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The purpose of this paper is to investigate dynamics of causal interactions and financial risk contagion among BRICS stock markets under rare events.

Two methods are adopted: The new causal inference technique, namely, the Liang causality analysis based on information flow theory and the dynamic causal index (DCI) are used to measure the financial risk contagion.

The causal relationships among the BRICS stock markets estimated by the Liang causality analysis are significantly stronger in the mid-periods of rare events than in the pre- and post-periods. Moreover, different rare events have heterogeneous effects on the causal relationships. Notably, under rare events, there is almost no significant Liang's causality between the Chinese and other four stock markets, except for a few moments, indicating that the former can provide a relatively safe haven within the BRICS. According to the DCIs, the causal linkages have significantly increased during rare events, implying that their connectivity becomes stronger under extreme conditions.

The obtained results not only provide important implications for investors to reasonably allocate regional financial assets, but also yield some suggestions for policymakers and financial regulators in effective supervision, especially in extreme environments.

This paper uses the Liang causality analysis to construct the causal networks among BRICS stock indices and characterize their causal linkages. Furthermore, the DCI derived from the causal networks is applied to measure the financial risk contagion of the BRICS countries under three rare events.

This paper aims to develop a dynamic civil facility degradation prediction model to forecast the reliability performance tendency and remaining useful life under imperfect maintenance based on the inspection records and the maintenance actions.

A real-time hidden Markov chain (HMM) model is proposed in this paper to predict the reliability performance tendency and remaining useful life under imperfect maintenance based on rare failure events. The model assumes a Poisson arrival pattern for facility failure events occurrence. HMM is further adopted to establish the transmission probabilities among stages. Finally, the simulation inference is conducted using Particle filter (PF) to estimate the most probable model parameters. Water seals at the spillway hydraulic gate in a Taiwan's reservoir are used to examine the appropriateness of the approach.

The results of defect probabilities tendency from the real-time HMM model are highly consistent with the real defect trend pattern of civil facilities. The proposed facility degradation prediction model can provide the maintenance division with early warning of potential failure to establish a proper proactive maintenance plan, even under the condition of rare defects.

This model is a new method of civil facility degradation prediction under imperfect maintenance, even with rare failure events. It overcomes several limitations of classical failure pattern prediction approaches and can reliably simulate the occurrence of rare defects under imperfect maintenance and the effect of inspection reliability caused by human error. Based on the degradation trend pattern prediction, effective maintenance management plans can be practically implemented to minimize the frequency of the occurrence and the consequence of civil facility failures.

The authors examined whether stocks with higher left-tail risk measures earn higher or lower futures returns. Specifically, the authors estimate the cross-sectional principal component of a battery of left-tail risk measures and analyze future returns on stocks with high principal component values. In contrast to finance theories on the risk–return trade-off relationship, the study results show that high left-tail risk stocks have lower future returns. This finding is robust to various left-tail risk measures and controls for other risk factors. Moreover, the negative relationship between the left-tail risk and returns is more pronounced for stocks that are actively traded by retail investors. This empirical result is consistent with behavioral theory that when investors make decisions based on experience, they tend to underweight the likelihood of rare events.

The purpose of this study is to propose a methodological approach for modeling catastrophic consequences caused by black swan events, based on complexity science, and framed on Feyerabend’s anarchistic theory of knowledge. An empirical application is presented to illustrate the proposed approach.

Thom’s nonlinear differential equations of morphogenesis are used to develop a theoretical model of the impact of catastrophes on international business (IB). The model is then estimated using real-world data on the performance of multinational airlines during the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic.

The catastrophe model exhibits a remarkable capability to simultaneously capture complex linear and nonlinear relationships. Through empirical estimations and simulations, this approach enables the analysis of IB phenomena under normal conditions, as well as during black swan events.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this study is the first attempt to estimate the impact of black swan events in IB using a catastrophe model grounded in complexity theory. The proposed model successfully integrates the abrupt and profound effects of catastrophes on multinational corporations, offering a critical perspective on the theoretical and practical use of complexity science in IB.

This brief is designed to inform disaster risk reduction and management in Philippine jails and prisons. It draws upon research conducted in nine jails and prisons between July 2015 and January 2016. This research included 44 interviews with stakeholders, including inmates and prisoners, and nine focus groups with inmates and prisoners in different regions of the country. The research indicates that natural hazards are one amongst the many threats that inmates and prisoners face in their everyday life. Natural hazards are significant because inmates and prisoners are particularly vulnerable. Inmates' and prisoners' vulnerability stems from a thread of proximate and root causes that range from insalubrious and overcrowded facilities and limited resourcing from the government, to the neoliberal nature of the Philippine state. However, inmates and prisoners are not helpless “victims” in dealing with natural hazards. They display a wide range of skills, resources and knowledge (i.e. capacities) that are grounded in everyday practices and values reflective of the broader Philippine society. This policy brief finally makes some recommendations for strengthening hazard prevention, fostering vulnerability mitigation, enhancing preparedness, and reinforcing disaster management in Philippine jails and prisons. These recommendations emphasise the contributions of a number of stakeholders, including the active role of inmates and prisoners who are the first line of defence in facing disasters in jails and prisons.

This study aims to examine the impact of lending liquidity on house prices especially during black swan events such as the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–08 and COVID-19. Homeownership is an important goal for many, and house prices are a significant driver of household wealth and the wider economy. This study argues that excessive liquidity from central banks may be driving house price increases, despite negative changes to fundamental drivers. This study contributes to the literature by examining lending liquidity as a driver of house prices and evaluating the efficacy of fiscal policies aimed at boosting liquidity during black swan events.

