existing research has explored this…

Abstract

Purpose

This study delves into the nuanced implications of short-sale constraints on stock prices within the context of stock market efficiency. While existing research has explored this relationship, inconsistencies persist in their findings. The purpose of this study is to conduct a comprehensive review of literature to elucidate the reasons behind these disparities.

Design/methodology/approach

A systematic review of existing theoretical and empirical studies was conducted following the PRISMA method. The analysis centered on discerning the factors contributing to the divergence in projected stock prices due to these constraints. Key areas explored included assumptions related to expectations homogeneity, revisions, information uncertainty, trading motivations and fluctuations in supply and demand of risky assets.

Findings

The review uncovered multifaceted reasons for the disparities in findings regarding the influence of short-sale constraints on stock prices. Variations in assumptions related to market expectations, coupled with fluctuations in perceived information uncertainty and trading motivations, were identified as pivotal factors contributing to differing projections. Empirical evidence disparities stemmed from the use of proxies for short-sale constraints, varied sample periods, market structure nuances, regulatory changes and the presence of option trading.

Originality/value

This study emphasizes the significance of not oversimplifying the impact of short-sale constraints on stock prices. It highlights the need to understand these effects within the broader context of market structure and methodological considerations. By delineating the intricate interplay of factors affecting stock prices under short-sale constraints, this review provides a nuanced perspective, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding in the field.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 22 December 2023

Eric B. Yiadom, Valentine Tay, Courage E.K. Sefe, Vivian Aku Gbade and Olivia Osei-Manu

The performance of financial markets is significantly influenced by the political environment during general elections. This study investigates the effect of general elections on…

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Abstract

Purpose

The performance of financial markets is significantly influenced by the political environment during general elections. This study investigates the effect of general elections on stock market performance in selected African markets.

Design/methodology/approach

Prior studies have been inconsistent in determining whether electioneering events negatively or positively influence stock market performance. The study utilized panel data set with annual observations from 1990 to 2020. The generalized method of moments (GMM) is employed to investigate the effect of electioneering and change in government on key stock market performance indicators, including stock market capitalization, stock market turnover ratio and the value of stock traded.

Findings

The study finds that electioneering activities generally have a positive impact on the performance of the stock market, whereas a change in government has a negative impact. As a result, the study recommends that stakeholders of the stock market remain vigilant and actively monitor electioneering events to devise and implement effective policies aimed at mitigating political risks during general elections. By adopting these measures, investor confidence can be significantly enhanced, fostering a more robust and secure investment environment.

Originality/value

The study investigates a neglected section of the literature by highlighting not only the effect of elections on stock market indicators but also possible change in government during elections.

Details

Journal of Humanities and Applied Social Sciences, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2632-279X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Qingmei Tan, Muhammad Haroon Rasheed and Muhammad Shahid Rasheed

Despite its devastating nature, the COVID-19 pandemic has also catalyzed a substantial surge in the adoption and integration of technological tools within economies, exerting a…

Abstract

Purpose

Despite its devastating nature, the COVID-19 pandemic has also catalyzed a substantial surge in the adoption and integration of technological tools within economies, exerting a profound influence on the dissemination of information among participants in stock markets. Consequently, this present study delves into the ramifications of post-pandemic dynamics on stock market behavior. It also examines the relationship between investors' sentiments, underlying behavioral drivers and their collective impact on global stock markets.

Design/methodology/approach

Drawing upon data spanning from 2012 to 2023 and encompassing major world indices classified by Morgan Stanley Capital International’s (MSCI) market and regional taxonomy, this study employs a threshold regression model. This model effectively distinguishes the thresholds within these influential factors. To evaluate the statistical significance of variances across these thresholds, a Wald coefficient analysis was applied.

Findings

The empirical results highlighted the substantive role that investors' sentiments and behavioral determinants play in shaping the predictability of returns on a global scale. However, their influence on developed economies and the continents of America appears comparatively lower compared with the Asia–Pacific markets. Similarly, the regions characterized by a more pronounced influence of behavioral factors seem to reduce their reliance on these factors in the post-pandemic landscape and vice versa. Interestingly, the post COVID-19 technological advancements also appear to exert a lesser impact on developed nations.

Originality/value

This study pioneers the investigation of these contextual dissimilarities, thereby charting new avenues for subsequent research studies. These insights shed valuable light on the contextualized nexus between technology, societal dynamics, behavioral biases and their collective impact on stock markets. Furthermore, the study's revelations offer a unique vantage point for addressing market inefficiencies by pinpointing the pivotal factors driving such behavioral patterns.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 January 2024

Colin Lizieri

The aim of this Real Estate Insight is to comment upon commercial real estate research. Much of the current research on commercial real estate sits in academic silos, constrained…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this Real Estate Insight is to comment upon commercial real estate research. Much of the current research on commercial real estate sits in academic silos, constrained by disciplinary boundaries and rejecting insights from other areas. This can lead to an impoverished understanding of the processes and practices that drive market behaviour.

Design/methodology/approach

This Real Estate Insight, through the lens of history, draws on insights from a century earlier and, in particular, from the work of Frank Ramsey; the paper argues that market behaviour is shaped by the role of key actors and persistent beliefs which need to be accounted for in our models of market practice.

Findings

The paper argues that current research paradigms need to accommodate agency explicitly into existing models and that real estate research will benefit immensely if researcher were more open in seeking ideas from outside the real estate field and to be more open to external ideas and concepts.

