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This paper aims to accommodate the influence of both economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks in the relationship between oil price and exchange-rate returns in the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) countries through an interaction term (EPGR).

The authors use continuous wavelet transform (CWT), wavelet coherence (WC) and partial wavelet coherence (PWC). First, the authors apply the CWT to examine the evolution of oil prices, EPGR and exchange rate returns. Second, the authors use WC to investigate the relationship between oil price and exchange rate returns (excluding EPGR). Third, the authors use PWC to account for EPGR’s impact on the oil exchange rate returns dynamics and explore partial correlations in the oil and exchange rate returns dynamics.

The empirical results generally show that EPGR is a key driver in the oil and exchange rate returns nexus.

The relevance of EPGR in influencing exchange rate volatility is confirmed by the findings. As a result, it is critical for government officials and foreign exchange investors to use EPGR as a leading indicator when establishing foreign exchange trading strategies and economic forecasts.

This study is the first, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to apply a wavelet-based technique to account for EPGR in the relationship between oil and exchange rate returns in the BRICS countries.

This study evaluated the effect of macroeconomic factors on residential real estate (RE) investment returns in the cities of Abuja and Lagos, Nigeria, with a view to guiding RE investors and researchers.

A survey research design was employed using a questionnaire to collect RE transaction data from 2008 to 2022 from estate surveying and valuation firms in the study areas. Rental and capital value data collected were used to construct rental and capital value indices and total returns on investment. The macroeconomic data used were retrieved from the archives of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Granger causality (GC) and multiple regression models were adopted to evaluate the effect of selected macroeconomic variables on residential RE investment returns in the study areas.

The study found a progressive upward movement in rental and capital values of residential RE investment in the study areas within the study period. Total and risk-adjusted returns on investment were equally positive within the study period. Only the inflation rate, unemployment rate and real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita were found to be the major determinants of residential RE investment returns in the study areas within the study period.

The secrecy associated with property transaction information/data by RE practitioners in the study areas posed a challenge. Property transaction data were not adequately kept in a way for easier access and retrieval in many of the estate firms and agent offices. Consequently, there was a lack of data that spanned the study period in some of the sampled estate firms or agent offices. This data collection challenge was, however, overcome by the excess time spent retrieving the required data for this study to ensure that the findings appropriately answer the research questions.

Inflation and GDP per capita have been found to be significant factors that influence residential RE investment performance in the study areas. Therefore, investors should pay attention to these identified macroeconomic factors for residential RE investment in the study areas whilst making investment decisions in order to mitigate a possible loss of income or return. The government should formulate and implement economic policies that would address the current high unemployment and inflation rates in Nigeria at large.

This study has extended and further enriched the existing body of knowledge in the field of RE investment analysis in Nigeria. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first to adopt the Cornish Fisher value-at-risk and modified Sharpe ratio models to analyse risk and risk-adjusted returns on residential RE investment, respectively, in Nigeria. It has therefore redirected the focus of RE researchers and practitioners to a more objective approach to RE investment performance analysis in Nigeria.

This paper delves into the ex ante rates of return demanded by the private sector in Indonesian public–private partnership (PPP) infrastructure projects and the manifold factors emanating from project attributes that can influence these rates.

This paper analyzes feasibility studies of 37 PPP projects across different sectors. The studies were carefully selected based on relevance, completeness and validity of data. The analysis uses statistical techniques, including Levene’s tests, t-tests, ANOVA tests, Cohen’s effect size and Pearson correlations, to explore differences in cost of capital and excess returns across various attributes.

Based on the statistical analysis, no significant difference exists between the excess return of 200 basis points (bps) and the equity excess return of 0 bps. This suggests that the eligibility criteria for PPP projects require an internal rate of return (IRR) equal to the weighted average cost of capital plus 200 bps or an equity IRR equal to the cost of equity. The variations in the tested variables among diverse project attributes do not exhibit statistically significant disparities, even though specific attributes display moderate to high effect sizes.

This paper represents one of the first attempts to examine the rates of return demanded by the private sector in the context of Indonesian PPP projects. It comprehensively explores the factors that influence these rates, drawing on insights derived from feasibility studies.