This study aims to examine the impact of quantitative easing on Australian house prices during back swan events using data from 2004 to 2021. All macroeconomic and financial data are freely available from official sources such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the nation's Central Bank. Methodology wise, given the problematic nature of the data such as a mixed order of integration and the possibility of cointegration among some of the I(1) variables, the auto-regressive distributed lag model was selected given its flexibility and relative lack of assumptions.

The Australian housing market continued to perform well during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the house price index reaching an unprecedented high towards the end of 2021. Research using data from 2004 to 2021 found a consistent positive relationship between house prices and housing finance, as well as population growth and the value of work commenced on residential properties. Other traditional drivers such as the unemployment rate, economic activity, stock prices and income levels were found to be less significant. This study suggests that quantitative easing implemented during the pandemic played a significant role in the housing market's performance.

Given the severity of COVID-19, policymakers have responded with fiscal and monetary measures that are unprecedented in scale and scope. The full implications of these responses are yet to be completely understood. In Australia, the policy interest rate was reduced to a historic low of 0.1%. In the following periods house prices appreciated by over 20%. The efficacy of quantitative easing and associated fiscal policies aimed at boosting liquidity to mitigate the impact of black swan events such as the pandemic has yet to be tested empirically. This study aims to address that paucity in literature by providing such evidence.

Global and interconnected supply chains are increasingly exposed to systemic risks, whereby individual failures propagate across firms, sectors and borders. Systemic risks have emerged from the decisions of individual firms, e.g., outsourcing and buffer reduction, and are now beyond their control. This paper aims to identify appropriate approaches to mitigating those risks.

Systemic risks require analyzing supply chains beyond a dyadic perspective. This study approaches the problem through the lenses of complex systems and network theories. Drawing on the lessons learned from other systemic-risk-prone systems, e.g. energy and financial networks, both in research and practice, this study analyzes the adequate level of governance to monitor and manage systemic risks in supply chains.

The authors argue that governance institutions should be mandated to overview and reduce systemic risks in supply chains from the top down, as central bankers do for the financial system. Using firm-level data and tools from network analysis and system dynamics, they could quantify systemic risks, identify risk-prone interconnections in supply chains and design mitigating measures. This top-down approach would complement the bottom-up supply chain management approach and could help insurers design policies for contingent business interruptions.

Instead of looking at supply chains purely from the firms’ angle, the perspective of insurers and governments is brought in to reflect on the governance of risks.

Based on the scarcity and the fragmented nature of the literature in the field of knowledge management (KM) and crisis, this paper aims to present a systematic literature review of these two constructs, interlinking the literature in KM to the prevention, preparedness, response and recovery (PPRR) phases framework. The output is a critical discussion on the state of the literature in the field, and an overview of avenues for future research.

The methodology adopted in this paper is that of a systematic literature review. Using the Scopus database, this study presents the findings that emerged from 59 publications in the field of KM and crisis.

Through the application of a systematic literature review, this paper categorizes 59 publications on KM according to the different stages comprising a crisis. The implications of each paper are discussed and critically analyzed, acting as the basis of areas for future research.

This paper is the first to offer a systematic review of the literature on KM in contexts of crisis by integrating the literature into a well-defined PPRR framework. Furthermore, the discussions presented in this review may be used by practitioners as a basis/starting point to identify relevant literature on different phases of crisis, while scholars may use this paper to further develop studies in KM and crisis management.

This paper elucidates the role of anger in error management (EM) and organizational learning behaviors. The study explores how anger can catalyze learning, emphasizing its strategic implications.

A double-layered moderated-mediated model was developed and tested using data from 744 Chinese CEOs. The psychometric properties of the survey instrument were rigorously examined through structural equation modeling, and hypotheses were tested using Hayes's PROCESS macros.

The findings reveal that anger is a precursor for recognizing the value of significant errors, leading to a positive association with learning behavior among top management team members. Additionally, the study uncovers a triple interaction effect of anger, EM culture and supply chain disruptions on the value of learning from errors. Extensive experience and positive grieving strengthen the relationship between recognizing value from errors and learning behavior.

This study uniquely integrates affect-cognitive theory and organizational learning theory, examining anger in EM and learning. The authors provide empirical evidence that anger can drive error value recognition and learning. The authors incorporate a more fine-grained approach to leadership when including executive anger as a trigger to learning behavior. Factors like experience and positive grieving are explored, deepening the understanding of emotions in learning. The authors consider both negative and positive emotions to contribute to the complexity of organizational learning.

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between sustainable investments and a series of uncertainties from January 2014 to December 2021, including many economic and political turbulences and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The authors use Rényi’s transfer entropy method, a nonparametric flexible tool that considers both the center distribution and lower quantiles, capturing extreme rare events that give additional insights to analysis.

The authors’ results indicate significant bidirectional information transmissions between the crude oil volatility and sustainability indices. The authors report information flows between the cryptocurrency uncertainty and sustainability indices considering tail events. The results are essential for market participants making decisions during turbulent times.

This paper is carried out for a variety of uncertainty measures and environmental, social and governance (ESG) portfolios of both developed and developing markets. It adds to literature in terms of methodology used. Rényi’s transfer entropy methodology is first used to measure the relationship between uncertainties and ESG investments.