Practical implications

The paper suggests that property research needs to be more embracing of other academic disciplines to develop a full understanding of the numerous and various drivers within commercial real estate markets.

Originality/value

This is a review of how beliefs impact upon commercial real estate markets. As with many things, history can help researchers today get a broader and more appropriate perspective on market drivers and how they affect decision-making.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 42 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 September 2022

Sei Jeong and Munisamy Gopinath

This study aims to investigate the role of international price volatility and inventories on domestic market price dynamics in the case of agricultural commodities.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the role of international price volatility and inventories on domestic market price dynamics in the case of agricultural commodities.

Design/methodology/approach

A structural model is employed to uncover relationships among commodity price, price volatility, inventories and convenience yield. Monthly producer price data along with annual data on trade, consumption, inventories and tariffs for 71 countries and 13 commodities covering 2010–2019 are assembled to estimate the model. With a first-stage Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) estimator to identify the best instrument set, a nonlinear approach is used to estimate the model.

Findings

Results show that international market information plays a critical role in domestic market price dynamics. International price volatility has a stronger effect on domestic prices than that of international inventories.

Research limitations/implications

Current upheaval in commodity markets requires an understanding of how prices move together and inventories affect that movement. A country's internal price is not independent of the effects of global market events.

Originality/value

Although hypotheses exist that global market information (volatility and inventories) helps countries manage domestic commodity prices, there have been limited studies on this relationship, especially with a structured model and cross-country data.

Details

Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-0839

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 May 2023

Mohamed Shaker Ahmed, Adel Alsamman and Kaouther Chebbi

This paper aims to investigate feedback trading and autocorrelation behavior in the cryptocurrency market.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate feedback trading and autocorrelation behavior in the cryptocurrency market.

Design/methodology/approach

It uses the GJR-GARCH model to investigate feedback trading in the cryptocurrency market.

Findings

The findings show a negative relationship between trading volume and autocorrelation in the cryptocurrency market. The GJR-GARCH model shows that only the USD Coin and Binance USD show an asymmetric effect or leverage effect. Interestingly, other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Binance Coin, Ripple, Solana, Cardano and Bitcoin Cash show the opposite behavior of the leverage effect. The findings of the GJR-GARCH model also show positive feedback trading for USD Coin, Binance USD, Ripple, Solana and Bitcoin Cash and negative feedback trading for Ethereum and Cardano only.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to the literature by extending Sentana and Wadhwani (1992) to explore the presence of feedback trading in the cryptocurrency market using a sample of the most active cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin, namely, Ethereum, USD coin, Binance Coin, Binance USD, Ripple, Cardano, Solana and Bitcoin Cash.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 41 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 November 2023

Ming Lin, Mu Tian, Yifan Wang and Libing Shu

This study aims to investigate whether frugality increases customer complaints via the mediating role of the zone of tolerance (ZOT) of quality for Shanzhai products…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate whether frugality increases customer complaints via the mediating role of the zone of tolerance (ZOT) of quality for Shanzhai products. Additionally, the study seeks to explore how customer empathy as a boundary condition affects the relationship between the ZOT of quality and customer complaints.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on the purchasing data of 241 low-income customers from business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce and social platforms in China, hierarchical analysis was conducted in the study. Moreover, “PROCESS SPSS Macro” was used to test the mediation effect of the ZOT of quality and the moderated mediation effect with customer empathy as a moderator.

Findings

The results indicate a positive impact of frugality on customer complaints, which is mediated by the ZOT of quality. Moreover, with an increase in customer empathy, the negative effect of the ZOT of quality on customer complaints increases, and the positive influence of frugality on customer complaints, through the mediation of the ZOT of quality, also becomes stronger.

Originality/value

Drawing upon the principle of cognitive consistency, this study not only extends the stream of research on frugality by exploring how frugality influences customer complaints via the mediation of the ZOT of quality but also sheds new light on the research on customer empathy by exploring its moderating role in the relationship between the ZOT of quality and customer complaints.

Details

Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics, vol. 36 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1355-5855

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 February 2024

Shuang Wu, Bo Li, Weichun Chen and Minxue Wang

This paper analyzes the advance selling and pricing strategies of fresh products supply chain where the e-retailer provides wholesale contract or agency contract to the fresh…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper analyzes the advance selling and pricing strategies of fresh products supply chain where the e-retailer provides wholesale contract or agency contract to the fresh products supplier.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper constructed a two-period sequential-move game of fresh products supply chain members.

Findings

This analysis showed that the supply chain members had different preferences for contracts under different market conditions. The advance selling of fresh products was not a decision of the seller, but also required the support of other supply chain members. And the advance selling strategy was not always beneficial to all supply chain parties. Under the two contracts, there were market conditions in which the profits of supply chain members were Pareto-improved through the implementation of advance selling.

Research limitations/implications

The model presented in this study focuses solely on the context of monopoly, overlooking the competition from alternative suppliers or retailers. Consequently, exploring the competitive landscape within the fresh products supply chain, particularly in relation to pre-sale pricing, emerges as a crucial avenue for further investigation. By employing empirical research methods, valuable insights are gleaned, thereby significantly augmenting the existing body of relevant theories.

Practical implications

The decision to pre-sell fresh products should be based on market conditions. Supply chain members can control production costs and fresh products circulation losses to maximize profits.

Originality/value

From the perspective of game theory, this study analyzed the optimal advance selling and pricing strategies of fresh products supply chain members under two kinds of contracts. These results can provide practical implications for fresh products suppliers and e-retailers.

Details

International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-0552

Keywords

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