The aim of this paper is threefold: (1) to develop a new measure of investor sentiment rational (ISR) of developing countries by applying principal component analysis (PCA), (2) to investigate co-movements between the ten developing stock markets, the sentiment investor's, exchange rates and geopolitical risk (GPR) during Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, (3) to explore the key factors that might affect exchange market and capital market before and mainly during Russia–Ukraine war period.

The wavelet approach and the multivariate wavelet coherence (MWC) are applied to detect the co-movements on daily data from August 2019 to December 2022. Value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) are used to assess the systemic risks of exchange rate market and stock market return in the developing market.

Results of this study reveal (1) strong interdependence between GPR, investor sentiment rational (ISR), stock market index and exchange rate in short- and long-terms in most countries, as inferred from (WTC) analysis. (2) There is evidence of strong short-term co-movements between ISR and exchange rates, with ISR leading. (3) Multivariate coherency shows strong contributions of ISR and GPR index to stock market index and exchange rate returns. The findings signal the attractiveness of the Vietnamese dong, Malaysian ringgits and Tunisian dinar as a hedge for currency portfolios against GPR. The authors detect a positive connectedness in the short term between all pairs of the variables analyzed in most countries. (4) Both foreign exchange and equity markets are exposed to higher levels of systemic risk in the period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

This study provides information that supports investors, regulators and executive managers in developing countries. The impact of sentiment investor with GPR intensified the co-movements of stocks market and exchange market during 2021–2022, which overlaps with period of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

This study focuses on listed and over-the-counter (OTC) companies in the Taiwan Stock Exchange. It found that an increase in the ownership proportion of institutional investors (INs), including foreign investors, investment trusts, and dealers can enhance the informativeness of stock prices. The relationship between these factors follows an inverted U-shaped pattern, indicating that excessively high ownership ratios can actually lead to a decrease in the informativeness of stock prices. Additionally, increasing the ownership proportions of foreign investors and investment trusts can reduce the risk of stock price collapse, while dealers show no significant relationship in this regard. This study also reveals that the technical variable of the price deviation rate is an important explanatory factor for post-collapse returns. It is positively correlated with the magnitude of the price decline after a collapse, meaning that stocks with weaker pre-collapse performance experience larger post-collapse declines. When the data during the 2020 pandemic period are excluded, changes in foreign ownership ratios show a significant positive correlation with postcrash returns in both the long and short term. The significant correlation in the short term may be due to a high proportion of foreign ownership. Any reduction in this could put pressure on stock prices, and retail investors may follow suit and sell-off, using foreign investors as a reference. The significant correlation in the long term might be due to foreign investors themselves possibly also trying to avoid the pressure that their own short-term sell-offs could exert on stock prices. The changes in the ownership ratios of investment trusts and dealers indicate that medium and long-term changes have a significant impact on postcrash returns, while the changes in the major players' ownership show no significant correlation. When data from 2020 are included in the analysis, the significance of all INs decreases.

The intent of this Practice Briefing is to provide clarity on drivers of property pricing in a changing economic environment. The principal basis of this analysis is to investigate how properties have been priced relative to interest rates over the long haul. Such an insight may help investors navigate the world of property investment in a post zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) world.

This practice briefing is an overview of the role of economic drivers in pricing property in different economic eras pre- and post-ZIRP. It looks at returns over time relative to risk criteria and growth.

This briefing is a review of property pricing and its relationship to economic drivers and discusses the concept of return premiums as a market indicator to spot under/over-priced property assets in the market.

This briefing considers the implications of identifying salient and pertinent market indicators over time as bellweathers for property pricing. Good property investment is grounded in understanding when assets are under and overpriced relative to investors’ expectations of growth and returns going forward. An understanding of markets and the current indicators thereof can provide investors with insights into those criteria.

This provides guidance on how to interpret markets and get an understanding of property pricing over time.

Motivated by the real-world practice that the boom of the online selling induces a higher product return as well, selecting which online channel mode indicates who takes ownership over the product and thus bears the loss of the product return. This paper aims to seek the optimal online channel modes for the two members in a platform supply chain in the presence of product returns.

This study aims to develop a platform supply chain that consists of one platform company and one supplier. Along with an offline distribution channel, the supplier can choose two alternative online selling modes (i.e. the reselling and agency modes) to sell its product through the online marketplace. This paper applies Stackelberg game to derive the equilibrium with different business scenarios and selects the optimal online channel modes for two parties, respectively. Moreover, this paper extends to a different supply chain with a reverse channel leadership and a different product return policy for testing the robustness.

Several interesting and important results are derived in this paper. Firstly, it is found that the relative pricing are largely relied on the costs of two channels. Secondly, the platform supply chain may benefit from a pure channel rather than the dual-channel when this channel enjoys a relatively low cost and/or a sufficiently high consumer preference. Then, the platform and the supplier act contradictorily when selecting their optimal online channel modes. To be specific, the platform motivates to choose the online reselling mode when both the commission rate and the slotting fee are relatively low, whereas the supplier is likely to select the online agency mode under this circumstance. Finally, a win-win situation in regards to the optimal online channel mode for two parties is achievable with numerical experiments.

Based on the analytical studies, the results derived in the authors’ work can provide managerial insights to assist the supplier and the platform company in determining the operational decision and selecting the optimal online channel mode to deal with consumer returns. In addition, appropriate commission rate along with slotting fee will make both parties achieve a win-win situation in determining their optimal online channel mode.

To the authors’ best knowledge, this paper makes the first move to determine the optimal online channel mode in the content of consumer returns and study how it is affected by different product return policies.

Driven by the anticipated global stagflation, this straightforward yet novel study examines the cost of inflation as a macroeconomic factor by investigating its influence on stock market growth. Thus, this paper aims to examine the impact of inflation on the probability of initial public offering (IPO) withdrawal decision.

The paper employs a large dataset that covers the period January 1995–December 2019 and comprises 33,536 successful or withdrawn IPOs from 22 nations with various legal and cultural systems. This study applies a probit model utilizing version 15 of Stata statistical software.

This study finds that inflation is substantially and positively correlated with the likelihood of IPO withdrawal. Results of this study show that the IPO withdrawal decision increases up to 90% when the inflation rate climbs by 10%. Multiple robustness tests provide consistent findings.

This study's implications are important for researchers, investment banks, underwriters, issuers, regulators and stock exchanges. When processing IPO proposals, investment banks, underwriters and issuers must consider inflation projections to avoid negative effects, as demonstrated by the findings. In addition, regulators and stock exchanges must be aware of the detrimental impact of inflation on competitiveness in attracting new listings.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to present convincing evidence of a major relationship between IPO withdrawal decision and inflation.

This paper aims to test the hedging ability of housing investment against inflation in Japan and the USA during the period 2000–2020.

This study applies the deep learning method and The exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean (1, 1) model with breaks.

Within the asymmetric framework, it is found that housing returns (HR) can hedge against inflation in both these markets, which mentions that when investing in the housing market in Japan and the USA, investors are compensated for bearing from inflation. This result is consistent with Fisher’s hypothesis. Especially, the empirical results show that the risk-return tradeoff is available in Japan’s housing market and not available in the US housing market. Any signal of a high inflation rate – referred to as “bad news” – may cause a drop in HR in Japan and a raise in the USA.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is one of the first studies using the deep learning method (long short-term memory model) to estimate the expected/unexpected inflation rates.

This study aims to investigate the relationship between risks and the expected return of financial investment because the relationship between them is negative; if the investors agree to the higher level of risk, they have the greater the expected return; therefore, investors always require a degree of proportionality between the risks and returns.

This study applied the standard deviation, variance, coefficient of variation methods and matrix function to measure risks. Besides, the dataset is a return on equity ROE, which is collected in three companies at time series from 2005 to 2020.

When the variance or the standard deviation is higher, the return on the securities is higher, but the securities are a higher risk and vice versa. The results showed risk levels of stocks that are 2.509%, 0.367%, 3.666% and the corresponding return mean of 38.68%, 23.99% and 14.02%.

The results support the portfolio management policy appropriately. This study identifies issues for managers, investors and readers to consider: have a comprehensive solution among microcosmic policies, finance policy, investment policy and other policies to control and balance the relationship between risks and returns; have appropriate policies to regulate funds to stimulate investment in the long term.